Subscribers will be extended another day.
Record: 123-91-6 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +79.91%
Monday, June 30, 2014
Sunday, June 29, 2014
No plays for Sunday
Good luck if you found something.
Subscribers will be extended another day.
Record: 123-91-6 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +79.91%
Saturday, June 28, 2014
MLB: Saturday's late play
Play: San Francisco -115 (Simon vs. Cain)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the value here with Matt Cain going at home. Although he's struggled this season it's not like he's forgotten how to pitch. He has a 3.54 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against the Reds. Part of Cain's problem has been the fact that the Giants haven't given him run support. They have scored two runs or fewer in seven of his 12 starts. Cincinnati scores nearly a half-run less per game vs. RH. The Reds also have a huge disadvantage in the bullpen (4.15 ERA) when compared to that of San Francisco (2.70 ERA). Buster Posey is hitting .364 in June.
Record: 120-89-6 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +75.48%
MLB: Saturday's 4 p.m. ET Plays
Play: Minnesota +1.5 -140 (Hughes vs. Darvish)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 50-28 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Rangers would be 23-56 if they gave 1.5 rpg. The Rangers barely broke an eight-game losing streak yesterday after their closer, Joakim Soria, gave up four runs in the ninth inning. Phil Hughes (3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) was touched up and went just five innings in his last start, but he went at least six innings in his previous 11 outings. Yu Darvish has a 1.55 WHIP in his last three starts and he's lost his last two after allowing 12 runs in 11 innings. Minnesota scores a half-run more per game vs. RH and Texas scores 1.78 fewer rpg vs. RH.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Pittsburgh over 7.5 +100 (Niese vs. Cole)
Time: 4:05 p.m.
Reasoning: How long will Gerrit Cole go today and how effective will he be after coming off the DL with shoulder fatigue? In his only start vs. New York (last year) he allowed three runs in five innings. Games at PNC Park average 8.63 runs and Mets road games average 8.64 runs. Games called by umpire Toby Basner have averaged 10.44 runs this season and 10.20 last season. Andrew McCutcheon has a seven-game hitting streak and Lucas Duda has eight RBIs in his last five games.
Play: Tampa Bay/Baltimore over 8.5 +101 (Bedard vs. Chen)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Nelson Cruz has four homers and nine RBIs in his last nine games. He'll face Erik Bedard who has a 6.30 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Orioles. In the last 10 games against LH, the Rays are hitting 28 points higher and Baltimore is hitting 44 points higher. Both bullpens are shaky and Tampa Bay's reliever are awful (4.32 ERA) on the road.
Play: Houston +1.5 -120 (Scherzer vs. Oberholtzer)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Astros would be 49-32 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 30-46 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Detroit is scoring a half-run less per game vs. LH. Brett Oberholtzer has been solid in his last three starts (3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) while Max Scherzer has not. Scherzer, who this year turned down a huge contract offer, is not having a great season. And in his last three starts he has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Jose Altuve is hitting .342.
Record: 120-89-6 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +75.48%
Friday, June 27, 2014
MLB: Friday's 10 p.m. ET play
Play: St. Louis +122 (Martinez vs. action)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cardinals have been raking LH of late. They have averaged 6.39 runs per game against southpaws in their last 10 contests and 7.16 rpg vs. them in their last five. Carlos Martinez, 22, has the look of a solid starter after beginning the season in the 'pen. He has allowed five hits in nine innings over his last two starts. Last October against the Dodgers he allowed just one hit in four relief appearances against them. Los Angeles SS Hanley Ramirez has missed three straight games and is day-to-day. The Dodgers are just 19-20 at home.
Record: 116-88-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +62.13%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cardinals have been raking LH of late. They have averaged 6.39 runs per game against southpaws in their last 10 contests and 7.16 rpg vs. them in their last five. Carlos Martinez, 22, has the look of a solid starter after beginning the season in the 'pen. He has allowed five hits in nine innings over his last two starts. Last October against the Dodgers he allowed just one hit in four relief appearances against them. Los Angeles SS Hanley Ramirez has missed three straight games and is day-to-day. The Dodgers are just 19-20 at home.
Record: 116-88-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +62.13%
MLB: Friday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Play: Colorado +1.5 -120 (Matzek vs. Lohse) and Colorado/Milwaukee under 9 -105 (Matzek vs. Lohse)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 46-33 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Brewers would be 36-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. I don't expect a lot of runs here because you have a veteran pitcher in Kyle Lohse who is having a brilliant season (3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) and a rookie with tons of ability in Tyler Matzek (7 IP, 2 ER, 7 K in debut vs. Atlanta). And I like Colorado to at least keep it close since it tagged Lohse pretty well (5 IP, 3 R, 7 H) in his last start. Milwaukee is hitting 23 points lower vs. LH.
Play: Houston +1.5 -135 (Verlander vs. Peacock)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Astros would be 48-32 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 30-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Brad Peacock has been better than Justin Verlander in 2014 and much better of late. Peacock has a 3.60 ERA over his last three starts as opposed to Verlander's 7.71 ERA. Detroit's bullpen has been atrocious this season and has a 6.89 ERA in its last five games. Houston relievers have a 3.60 ERA on the season. Peacock went 6.2 innings and allowed Detroit just four hits on May 7.
Record: 116-88-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +62.13%
MLB: Friday's 7 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta/Philadelphia over 7.5 +110 (Teheran vs. Kendrick)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: You have two average bullpens here (3.41 ERA and 3.48 ERA, respectively) and the Phillies should be disadvantaged a little after going 14 innings in their game yesterday. So relief might not come easy or early for Kyle Kendrick, who has a 4.20 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. For the Braves, Julio Teheran has struggled of late, posting a 4.64 ERA over his last three starts. All this and playing at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park adds up to an over in my book.
Record: 116-88-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +62.13%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: You have two average bullpens here (3.41 ERA and 3.48 ERA, respectively) and the Phillies should be disadvantaged a little after going 14 innings in their game yesterday. So relief might not come easy or early for Kyle Kendrick, who has a 4.20 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. For the Braves, Julio Teheran has struggled of late, posting a 4.64 ERA over his last three starts. All this and playing at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park adds up to an over in my book.
Record: 116-88-6 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +62.13%
Thursday, June 26, 2014
MLB: Thursday's Det/Tex
Plays: Texas +1.5 -135 (Porcello vs. Martinez) and under 10 -110 (Porcello vs. Martinez)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Rick Porcello has been battered in his career by the Rangers. In seven games he has a 7.41 ERA against them and Texas is hitting .377. So I like the Rangers to score enough to win or keep it close, but they still have averaged less than three runs per game over their last five. Texas starter Nick Martinez allowed just two runs over seven innings his last time out. And last month he limited the Tigers to one run over six innings. Each of these bullpens is remarkably better in the home/away splits than they are overall. And the umpire will be Clint Fagan, and his games have averaged 5.81 runs this season. It would probably be safe to call him an "under ump," because during his career the under is 24-11.
Record: 115-86-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +67.62%
MLB: Thursday's early play
Play: Minnesota +1.5 -120 (Nolasco vs. Weaver)
Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 49-27 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 33-43 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Minnesota scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. Against Jered Weaver, the threat of the long ball always is there. He didn't allow any home runs in his last start but he did cough up at least one in the seven prior outings. Ricky Nolasco is unbeaten in his last five starts and the Angels have never seen him. The Twins bullpen is almost a run better overall than that of Anaheim. And, in the last 10 games, Minnesota has a 2.95 and the Angels have a 5.93 ERA.
Record: 115-86-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +67.62%
Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 49-27 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 33-43 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Minnesota scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. Against Jered Weaver, the threat of the long ball always is there. He didn't allow any home runs in his last start but he did cough up at least one in the seven prior outings. Ricky Nolasco is unbeaten in his last five starts and the Angels have never seen him. The Twins bullpen is almost a run better overall than that of Anaheim. And, in the last 10 games, Minnesota has a 2.95 and the Angels have a 5.93 ERA.
Record: 115-86-6 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +67.62%
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Play: Texas +1.5 -130 (Sanchez vs. Saunders)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 44-32 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 28-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Texas has worn out Anibal Sanchez. In four career starts he is 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA. Detroit is scoring 0.72 less rpg vs. LH. In the last five games Rangers relievers have a 3.46 ERA and Tigers relievers have a 6.43 ERA.
