Play: Pittsburgh/San Francisco over 7 -120 (Morton vs. Lincecum)
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Charlie Morton is 2-7 with a 4.34 ERA on the road. He has a 5.21 ERA in his last three starts. Tim Lincecum has a 4.42 ERA in his last three turns and is 2-4 with a 4.88 ERA in eight career starts against the Pirates. Games involving these teams average between 7.16 and 8.25 runs both in the overall categories and in the home/away splits. Pittsburgh scores 0.60 more runs per game vs. RH. In their last 10 games vs. RH, the Pirates are hitting .278 and are scoring 5.98 rpg. Pittsburgh 3B Josh Harrison has homered in three straight contests. Games called by umpire Fieldin Culbreth have averaged 7.42 this season and last season and historically that average is much higher.
Record: 156-117-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +89.03%
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
After today, no more plays until at least Aug. 5
Subscribers,
I will be on vacation
backpacking in the Sierras starting later today and will not have
Internet or phone access. You're on your own until I get back. Tuesday, July 29, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
Subscribers have been credited another day on their packages.
Record: 156-117-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +89.03%
Monday, July 28, 2014
MLB: Monday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Play: N.Y. Yankees/Texas over 7.5 -105 (Phelps vs. Darvish)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Yu Darvish has been struggling of late. He has a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and in his last turn, against the Yankees in New York, he allowed two runs on four hits in 4.1 IP of a rain-shortened game. David Phelps has a 4.38 ERA in two starts against the Rangers. Phelps' WHIP for 2014 is 1.34. Yankees 3B Chase Headley hit his first homer on Sunday since joining the club and has at least one hit in all six games since being acquired from San Diego. Games at Globe Life Park have averaged 9.59 runs.
Play: Houston +1.5 +110 (Chavez vs. Oberholtzer)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Astros would be 60-45 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Athletics would be 50-54 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland is hitting .188 and scoring 2.08 rpg in its last five vs. LH. Jesse Chavez's ERA against Houston this season is 3.78. He has a 1.29 WHIP for the year and a 1.38 WHIP in his last three contests. Tonight the A's also will be without Coco Crisp (neck) who is likely headed for the DL. Astros 2B Jose Altuve is hitting a major league-best .344. He also has a nine-game hitting streak.
Record: 155-115-6 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +93.25%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Yu Darvish has been struggling of late. He has a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and in his last turn, against the Yankees in New York, he allowed two runs on four hits in 4.1 IP of a rain-shortened game. David Phelps has a 4.38 ERA in two starts against the Rangers. Phelps' WHIP for 2014 is 1.34. Yankees 3B Chase Headley hit his first homer on Sunday since joining the club and has at least one hit in all six games since being acquired from San Diego. Games at Globe Life Park have averaged 9.59 runs.
Play: Houston +1.5 +110 (Chavez vs. Oberholtzer)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Astros would be 60-45 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Athletics would be 50-54 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland is hitting .188 and scoring 2.08 rpg in its last five vs. LH. Jesse Chavez's ERA against Houston this season is 3.78. He has a 1.29 WHIP for the year and a 1.38 WHIP in his last three contests. Tonight the A's also will be without Coco Crisp (neck) who is likely headed for the DL. Astros 2B Jose Altuve is hitting a major league-best .344. He also has a nine-game hitting streak.
Record: 155-115-6 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +93.25%
MLB: Monday's Tor/Bos
Play: Toronto/Boston under 9 -105 (Dickey vs. Buchholz)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Red Sox have scored just 14 runs over their last six games. On the road the Blue Jays score a half-run less per game and 0.66 less rpg vs. RH on the road. R.A. Dickey has a 4.04 ERA and he has lasted at least six innings in eight straight starts. On April 27 vs. Boston he gave up just one run in 6.1 IP. Clay Buchholz has a 3.43 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his last three starts. Red Sox relievers have a 3.22 ERA over the last 10 games and Toronto's bullpen has a 1.69 ERA in its last five contests. Games involving these teams average between 7.94 and 8.88 runs both overall and in the home/away splits.
Record: 155-115-6 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +93.25%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Red Sox have scored just 14 runs over their last six games. On the road the Blue Jays score a half-run less per game and 0.66 less rpg vs. RH on the road. R.A. Dickey has a 4.04 ERA and he has lasted at least six innings in eight straight starts. On April 27 vs. Boston he gave up just one run in 6.1 IP. Clay Buchholz has a 3.43 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his last three starts. Red Sox relievers have a 3.22 ERA over the last 10 games and Toronto's bullpen has a 1.69 ERA in its last five contests. Games involving these teams average between 7.94 and 8.88 runs both overall and in the home/away splits.
Record: 155-115-6 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +93.25%
Sunday, July 27, 2014
Saturday, July 26, 2014
MLB: Saturday's SD/Atl
Play: San Diego/Atlanta over 6.5 -120 (Despaigne vs. Teheran)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Angel Hernandez, the world's worst umpire, will call the balls and strikes in this one. In addition to being arrogant and inept and a big reason why MLB has expanded its replay system, Hernandez also tends to be an "over" ump. The overs are 11-8 this season and his games have seen an average of 8.43 runs. Last season? The overs were 23-11 with an average of 9.38 runs scored. The Padres have scored 26 runs in their last three games. Today they are expecting back Yonder Alonso (wrist), who has missed 30 games. Julio Teheran has a 6.39 ERA lifetime against San Diego. The Padres score a half-run more per game on the road vs. RH. San Diego's bullpen has a 4.05 ERA in its last five games. And I say that Odrisamer Despaigne, 27, who signed a minor-league free agent contract on May 2, returns to earth starting tonight.
Record: 153-115-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +85.35%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Angel Hernandez, the world's worst umpire, will call the balls and strikes in this one. In addition to being arrogant and inept and a big reason why MLB has expanded its replay system, Hernandez also tends to be an "over" ump. The overs are 11-8 this season and his games have seen an average of 8.43 runs. Last season? The overs were 23-11 with an average of 9.38 runs scored. The Padres have scored 26 runs in their last three games. Today they are expecting back Yonder Alonso (wrist), who has missed 30 games. Julio Teheran has a 6.39 ERA lifetime against San Diego. The Padres score a half-run more per game on the road vs. RH. San Diego's bullpen has a 4.05 ERA in its last five games. And I say that Odrisamer Despaigne, 27, who signed a minor-league free agent contract on May 2, returns to earth starting tonight.
Record: 153-115-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +85.35%
MLB: Saturday's early play
Play: Toronto +1.5 -170 (Hutchison vs. Capuano)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Toronto would be 64-40 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. New York would be 39-63 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Blue Jays have dropped an unbelievable 17 straight at Yankee Stadium, but I like that skid to end here or for Toronto to at least keep it close. In those 17 consecutive losses in the Bronx, the Jays led in 13 of them, so it's really amazing the streak has gone on this long. Today Drew Hutchison gets the chance to break it and he is 4-4 with a 2.97 ERA on the road. Because of injuries New York is going with Chris Capuano, who was acquired on Thursday and who was released earlier this year by Boston after 28 relief appearances and after posting a 4.55 ERA. Capuano hasn't started a game in nearly a year and he has a 4.97 ERA lifetime against Toronto. The Yankees hit 19 points lower and score 0.72 less rpg vs. RH. At home New York's bullpen has a 4.10 ERA.
Record: 153-115-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +85.35%
Friday, July 25, 2014
MLB: Friday's Cle/KC
Play: Cleveland/Kansas City over 8 -120 (Tomlin vs. Ventura)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a low total especially with both squads running out struggling starters. Josh Tomlin is 1-5 in his last seven starts, but at least he has been consistent: he has allowed four or more runs in six of those games. On July 4 the Royals roughed him up big-time (5 R, 10 H, 5.2 IP). Tomlin has a 4.43 ERA overall and a 6.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three outings. Yordano Ventura has a 1.33 WHIP in 2014 and a 5.60 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in his last three turns. Against Boston on Sunday he didn't strike out a batter and was reached for six runs on nine hits in 4.1 IP. The Indians hit 23 points higher and score 1.05 more runs per game vs. RH. The Royals hit 10 points higher and score exactly one more rpg vs. RH. Kansas City relievers have a 4.52 ERA at home, and the Royals lead the AL in stolen bases (84).
