MLB: Thursday's 7:10 p.m. ET plays

Play: Cincinnati +102 (Leake vs. Miller)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Atlanta has allowed 13 runs in each of its last two contests. Now it will face Mike Leake, who has a better WHIP than Shelby Miller. Leake has gone at least seven innings in each of his last three starts. He also owns Freddie Freeman (career 1-for-13). The Reds are hitting better and are scoring more runs vs. RH. Jay Bruce homered twice in Cincinnati's last series, and Braves relievers have a 9.60 ERA in their last five games.


Play: Washington +101 (Strasburg vs. deGrom)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Nationals have owned New York over the last several years. Washington is 46-17 overall in the last 63 meetings. It is 36-15 in the last 51 at Citi Field and is 4-1 in Stephen Strasburg's last five starts there. Strasburg is 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets. The Nats scored 13 runs in each of their last two games (at Atlanta). Here they will see Jacob deGrom, who allowed six runs over five innings in his last turn. Washington CF Denard Span is 7-for-12 with two homers, four RBIs and six runs over his last two games. New York is 3-3 in its last six.


Record: 350-261-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +352.36%

MLB: Thursday's 1:45 p.m. ET play

Play: Philadelphia +1.5 -140 (Buchanan vs. Cooney)

Time: 1:45 p.m. ET

TV: MLBN

Reasoning: The Phillies will be facing Tim Cooney, who will make his major-league debut in place of Adam Wainwright (torn Achilles, out for year). Cooney has yielded five walks in 17.1 IP this season in Pacific Coast League play. Philadelphia is hitting 52 points higher and is scoring 1.22 more rpg vs. LH. David Buchanan will take the hill for the Phillies. He is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in two lifetime chances against St. Louis. The Cardinals also have to deal with Ryan Howard, who has three homers in his last five games. I like Chase Utley (.114 BA) to get off the schneid against a rookie hurler.


Record: 350-261-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +352.36%

No plays for Wednesday

Subscribers have been credited another day.

Record: 350-261-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +352.36%

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: L.A. Angels/Oakland under 7 +105 (Weaver vs. Gray)

Time: 10:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Jered Weaver is 13-9 with a 2.46 ERA in his career against the Athletics. The under is 21-5-3 in his last 29 starts against them. Games at O.co Coliseum have averaged 6.3 runs per game this season. Sonny Gray is 2-0 with a 1.91 ERA. In his first start this year against the Angels, Gray pitched seven innings and allowed one run on two hits while striking out seven. Gray is holding opponents to a .196 BA and he has a 0.88 WHIP. He is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts) vs. Los Angeles. The Angels, which have averaged just three rpg over their last five, are hitting .218 vs. RH. Matt Joyce is 1-for-27 over his last nine games and Albert Pujols is 1-for-16 lifetime vs. Gray.

Record: 350-260-12 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +366.35%

NBA: Monday's play

Play: Portland -3 -110

Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Reasoning: The Trail Blazers likely would be favored by one if Mike Conley was suiting up for Memphis. But he won't because of an eye injury. Conley's backup, Beno Udrih (ankle) is probable for this one, but he missed Game 3. You can't expect the Grizzlies to hit 39 of 43 free throws on Monday like they did in the last contest. Portland, which is 32-10 at home this season, has gotten 25.7 ppg from LaMarcus Aldridge and 17.7 ppg from Nicolas Batum in the series. Blazers reserve C.J. McCollum scored 26 on Saturday. At home Portland outscores opponents by an average of eight points. The Blazers also have big advantages in three-point shooting and rebounding.

Record: 348-260-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +346.30%

MLB: Monday's play

Play: Philadelphia +1.5 -170 (Hamels vs. Lackey)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Phillies won two out of three games vs. Atlanta over the weekend and Ryan Howard homered twice and knocked in five in the final two contests. John Lackey allowed a homer to Howard and two others in his last start against Philadelphia. Against Washington in his last start, Lackey gave up five runs in 5.2 IP. Cole Hamels didn't allow an earned run in six IP in his last start. The only current Cardinal to homer against Hamels is Mark Reynolds. St. Louis, which saw Jason Heyward exit with a groin injury on Sunday, is scoring 2.22 rpg vs. LH.