Play: Atlanta -126 (Wood vs. action)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Collin McHugh is fortunate his ERA is where it is, because he has a 1.50 WHIP in his last three starts. McHugh has walked 11 in his last three outings, and men on base can be troublesome in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park. Alex Wood has a 3.43 ERA and eventually has to get some run support. The Braves have scored zero runs in three of his seven starts and one run in two others. Houston's bullpen is a mess. It has a 4.75 ERA overall and a 7.11 ERA in its last five contests. Braves relievers have a 3.43 ERA overall and a 1.80 mark in their last five games.
Record: 114-84-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +73.92%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 44-32 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 28-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Texas has worn out Anibal Sanchez. In four career starts he is 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA. Detroit is scoring 0.72 less rpg vs. LH. In the last five games Rangers relievers have a 3.46 ERA and Tigers relievers have a 6.43 ERA.
Play: Atlanta -126 (Wood vs. action)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Collin McHugh is fortunate his ERA is where it is, because he has a 1.50 WHIP in his last three starts. McHugh has walked 11 in his last three outings, and men on base can be troublesome in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park. Alex Wood has a 3.43 ERA and eventually has to get some run support. The Braves have scored zero runs in three of his seven starts and one run in two others. Houston's bullpen is a mess. It has a 4.75 ERA overall and a 7.11 ERA in its last five contests. Braves relievers have a 3.43 ERA overall and a 1.80 mark in their last five games.
Record: 114-84-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +73.92%
MLB: Wednesday's Mia/Phi
Play: Philadelphia -114 (action vs. Burnett)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins are 9-27 in their last 36 games at Citizens Bank Park. Tonight they will face a 37-year-old in A.J. Burnett who hasn't been showing his age. He has a 2.22 ERA and a miniscule 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Burnett is 2-1 lifetime against Miami. The Marlins are hitting 17 points lower and scoring 0.65 less runs per game vs. RH. Miami has averaged just 2.91 rpg in its last 10 and its bullpen has a 4.60 ERA in its last five. Conversely, over the last 10 games, the Phillies are scoring 0.63 more rpg vs. RH and their bullpen has a 1.33 ERA. Philadelphia's Cody Asche has been hot since coming off of the DL (7-for-19).
Record: 114-84-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +73.92%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins are 9-27 in their last 36 games at Citizens Bank Park. Tonight they will face a 37-year-old in A.J. Burnett who hasn't been showing his age. He has a 2.22 ERA and a miniscule 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Burnett is 2-1 lifetime against Miami. The Marlins are hitting 17 points lower and scoring 0.65 less runs per game vs. RH. Miami has averaged just 2.91 rpg in its last 10 and its bullpen has a 4.60 ERA in its last five. Conversely, over the last 10 games, the Phillies are scoring 0.63 more rpg vs. RH and their bullpen has a 1.33 ERA. Philadelphia's Cody Asche has been hot since coming off of the DL (7-for-19).
Record: 114-84-6 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +73.92%
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Min/LAA
Play: Minnesota +1.5 -130 (Gibson vs. Wilson)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 49-25 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 31-43 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Minnesota has won four straight. Twins starter Kyle Gibson hasn't allowed a run in his last 22 innings. His WHIP is at 0.67 over his last three games. The Angels are hitting 13 points lower and scoring nearly a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. These teams haven't faced each other in 2014, however, last season Los Angeles lost five of the six meetings and was outscored 36-18. C.J. Wilson has a 4.25 ERA lifetime against Minnesota (24 appearances, seven starts).
Record: 112-82-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +75.82%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 49-25 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 31-43 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Minnesota has won four straight. Twins starter Kyle Gibson hasn't allowed a run in his last 22 innings. His WHIP is at 0.67 over his last three games. The Angels are hitting 13 points lower and scoring nearly a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. These teams haven't faced each other in 2014, however, last season Los Angeles lost five of the six meetings and was outscored 36-18. C.J. Wilson has a 4.25 ERA lifetime against Minnesota (24 appearances, seven starts).
Record: 112-82-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +75.82%
MLB: Tuesday's 8:05 p.m. ET plays
Play: Chi. Cubs -108 (action vs. Arrieta)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jake Arrieta is on fire. He is 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in four starts this month with 29 strikeouts and just five walks. And Cincinnati has never seen him. Homer Bailey has a 4.68 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP this season, and he has a 4.16 ERA in 14 career starts against the Cubs. Chicago's bullpen is about one run better overall than that of the Reds, whose relievers have a 6.18 ERA in their last 10 games and a 6.75 ERA in their last five. Anthony Rizzo, who blasted his 16th homer yesterday, is hitting .312 with six homers, six doubles and 15 RBI this month. Brandon Phillips, who missed yesterday's contest with a bruised heel, is questionable for this one.
Play: Texas +1.5 -160 (Smyly vs. Lewis)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 44-31 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 27-45 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Texas has won five of the last six vs. Detroit at Arlington. The Rangers are hitting 24 points higher and scoring 1.98 more rpg vs. LH. In the last five games Texas' bullpen has a 2.70 ERA. And the Tigers relievers? They have a 5.34 ERA in their last 10 and a 6.23 ERA in their last five. Detroit CF Austin Jackson is hitting .168 in 33 games away from Comerica Park.
Record: 112-82-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +75.82%
MLB: Tuesday's Oak/NYM
Play: N.Y. Mets +1.5 -140 (Kazmir vs. Colon)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: New York would be 53-23 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Oakland would be 36-40 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Bartolo Colon is a marvel at age 41. He has a 1.71 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in his last three starts. Colon's unbeaten streak is now at seven games. The Mets are hitting 20 points higher vs. LH. And in the last 10 games, New York's relievers have combined for a 2.70 ERA compared to the 4.93 figure for the Athletics.
Record: 112-82-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll:+ 75.82%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: New York would be 53-23 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Oakland would be 36-40 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Bartolo Colon is a marvel at age 41. He has a 1.71 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in his last three starts. Colon's unbeaten streak is now at seven games. The Mets are hitting 20 points higher vs. LH. And in the last 10 games, New York's relievers have combined for a 2.70 ERA compared to the 4.93 figure for the Athletics.
Record: 112-82-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll:
Monday, June 23, 2014
MLB: Monday's Play
Play: Chi. Cubs -111 (action vs. Samardzija)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago is 18-15 since May 17. It is scoring about a half-run more than Cincinnati vs. RH in the home/away splits. The Cubs also have a tremendous bullpen advantage (3.03 ERA vs. 4.30 ERA). Reds relievers have a 6.41 ERA in their last 10 games and a 7.07 ERA in their last five. Alfredo Simon has 4.59 ERA in six night games this season. Jeff Samardzija has a 2.84 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati this season. Reds 2B Brandon Phillips will likely miss this contest after exiting yesterday’s game with a bruised right heel.
Record: 112-81-6 (58.0%)
Bankroll: +81.26%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago is 18-15 since May 17. It is scoring about a half-run more than Cincinnati vs. RH in the home/away splits. The Cubs also have a tremendous bullpen advantage (3.03 ERA vs. 4.30 ERA). Reds relievers have a 6.41 ERA in their last 10 games and a 7.07 ERA in their last five. Alfredo Simon has 4.59 ERA in six night games this season. Jeff Samardzija has a 2.84 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati this season. Reds 2B Brandon Phillips will likely miss this contest after exiting yesterday’s game with a bruised right heel.
Record: 112-81-6 (58.0%)
Bankroll: +81.26%
Sunday, June 22, 2014
MLB: Sunday's Later Plays
Play: Boston/Oakland over 7.5 -102 (Lester vs. Milone)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The A's are scoring 5.09 runs per game vs. LH, and in home games vs. southpaws that figure is 5.48. Jon Lester has a 1.47 WHIP over his last three starts. He also has a 3.91 ERA on the road vs. his 3.20 ERA overall. The Red Sox are getting on base, but they just aren't cashing in for runs. They are 2-for-19 with runners in scoring position in this series. That will eventually revert to normal. And it should start today against Tommy Milone, who Boston ripped on May 3 for six runs in four innings (including three homers).
Plays: Colorado +1.5 -140 (Lohse vs. Matzek) and Mil/Col under 10.5 +105 (Lohse vs. Matzek)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be a low-scoring affair (relatively speaking for Coors Field), with Colorado keeping it close if not winning outright. The Brewers would be 34-42 in they gave 1.5 runs per game. The Rockies would be 44-30 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Kyle Lohse has a 3.09 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP on the season. He is 5-1 with a 3.75 ERA in nine road outings. He has a 3.76 ERA in 11 career starts against Colorado. Tyler Matzek will go for the Rockies and he will face a Milwaukee team that hits 29 points lower against LH. In the last 10 games the Brewers are hitting .189 vs. southpaws. Matzek also might not have to face Aramis Ramirez (back) today. And with a thunderstorm possible today, there could be wind gusts of up to 17 mph in from center field and right field.