Record: 151-115-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +76.99%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a low total especially with both squads running out struggling starters. Josh Tomlin is 1-5 in his last seven starts, but at least he has been consistent: he has allowed four or more runs in six of those games. On July 4 the Royals roughed him up big-time (5 R, 10 H, 5.2 IP). Tomlin has a 4.43 ERA overall and a 6.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three outings. Yordano Ventura has a 1.33 WHIP in 2014 and a 5.60 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in his last three turns. Against Boston on Sunday he didn't strike out a batter and was reached for six runs on nine hits in 4.1 IP. The Indians hit 23 points higher and score 1.05 more runs per game vs. RH. The Royals hit 10 points higher and score exactly one more rpg vs. RH. Kansas City relievers have a 4.52 ERA at home, and the Royals lead the AL in stolen bases (84).
Record: 151-115-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +76.99%
MLB: Friday's Ari/Phi
Play: Philadelphia +1.5 -135 (Miley vs. Kendrick)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 60-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Diamondbacks would be 26-76 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Philadelphia scores 0.30 more rpg vs. LH. Its bullpen is on par Arizona's. Philadelphia has won six of the last eight meetings overall and 13 of the last 16 at Citizens Bank Park. Chase Utley has multiple hits in three of his last four games and Marlon Byrd is on a six-game hitting streak (10-for-27). These teams have the same record (44-58), but my power rankings have the Phils slightly higher.
Record: 151-115-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +76.99%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 60-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Diamondbacks would be 26-76 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Philadelphia scores 0.30 more rpg vs. LH. Its bullpen is on par Arizona's. Philadelphia has won six of the last eight meetings overall and 13 of the last 16 at Citizens Bank Park. Chase Utley has multiple hits in three of his last four games and Marlon Byrd is on a six-game hitting streak (10-for-27). These teams have the same record (44-58), but my power rankings have the Phils slightly higher.
Record: 151-115-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +76.99%
Thursday, July 24, 2014
MLB: Thursday's plays
Play: San Diego/Chi. Cubs over 7 -120 (Ross vs. Jackson)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The wind is technically blowing in from right field as of 6:20 p.m. ET, but it's only a 10-mph wind. When blowing in from right field this season (20 games) the average number of runs scored is 7.9. Since the weather shouldn't matter much, I'd like to point out that the Padres have owned Edwin Jackson over the years. Against the Friars he is 0-5 with a 6.94 ERA in 11 games (nine starts). Jackson has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 2014 and a 9.60 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cubs also used up their bullpen in Wednesday's game. San Diego relievers have a 4.09 ERA in their last 10 games. The over is 6-0 in Chicago's last six home games with totals set between 7 and 8.5 runs. Former Padres prospect Anthony Rizzo is hitting .367 with five homers over his last eight games.
Record: 149-114-6 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +73.52%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The wind is technically blowing in from right field as of 6:20 p.m. ET, but it's only a 10-mph wind. When blowing in from right field this season (20 games) the average number of runs scored is 7.9. Since the weather shouldn't matter much, I'd like to point out that the Padres have owned Edwin Jackson over the years. Against the Friars he is 0-5 with a 6.94 ERA in 11 games (nine starts). Jackson has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 2014 and a 9.60 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cubs also used up their bullpen in Wednesday's game. San Diego relievers have a 4.09 ERA in their last 10 games. The over is 6-0 in Chicago's last six home games with totals set between 7 and 8.5 runs. Former Padres prospect Anthony Rizzo is hitting .367 with five homers over his last eight games.
Play: Cleveland/Kansas City over 7 -120 (Kluber vs. Duffy)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a low total for an American League game. Combined these teams average between 7.95 and 8.87 runs per game both overall and in the home/away splits. The over is 4-0-1 in Corey Kluber's last five starts at Kauffman Stadium. Danny Duffy has a 1.29 WHIP in his last three starts and the Royals score 1.08 more rpg vs. RH. Carlos Santana has hit .313 against K.C. over his career and he homered off of Duffy in their last meeting. Eric Hosmer was hitless Wednesday but prior to that had a 16-game hitting streak. Alex Gordon was 7-for-11 in the last series vs. the White Sox. And Cleveland's Jose Ramirez filled in nicely (two hits, RBI) yesterday for Asdrubal Cabrera (back). At home Royals relievers have a 4.69 ERA.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Milwaukee over 7.5 -120 (Gee vs. Garza)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Combined these teams average between 7.73 and 8.58 runs per game both in the overall category and in the home/away splits. Dillon Gee has a 4.00 ERA in his last four starts and is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA lifetime against the Brewers. In his last outing Gee allowed San Diego four runs in five innings. Matt Garza has a 4.04 ERA on the season and he recorded just one out while giving up five earned runs against Washington in his last start. Curtis Granderson, who missed two games with an illness, is slated to return tonight. Ryan Braun has an 11-game hitting streak and Mark Reynolds homered twice on Wednesday.
Record: 149-114-6 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +73.52%
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
MLB: Other Wednesday plays
Play: Cincinnati +1.5 -155 (Leake vs. Lohse) and Cincinnati/Milwaukee over 7.5 -120 (Leake vs. Lohse)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds would be 72-28 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Brewers would be 40-61 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Kyle Lohse has come back to earth in his last three starts (3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Mike Leake has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in his last three turns. Leake has a 4.43 ERA lifetime against Milwaukee. Both bullpens are suspect and Brewers relievers have a 5.10 ERA in their last 10 tilts. And games umpired by Chris Segal have averaged 10.31 runs.
Play: Kansas City/Chi. White Sox over 7.5 +100 (Shields vs. Quintana)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Tuesday's game should have gone over. In that one the Royals pounded out seven runs on 14 hits and the White Sox stranded 10 runners and were 0-for-6 with RISP. James Shields is 1-2 in his last six games and Chicago tagged him for 10 hits in six innings on June 15. The White Sox score 0.74 more runs per game vs. RH. Jose Quintana is 0-3 in his last three outings and Kansas City hammered him for six runs in six innings on June 13. Chicago's bullpen has allowed 4.71 rpg over its last 10 contests. Games umpired by Andy Fletcher have averaged between 7.68 and 9.00 runs over the last seven seasons.
Play: Colorado +1.5 -115 (Strasburg vs. De La Rosa)
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 55-45 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 43-55 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Washington likely will be without Ryan Zimmerman (hamstring) for this one. And the Nationals average 4.9 rpg with him in the lineup and 3.5 runs with him in the dugout. Stephen Strasburg has just one win in his last seven tries. Jorge De La Rosa is 4-0 in his last five starts. He is 41-14 in his career at Coors Field and he has allowed four or fewer hits in 11 of his 20 turns this season. Colorado scores a half-run more per game vs. RH.
Bankroll: +81.07%
MLB: Wednesday's Cle/Min
Play: Minnesota +1.5 -135 (Bauer vs. Swarzick)
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 60-39 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Indians would be 36-64 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Trevor Bauer has a 1.40 WHIP and is 1-3 on the road with a 5.29 ERA and a .298 BAA. Minnesota scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. Since the All-Star break the Twins are 4-for-41 with RISP, and that can't last forever. Kurt Suzuki has hit .365 since June 30. And Asdrubal Cabrera (back) is listed as day-to-day.
Record: 147-111-6 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +81.07%
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 60-39 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Indians would be 36-64 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Trevor Bauer has a 1.40 WHIP and is 1-3 on the road with a 5.29 ERA and a .298 BAA. Minnesota scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. Since the All-Star break the Twins are 4-for-41 with RISP, and that can't last forever. Kurt Suzuki has hit .365 since June 30. And Asdrubal Cabrera (back) is listed as day-to-day.
