MLB: Wednesday's play

Play: San Francisco +1.5 -190 (Hudson vs. Guthrie)


Time: 8:07 p.m. ET


Reasoning: The Giants would be 123-55 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Royals would be 73-103 if they gave 1.5 rpg. For our purposes, San Francisco just has to keep it close. But if any squad is going to become the first road team to win a Game 7 since 1979 (nine chances), it will be this one. Tim Hudson has better numbers (3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than Jeremy Guthrie (4.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) this season. Hudson has a 3.53 ERA in 13 career postseason appearances (12 starts) and he has walked just one in 19.1 IP this postseason. Giants relievers have better overall numbers (2.95 ERA vs. 3.27 ERA), are better in the home/away splits (3.15 ERA vs. 3.86 ERA), and they have been better lately as well (3.38 ERA vs. 5.74 ERA in last five games and 2.65 ERA vs. 3.35 ERA in last 10 games). San Francisco also has nearly as good of a road record in 2014 (48-41) than Kansas City has at home (48-40). And I like Buster Posey to get off of the schneid on Wednesday because he is a great player who has just been dormant (4-for-22 in the series with zero extra-base hits in the postseason).





Record: 201-152-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +109.40%