Record: 109-80-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +74.15%
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The A's are scoring 5.09 runs per game vs. LH, and in home games vs. southpaws that figure is 5.48. Jon Lester has a 1.47 WHIP over his last three starts. He also has a 3.91 ERA on the road vs. his 3.20 ERA overall. The Red Sox are getting on base, but they just aren't cashing in for runs. They are 2-for-19 with runners in scoring position in this series. That will eventually revert to normal. And it should start today against Tommy Milone, who Boston ripped on May 3 for six runs in four innings (including three homers).
Plays: Colorado +1.5 -140 (Lohse vs. Matzek) and Mil/Col under 10.5 +105 (Lohse vs. Matzek)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be a low-scoring affair (relatively speaking for Coors Field), with Colorado keeping it close if not winning outright. The Brewers would be 34-42 in they gave 1.5 runs per game. The Rockies would be 44-30 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Kyle Lohse has a 3.09 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP on the season. He is 5-1 with a 3.75 ERA in nine road outings. He has a 3.76 ERA in 11 career starts against Colorado. Tyler Matzek will go for the Rockies and he will face a Milwaukee team that hits 29 points lower against LH. In the last 10 games the Brewers are hitting .189 vs. southpaws. Matzek also might not have to face Aramis Ramirez (back) today. And with a thunderstorm possible today, there could be wind gusts of up to 17 mph in from center field and right field.
Record: 109-80-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +74.15%
MLB: Sunday's early play
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -150 (Danks vs. Hughes)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 45-30 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Minnesota would be 26-49 if it gave 1.5 rpg. I like John Danks to prevent a sweep here or at least keep it close. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts and has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in his last three. The Twins score exactly one less run per game vs. LH. Chicago hits 14 points higher and scores nearly a half-run more per game vs. RH. On April 3 Phil Hughes was battered by the Sox for four runs on seven hits in five innings. Chicago's bullpen is better on the road (3.31 ERA) than it is overall (3.78), and Minnesota's relievers are worse at home (3.94 ERA) than they are overall (3.67). Twins closer Glen Perkins blew the save on Friday and was shaky in last night's game.
Record: 109-80-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +74.15%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 45-30 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Minnesota would be 26-49 if it gave 1.5 rpg. I like John Danks to prevent a sweep here or at least keep it close. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts and has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in his last three. The Twins score exactly one less run per game vs. LH. Chicago hits 14 points higher and scores nearly a half-run more per game vs. RH. On April 3 Phil Hughes was battered by the Sox for four runs on seven hits in five innings. Chicago's bullpen is better on the road (3.31 ERA) than it is overall (3.78), and Minnesota's relievers are worse at home (3.94 ERA) than they are overall (3.67). Twins closer Glen Perkins blew the save on Friday and was shaky in last night's game.
Record: 109-80-6 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +74.15%
Saturday, June 21, 2014
MLB: Saturday's late play
Play: Texas +1.5 -125 (Marinez vs. Weaver)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 43-30 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 30-42 if they were giving 1.5 rpg. Texas is 17-6 against Los Angeles since the start of last season. The Angels have only seen Nick Martinez once (May 4) and he shut them out during 2.2 innings of relief. Jered Weaver has struggled of late, losing three of his last four starts while allowing at least four runs in each setback. He has a 5.79 ERA in four outings this month. Los Angeles' bullpen has a 7.94 ERA in its last five games.
Record: 108-76-6 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +92.65%
MLB: Saturday's Earlier Plays
Play: Boston/Oakland over 7.5 -120 (De La Rosa vs. Chavez)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams combine to average 8.98 runs when they face RH. Games for umpire Quinn Wolcott have averaged 8.75 runs this season after averaging 9.00 last season. Games at O.co Coliseum have averaged 8.59 runs. Both starters have registered high WHIPs over their last three games. Rubby De La Rosa is only in there because of an injury to Clay Buchholz. On the road he is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA. The A's are hitting .353 and are scoring 6.82 rpg vs. RH in their last five contests. Oakland's bullpen has a 4.29 ERA in its last 10 games.
Play: Colorado +1.5 -135 (Peralta vs. Friedrich)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 44-29 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Brewers would be 33-42 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Colorado banged out 16 hits last night. Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .487 at home. Milwaukee is hitting 31 points lower and is scoring a third of a run less per game vs. LH. Colorado is scoring 5.33 rpg vs. RH. The Rockies are hitting .328 and are scoring 7.72 rpg vs. RH. And in his only start at Colorado (last July), Wily Peralta allowed eight runs in 3.2 IP.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Miami over 7.5 +105 (deGrom vs. Koehler)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Mets road games average 8.71 runs while Marlins home games average 8.61 runs. Games umpired by Ron Kulpa have averaged 8.43 runs. Both of these starters would be good if their recent WHIPs were actually their ERAs, but they aren't. Jacob deGrom has a 2.13 WHIP and a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts and Tom Koehler has a 1.41 WHIP and a 6.61 ERA over the same time period. Casey McGehee has hit safely in 14 of 15 games and David Wright owns a five-game hitting streak and a four-game RBI streak. Marlins CF Jake Marisnick is 6-for-19 with four stolen bases since being promoted from Triple-A New Orleans.
Play: Detroit/Cleveland under 8.5 -106 (Verlander vs. Bauer)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Justin Verlander has lost his last three starts, but he is still Justin Verlander. He is capable at spinning shutouts. And he might be catching the Indians at the right time, as they are hitting just .228 and scoring 2.94 runs per game in the last 10 vs. RH. The Tigers have averaged just 3.21 runs in their last five against RH. And four of Trevor Bauer's seven starts have been quality ones.
Record: 108-76-6 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +92.65%
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams combine to average 8.98 runs when they face RH. Games for umpire Quinn Wolcott have averaged 8.75 runs this season after averaging 9.00 last season. Games at O.co Coliseum have averaged 8.59 runs. Both starters have registered high WHIPs over their last three games. Rubby De La Rosa is only in there because of an injury to Clay Buchholz. On the road he is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA. The A's are hitting .353 and are scoring 6.82 rpg vs. RH in their last five contests. Oakland's bullpen has a 4.29 ERA in its last 10 games.
Play: Colorado +1.5 -135 (Peralta vs. Friedrich)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 44-29 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Brewers would be 33-42 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Colorado banged out 16 hits last night. Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .487 at home. Milwaukee is hitting 31 points lower and is scoring a third of a run less per game vs. LH. Colorado is scoring 5.33 rpg vs. RH. The Rockies are hitting .328 and are scoring 7.72 rpg vs. RH. And in his only start at Colorado (last July), Wily Peralta allowed eight runs in 3.2 IP.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Miami over 7.5 +105 (deGrom vs. Koehler)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Mets road games average 8.71 runs while Marlins home games average 8.61 runs. Games umpired by Ron Kulpa have averaged 8.43 runs. Both of these starters would be good if their recent WHIPs were actually their ERAs, but they aren't. Jacob deGrom has a 2.13 WHIP and a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts and Tom Koehler has a 1.41 WHIP and a 6.61 ERA over the same time period. Casey McGehee has hit safely in 14 of 15 games and David Wright owns a five-game hitting streak and a four-game RBI streak. Marlins CF Jake Marisnick is 6-for-19 with four stolen bases since being promoted from Triple-A New Orleans.
Play: Detroit/Cleveland under 8.5 -106 (Verlander vs. Bauer)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Justin Verlander has lost his last three starts, but he is still Justin Verlander. He is capable at spinning shutouts. And he might be catching the Indians at the right time, as they are hitting just .228 and scoring 2.94 runs per game in the last 10 vs. RH. The Tigers have averaged just 3.21 runs in their last five against RH. And four of Trevor Bauer's seven starts have been quality ones.
Bankroll: +92.65%
Friday, June 20, 2014
MLB: Friday's play
Play: L.A. Dodgers/San Diego over 6.5 -105 (Haren vs. Kennedy)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Even when going against a low total like this I like to pick my spots. I believe the situation calls for it here. Games involving either of these teams average well over this total, and neither starter is in good form right now. Dan Haren has a 4.58 ERA in his last three outings while Ian Kennedy has posted a 4.91 mark over that same time period. Haren has allowed at least one homer in seven straight games. The Dodgers are hitting 43 points higher and are scoring 1.07 more runs per game vs. RH. Adrian Gonzalez has a .347 career average against the Padres. Matt Kemp is 13-for-27 with nine RBI in his last seven games.
