Play: L.A. Clippers/Golden State under 213 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is simply too many points, especially for a game involving a tired Clippers team that played last night. Only two of Los Angeles' games this season featured a higher total. The Warriors have had just three games with totals this high. Clippers road games average 202.6 points. Golden State games average 203 points. The Warriors have held three of their last three opponents under 90 points. The three officials for this game (Ken Mauer, Curtis Blair and Courtney Kirkland) have per-game average scores of between 194 and 200 points. Both squads play better-than-average defense and neither is a good at shooting free throws.
Record: 11-4-1
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Wednesday's NBA Play
Play: Chicago/San Antonio over 187.5 -105
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both of these teams are defensive-oriented, but both may be missing their best defenders. For the Bulls, Kirk Hinrich (hamstring) and Joakim Noah (illness) are listed as questionable. I think they will play after practicing in the morning, but they should be limited. The Spurs are down four players (Tiago Splitter, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green). The home/away scoring splits for these teams favor a higher-scoring game. San Antonio home games average 203.5 points.
Record: 11-3-1
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both of these teams are defensive-oriented, but both may be missing their best defenders. For the Bulls, Kirk Hinrich (hamstring) and Joakim Noah (illness) are listed as questionable. I think they will play after practicing in the morning, but they should be limited. The Spurs are down four players (Tiago Splitter, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green). The home/away scoring splits for these teams favor a higher-scoring game. San Antonio home games average 203.5 points.
Record: 11-3-1
Monday, January 27, 2014
Monday's NHL plays
Plays: Los Angeles +135 and Los Angeles/San Jose over 5 +110
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I expect the Kings to get off the schneid and get a victory and at the same time end the Sharks' six-game winning streak. Los Angeles is 2-0-1 against San Jose this season and the Kings dominated in the last meeting (Dec. 19). Of the Sharks' six straight wins, five were by one goal and only two were against good opponents. Kings captain Dustin Brown hasn't scored in six straight games and he has gotta break through eventually. I say he gets at least one goal tonight. San Jose averages 3.42 goals per game at home and its games average 5.33 goals. Sharks center Joe Pavelski has seven goals and three assists in his last five contests. Neither of these teams is good on the penalty kill.
Record: 10-2-1
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I expect the Kings to get off the schneid and get a victory and at the same time end the Sharks' six-game winning streak. Los Angeles is 2-0-1 against San Jose this season and the Kings dominated in the last meeting (Dec. 19). Of the Sharks' six straight wins, five were by one goal and only two were against good opponents. Kings captain Dustin Brown hasn't scored in six straight games and he has gotta break through eventually. I say he gets at least one goal tonight. San Jose averages 3.42 goals per game at home and its games average 5.33 goals. Sharks center Joe Pavelski has seven goals and three assists in his last five contests. Neither of these teams is good on the penalty kill.
Record: 10-2-1
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Saturday's NBA Play
Play: Atlanta -2 -105
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: If you have to play the second game of a back-to-back, it helps to play against Milwaukee. It particularly helps when the Bucks also are playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Hawks have won eight of the last nine against Milwaukee. They have a huge advantage over the Bucks in scoring, free throw percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio and steals. I expect a big turnaround from Atlanta after they gave up on last night's game and conserved energy when that one was out of reach. Milwaukee has lost 10 of 11 and has the NBA's worst record. The Bucks haven't reached 80 points nine times this season.
Record: 9-2-1
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: If you have to play the second game of a back-to-back, it helps to play against Milwaukee. It particularly helps when the Bucks also are playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Hawks have won eight of the last nine against Milwaukee. They have a huge advantage over the Bucks in scoring, free throw percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio and steals. I expect a big turnaround from Atlanta after they gave up on last night's game and conserved energy when that one was out of reach. Milwaukee has lost 10 of 11 and has the NBA's worst record. The Bucks haven't reached 80 points nine times this season.