Record: 147-111-6 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +81.07%
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Hou/Oak
Play: Houston +1.5 +105 (Oberholtzer vs. Kazmir)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Astros would be 59-40 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Athletics would be 46-52 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Houston pounded out 11 runs on 17 hits in its last game. The Astros hit 50 points higher and score 1.24 more rpg vs. LH. Over the last 10 games Houston is hitting .377 and is scoring 8.78 rpg vs. southpaws. The Astros also have a better bullpen (3.19 ERA vs. 3.33 ERA) over the last 10 contests.
Record: 143-109-6 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +74.63%
MLB: Tuesday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Play: Kansas City -115 (Chen vs. action)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: In his last start Bruce Chen allowed just two runs in 5.1 IP. Against Chicago on April 5, he gave up just one run and struck out seven in 6.1 IP. The White Sox score 0.72 less runs per game vs. LH. Scott Carroll has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He left his last start with a bad back and has coughed up seven runs in seven innings in two career appearances against the Royals. And it might not make a huge difference, but it won't do any good that Chicago's pitching coach, Don Cooper (vertigo), has missed two games and likely will miss this one and more. Kansas City's bullpen has a 0.69 ERA in its last five contests.
Play: Cincinnati +1.5 -185 (Bailey vs. Nelson)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds would be 71-28 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Brewers would be 40-60 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Cincinnati is tied with Baltimore for the fewest errors in the majors (45). Milwaukee has won just four of its last 17 games. Homer Bailey has a 1.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his last three outings. And in the last 10 games Reds relievers have a 2.50 ERA and Brewers relievers have a 4.83 ERA.
Record: 143-109-6 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +74.63%
MLB: Tuesday's 7 p.m. ET plays
Play: Philadelphia +1.5 -150 (Petit vs. Hernandez)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 59-40 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Giants would be 42-57 if they gave 1.5 rpg. San Francisco has to start Yusmeiro Petit again tonight because of an injury to Matt Cain (elbow). Petit, a reliever, has made five starts this season and has a 5.81 ERA in that capacity. Philadelphia has hammered him during his career (7.71 ERA, .327 BAA). Plus, the Giants used five relievers in Monday's game. Roberto Hernandez has a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts.
Play: Texas +1.5 -130 (Martinez vs. Whitley)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 51-48 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Yankees would be 47-61 if they gave 1.5 rpg. New York looked terrible on Monday when it committed five errors. The Yankees will likely be missing Mark Teixeira (back) for this one and perhaps a couple of more games. Yankees starter Chase Whitley has been horrendous (10.12 ERA, 2.44 WHIP) over his last three starts. New York scores a half-run less per game vs. RH and is hitting .219 against them over the last 10 games. Yankees relievers also have a 4.38 ERA at home.
Play: Boston -110 (Peavy vs. action)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Red Sox have won five straight, eight of nine overall and six of their last seven on the road. They destroyed the Blue Jays 14-1 on Monday, and Toronto has lost 10 of 14. Jake Peavy has a 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last appearance against the Jays he allowed just one run on five hits in seven innings. J.A. Happ hasn't started a game since July 7 when he allowed five runs in 4.1 IP. Right before the All-Star break he gave up two runs in 0.2 innings of relief. And on May 20 against Boston, Happ surrendered four runs in five IP. Toronto's bullpen has a 4.50 ERA. Sox hitters Christian Vasquez (seven RBI in five games) and Daniel Nava (10-for-21, 6 runs, in last five games) have been hot.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 59-40 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Giants would be 42-57 if they gave 1.5 rpg. San Francisco has to start Yusmeiro Petit again tonight because of an injury to Matt Cain (elbow). Petit, a reliever, has made five starts this season and has a 5.81 ERA in that capacity. Philadelphia has hammered him during his career (7.71 ERA, .327 BAA). Plus, the Giants used five relievers in Monday's game. Roberto Hernandez has a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts.
Play: Texas +1.5 -130 (Martinez vs. Whitley)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 51-48 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Yankees would be 47-61 if they gave 1.5 rpg. New York looked terrible on Monday when it committed five errors. The Yankees will likely be missing Mark Teixeira (back) for this one and perhaps a couple of more games. Yankees starter Chase Whitley has been horrendous (10.12 ERA, 2.44 WHIP) over his last three starts. New York scores a half-run less per game vs. RH and is hitting .219 against them over the last 10 games. Yankees relievers also have a 4.38 ERA at home.
Play: Boston -110 (Peavy vs. action)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Red Sox have won five straight, eight of nine overall and six of their last seven on the road. They destroyed the Blue Jays 14-1 on Monday, and Toronto has lost 10 of 14. Jake Peavy has a 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last appearance against the Jays he allowed just one run on five hits in seven innings. J.A. Happ hasn't started a game since July 7 when he allowed five runs in 4.1 IP. Right before the All-Star break he gave up two runs in 0.2 innings of relief. And on May 20 against Boston, Happ surrendered four runs in five IP. Toronto's bullpen has a 4.50 ERA. Sox hitters Christian Vasquez (seven RBI in five games) and Daniel Nava (10-for-21, 6 runs, in last five games) have been hot.
Friday, July 18, 2014
On vacation, no plays until at least Tuesday
In Tahoe, roughing it, will be without Internet access until at least Tuesday.
MLB: Friday's Plays
Play: Milwaukee/Washington under 7 +105 (Lohse vs. Strasburg)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be an old-fashioned pitchers' duel. Kyle Lohse has a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He is 6-2 in 11 road starts. Stephen Strasburg has made 11 home starts and he is 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA at Nationals Park. Strasburg has a 2.21 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his last three starts. Washington hits 44 points lower and scores 0.60 less runs per game vs. RH. The Brewers have averaged just 3.54 runs in their last 10. Nationals relievers have a 2.61 ERA.
Play: Cleveland/Detroit under 8.5 -123 (Bauer vs. Sanchez)
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Anibal Sanchez has a 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and a Trevor Bauer has a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts. In the last five games, Tigers relievers have a 0.90 ERA and Indians relievers have a 2.89 ERA. In the last 10 games, Detroit's bullpen has a 0.74 ERA while Cleveland has posted a 1.85 figure.
Play: Miami +1.5 -150 (Bumgarner vs. Eovaldi)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins would be 60-34 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Giants would be 39-56 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Miami scores about a half-run more per game vs. RH. Madison Bumgarner has a 6.87 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. In four career games against the Marlins, he has a 5.09 ERA. Nathan Eovaldi has a 3.61 ERA and he allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings in his last outing. San Francisco has scored two runs or fewer in 12 of its last 20 games. Miami can hit. Giancarlo Stanton has 21 homers and 63 RBI, Casey McGehee is tied for the league lead in hits, Christian Yelich has a 10-game hitting streak and Marcell Ozuna has hit safely in 17 of 18 games. The Giants are hitting just .236 against RH (.226 on the road and .217 in their last contests) and are scoring 0.30 less rpg against them.
Record: 142-107-6 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +79.75%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be an old-fashioned pitchers' duel. Kyle Lohse has a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He is 6-2 in 11 road starts. Stephen Strasburg has made 11 home starts and he is 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA at Nationals Park. Strasburg has a 2.21 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his last three starts. Washington hits 44 points lower and scores 0.60 less runs per game vs. RH. The Brewers have averaged just 3.54 runs in their last 10. Nationals relievers have a 2.61 ERA.
Play: Cleveland/Detroit under 8.5 -123 (Bauer vs. Sanchez)
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Anibal Sanchez has a 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and a Trevor Bauer has a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts. In the last five games, Tigers relievers have a 0.90 ERA and Indians relievers have a 2.89 ERA. In the last 10 games, Detroit's bullpen has a 0.74 ERA while Cleveland has posted a 1.85 figure.
Play: Miami +1.5 -150 (Bumgarner vs. Eovaldi)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins would be 60-34 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Giants would be 39-56 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Miami scores about a half-run more per game vs. RH. Madison Bumgarner has a 6.87 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. In four career games against the Marlins, he has a 5.09 ERA. Nathan Eovaldi has a 3.61 ERA and he allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings in his last outing. San Francisco has scored two runs or fewer in 12 of its last 20 games. Miami can hit. Giancarlo Stanton has 21 homers and 63 RBI, Casey McGehee is tied for the league lead in hits, Christian Yelich has a 10-game hitting streak and Marcell Ozuna has hit safely in 17 of 18 games. The Giants are hitting just .236 against RH (.226 on the road and .217 in their last contests) and are scoring 0.30 less rpg against them.
