Play: Toronto/Baltimore over 8 +105 (Hutchison vs. Jimenez)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Toronto has been getting a lot out of its starting pitching of late, but I think with Drew Hutchison toeing the slab Tuesday an implosion is in order. The right-hander has a 4.36 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He's been very good of late, but a closer look reveals that in his last four road starts he has coughed up 20 earned runs in his last 21.2 IP (8.31 ERA). For the Orioles, Ubaldo Jimenez, who only recently was brought back into the rotation after a demotion to the bullpen, has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. In his last three turns he has an 8.36 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. He also was leading the AL in walks before being relegated to relief duty, and he is 0-2 in his home starts this season vs. the Blue Jays. On top of this, the umpire for this contest is Chad Fairchild. His games have averaged 8.93 runs this season and over his last six seasons his games have averaged well over eight runs in each of those campaigns. Go back a few seasons and Fairchild posted years where his games averaged 10.65 runs and 10.97 runs. In 2014, Toronto games have averaged 8.77 runs and Baltimore games have averaged 8.05 runs. Both teams hit better and they each score a half-run more per game against RH. And the Blue Jays bullpen has a 4.13 ERA.
Record: 189-137-8 (58.0%)
Bankroll: +139.89%
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