Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Tillman has a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts. Stephen Strasburg is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA at home. In his only appearance vs. the Orioles (in 2012), he allowed just one earned run in five innings. The Nationals lead the majors in ERA (3.03) and they haven't committed an error in 11 consecutive games. Washington also hits 49 points lower and scores 0.67 less runs per game vs. RH.
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -115 (Carroll vs. Buchholz)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 55-34 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Boston would be 24-64 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Red Sox have lost five of their last six. Scott Carroll has struggled (5.37 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), but he hasn't been as bad as Clay Buchholz (6.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP). Boston has never seen Carroll and the White Sox score a half-run more per game vs. RH. Buchholz has a 4.10 ERA in seven starts against Chicago. And Jose Abreu has hit safely in 19 of his last 20 games.
Play: N.Y. Mets +1.5 -140 (Minor vs. Matsuzaka)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: New York would be 59-29 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Atlanta would be 32-56 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Mike Minor hasn't won since May 19 and last Tuesday he allowed the Mets four runs and nine hits in 4.1 IP. He gave up two homers in that game, has allowed eight homers in his last eight games and has a 5.21 ERA in his last three outings. Since June 17, New York has 19 homers, best in the National League. Daisuke Matsuzaka has a 3.72 ERA. The Braves score nearly one less rpg vs. RH. Mets relievers are on par with Atlanta's crew, and New York's bullpen has a 1.97 ERA in its last 10 games.
Play: Chi. Cubs +1.5 -140 (Jackson vs. Leake)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago would be 52-34 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cincinnati would be 38-59 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Edwin Jackson was quite effective in his last start (at Boston) and is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA in his career against the Reds. Mike Leake allowed three runs and 11 hits in 5.2 innings in his last turn (against San Diego!). Nate Schierholtz is 9-for-19 against Leake and Justin Ruggiano is 16-for-35 over his last nine games. Cincinnati could be without first baseman Joey Votto, who sat out Sunday and reportedly is expected to head to the disabled list with a strained left quadriceps. Jay Bruce has been struggling too, as he was 0-for-26 heading into Sunday's game. The Reds are scoring nearly one less rpg vs. RH.
Play: Kansas City/Tampa Bay under 7 +105 (Shields vs. Odorizzi)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Royals hurler James Shields allowed just two runs over seven innings in his only start (April 30, 2013) against his former team. Jake Odorizzi has struck out 101 in 88.1 IP. He has a 2.00 ERA in his last three outings. The Rays score a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. Kansas City has averaged just 3.40 runs in its last five games. Both bullpens have been effective of late, posting sub-3.00 ERAs over their last 10 games.
Record: 130-97-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +78.04%
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