Record: 348-260-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +346.30%

No plays this weekend (on vacation in New England)

Subscribers have been credited three days.

Record: 348-260-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +346.30%

MLB: Thursday's play

Play: Pittsburgh -112 (Hendricks vs. Locke)

Time: 12:35 p.m. ET

TV: MLBN

Reasoning: The Pirates have won eight straight series against Chicago and are looking for a split in this one. Lefty Jeff Locke gets the ball on Friday and Pittsburgh has won nine of his last 10 home starts. He has a 1.93 ERA and, other than Anthony Rizzo (who is 3-for-10 against him), the rest of the Cubs roster is 5-for-33 lifetime against Locke. Kyle Hendricks has a 6.10 ERA. The Pirates are scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH and Chicago is scoring a half-run less per game vs. LH.

Record: 347-260-12 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +334.66%

MLB: Wednesday's 10:05 p.m. ET play

Play: Oakland/L.A. Angels over 7 -110 (Gray vs. Weaver)

Time: 10:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is a low total, especially for these teams. Sonny Gray got knocked around in his last start (4 R, 11 H). Here he'll meet a team that scored 14 on Tuesday. Los Angeles is averaging 4.32 rpg. If the Angels get to Gray, they'll see a bullpen with a 4.24 ERA. The Athletics are hitting 47 points higher vs. RH and are averaging 5.35 rpg against them. Jered Weaver has a 6.61 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. And over the last seven-plus seasons games called by Mike Muchlinski have averaged 8.9 runs.

Record: 345-260-12 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +310.52% 

MLB: Wednesday's 7:05 p.m. ET play

Play: St. Louis/Washington over 7 +105 (Lackey vs. Fister)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Cardinals are averaging nearly three more runs per game vs. RH. Matt Holliday has led the attack. He banged out four hits on Tuesday, has hit safely in all 12 games and is 6-for-8 with RISP. Doug Fister has been impressive, but both of his starts were against Philadelphia, which is next to last in runs. The sinkerballer gave up four runs and two homers in his only start against St. Louis last June. Jayson Werth is 5-for-10 with a homer and two doubles lifetime against John Lackey. And in the last four-plus years games called by Wolf have averaged between 7.74 and 9.82 runs. 

Record: 345-260-12 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +310.52%

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Tampa Bay -124 (Miley vs. Archer)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Rays will send out their stopper, Chris Archer, on Tuesday. He appears to be in a groove after allowing just three hits and three walks combined over his last two starts. Through Sunday he had the best WHIP in the majors (0.66) and has a 1.37 ERA. In his last start he struck out 11 over seven shutout innings at Toronto. Contrast that with Wade Miley's performance last Wednesday vs. Washington (2.1 IP, 7 ER). Tampa Bay was 7-3 at home last season vs. Boston. Hanley Ramirez left Monday's contest due to illness. And Kevin Kiermaier, who leads the Rays in extra-base hits, should be good to go after pinch-hitting Sunday following two missed games because of illness.

Record: 345-259-12 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +323.22%

MLB: Monday's play

Play: San Diego +118 (Despaigne vs. De La Rosa)

Time: 8:40 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Despaigne is making a case to stay in the Padres rotation. He has a 0.77 ERA and a 0.34 WHIP. He has faced Colorado once (on 08/12/14) and in that one he tossed seven scoreless innings. Jorge De La Rosa will make his fist start of 2015 after beginning the regular season on the disabled list (strained groin). San Diego has won seven of its last 10 and one of those losses came in 11 innings after they scored four runs in the ninth to tie it. How different are these Padres? Last season they hit 15 homers combined in April and May. This year San Diego has smacked 12 homers in 13 games. Entering Sunday's contest they were hitting .343 vs. LH and were scoring 6.06 rpg against them.

Record: 344-259-12 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +308.75%

MLB: Sunday's play

Play: Milwaukee +1.5 -160 (Garza vs. Cole)

Time: 1:35 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Brewers haven't scored much this season, but are still averaging about one run more per game vs. RH. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.77 rpg. Matt Garza is 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Pirates. Gerrit Cole is 1-2 lifetime against Milwaukee. The Brewers have had the better bullpen so far in 2015.