Record: 142-107-6 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +79.75%
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
No plays for Wednesday or Thursday
Couldn't find any WNBA plays so the first day of possible plays will be Friday when MLB starts up again.
Subscribers have been credited two days.
Record: 142-107-6 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +79.75%
Subscribers have been credited two days.
Record: 142-107-6 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +79.75%
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: NL/AL over 7.5 +102
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Much is being made about the caliber of the starting pitchers on both squads, but those hurlers don't see stacked lineups like these at any other time. For example, the AL's 8th-place hitter is Josh Donaldson, and he has 20 homers. This is not a high total anyway, and, with DHs in the lineup, it makes it all the more enticing. And so does the ballpark. A common misconception is that Target Field is a Pitcher's Park. It's not. It has a Park Factor of 1.124, third-highest in baseball behind only Coors Field and Busch Stadium. Games at Target Field this season have averaged 8.68 runs. The weather report calls for clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees.
Record: 141-107-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Much is being made about the caliber of the starting pitchers on both squads, but those hurlers don't see stacked lineups like these at any other time. For example, the AL's 8th-place hitter is Josh Donaldson, and he has 20 homers. This is not a high total anyway, and, with DHs in the lineup, it makes it all the more enticing. And so does the ballpark. A common misconception is that Target Field is a Pitcher's Park. It's not. It has a Park Factor of 1.124, third-highest in baseball behind only Coors Field and Busch Stadium. Games at Target Field this season have averaged 8.68 runs. The weather report calls for clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees.
Record: 141-107-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Sunday, July 13, 2014
All-Star Break is upon us...
Perhaps I'll have a play for the All-Star Game, perhaps not. Will give a look at the WNBA, which, surprisingly, doesn't have every team in action during each of the dead days of the break. But if I don't find any women's hoops plays that are worth a 3% bankroll bet, well, I'll take those days off too.
Also, I'm vacationing in Lake Tahoe until next week and even after the break I may not have Internet access until my return.
As usual, subscribers will be extended for every day that I don't have plays. No plays for tomorrow (Monday), so subscribers will at least get credited for that day.
Also, starting Wednesday of the following week until Tuesday of the following week, I will be backpacking in the Sierras, where I won't even have electricity. So you're on your own for that week as well. And if I get eaten by a bear, well, this blog will not continue and I apologize for everyone left with days on their subscriptions. Should I survive the trip, it will be business as usual.
Even handicappers deserve vacations. Hope your summers are going well too.
Thanks,
San Diego Capper
Record: 141-107-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Also, I'm vacationing in Lake Tahoe until next week and even after the break I may not have Internet access until my return.
As usual, subscribers will be extended for every day that I don't have plays. No plays for tomorrow (Monday), so subscribers will at least get credited for that day.
Also, starting Wednesday of the following week until Tuesday of the following week, I will be backpacking in the Sierras, where I won't even have electricity. So you're on your own for that week as well. And if I get eaten by a bear, well, this blog will not continue and I apologize for everyone left with days on their subscriptions. Should I survive the trip, it will be business as usual.
Even handicappers deserve vacations. Hope your summers are going well too.
Thanks,
San Diego Capper
Record: 141-107-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
MLB: Sunday's 2:10 p.m. ET games
Play: Kansas City +1.5 -130 (Verlander vs. Chen)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals would be 65-28 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 37-53 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Detroit scores 0.30 less rpg vs. LH. Kansas City scores nearly one more rpg vs. RH. Royals relievers are more than a half-run better than their Detroit counterparts. The Tigers also have learned that they will be without their top hitter, Victor Martinez, who leads the team with 21 homers and a .328 average, until Friday. Kansas City's Eric Hosmer brings a 12-game hitting streak into this one, and Billy Butler has positively worn out Justin Verlander. Butler is 33-for-76 (.434) lifetime against Verlander, who has a 4.84 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP.
Play: Milwaukee -112 (action vs. Peralta)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Brewers to snap out of their funk against Carlos Martinez, who has a 1.36 WHIP in 2014 and a 1.63 WHIP in his last three outings. Milwaukee hits 24 points higher and averages 4.32 runs per game vs. RH. The Cardinals average fewer rpg (3.77) when facing RH. Wily Peralta beat St. Louis in his last start against the Redbirds (April 16), holding them to one run over 6.1 IP. Bullpen-wise these teams are on par with one another.
Bankroll: +62.81%
MLB: Sunday's CWS/Cle
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -136 (Danks vs. Bauer)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 60-35 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Indians would be 32-61 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Cleveland is hitting .241 and is scoring a half-run less per game against LH. Chicago is scoring nearly one run more per game vs. RH. John Danks has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. Trevor Bauer, in his lone career start against the White Sox last season, allowed five runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Rookie Jose Abreu has 29 homers and has a seven-game hitting streak.
Record: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +62.81%
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 60-35 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Indians would be 32-61 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Cleveland is hitting .241 and is scoring a half-run less per game against LH. Chicago is scoring nearly one run more per game vs. RH. John Danks has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. Trevor Bauer, in his lone career start against the White Sox last season, allowed five runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Rookie Jose Abreu has 29 homers and has a seven-game hitting streak.
Record: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +62.81%
Saturday, July 12, 2014
MLB: Saturday's Oak/Sea
Play: Oakland +104 (Chavez vs. action)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jesse Chavez has a 3.06 ERA on the year and in his last start he blanked San Francisco for six innings and struck out nine. He hasn't allowed a homer in six games and there have been only nine against him in 109 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma is 3-4 lifetime against the Athletics. The Mariners hit only .213 and score 3.29 runs per game at home vs. RH. The A's average 4.92 rpg overall and 4.71 on the road. Oakland is 28-20 away from home and Seattle is 23-25 at Safeco.
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jesse Chavez has a 3.06 ERA on the year and in his last start he blanked San Francisco for six innings and struck out nine. He hasn't allowed a homer in six games and there have been only nine against him in 109 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma is 3-4 lifetime against the Athletics. The Mariners hit only .213 and score 3.29 runs per game at home vs. RH. The A's average 4.92 rpg overall and 4.71 on the road. Oakland is 28-20 away from home and Seattle is 23-25 at Safeco.
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
MLB: Saturday's 7 p.m. ET games
Play: Kansas City -129 (action vs. Shields)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals score nearly one more run per game vs. RH and their bullpen is about a half-run better per game than that of Detroit. The Tigers will still be without All-Star DH Victor Martinez (back), who is hitting .328 with 21 homers. Eric Hosmer is healthy for Kansas City, and he has an 11-game hitting streak. He also is 5-for-16 with a homer against Rick Porcello, who has a 4.41 ERA in 16 career starts against the Royals. Porcello was hammered in his last outing, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 5.2 IP. James Shields tossed seven scoreless innings and struck out 10 in his last start.
Play: Pittsburgh -105 (Morton vs. action)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pirates are 1-2 in Charlie Morton's last three starts, but it's not the pitcher's fault. Morton has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in those games and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings. Pittsburgh is scoring nearly a half-run more per game vs. RH and the Reds are scoring nearly one run fewer per game against RH. Pirates relievers also are about a half-run better per game than their Cincinnati counterparts.
Play: Texas +1.5 -105 (Weaver vs. Mikolas)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 49-44 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 43-49 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles scores about a half-run less per game vs. RH. On the road the Angels bullpen has a 4.48 ERA. Miles Mikolas has pitched against Los Angeles twice before, in relief in 2012, and he allowed them just two hits in four innings. Jered Weaver went just two innings in his last outing before leaving the game with a back injury. Adrian Beltre has been hot (15-game hitting streak).