Record: 9-2-1
Monday, January 20, 2014
The NBA on MLK Day
Play: Charlotte +4 -105
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The NBA didn't do Toronto any favors with the scheduling, sending them out for today's game less than 24 hours after losing at home to the Lakers on Sunday. The Raptors will take on a Bobcats team that took the Heat to overtime in Miami on Saturday. Toronto looked bad on defense and was just 9-of-30 shooting from behind the arc yesterday. The Raptors have lost six straight at Charlotte and the Bobcats have won both meetings this season.
Play: Atlanta +6 -110
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Miami is 2-3 on its six-game road trip and needed overtime to dispatch Charlotte on Saturday night. This will be its fourth game in six days. The Heat should have Dwyane Wade back for this one but he's been a non-factor in his last two games (eight points in each). The Hawks have had three rest days after their game in London and had three rest days before that. They are excellent at home and have a good bench, as evidenced by 17 points apiece from reserves Shelvin Mack and Mike Scott in their last game. On Dec. 23 visiting Atlanta took Miami to overtime before losing 121-119.
Record: 7-2-1
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The NBA didn't do Toronto any favors with the scheduling, sending them out for today's game less than 24 hours after losing at home to the Lakers on Sunday. The Raptors will take on a Bobcats team that took the Heat to overtime in Miami on Saturday. Toronto looked bad on defense and was just 9-of-30 shooting from behind the arc yesterday. The Raptors have lost six straight at Charlotte and the Bobcats have won both meetings this season.
Play: Atlanta +6 -110
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Miami is 2-3 on its six-game road trip and needed overtime to dispatch Charlotte on Saturday night. This will be its fourth game in six days. The Heat should have Dwyane Wade back for this one but he's been a non-factor in his last two games (eight points in each). The Hawks have had three rest days after their game in London and had three rest days before that. They are excellent at home and have a good bench, as evidenced by 17 points apiece from reserves Shelvin Mack and Mike Scott in their last game. On Dec. 23 visiting Atlanta took Miami to overtime before losing 121-119.
Record: 7-2-1
Saturday, January 18, 2014
NFC Championship Play
Play: San Francisco/Seattle over 39.5 -110
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This total should be 43 or 44, so there are several "free" points right there. Combined these teams average 51 points per game. This is the lowest total that the 49ers have faced this season and the second-lowest that the Seahawks have gone against. Seattle's total of 39 vs. Jacksonville on Sept. 22 (the final score was 45-17) was the only one lower than this 39.5. Now that San Francisco has Michael Crabtree back it's way more dynamic on offense. I like Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch to run wild, to each get 100 yards and I like the final score to add up to around 50.
Record: 6-2-1
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This total should be 43 or 44, so there are several "free" points right there. Combined these teams average 51 points per game. This is the lowest total that the 49ers have faced this season and the second-lowest that the Seahawks have gone against. Seattle's total of 39 vs. Jacksonville on Sept. 22 (the final score was 45-17) was the only one lower than this 39.5. Now that San Francisco has Michael Crabtree back it's way more dynamic on offense. I like Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch to run wild, to each get 100 yards and I like the final score to add up to around 50.
Record: 6-2-1
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
NCAAB Play for Wednesday
Play: Fresno State/San Diego State over 133.5 -110
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Aztecs could blow out the Bulldogs, but, instead of laying the 14, I'll take the safer play of over 133.5. I expect this to be like Fresno State's road contest vs. Boise State, when the teams combined for 162 points, 11 days ago. SDSU shoots 37.8 percent from behind the arc and Fresno State goes for 35.8 percent on threes. Bulldogs games average 146.2 ppg. On the road it's an average of 148.8 ppg. This is a low total, as I expect the Aztecs to get at least 80 and give up at least 60.
Record: 6-1-1
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Aztecs could blow out the Bulldogs, but, instead of laying the 14, I'll take the safer play of over 133.5. I expect this to be like Fresno State's road contest vs. Boise State, when the teams combined for 162 points, 11 days ago. SDSU shoots 37.8 percent from behind the arc and Fresno State goes for 35.8 percent on threes. Bulldogs games average 146.2 ppg. On the road it's an average of 148.8 ppg. This is a low total, as I expect the Aztecs to get at least 80 and give up at least 60.