Record: 344-258-12 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +321.39%

MLB: Saturday's 9:05 p.m. ET play

Play: San Francisco -145 (De La Rosa vs. Heston)

Time: 9:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I like the Giants to get well against Rubby De La Rosa. He has a 7.15 ERA this season and an 8.18 ERA in three career games (two starts) against San Francisco. The Giants will go with Chris Heston, who has a 0.69 ERA through two starts. San Francisco also has 3B Casey McGehee back from a bruised knee.

Record: 342-258-12 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +298.79% 

MLB: Saturday's 7:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Oakland +120 (Hahn vs. Ventura)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Yordano Ventura had to leave his first two starts this season because of cramps in his hand and calf. Jesse Hahn carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his last start. Also, Kansas City has never faced Hahn. He is 7-5 with a 3.07 ERA for his career and opponents are hitting just .216 against him. Alcides Escobar is doubtful for this one after he had to be helped off the field Friday after a hard slide by Brett Lawrie. Billy Butler has hit safely in all 11 games.

Record: 342-258-12 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +298.79% 

MLB: Friday's play

Play: San Diego -104 (Shields vs. Hammel)

Time: 2:20 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Padres have won five of their last six. Last year against Chicago they took two out of three at Wrigley Field and outscored the Cubs 21-6 in the final two games. Here San Diego sends out James Shields, who Chicago hasn't seen since 2008. Shields has a 2.08 ERA and in his last start he limited San Francisco to one run on three hits over seven innings. Jason Hammel, who won his 2015 debut after giving up three runs on eight hits over six innings, has had more than mixed success against the Padres in his career. In his last four starts vs. San Diego he has a 6.04 ERA. The Cubs are hitting .208 vs. RH. Matt Kemp has always enjoyed the Friendly Confines and has a .323 BA with six homers and 20 RBIs in 104 PA there. Justin Upton, who has homered in back-to-back games, has a 12-game hitting streak dating to last season. Chicago will be without hard-throwing reliever Neil Ramirez for this one. He exited Wednesday's game after three pitches because of right shoulder discomfort and underwent an MRI on Thursday. Ramirez struck out 53 and posted a 1.44 ERA in 43.2 IP as a rookie in 2014.


Record: 341-258-12 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +287.61%

No plays for Thursday

I have credited subscribers another day.

Record: 341-258-12 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +287.61%

MLB: Wednesday's play

Play: Kansas City/Minnesota under 8 +105 (Volquez vs. Gibson)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Royals are the only unbeaten team in baseball. They have allowed just 16 runs in seven games. Their relief corps has yet to allow a run. The Twins, who have the worst record in baseball, have scored an AL-low 18 runs. Torii Hunter has just three hits, all singles, in 23 ABs. Edinson Volquez allowed the White Sox just one run on four hits over eight innings in his 2015 debut. Minnesota hasn't seen him since 2007. Kyle Gibson, a former first-round draft pick, was roughed up in his first start. But he is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in three lifetime starts against Kansas City. Alex Rios will be sidelined indefinitely due to a fractured bone in his left hand after getting hit by a pitch on Monday.

Record: 340-258-12 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +275.78%

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Miami +108 (Koehler vs. Cahill)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I like the Marlins to get off the schneid against a pitcher (Trevor Cahill) who is a shell of his former self. Cahill was traded from Arizona to the Braves for a minor leaguer at the end of spring training. He didn't have a good spring and was 3-12 with a 5.61 ERA in 2014. He is 11-22 over the past two seasons. Tom Koehler will go for the Marlins and he was a tough-luck loser (2-0) last Wednesday vs. Atlanta. In that one he scattered three hits through six innings before giving up a single and a homer to start the seventh. Koehler has a 2.52 ERA in five outings (four starts) at Turner Field.

Record: 339-258-12 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +263.99%

MLB: Monday's 8:05 p.m. ET play

Play: Texas +1.5 -130 (Detwiler vs. Shoemaker)

Time: 8:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Ross Detwiler was roughed up in his 2015 debut, but even with that he still has a 2.38 ERA in 19 career games (10 starts) in April. Matt Shoemaker has a lifetime road ERA of 4.45. Los Angeles has lost three straight and is scoring just 2.67 rpg. Prince Fielder is 11-for-25 over his last six contests.