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals score nearly one more run per game vs. RH and their bullpen is about a half-run better per game than that of Detroit. The Tigers will still be without All-Star DH Victor Martinez (back), who is hitting .328 with 21 homers. Eric Hosmer is healthy for Kansas City, and he has an 11-game hitting streak. He also is 5-for-16 with a homer against Rick Porcello, who has a 4.41 ERA in 16 career starts against the Royals. Porcello was hammered in his last outing, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 5.2 IP. James Shields tossed seven scoreless innings and struck out 10 in his last start.
Play: Pittsburgh -105 (Morton vs. action)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pirates are 1-2 in Charlie Morton's last three starts, but it's not the pitcher's fault. Morton has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in those games and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings. Pittsburgh is scoring nearly a half-run more per game vs. RH and the Reds are scoring nearly one run fewer per game against RH. Pirates relievers also are about a half-run better per game than their Cincinnati counterparts.
Play: Texas +1.5 -105 (Weaver vs. Mikolas)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 49-44 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 43-49 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles scores about a half-run less per game vs. RH. On the road the Angels bullpen has a 4.48 ERA. Miles Mikolas has pitched against Los Angeles twice before, in relief in 2012, and he allowed them just two hits in four innings. Jered Weaver went just two innings in his last outing before leaving the game with a back injury. Adrian Beltre has been hot (15-game hitting streak).
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
MLB: Saturday's Min/Col
Play: Minnesota/Colorado over 10.5 -122 (Correia va. Matzek)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at Coors Field average 11.38 runs. The "over" is 33-18 in Angel Hernandez-umpired games over the last year and a half. The Rockies have Carlos Gonzalez back after he missed 35 games (finger). Colorado also has the worst ERA in baseball (5.02). Troy Tulowitzki remains hot (three HR in his last two games) and he leads all of baseball in average (.349) and he is tied for the NL lead in HR (21). Kevin Correia has a 4.79 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Tyler Matzek has a 4.79 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Matzek was rocked for five runs on eight hits in six IP (against the Padres no less!) in his last outing. The Rockies score about a half-run more per game vs. RH. Colorado's bullpen has a 4.49 ERA overall and a 5.18 ERA at home.
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at Coors Field average 11.38 runs. The "over" is 33-18 in Angel Hernandez-umpired games over the last year and a half. The Rockies have Carlos Gonzalez back after he missed 35 games (finger). Colorado also has the worst ERA in baseball (5.02). Troy Tulowitzki remains hot (three HR in his last two games) and he leads all of baseball in average (.349) and he is tied for the NL lead in HR (21). Kevin Correia has a 4.79 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Tyler Matzek has a 4.79 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Matzek was rocked for five runs on eight hits in six IP (against the Padres no less!) in his last outing. The Rockies score about a half-run more per game vs. RH. Colorado's bullpen has a 4.49 ERA overall and a 5.18 ERA at home.
Bankroll: +65.36%
MLB: Saturday's CWS/Cle
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -140 (Carroll vs. McAllister)
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 59-35 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cleveland would be 32-60 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Scott Carroll allowed just one hit to Boston in 6.2 IP in his last start. Against the Indians he hasn't allowed an earned run in nine career innings. Zach McAllister is back in the majors for the first time since May 21. He was sent down because in his last three-major league outings he allowed 17 ER and 18 hits in 7.2 IP. That equates to 19.96 ERA. McAllister's WHIP over that time period was 3.13. The White Sox score nearly one run more per game vs. RH both overall and on the road.
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 59-35 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cleveland would be 32-60 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Scott Carroll allowed just one hit to Boston in 6.2 IP in his last start. Against the Indians he hasn't allowed an earned run in nine career innings. Zach McAllister is back in the majors for the first time since May 21. He was sent down because in his last three-major league outings he allowed 17 ER and 18 hits in 7.2 IP. That equates to 19.96 ERA. McAllister's WHIP over that time period was 3.13. The White Sox score nearly one run more per game vs. RH both overall and on the road.
Record: 135-104-6 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +65.36%
Friday, July 11, 2014
MLB: Friday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Play: Milwaukee -141 (action vs. Gallardo)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Brewers to get well against Joe Kelly, who will make his first start in three months after he sustained a hamstring injury on April 16. Without Yadier Molina (out 8-12 weeks, thumb) calling pitches, I anticipate a rough night for Kelly. Milwaukee is second in the league in runs scored. The Brewers average 4.31 runs against both RH and LH but hit 19 points higher against RH. Yovani Gallardo has a 3.45 ERA on the season and has a 3.46 ERA in his last two starts vs. St. Louis. These bullpens are about equal in terms of performance.
Record: 134-102-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +71.32%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Brewers to get well against Joe Kelly, who will make his first start in three months after he sustained a hamstring injury on April 16. Without Yadier Molina (out 8-12 weeks, thumb) calling pitches, I anticipate a rough night for Kelly. Milwaukee is second in the league in runs scored. The Brewers average 4.31 runs against both RH and LH but hit 19 points higher against RH. Yovani Gallardo has a 3.45 ERA on the season and has a 3.46 ERA in his last two starts vs. St. Louis. These bullpens are about equal in terms of performance.
Record: 134-102-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +71.32%
MLB: Friday's 7 p.m. ET plays
Play: N.Y. Yankees/Baltimore over 8.5 +100 (Kuroda vs. Gonzalez)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: With the potential gas cans out there tonight (Hiroki Kuroda and Miguel Gonzalez), I wouldn't be surprised if just one of these teams scores nine or more runs. Kuroda has a 4.20 ERA in 2014 and a 1.45 WHIP in his last three starts. Gonzalez has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP on the season and a 1.87 WHIP in his last three starts. The Orioles score 0.34 more runs per game vs. RH. The Yankees bullpen has a 3.88 ERA overall and a 5.82 ERA in its last five games.
Play: N.Y. Mets -119 (action vs. Wheeler)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Zack Wheeler is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in four career starts against Miami. In his last turn against the Marlins, Wheeler tossed a three-hitter. Three of his last four starts have been gems. Miami scores 0.31 less runs per game vs. RH and 0.60 less rpg in road contests. The Mets also have a better bullpen and they have been raking RH of late (5.25 rpg).
Record: 134-102-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +71.32%
Thursday, July 10, 2014
MLB: Thursday's LAA/Tex
Play: Texas +1.5 -140 (Santiago vs. Lewis)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 49-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 41-49 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Hector Santiago would be in the bullpen if Los Angeles didn't have to start him because of an injury to Jered Weaver. Santiago has a 5.65 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his last three starts. He allowed Texas five runs on seven hits on May 2. Colby Lewis has improved tremendously of late (3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in last three outings). Adrian Beltre has hit safely in 13 straight games. The Rangers score 1.5 more rpg vs. LH. The Angels hit 23 points lower and score a half-run less per game against RH.
Record: 133-101-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +70.80%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 49-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 41-49 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Hector Santiago would be in the bullpen if Los Angeles didn't have to start him because of an injury to Jered Weaver. Santiago has a 5.65 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his last three starts. He allowed Texas five runs on seven hits on May 2. Colby Lewis has improved tremendously of late (3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in last three outings). Adrian Beltre has hit safely in 13 straight games. The Rangers score 1.5 more rpg vs. LH. The Angels hit 23 points lower and score a half-run less per game against RH.
Record: 133-101-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +70.80%
MLB: Thursday's Pit/StL
Play: Pittsburgh +110 (Volquez vs. Miller)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edinson Volquez has been phenomenal over his last three starts (0.86 ERA). Shelby Miller has been the opposite over that same time period (8.31 ERA, 2.38 WHIP). Miller also is 2-5 lifetime against the Pirates. The Cardinals likely will be without Yadier Molina (thumb) for this one. Pittsburgh scores a half-run more per game vs. RH and St. Louis scores a third-run less per game vs. RH. Cardinals relievers have a 5.87 ERA in their last five games.
