NCAAF: Saturday's plays

Play: Mississippi -1 -105

Time: 7:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

Reasoning: A win in Starkville and an upset of Alabama by Auburn will put the Rebels in the SEC Championship game for the first time. Ole Miss hasn't won at Mississippi State since 2003, the year Eli Manning was a senior. But I like their chances to break that losing skid with junior college transfer Chad Kelly at quarterback. In last week's 38-17 blowout of LSU, Kelly broke Manning's school record for total TDs in a season. Kelly leads the SEC in passing yards (3,504), total offense (3,857 yards) and total TDs (34). Kelly's favorite target, junior Laquon Treadwell, leads the conference in receiving yards (96.4) and he ranks second in school history in receptions (192). Treadwell likely will be the first WR taken in next year's NFL draft. As a team Ole Miss leads the SEC in scoring (40.5). On defense the Rebels broke up 10 passes, forced two fumbles and made two INTs against LSU. The Bulldogs have allowed 81 points in their last two games. Two weeks ago they lost 31-6 at home to Alabama. Ole Miss beat Alabama 43-37 on the road on Sept. 19. The Rebels are 3-2 this season against Top 30 teams and Mississippi State is 1-3 against Top 30 teams. Ole Miss beat the Bulldogs 31-17 in last year's Egg Bowl.



Play: Florida State/Florida over 43 -110

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Reasoning: The Gators' defense is the biggest reason why Florida is 10-1, but on Saturday it will likely be without ends Alex McCalister (ankle) and Jordan Sherit (hamstring) and tackle Jonathan Bullard (knee). That could bode well for Seminoles QB Sean Maguire, who has completed 65 percent of his passes over his last four games. Maguire has three interchangeable targets in Travis Rudolph (51 catches), Kermit Whitfield (51 catches) and Jesus Wilson (45 catches). Florida State also has sophomore tailback Dalvin Cook, who has recorded 17 TDs and a school-record 1,475 yards. The Seminoles have a suspect run defense (143.1) and they gave up 261 rushing yards to Georgia Tech a month ago. The Gators have averaged 31.2 points at home. This is the lowest total Florida State has gone against this season and it's the second-lowest total Florida has seen this season.



Record: 427-346-20 (55.2%)
Bankroll: +145.84%