Record: 107-76-6 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +87.30%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Even when going against a low total like this I like to pick my spots. I believe the situation calls for it here. Games involving either of these teams average well over this total, and neither starter is in good form right now. Dan Haren has a 4.58 ERA in his last three outings while Ian Kennedy has posted a 4.91 mark over that same time period. Haren has allowed at least one homer in seven straight games. The Dodgers are hitting 43 points higher and are scoring 1.07 more runs per game vs. RH. Adrian Gonzalez has a .347 career average against the Padres. Matt Kemp is 13-for-27 with nine RBI in his last seven games.
Record: 107-76-6 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +87.30%
Thursday, June 19, 2014
MLB: Thursday's Play
Play: Toronto -113 (Huchison vs. action)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Toronto gets another good opportunity to break out of its scoring slump when it faces David Phelps. He has a 6.38 ERA in his last three starts and a 4.32 ERA in 2014. On April 5, Phelps allowed two homers to the Blue Jays in two innings of relief. He has a 4.26 ERA lifetime against them. Toronto will send Drew Huchison to the bump tonight. In his last six games he put up two clunkers. But, in the other four contests (at Baltimore, at Detroit, at Boston and at Texas), his teams went 4-0 with him allowing just one run in 28.2 IP. The Jays hit 13 points higher and the Yankees hit 16 points lighter and score one less run per game vs. RH. And Toronto's bullpen has gotten better. Its members have a combined 3.34 ERA over the last 10 games.
Record: 107-75-6 (58.8%)
Bankroll: +93.09%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Toronto gets another good opportunity to break out of its scoring slump when it faces David Phelps. He has a 6.38 ERA in his last three starts and a 4.32 ERA in 2014. On April 5, Phelps allowed two homers to the Blue Jays in two innings of relief. He has a 4.26 ERA lifetime against them. Toronto will send Drew Huchison to the bump tonight. In his last six games he put up two clunkers. But, in the other four contests (at Baltimore, at Detroit, at Boston and at Texas), his teams went 4-0 with him allowing just one run in 28.2 IP. The Jays hit 13 points higher and the Yankees hit 16 points lighter and score one less run per game vs. RH. And Toronto's bullpen has gotten better. Its members have a combined 3.34 ERA over the last 10 games.
Record: 107-75-6 (58.8%)
Bankroll: +93.09%
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's Plays
Plays: Toronto +101 (Buehrle vs. action) and Toronto/N.Y. Yankees over 8.5 -120 (Buehrle vs. Whitley)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think facing a young pitcher like Chase Whitley is all the Blue Jays will need to reassert their offensive dominance. Whitley has yet to experience much adversity in his six starts, and, until very recently, Toronto was blowing teams away. As a team it still leads the majors in homers 93 (it has six more than Colorado and 11 more than Oakland). Jays LF Melky Cabrera has a 17-game hitting streak against the Yankees and Jose Reyes has hit safely in 16 of his last 17 games overall. Toronto starter Mark Buehrle has dominated this season, and I expect his side to win on Wednesday, but he won't be shutting out the Bombers. Buehrle is 1-10 with a 6.02 ERA in 16 career starts against New York. And he appears to have come back to earth after giving up four runs in 6.1 IP vs. Baltimore in his last outing. Blue Jays games average 8.79 runs. Games at Yankee Stadium have averaged 8.5 runs. Toronto hits 14 points higher against RH and New York hits 18 points higher and scores one run more per game vs. LH. Neither of these bullpens brings much relief, as Jays relievers have a 4.37 ERA and the Yankees relievers have a 4.05 figure. Those numbers are even worse (4.64 ERA and 4.88 ERA, respectively) in the home/away splits.
Record: 106-74-6 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +94.06%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think facing a young pitcher like Chase Whitley is all the Blue Jays will need to reassert their offensive dominance. Whitley has yet to experience much adversity in his six starts, and, until very recently, Toronto was blowing teams away. As a team it still leads the majors in homers 93 (it has six more than Colorado and 11 more than Oakland). Jays LF Melky Cabrera has a 17-game hitting streak against the Yankees and Jose Reyes has hit safely in 16 of his last 17 games overall. Toronto starter Mark Buehrle has dominated this season, and I expect his side to win on Wednesday, but he won't be shutting out the Bombers. Buehrle is 1-10 with a 6.02 ERA in 16 career starts against New York. And he appears to have come back to earth after giving up four runs in 6.1 IP vs. Baltimore in his last outing. Blue Jays games average 8.79 runs. Games at Yankee Stadium have averaged 8.5 runs. Toronto hits 14 points higher against RH and New York hits 18 points higher and scores one run more per game vs. LH. Neither of these bullpens brings much relief, as Jays relievers have a 4.37 ERA and the Yankees relievers have a 4.05 figure. Those numbers are even worse (4.64 ERA and 4.88 ERA, respectively) in the home/away splits.
Record: 106-74-6 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +94.06%
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Plays
Play: Cincinnati -126 (Cueto vs. Cumpton)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds are healthy again and they've averaged 5.2 runs over the last six games. They have taken five of the last six against the Pirates and seven of the last 10 regular-season meetings at PNC Park. Cincinnati is fresh off of a 19-hit performance against Milwaukee. And the Reds will have Johnny Cueto on the mound for this one. Cueto is 15-4 with a 2.15 ERA in 23 career starts against Pittsburgh. This season Cueto has a 1.85 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. In his last start he struck out 12 Dodgers (against zero walks) in six innings and allowed just three hits. For the Pirates, Brandon Cumpton gets the nod. He has a 6.06 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP overall and a 9.64 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP in his last three starts. Against RH, Cincinnati hits 20 points higher and Pittsburgh hits 21 points lower and is scoring a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. The Pirates bullpen also has a 6.40 ERA over the last 10 games, and that figure is three runs higher that that of the Reds (3.45 ERA).
Record: 105-74-6 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +89.54%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds are healthy again and they've averaged 5.2 runs over the last six games. They have taken five of the last six against the Pirates and seven of the last 10 regular-season meetings at PNC Park. Cincinnati is fresh off of a 19-hit performance against Milwaukee. And the Reds will have Johnny Cueto on the mound for this one. Cueto is 15-4 with a 2.15 ERA in 23 career starts against Pittsburgh. This season Cueto has a 1.85 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. In his last start he struck out 12 Dodgers (against zero walks) in six innings and allowed just three hits. For the Pirates, Brandon Cumpton gets the nod. He has a 6.06 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP overall and a 9.64 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP in his last three starts. Against RH, Cincinnati hits 20 points higher and Pittsburgh hits 21 points lower and is scoring a quarter-run less per game vs. RH. The Pirates bullpen also has a 6.40 ERA over the last 10 games, and that figure is three runs higher that that of the Reds (3.45 ERA).
Record: 105-74-6 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +89.54%
Monday, June 16, 2014
MLB: Monday's Play
Play: N.Y. Mets/St. Louis over 7.5 -105 (deGrom vs. Martinez)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Carlos Martinez will start in place of an injured Adam Wainwright. This will be Martinez's second career start (the other came on 08/08/13). He has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP overall and has blown all five (yes, all five) of his save chances this season. In 2013 Martinez had a 5.08 ERA in 21 appearances. The Mets will run Jacob deGrom out there and, though I think he has a bright future, he has allowed seven runs on 14 his in 10.2 IP over his last two starts. The Cardinals hit 21 points higher and score a half-run more per game vs. RH. New York's bullpen has a 3.96 ERA in its last 10 games and St. Louis relievers have combined for a 3.62 ERA overall. Mets road games average 9.24 runs and Cardinals home games average 8.24 runs.
Record: 104-74-6 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +84.27%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Carlos Martinez will start in place of an injured Adam Wainwright. This will be Martinez's second career start (the other came on 08/08/13). He has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP overall and has blown all five (yes, all five) of his save chances this season. In 2013 Martinez had a 5.08 ERA in 21 appearances. The Mets will run Jacob deGrom out there and, though I think he has a bright future, he has allowed seven runs on 14 his in 10.2 IP over his last two starts. The Cardinals hit 21 points higher and score a half-run more per game vs. RH. New York's bullpen has a 3.96 ERA in its last 10 games and St. Louis relievers have combined for a 3.62 ERA overall. Mets road games average 9.24 runs and Cardinals home games average 8.24 runs.