Record: 133-101-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +70.80%
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edinson Volquez has been phenomenal over his last three starts (0.86 ERA). Shelby Miller has been the opposite over that same time period (8.31 ERA, 2.38 WHIP). Miller also is 2-5 lifetime against the Pirates. The Cardinals likely will be without Yadier Molina (thumb) for this one. Pittsburgh scores a half-run more per game vs. RH and St. Louis scores a third-run less per game vs. RH. Cardinals relievers have a 5.87 ERA in their last five games.
Record: 133-101-6 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +70.80%
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: New York/Cleveland under 8.5 -120 (McCarthy vs. Tomlin)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Neither squad has seen the respective opposing pitcher since 2012. Brandon McCarthy will get his first start as a Yankee, and he was impressive during his last two turns with Arizona. He allowed just three runs in 12.2 IP in those games. New York also should miss Carlos Beltran (knee) tonight, and that would be the third consecutive contest that he has missed. Josh Tomlin has a 1.16 WHIP on the year and a 1.12 WHIP in his last three starts. Two outings ago he tossed a one-hitter. Bullpen-wise, the Yankees have a 2.94 ERA on the road and the Indians have a 3.11 mark at home. In the last five games, New York relievers have a 2.60 ERA and Cleveland's crew has a 0.59 figure (not a misprint). Over the last 10 games, the Yankees bullpen has a 2.78 ERA and the Indians have a 0.91 ERA. New York scores 0.57 less runs per game vs. RH and on the road against RH it scores 2.35 less rpg than vs. LH.
Record: 133-100-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +76.08%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Neither squad has seen the respective opposing pitcher since 2012. Brandon McCarthy will get his first start as a Yankee, and he was impressive during his last two turns with Arizona. He allowed just three runs in 12.2 IP in those games. New York also should miss Carlos Beltran (knee) tonight, and that would be the third consecutive contest that he has missed. Josh Tomlin has a 1.16 WHIP on the year and a 1.12 WHIP in his last three starts. Two outings ago he tossed a one-hitter. Bullpen-wise, the Yankees have a 2.94 ERA on the road and the Indians have a 3.11 mark at home. In the last five games, New York relievers have a 2.60 ERA and Cleveland's crew has a 0.59 figure (not a misprint). Over the last 10 games, the Yankees bullpen has a 2.78 ERA and the Indians have a 0.91 ERA. New York scores 0.57 less runs per game vs. RH and on the road against RH it scores 2.35 less rpg than vs. LH.
Record: 133-100-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +76.08%
Monday, July 7, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
Couldn't find anything. Good luck if you found it. Beware of mooses (see yesterday's Bal/Was u7.5 and Pit +1.5).
Record: 133-100-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +76.08%
Record: 133-100-6 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +76.08%
MLB: Monday's Pit/StL play
Play: Pittsburgh +1.5 -137 (Morton vs. Wainwright)
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pirates would be 62-26 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Cardinals would be 35-54 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Pittsburgh has won 12 of its last 15. Andrew McCutchen is 11-for-21 in his last five games and he is hitting .382 against Adam Wainwright. Charlie Morton has recorded four quality starts in his last five. He has a 3.30 ERA. The Bucs have the better bullpen and St. Louis relievers have a 6.89 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 130-97-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +78.04%
MLB: Monday's 7 p.m. ET plays
Play: Baltimore/Washington under 7.5 -115 (Tillman vs. Strasburg)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Tillman has a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts. Stephen Strasburg is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA at home. In his only appearance vs. the Orioles (in 2012), he allowed just one earned run in five innings. The Nationals lead the majors in ERA (3.03) and they haven't committed an error in 11 consecutive games. Washington also hits 49 points lower and scores 0.67 less runs per game vs. RH.
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -115 (Carroll vs. Buchholz)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 55-34 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Boston would be 24-64 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Red Sox have lost five of their last six. Scott Carroll has struggled (5.37 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), but he hasn't been as bad as Clay Buchholz (6.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP). Boston has never seen Carroll and the White Sox score a half-run more per game vs. RH. Buchholz has a 4.10 ERA in seven starts against Chicago. And Jose Abreu has hit safely in 19 of his last 20 games.
Play: N.Y. Mets +1.5 -140 (Minor vs. Matsuzaka)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: New York would be 59-29 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Atlanta would be 32-56 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Mike Minor hasn't won since May 19 and last Tuesday he allowed the Mets four runs and nine hits in 4.1 IP. He gave up two homers in that game, has allowed eight homers in his last eight games and has a 5.21 ERA in his last three outings. Since June 17, New York has 19 homers, best in the National League. Daisuke Matsuzaka has a 3.72 ERA. The Braves score nearly one less rpg vs. RH. Mets relievers are on par with Atlanta's crew, and New York's bullpen has a 1.97 ERA in its last 10 games.
Play: Chi. Cubs +1.5 -140 (Jackson vs. Leake)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 52-34 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cincinnati would be 38-59 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Edwin Jackson was quite effective in his last start (at Boston) and is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA in his career against the Reds. Mike Leake allowed three runs and 11 hits in 5.2 innings in his last turn (against San Diego!). Nate Schierholtz is 9-for-19 against Leake and Justin Ruggiano is 16-for-35 over his last nine games. Cincinnati could be without first baseman Joey Votto, who sat out Sunday and reportedly is expected to head to the disabled list with a strained left quadriceps. Jay Bruce has been struggling too, as he was 0-for-26 heading into Sunday's game. The Reds are scoring nearly one less rpg vs. RH.
Play: Kansas City/Tampa Bay under 7 +105 (Shields vs. Odorizzi)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Royals hurler James Shields allowed just two runs over seven innings in his only start (April 30, 2013) against his former team. Jake Odorizzi has struck out 101 in 88.1 IP. He has a 2.00 ERA in his last three outings. The Rays score a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. Kansas City has averaged just 3.40 runs in its last five games. Both bullpens have been effective of late, posting sub-3.00 ERAs over their last 10 games.
Record: 130-97-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +78.04%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Tillman has a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts. Stephen Strasburg is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA at home. In his only appearance vs. the Orioles (in 2012), he allowed just one earned run in five innings. The Nationals lead the majors in ERA (3.03) and they haven't committed an error in 11 consecutive games. Washington also hits 49 points lower and scores 0.67 less runs per game vs. RH.
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -115 (Carroll vs. Buchholz)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 55-34 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Boston would be 24-64 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Red Sox have lost five of their last six. Scott Carroll has struggled (5.37 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), but he hasn't been as bad as Clay Buchholz (6.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP). Boston has never seen Carroll and the White Sox score a half-run more per game vs. RH. Buchholz has a 4.10 ERA in seven starts against Chicago. And Jose Abreu has hit safely in 19 of his last 20 games.
Play: N.Y. Mets +1.5 -140 (Minor vs. Matsuzaka)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: New York would be 59-29 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Atlanta would be 32-56 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Mike Minor hasn't won since May 19 and last Tuesday he allowed the Mets four runs and nine hits in 4.1 IP. He gave up two homers in that game, has allowed eight homers in his last eight games and has a 5.21 ERA in his last three outings. Since June 17, New York has 19 homers, best in the National League. Daisuke Matsuzaka has a 3.72 ERA. The Braves score nearly one less rpg vs. RH. Mets relievers are on par with Atlanta's crew, and New York's bullpen has a 1.97 ERA in its last 10 games.
Play: Chi. Cubs +1.5 -140 (Jackson vs. Leake)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 52-34 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cincinnati would be 38-59 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Edwin Jackson was quite effective in his last start (at Boston) and is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA in his career against the Reds. Mike Leake allowed three runs and 11 hits in 5.2 innings in his last turn (against San Diego!). Nate Schierholtz is 9-for-19 against Leake and Justin Ruggiano is 16-for-35 over his last nine games. Cincinnati could be without first baseman Joey Votto, who sat out Sunday and reportedly is expected to head to the disabled list with a strained left quadriceps. Jay Bruce has been struggling too, as he was 0-for-26 heading into Sunday's game. The Reds are scoring nearly one less rpg vs. RH.