Record: 338-257-12 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +268.34%

MLB: Monday's 7:07 p.m. ET play

Play: Tampa Bay +1.5 -165 (Odorizzi vs. Dickey)

Time: 7:07 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Jake Odorizzi allowed Baltimore just two hits over 6.2 IP in his first outing of 2015. He finished 2014 with a 9-6 record and was 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two games against Toronto. Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is 0-for-8 lifetime against Odorizzi. R.A. Dickey had a 4.68 ERA in four starts against the Rays last season. Asdrubal Cabrera is 4-for-9 with two homers and Evan Longoria is 8-for-30 with two homers lifetime against the knuckleballer. David DeJesus (six RBIs last two games) and Kevin Kiermaier (seven extra-base hits) have been getting it done for Tampa Bay, which has won three of its last four.


Record: 338-257-12 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +268.34%

MLB: Sunday's play

Play: Detroit/Cleveland under 8.5 -105 (Lobstein vs. House)

Time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Kyle Lobstein likely isn't the next Justin Verlander (the man Lobstein is replacing in the rotation on Sunday), but he showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie last season. Lobstein allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts in 2014. Indians starter T.J. House went 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his final nine starts last year and went 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and a 6-to-1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio at home. Michael Brantley (back) likely won't play and Victor Martinez (leg) is questionable. Both squads have struggled mightily against left-handers.

Record: 338-256-12 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +279.73%

MLB: Saturday's 1:05 p.m. ET play

Play: St. Louis +121 (Wacha vs. Cueto)

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Reds are 4-0, but they could just as easily be 0-4 since they registered each of the wins in their final at-bat. On Saturday they will go against Michael Wacha, who in six career games (five starts) vs. Cincinnati has a 2.30 ERA and 24 Ks in 31.1 IP. The Reds counter with Johnny Cueto, who is 5-6 in 18 career games opposing St. Louis. John Jay is 12-for-25 with three homers and seven RBIs lifetime against Cueto. The Cards outhit Cincinnati 10-4 on Friday.

Record: 337-256-12 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +266.43%

MLB: Friday's 9:40 p.m. ET play

Play: L.A. Dodgers/Arizona under 8.5 -105 (B. Anderson vs. C. Anderson)

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Brett Anderson had a 2.91 ERA in eight starts last season. He had a 1.16 ERA in his last four starts before suffering a herniated disk in his back in August. This spring he went 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five starts. Here Anderson will meet a Diamondbacks club that went 4-for-23 with runners in scoring position against San Francisco. Arizona counters with Chase Anderson, who went 9-7 with a 4.01 ERA in 2014. He'll be backed by a bullpen that has posted a 1.42 ERA over the first three games. Dodgers relievers have a 2.70 ERA.


Record: 335-256-12 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +244.59%

MLB: Friday's 3:05 p.m. ET play

Play: Toronto +116 (Buehrle vs. Norris)

Time: 3:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Orioles have been held scoreless for the last 16 innings. Here they will face Mark Buehrle, who in 2014 posted his best ERA (3.39) since 2005. He has a 3.57 ERA in 24 career games vs. Baltimore. The Blue Jays scored 15 runs in three games at New York. And that was with Jose Bautista going 0-for-12 with eight strikeouts. I like Bautista to break out on Friday against Bud Norris, who had a 9.25 ERA in spring training.

Record: 335-256-12 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +244.59%

NHL: Thursday's play

Play: Detroit +115

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: With a win the Red Wings will clinch a playoff berth. And Detroit could get LW Justin Abdelkader (hand) back for this tilt. Abdelkader is fourth on the team in goals (23 tallies in 71 games). Montreal will be without LW Max Pacioretty (upper body) after he was checked into the boards vs. Florida on Sunday. Pacioretty leads the Canadiens in goals (37) and points (67). He also leads the NHL in plus-minus (+38) and is used on penalty kills. The Red Wings convert 24.3% of their power plays, good for second in the league. Montreal has allowed six PP goals in its last 15 penalty-kill chances.

