Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 374-285-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +300.94%
Sunday, May 31, 2015
MLB: Sunday's play
Play: Toronto -116 (Hutchison vs. Nolasco)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays lost 3-2 on Saturday, but they left nine guys on base and went 0-for-8 with RISP. I think they will have an easier time against Ricky Nolasco, who has a 5.12 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 2015. Nolasco has a 1.34 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last three turns against Toronto he has allowed eight runs in 17.1 IP. Drew Hutchison is coming off of a shutout of the White Sox. In that one he allowed Chicago four hits, walked zero and struck out eight. Hutchison has a 2.49 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in his last three starts. Minnesota is hitting 33 points lower and is scoring 2.03 less rpg vs. RH. The Jays are averaging 5.30 rpg. And bullpen-wise Toronto has better numbers.
Record: 374-284-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +313.34%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays lost 3-2 on Saturday, but they left nine guys on base and went 0-for-8 with RISP. I think they will have an easier time against Ricky Nolasco, who has a 5.12 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 2015. Nolasco has a 1.34 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last three turns against Toronto he has allowed eight runs in 17.1 IP. Drew Hutchison is coming off of a shutout of the White Sox. In that one he allowed Chicago four hits, walked zero and struck out eight. Hutchison has a 2.49 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in his last three starts. Minnesota is hitting 33 points lower and is scoring 2.03 less rpg vs. RH. The Jays are averaging 5.30 rpg. And bullpen-wise Toronto has better numbers.
Record: 374-284-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +313.34%
Saturday, May 30, 2015
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Boston -130 (Miley vs. Gonzalez)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Reasoning: Wade Miley is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.25 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He went eight innings on Sunday and allowed just one run on four hits to the Angels. Prior to that he allowed Texas two runs over seven innings. Miley has a 1.84 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers and has tabulated 15 Ks in 14.2 IP. In this one he will oppose Chi Chi Gonzalez, who will make his major-league debut. Gonzalez went 3-5 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A Round Rock. Hanley Ramirez has homered in two straight games and David Ortiz, who sat out the last two games for rest, should be back in the lineup. The Red Sox are hitting 39 points higher and are scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. Boston has a much better bullpen (3.68 ERA vs. 4.40 ERA). And Texas is hitting .192 in its last five game vs. LH.
Record: 374-283-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +326.12%
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Reasoning: Wade Miley is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.25 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He went eight innings on Sunday and allowed just one run on four hits to the Angels. Prior to that he allowed Texas two runs over seven innings. Miley has a 1.84 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers and has tabulated 15 Ks in 14.2 IP. In this one he will oppose Chi Chi Gonzalez, who will make his major-league debut. Gonzalez went 3-5 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A Round Rock. Hanley Ramirez has homered in two straight games and David Ortiz, who sat out the last two games for rest, should be back in the lineup. The Red Sox are hitting 39 points higher and are scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. Boston has a much better bullpen (3.68 ERA vs. 4.40 ERA). And Texas is hitting .192 in its last five game vs. LH.
Record: 374-283-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +326.12%
Friday, May 29, 2015
MLB: Friday's 7:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Cincinnati +1.5 -145 (Strasburg vs. DeSclafani)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET play
Reasoning: The Reds would be 27-19 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Washington would be 18-29 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Anthony DeSclafani allowed one run on three hits over seven innings in his last start. On the season he has a 3.46 ERA. The Nationals haven't seen much of him, save for the three scoreless innings of relief he threw against them last season. Stephen Strasburg has a 6.50 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in 2015. In his last three starts he has an 11.25 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. And in his latest appearance, against Philadelphia, Strasburg allowed six runs on seven hits in 3.2 IP. He also has a 5.50 ERA in three lifetime turns against Cincinnati. Over its last seven games Washington has averaged 2.43 runs. Reds relievers have a 1.76 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 373-283-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +317.49%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET play
Reasoning: The Reds would be 27-19 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Washington would be 18-29 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Anthony DeSclafani allowed one run on three hits over seven innings in his last start. On the season he has a 3.46 ERA. The Nationals haven't seen much of him, save for the three scoreless innings of relief he threw against them last season. Stephen Strasburg has a 6.50 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in 2015. In his last three starts he has an 11.25 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. And in his latest appearance, against Philadelphia, Strasburg allowed six runs on seven hits in 3.2 IP. He also has a 5.50 ERA in three lifetime turns against Cincinnati. Over its last seven games Washington has averaged 2.43 runs. Reds relievers have a 1.76 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 373-283-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +317.49%
Thursday, May 28, 2015
MLB: Thursday's 10 p.m. ET plays
Play: Detroit/L.A. Angels over 7.5 -117 (Farmer vs. Wilson)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Buck Farmer will start for the Tigers after being recalled from Triple-A Toledo because of Justin Verlander's injury and Alfredo Simon's leave for family reasons. In 2014 Farmer was 0-1 with a 11.57 ERA in four appearances (two starts). With him on the mound I like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to break out of their slumps. Los Angeles has averaged 4.54 runs in its last 10 contests against RH. Over that same period Angels relievers have a 6.65 ERA. L.A. will send C.J. Wilson to the bump and he has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three starts. Detroit is scoring 1.32 more rpg vs. LH. Ian Kinsler has slumped, but he's 8-for-21 lifetime against Wilson. I also like Miguel Cabrera to get back after going hitless on Wednesday. Cabrera entered that game on a 13-game hitting streak. Wilson is 2-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances (six starts) against the Tigers.