Play: Kansas City/Tampa Bay under 7 +105 (Shields vs. Odorizzi)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Royals hurler James Shields allowed just two runs over seven innings in his only start (April 30, 2013) against his former team. Jake Odorizzi has struck out 101 in 88.1 IP. He has a 2.00 ERA in his last three outings. The Rays score a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. Kansas City has averaged just 3.40 runs in its last five games. Both bullpens have been effective of late, posting sub-3.00 ERAs over their last 10 games.
Record: 130-97-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +78.04%
Sunday, July 6, 2014
MLB: Sunday's Tor/Oak
Play: Toronto/Oakland over 7.5 -110 (Hutchinson vs. Samardzija)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Welcome to the American League, Jeff Samardzija, these teams can hit over here. Samardzija is winless in his last four starts and in his last outing he surrendered six runs in five innings. The Blue Jays hit 39 points higher and score a half-run more per game vs. RH. Oakland also hits better and scores more vs. RH. Drew Hutchinson has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over his last three starts. Toronto's bullpen has a 4.36 ERA, and relievers for both teams have higher ERAs in their home/away splits than they do overall. Games for umpire Gabe Morales have averaged 9.00 runs this season.
Record: 129-95-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +84.62%
MLB: Sunday's Hou/LAA
Play: Houston +1.5 -105 (McHugh vs. Richards)
Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Astros would be 52-37 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 39-47 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Colin McHugh has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He has a 1.50 ERA in two outings against Los Angeles this season and has struck out 11 in 12 innings. The Angels are hitting 21 points lower and are scoring 0.33 less rpg vs. RH. L.A.'s bullpen has a 4.06 ERA. Garrett Richards has a 4.11 ERA in eight career games (five starts) against Houston.
Record: 129-95-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +84.62%
MLB: Sunday's NYY/Min
Play: NYY -123 (Kuroda vs. action)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Yankees have owned Minnesota. Had Francisco Cervilli not made a throwing error in Saturday's tilt, New York may have well celebrated its eighth straight victory in Minnesota. The Yankees are 39-14 in the last 53 meetings and are 38-15 in the last 52 as visitors in the series. Hiroki Kuroda has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last eight appearances. Josh Willingham and Kendrys Morales are a combined 1-for-20 lifetime against Kuroda. Ricky Nolasco has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last three starts and has a 5.49 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 2014. New York's bullpen has a 2.85 ERA on the road.
Record: 129-95-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +84.62%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Yankees have owned Minnesota. Had Francisco Cervilli not made a throwing error in Saturday's tilt, New York may have well celebrated its eighth straight victory in Minnesota. The Yankees are 39-14 in the last 53 meetings and are 38-15 in the last 52 as visitors in the series. Hiroki Kuroda has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last eight appearances. Josh Willingham and Kendrys Morales are a combined 1-for-20 lifetime against Kuroda. Ricky Nolasco has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last three starts and has a 5.49 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 2014. New York's bullpen has a 2.85 ERA on the road.
Record: 129-95-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +84.62%
Saturday, July 5, 2014
MLB: Saturday's late play
Play: Toronto +127 (Buehrle vs. action)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Mark Buehrle has a 2.50 ERA and the Blue Jays are 12-5 in his starts this season. Over his career he has a 3.63 ERA vs. the Athletics. Scott Kazmir exited his last start early after suffering a leg cramp. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in his last three outings. Another guy who is hurt is Brandon Moss. He likely will miss this contest after spraining his ankle during Friday's tilt. Oakland's bullpen has a 6.00 ERA in its last five games and Toronto has a 3.48 mark during that time period. The A's are hitting 74 points lower and are scoring one less run per game vs. LH in the last 10.
Record: 128-94-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +86.72%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Mark Buehrle has a 2.50 ERA and the Blue Jays are 12-5 in his starts this season. Over his career he has a 3.63 ERA vs. the Athletics. Scott Kazmir exited his last start early after suffering a leg cramp. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in his last three outings. Another guy who is hurt is Brandon Moss. He likely will miss this contest after spraining his ankle during Friday's tilt. Oakland's bullpen has a 6.00 ERA in its last five games and Toronto has a 3.48 mark during that time period. The A's are hitting 74 points lower and are scoring one less run per game vs. LH in the last 10.
Record: 128-94-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +86.72%
MLB: Saturday's early play
Play: Boston -160 (action vs. Lester)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This one was postponed from Friday, but nothing else has changed. And my analysis stays the same... Jon Lester is in a contract year and is, not surprisingly, performing like a guy who wants to get paid. He has gone 5-1 in his last seven starts, has a 1.23 ERA and a oh-point-82 WHIP in his last three starts, has 2.92 ERA on the season, and also has a 2.92 ERA (and a 15-4 record) in 26 career starts against the Orioles. His counterpart, Miguel Gonzalez, hasn't worked more than five innings in his last three starts, which have come since his return from an oblique injury. In his last three turns Gonzalez has a 6.14 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP. In 2014 Gonzalez has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The Red Sox score about a half-run more per game vs. RH at Fenway. They also banged out 16 hits in their last game.
Record: 128-94-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +86.72%
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This one was postponed from Friday, but nothing else has changed. And my analysis stays the same... Jon Lester is in a contract year and is, not surprisingly, performing like a guy who wants to get paid. He has gone 5-1 in his last seven starts, has a 1.23 ERA and a oh-point-82 WHIP in his last three starts, has 2.92 ERA on the season, and also has a 2.92 ERA (and a 15-4 record) in 26 career starts against the Orioles. His counterpart, Miguel Gonzalez, hasn't worked more than five innings in his last three starts, which have come since his return from an oblique injury. In his last three turns Gonzalez has a 6.14 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP. In 2014 Gonzalez has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The Red Sox score about a half-run more per game vs. RH at Fenway. They also banged out 16 hits in their last game.
Record: 128-94-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +86.72%
Friday, July 4, 2014
MLB: Friday's KC/Cle play
Play: Cleveland -105 (action vs. Tomlin)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Josh Tomlin tossed a one-hitter in his last start, striking out 11. He is 5-2 lifetime against the Royals, and he has a 3.78 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 2014. Yodano Ventura has a 1.27 WHIP on the season and a 1.39 WHIP in his last three starts. Bullpen-wise the Indians are better overall (3.24 ERA vs. 3.57 ERA), and over the last five games Cleveland relievers have a 1.26 ERA. The Indians are 23-15 at home.
Record: 128-93-6 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +92.50%
MLB: Friday's early play
Play: Boston -157 (Gonzalez vs. Lester)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jon Lester is in a contract year and is, not surprisingly, performing like a guy who wants to get paid. He has gone 5-1 in his last seven starts, has a 1.23 ERA and a oh-point-82 WHIP in his last three starts, has 2.92 ERA on the season, and also has a 2.92 ERA (and a 15-4 record) in 26 career starts against the Orioles. His counterpart on Friday, Miguel Gonzalez, hasn't worked more than five innings in his last three starts, which have come since his return from an oblique injury. In his last three turns Gonzalez has a 6.14 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP. In 2014 Gonzalez has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The Red Sox score about a half-run more per game vs. RH at Fenway. They also banged out 16 hits in their last game.
Record: 128-93-6 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +92.50%
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jon Lester is in a contract year and is, not surprisingly, performing like a guy who wants to get paid. He has gone 5-1 in his last seven starts, has a 1.23 ERA and a oh-point-82 WHIP in his last three starts, has 2.92 ERA on the season, and also has a 2.92 ERA (and a 15-4 record) in 26 career starts against the Orioles. His counterpart on Friday, Miguel Gonzalez, hasn't worked more than five innings in his last three starts, which have come since his return from an oblique injury. In his last three turns Gonzalez has a 6.14 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP. In 2014 Gonzalez has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The Red Sox score about a half-run more per game vs. RH at Fenway. They also banged out 16 hits in their last game.