Record: 334-255-12 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +245.08%

MLB: Thursday's play

Play: N.Y. Mets/Washington over 6 -105 (Harvey vs. Strasburg)

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Reasoning: It won't take much to get over this total, and I really like it with Matt Harvey making his first regular-season start in 20 months and Stephen Strasburg coming off of a shaky spring. Harvey missed all of 2014 following Tommy John surgery and Strasburg had a 4.20 ERA in Grapefruit League play. The Mets aren't bad offensively and the Nationals may have six players who will hit 15-plus homers this year. Bryce Harper is 4-for-7 with a homer over two games and Ryan Zimmerman hit a two-run blast on Wednesday. 

Record: 334-255-12 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +245.08%

MLB: Wednesday's play

Play: Cleveland/Houston over 8 +105 (Carrasco vs. Feldman)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I especially like the Indians to do their part to exceed this total since they will be facing a right-handed pitcher. Cleveland, which used five left-handed hitters on Monday, went 3-for-26 vs. southpaws Dallas Keuchel and Tony Sipp on Opening Day. The Indians' first three hitters (Michael Bourn, Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley) went a collective 0-for-11 in Game 1, but the trio batted .293 vs. RH in 2014. As a team Cleveland ranked 18th in MLB in batting against lefties last season compared to 11th vs. righties. Here the Indians will face Scott Feldman, who went 0-3 with a 6.87 ERA in five starts in spring training. Also, the Astros bullpen led the majors last year with 25 blown saves. I also like Houston's offensive attack, especially when games are played at Minute Maid Park. On Wednesday the Astros will face Carlos Carrasco, who was sent to the bullpen last season when he posted a 6.95 ERA in his first four starts.


Record: 334-254-12 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +255.75%

MLB: Tuesday's 10:10 p.m. ET plays

Play: LAA +123 (Wilson vs. Paxton)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: C.J. Wilson limited Seattle to a .196 BA last season and he owns Kyle Seager (3-for-33, 15 K). Seager and Robinson Cano went a combined 0-for-18 against the southpaw in 2014. Seth Smith (0-for-9 lifetime) and Dustin Ackley (5-for-29 lifetime) also struggle against Wilson, who had a 2.31 ERA in three Cactus League starts. James Paxton will go for the Mariners, but he was only recently cleared to pitch after he tripped in spring training and injured his left (pitching) forearm. In three spring starts he had 7.84 ERA.


Play: San Diego +1.5 -160 (Ross vs. Greinke)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Padres backers took it on the chin Monday when the team's normally solid bullpen betrayed it. San Diego was 60-1 when leading after six innings last year and Los Angeles went 2-54 when trailing after six innings. San Diego's Matt Kemp paid immediate dividends against his former team when he knocked in all three of the Padres' runs in Game 1. On Tuesday the Padres will go with Tyson Ross, who had an All-Star season in 2014 and posted a 2.67 ERA in four turns against the Dodgers. San Diego, which got to Clayton Kershaw in the opener, will face Zack Greinke here. In February Greinke needed a lubricating injection into his pitching elbow.


Record: 330-254-12 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +221.64%

MLB: Tuesday's 8:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Colorado +1.5 -145 (Lyles vs. Garza)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Rockies, who led the NL in runs last year, banged out 16 hits and won 10-0 on Opening Day. The Brewers, who committed three errors in Game 1, could be without Ryan Bruan after he left Monday's game with a strained rib cage. Milwaukee, which had to dip into its bullpen in the fourth inning of Game 1, will start Matt Garza. A notoriously-slow starter, Garza had just one win in six April starts in 2014. He is 10-10 with a 3.80 ERA lifetime in the first month. He also has a 4.94 ERA in his career against Colorado. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for the Rockies and he went 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in six starts last April.


Record: 330-254-12 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +221.64%

MLB: Tuesday's 7:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Baltimore -101 (Chen vs. Karns)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Orioles, who slammed three homers on Monday, led the majors in round-trippers in 2013 and 2014. They also should have Chris Davis (suspension) back for this tilt. Baltimore will run out Wei-Yin Chen for Game 2, and he has a 3.26 ERA lifetime against Tampa Bay. Chen had his best season in 2014 and was excellent this spring. The Rays, who have just nine players back from last season's Opening Day roster, lost leadoff hitter John Jaso on Monday after he sprained his wrist sliding into second base in the first inning. Jaso will miss at least a few games. Nathan Karns will start for Tampa Bay because of injuries to Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore. Karns went 1-1 in two starts last season. In his second outing he allowed six runs in five innings against the White Sox.


