Early Monday MLB plays

Play: Pittsburgh/Cincinnati over 7.5 +100 (action vs. action)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is not enough runs in this bandbox of a ballpark and for each of these teams' hurlers. Pirates starter Wandy Rodriguez is 8-12 with a 4.26 ERA in 30 career starts against the Reds. He is 0-2 this season with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. Homer Bailey, who received a $105 million contract before the season, has a 7.71 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in two starts. Pittsburgh hits 39 points higher and is scoring about a half-run more per game vs. RH while the Reds are scoring 1.09 more rpg vs. LH. The Pirates have committed multiple errors in three of the last four games.

 

Play: St. Louis -103 (Lynn vs. action)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Milwaukee is running into a buzzsaw tonight having to face Lance Lynn, who should revert to normal after two tough starts to begin the season. Lynn has a 2.53 ERA lifetime (six starts, 10 appearances) against the Brewers. He is 10-0 in 11 career starts in March or April and has a 2.33 ERA at Miller Park. Matt Garza meanwhile has a 3.96 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals. St. Louis owned Milwaukee last season, going 14-5 against them overall and 8-2 in Wisconsin. The Cardinals are scoring 2.1 more runs per game vs. RH.

Record: 44-28-3 (61.1%)