Record: 104-74-6 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +84.27%
Sunday, June 15, 2014
MLB: Sunday's Play
Play: Toronto/Baltimore over 9 -120 (Happ vs. Tillman)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Mr. Inconsistency (Chris Tillman) will be on the bump for the Orioles on Sunday afternoon. I faded him two starts ago when he gave up five earned runs before his team recorded four outs at Texas. He has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 2014 and a 4.61 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in his last three starts. Tillman has a 4.61 ERA in two starts this season vs. the Blue Jays. For Toronto, J.A. Happ will take his turn in the rotation. He's been even worse, recording a 6.11 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in his last three starts. For the season Happ has a 4.37 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. The bullpens for these teams offer little reprieve. Baltimore relievers have a 4.44 ERA overall and a 4.83 ERA on the road. O's relievers have a 3.64 ERA overall and a 3.78 mark at home. Both of these lineups are chock-full of dangerous hitters. And how long will Nelson Cruz (0 HR in 11 games), Jose Bautista (0 HR in 8 games) and Edwin Encarnacion (1 HR in 11 games) stay silent? Baltimore's Manny Machado has five hits in the last two games and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have combined to go 9-for-20 lifetime vs. Happ. The Orioles are hitting .316 and scoring 6.23 runs per game vs. LH over their last five contests. The Jays are hitting 118 points higher against RH in their last 10 games. Also notable: given Sunday's start time you won't have to worry about the shadows that plagued hitters during Saturday's game, which had a 4:05 first pitch.
Record: 104-73-6 (58.8%)
Bankroll: +89.97%
Saturday, June 14, 2014
MLB: Saturday's Play
Play: Toronto/Baltimore over 9 +110 (Dickey vs. Norris)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams rank first and fifth, respectively, in home runs. Somehow Nelson Cruz, the major-league home run and RBI leader, has gone 10 games without either. I'm gonna do the Babe Ruth-guarantee-for-the-dying-kid-in-the-hospital-thing here and predict that he socks a homer this afternoon. Cruz will, at the very least, drive in a run. The Orioles also will have Manny Machado (who had three hits last night) in the lineup since his suspension appeal has yet to be heard. On Friday Baltimore left nine on and was 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position. The O's are not the Padres, so I am confident that they will figure out how to plate some runs. Baltimore will face R.A. Dickey, who against the O's is 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career appearances. Dickey has a 1.41 WHIP this season and a 1.89 mark in his last three outings. He also has a road ERA of 5.74 and has given up at least one homer in five straight starts. Bud Norris has been decent for Baltimore this season, but he has a 4.26 ERA in his last three games. And prior to his last rotation turn Norris registered four bad starts out of five. He'll see a Toronto side whose games average nine runs. Neither starter strikes out many guys, thus allowing rallies to continue. Bullpen-wise both squads are in bad shape. Jays relievers have a 4.47 ERA while their Baltimore counterparts have a 3.64 figure. Those numbers are even worse in the home-away splits. The Orioles also score a half-run more per game vs. RH. And games umpired by Mike Estabrook had averaged 9.92 runs.
Record: 104-72-6 (59.1%)
Bankroll: +95.85%
Friday, June 13, 2014
No plays for Friday
Subscribers will be extended another day.
Good luck if you're on something!
Record: 104-72-6 (59.1%)
Bankroll: +95.85%
Good luck if you're on something!
Record: 104-72-6 (59.1%)
Bankroll: +95.85%
Thursday, June 12, 2014
MLB: Thursday's Play
Play: Baltimore -110 (action vs. Gausman)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Orioles have allowed one run over their last three games and they will face a Blue Jays team that has scored just seven runs in their last five games, including three shutouts. Kevin Gausman gets his turn on the hill tonight and all he did last time out was hold Oakland to one run over seven innings. He has a better WHIP (1.18) than Mark Buehrle, who has pitched out of his mind this season and is due to return to earth at some point. Baltimore's bullpen is a run better than Toronto's overall and 1.31 runs better in the home/away splits.
Record: 103-72-6 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +90.65%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Orioles have allowed one run over their last three games and they will face a Blue Jays team that has scored just seven runs in their last five games, including three shutouts. Kevin Gausman gets his turn on the hill tonight and all he did last time out was hold Oakland to one run over seven innings. He has a better WHIP (1.18) than Mark Buehrle, who has pitched out of his mind this season and is due to return to earth at some point. Baltimore's bullpen is a run better than Toronto's overall and 1.31 runs better in the home/away splits.
Record: 103-72-6 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +90.65%
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's Oak/LAA
Play: Oakland/L.A. Angels over 8 -105 (Milone vs. Weaver)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over eight runs both overall and in the home/away splits. Games umpired by John Tumpane have averaged 10.31 runs. Jered Weaver has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. On June 1 he allowed the A's six runs on 11 hits over six innings. Oakland hasn't homered in its last two games, but prior to that it had homered in 16 straight contents. Tommy Milone has a 5.40 ERA in six road starts. Mike Trout has hit safely in 17 of his last 18 games, and the Angels hit LH better and the A's hit RH better. Will Josh Donaldson make another error leading to an unearned run for Los Angeles? Donaldson has four errors in his last two games and 13 on the season which ties him for the most in baseball.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over eight runs both overall and in the home/away splits. Games umpired by John Tumpane have averaged 10.31 runs. Jered Weaver has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. On June 1 he allowed the A's six runs on 11 hits over six innings. Oakland hasn't homered in its last two games, but prior to that it had homered in 16 straight contents. Tommy Milone has a 5.40 ERA in six road starts. Mike Trout has hit safely in 17 of his last 18 games, and the Angels hit LH better and the A's hit RH better. Will Josh Donaldson make another error leading to an unearned run for Los Angeles? Donaldson has four errors in his last two games and 13 on the season which ties him for the most in baseball.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
MLB: Wednesday's Atl/Col
Play: Colorado +1.5 -135 (Teheran vs. Matzek)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Atlanta would be 21-42 if it gave 1.5 runs per game and the Rockies would be 39-25 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Colorado is hitting .324 and scoring 7.40 rpg vs. RH at home. Rockies pitcher Tyler Matzek will make his major-league debut, and he pitched well at Colorado Springs (5-4, 4.05 ERA). Braves OF Justin Upton (hamstring) will play, but how effective will he be? Atlanta's bullpen has a 3.97 ERA on the road, a 4.23 ERA in its last 10 games and a 4.91 ERA in its last five games. Troy Tulowitzki, who is hitting .349, has gone hitless in the first two games of the series. I say he gets at least one tonight and I'm betting it will come when it counts.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Atlanta would be 21-42 if it gave 1.5 runs per game and the Rockies would be 39-25 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Colorado is hitting .324 and scoring 7.40 rpg vs. RH at home. Rockies pitcher Tyler Matzek will make his major-league debut, and he pitched well at Colorado Springs (5-4, 4.05 ERA). Braves OF Justin Upton (hamstring) will play, but how effective will he be? Atlanta's bullpen has a 3.97 ERA on the road, a 4.23 ERA in its last 10 games and a 4.91 ERA in its last five games. Troy Tulowitzki, who is hitting .349, has gone hitless in the first two games of the series. I say he gets at least one tonight and I'm betting it will come when it counts.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
MLB: Wednesday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Play: Miami/Texas under 8.5 -112 (Turner vs. Darvish)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins are scoring about a half-run less per game against RH and the Rangers are scoring 1.64 fewer rpg vs. RH. Texas has never seen Jacob Turner and Yu Darvish has a 2.36 ERA. Miami has never seen Darvish and he is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in seven career interleague games. Contests with umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish have somehow averaged 10.27 runs this season. But make no mistake: he is an "under ump." From 2010 to 2013 his rpg was between 7.23 and 8.06. The unders were 71-50 (58.7%) in those games.