Record: 330-254-12 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +221.64%

MLB: Monday's 10:05 p.m. ET plays

Play: Oakland -146 (Gallardo vs. Gray)

Time: 10:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Athletics are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last five starts against Texas. Gray is 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA in his career against the Rangers. Oakland has added Ben Zobrist, Billy Butler, Ike Davis, Brett Lawrie and Marcus Semien to its lineup. It also has been to the playoffs three straight seasons. The A's will take on a Texas club that went 67-95 last year. Adrien Beltre had just six homers and 26 RBIs after last season's All-Star break. And Yovani Gallardo, who went 8-11 with a 3.51 ERA in 2014, lost his lone career outing against Oakland in 2013 when he allowed five runs in six innings.


Play: Arizona +1.5 -135 (Bumgarner vs. Collmenter)

Time: 10:05 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN2

Reasoning: I'll take the run and a hook against a weaker San Francisco lineup. The Giants looked horrible this spring, finishing near the bottom of the National League in nearly every category. They also will be without right fielder and leadoff hitter Hunter Pence for at least two more weeks after he suffered a broken arm early in camp. Josh Collmenter went 13 scoreless innings over three starts this spring. He closed 2014 with a 1.53 ERA in his final five starts and is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 18 career games (seven starts) against San Francisco.



Record: 327-250-11 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +233.50%

MLB: Monday's 7:10 p.m. ET plays

Play: Cleveland/Houston over 7.5 +105 (Kluber vs. Keuchel)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Reasoning: Corey Kluber went 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA last April. Dallas Keuchel will get his first Opening Day gig. Both squads can hit and they will be playing in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park. The Astros have added Jed Lowrie, Evan Gattis, Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena to an already potent lineup. The Indians have tons of speed and are led by Michael Brantley, who last season hit .327 with 45 doubles, 20 homers, 97 RBIs and 23 SBs en route to a third-place finish in the AL MVP balloting.



Play: Pittsburgh/Cincinnati over 7 +106 (Liriano vs. Cueto)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Francisco Liriano, who dropped off considerably from his first season with the Pirates, is 0-5 with a 4.14 ERA in his career vs. Cincinnati. The Reds have a healthy Joey Votto and they have added Marlon Byrd, who totaled 25 homers and 85 RBIs for Philadelphia last year. They also have Todd Frazier, who clubbed 29 homers last season, which tied Josh Donaldson for the most among third basemen. Pittsburgh has power and speed. And these teams have averaged 9.33 runs in their last six meetings at Great American Ball Park.  

Record: 327-250-11 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +233.50%

MLB: Monday's 4:10 p.m. ET plays

Play: San Diego +1.5 -135 (Shields vs. Kershaw)

Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Padres are facing Clayton Kershaw here, but they have a vastly different lineup than they did a season ago. Only two players -- Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso -- should be held over from the starting lineup in last year's opener. The Padres have added Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, Will Middlebrooks and Derek Norris as position players and that should allow them to score more than 535 runs (their total from last season) in 2015. They also acquired James Shields, who will toe the rubber on Monday. Shields has won at least 10 games and thrown 200 innings in each of the last eight seasons. He will get his seventh Opening Day start. Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA for Kansas City last year.


Play: Chi. White Sox/Kansas City under 7.5 -108 (Samardzija vs. Ventura)

Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Yordano Ventura is starting only his second full season, but I like him to pick up where he left off in 2014. He went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA last year and he didn't allow a homer in 18 innings of spring training. He is 5-1 in his last six decisions (1-0 in the playoffs). Jeff Samardzija will start his third opener and he finished last season with a 2.99 ERA. The Royals have one of baseball's best bullpens, and new White Sox closer David Robertson will give his team a boost.

Play: L.A. Angels +149 (Weaver vs. Hernandez)

Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Los Angeles, which won 98 games in 2014, will send out Jered Weaver. He will make his seventh Opening Day start. He went 18-9 with a 3.59 ERA last season. He also is 14-10 with a 3.37 ERA in 31 career starts against Seattle. Felix Hernandez is 11-13 with a 3.52 ERA in 40 career starts against the Angels. Reigning AL MVP Mike Trout is batting .367 in 49 career ABs vs. Hernandez.