Record: 128-93-6 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +92.50%
Thursday, July 3, 2014
MLB: Thursday's plays
Play: Texas -117 (Darvish vs. Chen)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers rake LH, scoring 5.34 runs per game against them. That figure is 1.67 runs better than vs. RH. In the last five games the Texas bullpen has a 2.84 ERA and Orioles relievers have a 4.91 ERA. Yu Darvish has been brilliant this season. He has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. In his last turn he didn't allow a run for the sixth time in 2014. Baltimore has seen Darvish just once, in a 2012 playoff game where he allowed two ER in 6.2 IP. Wei-Yin Chen suffered the shortest outing of his career on Saturday against Tampa Bay (5 R, 7 H in 3.1 IP). Chen has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this year.
Play: Arizona/Pittsburgh over 7.5 -115 (McCarthy vs. Worley)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at PNC Park have averaged 8.44 runs. Contests called by umpire D.J. Reyburn have averaged between 8.69 and 8.82 runs over the past two and a half seasons. The Pirates have averaged 5.34 runs in their last 10 games. Rookie Gregory Polanco has reached base in 19 of 21 games and Starling Marte has hit safely in each of his 12 career contests against the Diamondbacks. Paul Goldschmidt is 5-for-7 in the series. Brandon McCarthy has been a gas can this year. He has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Against Pittsburgh he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed the Pirates to hit .304 against him. Vance Worley has pitched over his head this season and he's made just three starts. Combining 2012 and '13, he had a McCarthy-like ERA of 5.00 in 33 starts.
Record: 127-93-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +87.60%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers rake LH, scoring 5.34 runs per game against them. That figure is 1.67 runs better than vs. RH. In the last five games the Texas bullpen has a 2.84 ERA and Orioles relievers have a 4.91 ERA. Yu Darvish has been brilliant this season. He has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. In his last turn he didn't allow a run for the sixth time in 2014. Baltimore has seen Darvish just once, in a 2012 playoff game where he allowed two ER in 6.2 IP. Wei-Yin Chen suffered the shortest outing of his career on Saturday against Tampa Bay (5 R, 7 H in 3.1 IP). Chen has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this year.
Play: Arizona/Pittsburgh over 7.5 -115 (McCarthy vs. Worley)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at PNC Park have averaged 8.44 runs. Contests called by umpire D.J. Reyburn have averaged between 8.69 and 8.82 runs over the past two and a half seasons. The Pirates have averaged 5.34 runs in their last 10 games. Rookie Gregory Polanco has reached base in 19 of 21 games and Starling Marte has hit safely in each of his 12 career contests against the Diamondbacks. Paul Goldschmidt is 5-for-7 in the series. Brandon McCarthy has been a gas can this year. He has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Against Pittsburgh he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed the Pirates to hit .304 against him. Vance Worley has pitched over his head this season and he's made just three starts. Combining 2012 and '13, he had a McCarthy-like ERA of 5.00 in 33 starts.
Record: 127-93-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +87.60%
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's later plays
Play: Chi. Cubs/Boston over 9 +110 (Wood vs. Workman)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Travis Wood has a 4.52 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He walked five in 6.2 IP in his last outing, and, in his last game against an AL team, he was bludgeoned for eight runs in four innings against the White Sox. Brandon Workman allowed four runs over seven innings and two homers in his last start. Boston's bullpen has a 4.26 ERA in its last 10 games.
Plays: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -132 (Danks vs. Skaggs)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 51-34 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 37-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. John Danks has posted six quality starts in his last seven outings. He has a 3.20 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles. Chicago 1B Jose Abreu has a 16-game hitting streak and has seven homers over that period. Angels starter Tyler Skaggs is making his first start since coming off of the DL. He has a 4.34 ERA on the year and a 1.61 WHIP in his last three starts.
Play: San Francisco +1.5 -130 (Wainwright vs. Vogelsong)
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Here you're getting a good team plus a run and a hook, at home, in a pitchers park, for a great price. The Giants would be 60-23 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Cardinals would be 33-51 if they gave 1.5 rpg. San Francisco nailed Adam Wainwright for seven runs on eight hits in 4.1 IP on May 30. Ryan Vogelsong is coming off of a strong performance in his last start (6 IP, 1 R, 7 K vs. Cincinnati). St. Louis is 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position over the last three games and has scored a total of four runs over its last five contests.
Record: 123-92-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Travis Wood has a 4.52 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He walked five in 6.2 IP in his last outing, and, in his last game against an AL team, he was bludgeoned for eight runs in four innings against the White Sox. Brandon Workman allowed four runs over seven innings and two homers in his last start. Boston's bullpen has a 4.26 ERA in its last 10 games.
Plays: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -132 (Danks vs. Skaggs)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 51-34 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 37-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. John Danks has posted six quality starts in his last seven outings. He has a 3.20 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles. Chicago 1B Jose Abreu has a 16-game hitting streak and has seven homers over that period. Angels starter Tyler Skaggs is making his first start since coming off of the DL. He has a 4.34 ERA on the year and a 1.61 WHIP in his last three starts.
Play: San Francisco +1.5 -130 (Wainwright vs. Vogelsong)
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Here you're getting a good team plus a run and a hook, at home, in a pitchers park, for a great price. The Giants would be 60-23 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Cardinals would be 33-51 if they gave 1.5 rpg. San Francisco nailed Adam Wainwright for seven runs on eight hits in 4.1 IP on May 30. Ryan Vogelsong is coming off of a strong performance in his last start (6 IP, 1 R, 7 K vs. Cincinnati). St. Louis is 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position over the last three games and has scored a total of four runs over its last five contests.
Record: 123-92-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
MLB: Wednesday's Col/Was
Play: Colorado +1.5 -105 (Matzek vs. Fister)
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 48-36 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 36-47 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Colorado scores a half-run more per game against RH. Tyler Matzek showed off his ability in his last start at Milwaukee when he allowed just one run on five hits over six innings.
Record: 123-92-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 48-36 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 36-47 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Colorado scores a half-run more per game against RH. Tyler Matzek showed off his ability in his last start at Milwaukee when he allowed just one run on five hits over six innings.
Record: 123-92-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
MLB: Wednesday's Cin/SD
Play: San Diego +1.5 -145 (Cueto vs. Ross)
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres would be 46-38 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Reds would be 29-54 if they gave 1.5 rpg. San Diego has won three straight and it banged out eight runs on 16 hits Tuesday night. Johnny Cueto has a 4.62 ERA in six lifetime starts against the Padres. Tyson Ross has a 1.13 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati. The Reds score 0.63 less rpg vs. RH. San Diego's bullpen is nearly two rpg better than that of Cincinnati. Padres relievers have a 0.70 ERA over their last 10 games.
Record: 123-92-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres would be 46-38 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Reds would be 29-54 if they gave 1.5 rpg. San Diego has won three straight and it banged out eight runs on 16 hits Tuesday night. Johnny Cueto has a 4.62 ERA in six lifetime starts against the Padres. Tyson Ross has a 1.13 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati. The Reds score 0.63 less rpg vs. RH. San Diego's bullpen is nearly two rpg better than that of Cincinnati. Padres relievers have a 0.70 ERA over their last 10 games.
Record: 123-92-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +74.51%
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Play
Play: Texas +1.5 -168 (Martinez vs. McFarland)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 47-35 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Orioles would be 29-53 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Texas will face T.J. McFarland, who is making his second career start and his first this season. The Rangers score 1.79 more rpg vs. LH. Baltimore has scored 1.2 fewer rpg vs. RH over its last 10 contests and 3.26 less rpg against RH in its last five. The Orioles will again be without Manny Machado (suspension). Last night they had Chris Davis start at third base (his first start at that position since 2011). Texas 3B Adrian Beltre (15-for-27 in last eight games) has been hot.
Record: 123-91-6 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +79.91%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 47-35 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Orioles would be 29-53 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Texas will face T.J. McFarland, who is making his second career start and his first this season. The Rangers score 1.79 more rpg vs. LH. Baltimore has scored 1.2 fewer rpg vs. RH over its last 10 contests and 3.26 less rpg against RH in its last five. The Orioles will again be without Manny Machado (suspension). Last night they had Chris Davis start at third base (his first start at that position since 2011). Texas 3B Adrian Beltre (15-for-27 in last eight games) has been hot.
Record: 123-91-6 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +79.91%
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