Play: Arizona/Houston over 8 +100 (McCarthy vs. Keuchel)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over this total both overall and in the home/away splits. Brandon McCarthy has a 5.13 ERA overall and a 6.75 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in his last three starts. Arizona is scoring nearly one run more per game vs. LH. Dallas Keuchel has lost both of his previous starts against the Diamondbacks and has a 7.20 ERA against them. Houston's bullpen is horrendous (4.73 ERA) and Arizona's relievers are shaky (3.64 ERA). David Peralta (hits in eight of nine games) and Paul Goldschmidt (10-for-25, 3 HR, 10 RBI in last seven games) have been hot.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins are scoring about a half-run less per game against RH and the Rangers are scoring 1.64 fewer rpg vs. RH. Texas has never seen Jacob Turner and Yu Darvish has a 2.36 ERA. Miami has never seen Darvish and he is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in seven career interleague games. Contests with umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish have somehow averaged 10.27 runs this season. But make no mistake: he is an "under ump." From 2010 to 2013 his rpg was between 7.23 and 8.06. The unders were 71-50 (58.7%) in those games.
Play: Arizona/Houston over 8 +100 (McCarthy vs. Keuchel)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over this total both overall and in the home/away splits. Brandon McCarthy has a 5.13 ERA overall and a 6.75 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in his last three starts. Arizona is scoring nearly one run more per game vs. LH. Dallas Keuchel has lost both of his previous starts against the Diamondbacks and has a 7.20 ERA against them. Houston's bullpen is horrendous (4.73 ERA) and Arizona's relievers are shaky (3.64 ERA). David Peralta (hits in eight of nine games) and Paul Goldschmidt (10-for-25, 3 HR, 10 RBI in last seven games) have been hot.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
MLB: Wednesday's 7 p.m. ET plays
Play: Chi. Cubs/Pittsburgh under 7.5 -115 (Hammel vs. Cumpton)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Play: N.Y. Mets +114 (action vs. deGrom)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Rookie Jacob deGrom appears to be the real deal. And I like the Mets to get him some run support for his first career victory. deGrom has a 1.16 WHIP and a .194 BAA. New York scored six runs on Tuesday night and I expect more of the same against Wily Peralta. He has a 5.94 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last three starts. The Mets have been really unlucky this season. They have lost 21 games after holding the lead. Based on their Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, their Expected Won-Loss Record is 32-32. Their bullpen is equal to that of the Brewers.
Plays: St. Louis -127 (Wacha vs. action) and STL/TB over 7 +102 (Wacha vs. Bedard)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like both clubs to scratch out a few runs and for the Cardinals to plate at least one more than the Rays. I'm picking tonight to be the night for Tampa Bay to break out of its scoring slump. Games at Tropicana Field average 8.3 runs. The Rays have struggled to score runs because they are 5-for-75 with RISP over their last 10 games. Sooner or later that will turn around. Both of these bullpens are shaky and Erik Bedard has a 5.60 ERA in five career starts against St. Louis.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jason Hammel is having a remarkable year (6-3, 2.53 ERA) and he has beaten the Pirates twice so far this season. He hasn't allowed a run over his last two starts. Pittsburgh players are a combined 15-for-80 (.187 BA) against him. Brandon Cumpton seems to like PNC Park. He has a 3.00 ERA in six games there. The Cubs have never seen him. Both of these bullpens are good overall and in the home/away splits.
Play: N.Y. Mets +114 (action vs. deGrom)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Rookie Jacob deGrom appears to be the real deal. And I like the Mets to get him some run support for his first career victory. deGrom has a 1.16 WHIP and a .194 BAA. New York scored six runs on Tuesday night and I expect more of the same against Wily Peralta. He has a 5.94 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last three starts. The Mets have been really unlucky this season. They have lost 21 games after holding the lead. Based on their Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, their Expected Won-Loss Record is 32-32. Their bullpen is equal to that of the Brewers.
Plays: St. Louis -127 (Wacha vs. action) and STL/TB over 7 +102 (Wacha vs. Bedard)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like both clubs to scratch out a few runs and for the Cardinals to plate at least one more than the Rays. I'm picking tonight to be the night for Tampa Bay to break out of its scoring slump. Games at Tropicana Field average 8.3 runs. The Rays have struggled to score runs because they are 5-for-75 with RISP over their last 10 games. Sooner or later that will turn around. Both of these bullpens are shaky and Erik Bedard has a 5.60 ERA in five career starts against St. Louis.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
No plays for today
Subscribers will be credited an additional day.
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7%
Monday, June 9, 2014
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Chi. Cubs +1.5 -160 (Jackson vs. Morton)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pirates would be 14-48 if they gave 1.5 runs per game and the Cubs would be 36-24 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Chicago has won five of its last six. It will start Edwin Jackson, who is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh. Charlie Morton is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Chicago's bullpen has a 2.26 ERA on the road.
Record: 99-68-5 (59.3%)
Bankroll: +93.51%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pirates would be 14-48 if they gave 1.5 runs per game and the Cubs would be 36-24 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Chicago has won five of its last six. It will start Edwin Jackson, who is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh. Charlie Morton is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs. Chicago's bullpen has a 2.26 ERA on the road.
Record: 99-68-5 (59.3%)
Bankroll: +93.51%
Sunday, June 8, 2014
MLB: Sunday's plays
Play: N.Y. Yankees +120 (Kuroda vs. action)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Yankees have won five of the last six at Kauffman Stadium and James Shields in 8-15 against them in his career. Shields has a 7.36 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. New York will start Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 3.34 ERA lifetime against Kansas City. Kuroda has pitched well since May 1 and, even though he has allowed homers, I'm not worried about that today. The Royals are last in the majors in home runs (28). Yankees DH Carlos Beltran has a .321 average and 13 RBI in 12 career games against Kansas City.
Play: Miami -106 (Alvarez vs. action)
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez has three shutouts this season and hasn't allowed a run in his last 21 innings. He hasn't allowed a homer in 30 innings. He'll face a Cubs team that is hitting .216 and scoring 1.5 less runs per game vs. RH. Chicago hurler Jake Arrieta has a 1.60 WHIP in 2014. Miami's bullpen has a 2.08 ERA over the last five games and, though Cubs relievers have a collective 3.14 ERA overall, that number is 4.15 at Wrigley Field.
Record: 98-67-5 (59.4%)
Bankroll: +93.84%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Yankees have won five of the last six at Kauffman Stadium and James Shields in 8-15 against them in his career. Shields has a 7.36 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. New York will start Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 3.34 ERA lifetime against Kansas City. Kuroda has pitched well since May 1 and, even though he has allowed homers, I'm not worried about that today. The Royals are last in the majors in home runs (28). Yankees DH Carlos Beltran has a .321 average and 13 RBI in 12 career games against Kansas City.
Play: Miami -106 (Alvarez vs. action)
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez has three shutouts this season and hasn't allowed a run in his last 21 innings. He hasn't allowed a homer in 30 innings. He'll face a Cubs team that is hitting .216 and scoring 1.5 less runs per game vs. RH. Chicago hurler Jake Arrieta has a 1.60 WHIP in 2014. Miami's bullpen has a 2.08 ERA over the last five games and, though Cubs relievers have a collective 3.14 ERA overall, that number is 4.15 at Wrigley Field.
Record: 98-67-5 (59.4%)
Bankroll: +93.84%
Saturday, June 7, 2014
MLB: Saturday's Was/SD
Play: Washington/San Diego over 6.5 -115 (Treinen vs. Cashner)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The way the Nationals have been scoring, they may eclipse this total on their own. Washington has plated 44 runs in its last seven games. Tonight it will face Andrew Cashner, who hasn't started a game since May 13. In his career, Cashner is 2-2 with a 4.87 ERA in eight games against the Nats. The Padres will face Blake Treinen, who has a 1.60 WHIP. Over the past two-plus seasons, the over is 48-31 in games umpired by Paul Emmel and the average score was just under nine runs.
Record: 97-66-5 (59.5%)
Bankroll: +94.62%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The way the Nationals have been scoring, they may eclipse this total on their own. Washington has plated 44 runs in its last seven games. Tonight it will face Andrew Cashner, who hasn't started a game since May 13. In his career, Cashner is 2-2 with a 4.87 ERA in eight games against the Nats. The Padres will face Blake Treinen, who has a 1.60 WHIP. Over the past two-plus seasons, the over is 48-31 in games umpired by Paul Emmel and the average score was just under nine runs.
Record: 97-66-5 (59.5%)
Bankroll: +94.62%
MLB: Saturday's Bos/Det
Play: Boston +113 (Lester vs. action)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jon Lester looked like a world-beater in his last outing, striking out 12 over seven scoreless innings. He has 95 Ks in 80 innings, a 3.15 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. For the season, Max Scherzer has nearly identical numbers, but he has a 1.68 WHIP and a 7.32 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers are scoring 1.09 fewer runs per game vs. LH. They have dropped their last four games vs. southpaws and in their last 10 games against them are hitting .188 and scoring 2.43 rpg. The Red Sox bullpen boasts a 2.87 ERA and Detroit relievers have a 4.66 ERA. Tigers C Alex Avila is out tonight as he suffered a concussion in last night's contest.