Record: 6-1-1
Sunday, January 12, 2014
NFL Divisional Playoffs: Sunday
Play: San Francisco +1 -110
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Niners have that look about them. Seven straight wins. In November against Carolina, QB Colin Kaepernick had his worst game ever and San Francisco only lost 10-9. The 49ers also were missing WR Michael Crabtree in that contest. Last week at Green Bay he had eight catches for 125 yards. Tight end Vernon Davis suffered a concussion midway through that meeting, too, and he's healthy now. Defensively the 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. On top of this I think Carolina is overrated. Four of the Panthers' 12 wins required game-winning drives. And WR Steve Smith has a sprained knee and did not look good at Thursday's practice.
Play: Denver -8 -110
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Peyton Manning is no Andy Dalton. He's also getting We Welker back. I expect him to carve up a soft San Diego secondary that was 29th in the NFL against the pass. The Broncos put up the first 600-plus point season in league history. They were wildly consistent too, scoring fewer than 30 points in just three games. Denver is well-rested and healthy. Chargers RB Ryan Matthews (ankle) missed practice this week and is questionable.
Record: 5-0-1
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Niners have that look about them. Seven straight wins. In November against Carolina, QB Colin Kaepernick had his worst game ever and San Francisco only lost 10-9. The 49ers also were missing WR Michael Crabtree in that contest. Last week at Green Bay he had eight catches for 125 yards. Tight end Vernon Davis suffered a concussion midway through that meeting, too, and he's healthy now. Defensively the 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. On top of this I think Carolina is overrated. Four of the Panthers' 12 wins required game-winning drives. And WR Steve Smith has a sprained knee and did not look good at Thursday's practice.
Play: Denver -8 -110
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Peyton Manning is no Andy Dalton. He's also getting We Welker back. I expect him to carve up a soft San Diego secondary that was 29th in the NFL against the pass. The Broncos put up the first 600-plus point season in league history. They were wildly consistent too, scoring fewer than 30 points in just three games. Denver is well-rested and healthy. Chargers RB Ryan Matthews (ankle) missed practice this week and is questionable.
Record: 5-0-1
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Wild Card Weekend
Saturday's Play: Kansas City/Indianapolis over 46 -104
Time: 4:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Here you have two very smart quarterbacks. Andrew Luck threw eight TDs and one INT over the last four games and Alex Smith tossed for 11 TDs vs. one INT on the road this season. Indy's offense is humming and the Chiefs rested ever one of its starters in Week 17. The Colts' defense has been decimated by injuries. Kansas City has allowed an average of 27.7 points over the last seven weeks. And this game will be played indoors, which should help the over.
Sunday's Play: Green Bay +3 -115
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: It's obvious the Packers are a different team with Aaron Rodgers under center. He threw for 318 yards in his first game back after a seven-game layoff. Rodgers has the third-best passer rating in NFL history. I like Green Bay to win straight up, but it's safer taking the free field goal. I expect Rodgers to test cornerback Carlos Rogers (hamstring) who, even if he does play, will be limited.
Record: 4-0
Time: 4:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Here you have two very smart quarterbacks. Andrew Luck threw eight TDs and one INT over the last four games and Alex Smith tossed for 11 TDs vs. one INT on the road this season. Indy's offense is humming and the Chiefs rested ever one of its starters in Week 17. The Colts' defense has been decimated by injuries. Kansas City has allowed an average of 27.7 points over the last seven weeks. And this game will be played indoors, which should help the over.
Sunday's Play: Green Bay +3 -115
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: It's obvious the Packers are a different team with Aaron Rodgers under center. He threw for 318 yards in his first game back after a seven-game layoff. Rodgers has the third-best passer rating in NFL history. I like Green Bay to win straight up, but it's safer taking the free field goal. I expect Rodgers to test cornerback Carlos Rogers (hamstring) who, even if he does play, will be limited.
Record: 4-0
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