Sunday's MLB plays

Play: Kansas City/Baltimore over 7.5 -105 (Shields vs. Gonzalez)

Time: 1:35 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Royals are hitting 33 points higher and scoring 2.25 more runs per game vs. RH. The Orioles are hitting 48 points higher against RH and are wearing out both types of pitchers, averaging 4.57 rpg overall. In its last 10 games, Baltimore is averaging 5.24 rpg. Its bullpen has been giving up runs too, amassing a 5.52 ERA over the last five games. O's starter Miguel Gonzalez is 1-1 in two lifetime starts, with a 4.97 ERA and a .304 BAA. Jim Reynolds is a fairly neutral and remarkably consistent umpire. His games have averaged between 8.25 and 8.58 runs over the past several years.



Play: Cincinnati/Atlanta over 6.5 -109 (Cueto vs. Teheran)

Time: 1:35 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I might be playing with fire with these pitchers on the hill, but this total for these two teams is too low to pass up. In their last outings against these respective clubs, each of these starters gave up five earned runs. At home the Braves average 4.52 runs per game. Through 11 games, Justin Upton is hitting .486 with six homers and 12 RBI at Turner Field. And Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been that great this season, producing a 3.41 ERA. Meanwhile, the Reds relievers have been even worse. They have a 4.85 ERA overall and a 5.17 ERA on the road. Cincinnati has averaged 4.24 rpg over its last 10 contests.





Play: Colorado +1.5 -155 (De La Rosa vs. Ryu)

Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Against LH, the Rockies are hitting .299 and are scoring 4.57 runs per game and Los Angeles is hitting .206 and scoring 2.84 rpg. Over the last 10 games the Dodgers bullpen has a 4.55 ERA. Los Angeles, who may be without Hanley Ramirez (thumb) today, would be 11-14 if giving 1.5 runs per game. The Rockies would be 18-7 if given 1.5 rpg. Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa has a 2.45 ERA over his last two starts.



Record: 57-37-3 (60.6%)