Record: 97-66-5 (59.5%)
Bankroll: +94.62%
Friday, June 6, 2014
MLB: Friday's NYM/SF
Play: San Francisco -135 (action vs. Cain)
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Giants have the best home record (19-9) and Matt Cain has a 3.16 ERA in 140 career starts at AT&T Park. He has a 2.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in his last three starts. Cain has a 3.57 ERA in 12 career starts against the Mets. San Francisco hits RH and LH the same. New York is hitting 29 points lower and scoring a one-third of a run less per game vs. RH. The Giants bullpen is a run better overall and 1.5 runs better in the home/away splits than that of the Mets. In its last series, New York went 4-for-30 with RISP and was swept by the Cubs.
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Giants have the best home record (19-9) and Matt Cain has a 3.16 ERA in 140 career starts at AT&T Park. He has a 2.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in his last three starts. Cain has a 3.57 ERA in 12 career starts against the Mets. San Francisco hits RH and LH the same. New York is hitting 29 points lower and scoring a one-third of a run less per game vs. RH. The Giants bullpen is a run better overall and 1.5 runs better in the home/away splits than that of the Mets. In its last series, New York went 4-for-30 with RISP and was swept by the Cubs.
Bankroll: +111.22%
MLB: Friday's Atl/Ari
Play: Atlanta/Arizona over 7.5 +100 (Teheran vs. McCarthy)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I really like the way this game sets up. You have one struggling pitcher (Brandon McCarthy) and one excellent pitcher (Julio Teheran). But that excellent pitcher has to face a team (Arizona) that has banged out 39 hits and 28 runs in its last two games. The tablesetters have been getting it done for the Diamondbacks, as their the leadoff and second batters in their lineup have combined for a .441 average over the last eight games. In his last start McCarthy allowed five runs for the second consecutive time. Games at Chase Field have averaged 9.45 runs.
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I really like the way this game sets up. You have one struggling pitcher (Brandon McCarthy) and one excellent pitcher (Julio Teheran). But that excellent pitcher has to face a team (Arizona) that has banged out 39 hits and 28 runs in its last two games. The tablesetters have been getting it done for the Diamondbacks, as their the leadoff and second batters in their lineup have combined for a .441 average over the last eight games. In his last start McCarthy allowed five runs for the second consecutive time. Games at Chase Field have averaged 9.45 runs.
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
MLB: Friday's LA/Col
Play: Colorado +1.5 -140 (Ryu vs. Butler)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 38-21 in they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Dodgers would be 24-37 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has never pitched at Coors Field, and he allowed 10 hits in his last start. Colorado is hitting .288 against LH and is hitting .328 overall at home. The Rockies will send rookie Eddie Butler to the mound tonight for his major-league debut. He compiled a 2.05 ERA with 238 strikouts in 284 innings over his minor-league career. The Dodgers bullpen has a 4.85 ERA on the road.
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 38-21 in they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Dodgers would be 24-37 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has never pitched at Coors Field, and he allowed 10 hits in his last start. Colorado is hitting .288 against LH and is hitting .328 overall at home. The Rockies will send rookie Eddie Butler to the mound tonight for his major-league debut. He compiled a 2.05 ERA with 238 strikouts in 284 innings over his minor-league career. The Dodgers bullpen has a 4.85 ERA on the road.
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
MLB: Earlier Friday plays
Play: St. Louis +1.5 -155 (Lynn vs. Stroman)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cardinals would be 43-18 in they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Blue Jays would be 32-29 if they gave 1.5 rpg. St. Louis is scoring nearly one more run per game vs. RH, while Toronto is scoring nearly a half-run less per game vs. RH. Also, the Cardinals bullpen is nearly a run better per game than that of Toronto. St. Louis will run out Lance Lynn, who has a 3.48 ERA overall and a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts. In Lynn's only career appearance against the Jays, he threw three scoreless innings and allowed just one hit. Toronto will start rookie Marcus Stroman, who sports a 7.30 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. The Jays also may be without (or at least have a limited) Edwin Encarnacion. He missed yesterday's game with a back problem. Cardinals 3B Matt Carpenter has been on a tear. He is 8-for-11 in his last three contests and has hit safely in 17 of the last 18.
Play: Tampa Bay -156 (action vs. Bedard)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mariners are batting only .238 as a team and are scoring about a run less per game vs. LH in their last 10 contests. They will face their former pitcher, Erik Bedard, tonight. Bedard has alternated being horrible and brilliant this season and has a 4.08 ERA. I'm going with him being "brilliant" tonight or at least decent as I think Tampa Bay has more incentive for a win than do the Mariners. Bedard has a 4.02 lifetime ERA (seven starts) against Seattle. Mariners starter Chris Young has a 9.00 ERA in two career starts against the Rays and he has allowed 10 home runs so far this season. This also will be Seattle's first game on artificial turf in 2014.
Play: Cincinnati -133 (action vs. Cueto)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies have been outscored 39-15 during their six-game losing skid and they now will have to contend with Johnny Cueto, who leads the world in ERA (1.68) and who is allowing opponents a .151 batting average. Cueto has allowed just seven homers in 91 innings. Philadelphia hits 35 points lighter and scores one run less per game vs. RH. Cincinnati scores more against LH and scores about one run more per game vs. LH at home. Phillies starter Cole Hamels has been suspect this season (4.01 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cardinals would be 43-18 in they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Blue Jays would be 32-29 if they gave 1.5 rpg. St. Louis is scoring nearly one more run per game vs. RH, while Toronto is scoring nearly a half-run less per game vs. RH. Also, the Cardinals bullpen is nearly a run better per game than that of Toronto. St. Louis will run out Lance Lynn, who has a 3.48 ERA overall and a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts. In Lynn's only career appearance against the Jays, he threw three scoreless innings and allowed just one hit. Toronto will start rookie Marcus Stroman, who sports a 7.30 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. The Jays also may be without (or at least have a limited) Edwin Encarnacion. He missed yesterday's game with a back problem. Cardinals 3B Matt Carpenter has been on a tear. He is 8-for-11 in his last three contests and has hit safely in 17 of the last 18.
Play: Tampa Bay -156 (action vs. Bedard)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mariners are batting only .238 as a team and are scoring about a run less per game vs. LH in their last 10 contests. They will face their former pitcher, Erik Bedard, tonight. Bedard has alternated being horrible and brilliant this season and has a 4.08 ERA. I'm going with him being "brilliant" tonight or at least decent as I think Tampa Bay has more incentive for a win than do the Mariners. Bedard has a 4.02 lifetime ERA (seven starts) against Seattle. Mariners starter Chris Young has a 9.00 ERA in two career starts against the Rays and he has allowed 10 home runs so far this season. This also will be Seattle's first game on artificial turf in 2014.
Play: Cincinnati -133 (action vs. Cueto)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies have been outscored 39-15 during their six-game losing skid and they now will have to contend with Johnny Cueto, who leads the world in ERA (1.68) and who is allowing opponents a .151 batting average. Cueto has allowed just seven homers in 91 innings. Philadelphia hits 35 points lighter and scores one run less per game vs. RH. Cincinnati scores more against LH and scores about one run more per game vs. LH at home. Phillies starter Cole Hamels has been suspect this season (4.01 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Record: 95-62-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +111.22%
Thursday, June 5, 2014
MLB: Thursday's Bal/Tex
Play: Texas -113 (action vs. Lewis)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This will be the Orioles' final game on a 10-day road trip. Tonight Baltimore will run out Chris Tillman, who, to put it nicely, has been a bit erratic lately. In two of his last four starts he allowed 14 ER in 6.2 IP. Tillman has a 5.51 ERA on the road and a 5.49 ERA in night games. He will have to deal with Adrian Beltre, who has nine homers and 18 RBI in his last 10 games against the O's. Texas has worn out RH of late, scoring 1.69 more runs per game against them in the last 10 games. At home the Rangers bullpen has a 3.38 ERA.