Record: 327-250-11 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +233.50%

MLB: Monday's 1:05 p.m. ET play

Play: Toronto +139 (Hutchinson vs. Tanaka)

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Reasoning: New York starter Masahiro Tanaka is dealing with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament that cost him more than two months last season. He has avoided Tommy John surgery to this point, but how effective will he be in this one much less the season? Here he faces a formidable Blue Jays lineup that has added third baseman Josh Donaldson to holdovers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Toronto starter Drew Hutchinson beat out veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle for the Opening Day nod after going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in spring training.

Record: 327-250-11 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +233.50%

NBA: Sunday's play

Play: Philadelphia/New York over 186 -105

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is a low total any way you cut it. This is the third lowest figure the 76ers have faced. The overs are 4-3-1 in Knicks games with totals of 186 or less. Both squads average well over this figure in the overall, home/away, rest-day scenario and last-five-game splits. Philadelphia made 11 three-pointers in its last game (at Charlotte on Saturday) and Robert Covington and Ish Smith score 15 points apiece. Smith has averaged 16.5 ppg in his last five contests. New York is well below average in field-goal percentage defense and it allows 8.5 threes per game. Tim Hardaway Jr. (11.1 ppg) is back after missing nine games from March 17 until April 3 with a wrist injury. Langston Galloway has averaged 13.3 ppg over his last 10 and Ricky Ledo poured in 21 points off the bench in his last tilt.

Record: 326-250-11 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +224.23%

NBA: Saturday's play

Play: Toronto -3 -107

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Raptors have won four straight and six of the last seven against Boston. Toronto is 26-13 at home and has allowed 98.2 ppg in those contests. It also has averaged 105.9 ppg in the second games of back-to-backs, accounting for its highest scoring average in any scenario. The Celtics are 3-18 against Top 10 teams and the Raptors are 29-8 vs. squads in the Bottom 16. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 28.7 ppg in his last three tilts and he leads Toronto in scoring (19.6 ppg). Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 17.5 ppg on 67.4% shooting over his last four. And super-sub Lou Williams averages 15.2 ppg off of the bench. The Raptors shoot better from the perimeter and the foul line and they also should have the rebounding edge. In addition they commit fewer turnovers and block more shots.


Record: 326-249-11 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +234.26%

No plays for Friday

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Record: 326-249-11 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +234.26%

NBA: Thursday's play

Play: Phoenix +12.5 -110

Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Reasoning: The Suns can hang with Golden State offensively. Phoenix scores 103.5 ppg overall and 104 ppg on the road. It is above-average in three-pointers allowed, scores more than the Warriors at the line and gets more scoring from its bench. It also is above average in offensive boards (11.1 per game). This is the most points the Suns have received all season. My power ratings say the line is correct, however, that doesn't account for injuries. And Draymond Green, Golden State's all-around star, is dinged. Green (shin) is questionable for Thursday night. He is third on the team in scoring (11.8), second in rebounding (8.1), and second in assists, steals and blocks.


Record: 325-249-11 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +225.39%

NBA: Wednesday's plays

Play: Sacramento +11.5 -103

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Houston doesn't normally have trouble scoring. But Dwight Howard (knee) missed Monday's game and is questionable for this one. And the Rockets were already short-handed with Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Kostas Papanikolaou sidelined for the season or out indefinitely. The Kings, who have played the toughest schedule in the NBA,  have lost two straight but that has come on the heels of a four-game winning streak. And prior to its last two contests Sacramento eclipsed 100 points in 12 of 14 games. The Kings shoot better, rebound better, score 4.6 more free throws per game, commit fewer turnovers and get more bench scoring.



Play: Milwaukee +5.5 -110

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: My power ratings say this should be a pick 'em. Derrick Rose (knee) is still out for Chicago and the Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road affairs. The Bucks, who could have Jared Dudley back for this one, play better defense, shoot better overall and on threes, record 3.4 more steals per game and have the deeper bench. Milwaukee also has played a much more difficult schedule than Chicago. The Bulls have played the fourth-easiest schedule in the league.



Record: 323-249-11 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +208.02%