Record: 93-61-5 (60.4%)
Bankroll: +107.40%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This will be the Orioles' final game on a 10-day road trip. Tonight Baltimore will run out Chris Tillman, who, to put it nicely, has been a bit erratic lately. In two of his last four starts he allowed 14 ER in 6.2 IP. Tillman has a 5.51 ERA on the road and a 5.49 ERA in night games. He will have to deal with Adrian Beltre, who has nine homers and 18 RBI in his last 10 games against the O's. Texas has worn out RH of late, scoring 1.69 more runs per game against them in the last 10 games. At home the Rangers bullpen has a 3.38 ERA.
Record: 93-61-5 (60.4%)
Bankroll: +107.40%
MLB: Early Thursday plays
Play: New York -137 (action vs. Tanaka)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oakland should run into a buzzsaw today when it faces Masahiro Tanaka. He is 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA overall, is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA at home and, in day games, he is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA. The Yankees also will have Carlos Beltran in the lineup for the first time in 21 games. The A's will start Drew Pomeranz and he has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three starts. New York is scoring nearly one more run per game vs. LH.
Play: Detroit -153 (action vs. Verlander)
Time: 1:08 p.m.
Reasoning: I like Justin Verlander to play the stopper role today. He has a 1.04 WHIP in eight career starts against Toronto. In his last five starts against the Blue Jays (dating back to 2010) he has a 1.32 ERA. Toronto hurler J.A. Happ was rocked in his last start. He allowed six runs on nine hits in 7.2 IP against Kansas City. Toronto is scoring a half-run less per game on the road.
Record: 93-61-5 (60.4%)
Bankroll: +107.40%
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oakland should run into a buzzsaw today when it faces Masahiro Tanaka. He is 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA overall, is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA at home and, in day games, he is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA. The Yankees also will have Carlos Beltran in the lineup for the first time in 21 games. The A's will start Drew Pomeranz and he has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three starts. New York is scoring nearly one more run per game vs. LH.
Play: Detroit -153 (action vs. Verlander)
Time: 1:08 p.m.
Reasoning: I like Justin Verlander to play the stopper role today. He has a 1.04 WHIP in eight career starts against Toronto. In his last five starts against the Blue Jays (dating back to 2010) he has a 1.32 ERA. Toronto hurler J.A. Happ was rocked in his last start. He allowed six runs on nine hits in 7.2 IP against Kansas City. Toronto is scoring a half-run less per game on the road.
Record: 93-61-5 (60.4%)
Bankroll: +107.40%
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's Play
Play: Boston +1.5 -155 (Workman vs. Kluber)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Red Sox to avoid a sweep or at least keep it close. Boston would be 40-18 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cleveland would be 20-39 if it was giving 1.5 rpg. Red Sox pitcher Brandon Workman has a 3.24 ERA and the Indians have never seen him. Corey Kluber is having a good year, but against Boston he has a 6.55 ERA in three career appearances (two starts). Red Sox relievers have a 2.71 ERA overall and a 0.79 ERA in the last five games. Cleveland's 'pen has a 5.40 ERA in its last five games. In its last 10 games, Boston is scoring 5.62 rpg against RH.
Record: 93-60-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +113.81%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Red Sox to avoid a sweep or at least keep it close. Boston would be 40-18 if it was given 1.5 runs per game. Cleveland would be 20-39 if it was giving 1.5 rpg. Red Sox pitcher Brandon Workman has a 3.24 ERA and the Indians have never seen him. Corey Kluber is having a good year, but against Boston he has a 6.55 ERA in three career appearances (two starts). Red Sox relievers have a 2.71 ERA overall and a 0.79 ERA in the last five games. Cleveland's 'pen has a 5.40 ERA in its last five games. In its last 10 games, Boston is scoring 5.62 rpg against RH.
Record: 93-60-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +113.81%
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Ari/Col
Play: Arizona +1.5 -130 (Anderson vs. De La Rosa)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 20-36 if they gave 1.5 runs per game and the Diamondbacks would be 31-28 if they were to receive 1.5 rpg. Colorado has lost eight of its last 10. Arizona is 18-18 after its disastrous 5-18 start to the season. Diamondbacks hurler Chase Anderson is 3-0 since his debut on May 11. Prior to that he had a 0.69 ERA in six starts at Double-A Mobile. Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki has just nine hits in his last 45 at-bats, which has knocked 50 points off of his average. Arizona is scoring almost one run more per game vs. LH.
Record: 91-58-5 (61.1%)
Bankroll: +117.64%
MLB: Tuesday's early plays
Play: Boston +108 (Peavy vs. action)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Cleveland has won just four of the last 15 meetings with the Red Sox. Boston took six of seven meetings in 2013. Jake Peavy is 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 career starts against the Indians and he is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last five starts against them. Left-handers are hitting .368 against T.J. House. Boston's bullpen is about a half-run better than Cleveland's, and Red Sox relievers have a 0.73 ERA in the last five games.
Play: Seattle +1.5 -155 (Ramirez vs. Floyd)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mariners would be 37-20 if they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Braves would be 18-38 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Gavin Floyd hasn't won a game since 2012 and he is 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA lifetime against Seattle. The Braves have never seen Erasmo Ramirez. The Mariners have won three straight and Kyle Seager (10-for-21) and Michael Saunders (19-for-52) have been hot of late. And of Robinson Cano's six career hits against Floyd, three of them were homers. Atlanta is hitting 51 points lower and is scoring nearly two fewer runs per game vs. RH.
Play: Tampa Bay -117 (Archer vs. action)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Archer has a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts. Miami has never seen him and he has a 3.68 ERA in three career appearances in interleague play. Henderson Alvarez left his last start early because of elbow stiffness. He hasn't won any of his last four outings and is 0-5 with a 6.28 ERA lifetime against the Rays. Ben Zobrist is 10-for-22 in six games at Marlins Park. In the last five games Tampa Bay relievers have a 2.51 ERA and Miami relievers have a 5.40 ERA.
Record: 91-58-5 (61.1%)
Bankroll: +117.64%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Cleveland has won just four of the last 15 meetings with the Red Sox. Boston took six of seven meetings in 2013. Jake Peavy is 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 career starts against the Indians and he is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last five starts against them. Left-handers are hitting .368 against T.J. House. Boston's bullpen is about a half-run better than Cleveland's, and Red Sox relievers have a 0.73 ERA in the last five games.
Play: Seattle +1.5 -155 (Ramirez vs. Floyd)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mariners would be 37-20 if they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Braves would be 18-38 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Gavin Floyd hasn't won a game since 2012 and he is 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA lifetime against Seattle. The Braves have never seen Erasmo Ramirez. The Mariners have won three straight and Kyle Seager (10-for-21) and Michael Saunders (19-for-52) have been hot of late. And of Robinson Cano's six career hits against Floyd, three of them were homers. Atlanta is hitting 51 points lower and is scoring nearly two fewer runs per game vs. RH.
Play: Tampa Bay -117 (Archer vs. action)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Archer has a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts. Miami has never seen him and he has a 3.68 ERA in three career appearances in interleague play. Henderson Alvarez left his last start early because of elbow stiffness. He hasn't won any of his last four outings and is 0-5 with a 6.28 ERA lifetime against the Rays. Ben Zobrist is 10-for-22 in six games at Marlins Park. In the last five games Tampa Bay relievers have a 2.51 ERA and Miami relievers have a 5.40 ERA.
Record: 91-58-5 (61.1%)
Bankroll: +117.64%
Monday, June 2, 2014
MLB: Monday's Min/Mil
Play: Minnesota/Milwaukee under 8.5 -101 (Gibson vs. Garza)
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Over their last three starts, Matt Garza and Kyle Gibson and have WHIPs of 1.00 and 1.06, respectively. Garza has a 2.57 ERA in two starts against Minnesota. Current Twins are a combined 3-for-30 against him with 11 Ks. The Brewers have never seen Gibson. Milwaukee is scoring a half-run less per game against RH. Minnesota has averaged just 2.81 rpg over its last 10 contests. Relievers for both teams have performed better in the home/away splits (3.18 ERA and 2.83 ERA, respectively) than they have overall.
Record: 90-58-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +111.36%
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Over their last three starts, Matt Garza and Kyle Gibson and have WHIPs of 1.00 and 1.06, respectively. Garza has a 2.57 ERA in two starts against Minnesota. Current Twins are a combined 3-for-30 against him with 11 Ks. The Brewers have never seen Gibson. Milwaukee is scoring a half-run less per game against RH. Minnesota has averaged just 2.81 rpg over its last 10 contests. Relievers for both teams have performed better in the home/away splits (3.18 ERA and 2.83 ERA, respectively) than they have overall.
Record: 90-58-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +111.36%
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