Play: Cleveland/Seattle over 6.5 -105 (Kluber vs. Paxton)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Corey Kluber is 0-3 with a 4.00 ERA in five road starts. James Paxton has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP on the season. The Indians banged out 12 runs on 17 hits on Wednesday and are averaging 5.17 rpg over their last 10. Jason Kipnis is leading the attack (.447 BA in May). Neither club has a good bullpen. Cleveland relievers have a 3.80 ERA in their last 10 and Mariners relievers have a 5.65 ERA in their last five. Games at Safeco Field have averaged 7.24 runs.
Record: 371-283-13 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +296.03%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Buck Farmer will start for the Tigers after being recalled from Triple-A Toledo because of Justin Verlander's injury and Alfredo Simon's leave for family reasons. In 2014 Farmer was 0-1 with a 11.57 ERA in four appearances (two starts). With him on the mound I like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to break out of their slumps. Los Angeles has averaged 4.54 runs in its last 10 contests against RH. Over that same period Angels relievers have a 6.65 ERA. L.A. will send C.J. Wilson to the bump and he has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his last three starts. Detroit is scoring 1.32 more rpg vs. LH. Ian Kinsler has slumped, but he's 8-for-21 lifetime against Wilson. I also like Miguel Cabrera to get back after going hitless on Wednesday. Cabrera entered that game on a 13-game hitting streak. Wilson is 2-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances (six starts) against the Tigers.
Play: Cleveland/Seattle over 6.5 -105 (Kluber vs. Paxton)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Corey Kluber is 0-3 with a 4.00 ERA in five road starts. James Paxton has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP on the season. The Indians banged out 12 runs on 17 hits on Wednesday and are averaging 5.17 rpg over their last 10. Jason Kipnis is leading the attack (.447 BA in May). Neither club has a good bullpen. Cleveland relievers have a 3.80 ERA in their last 10 and Mariners relievers have a 5.65 ERA in their last five. Games at Safeco Field have averaged 7.24 runs.
Record: 371-283-13 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +296.03%
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
MLB: Wednesday's 10 p.m. ET plays
Play: San Diego +1.5 -145 (Cashner vs. Richards)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Andrew Cashner has been a hard-luck loser. Despite his 2.89 ERA, the Padres are just 1-8 in his starts. Cashner has a 2.37 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last three games. In his last appearance Cashner gave up one unearned run and five hits in six innings against the Dodgers. He has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and the Angels haven't scored against him in three relief innings. Los Angeles, which was shut out over 10 innings on Tuesday, has lost three of its last four and has scored just eight runs in those games. Mike Trout has just one homer in his last 10 contests and Albert Pujols has only five RBIs in his last 18. David Freese is in an 0-for-15 slump. Garrett Richards allowed Boston five runs on nine hits in his last start. San Diego would be 30-17 if it was given 1.5 rpg. The Angels would be 15-31 if they gave 1.5 rpg.
Play: Atlanta +1.5 -115 (Wood vs. Greinke)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 30-15 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles would be 22-23 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Home runs have accounted for 45.4% of the Dodgers' runs this season. But here L.A. faces Alex Wood, who has allowed just two long balls in 47 innings. Wood has faced the Dodgers three times in his career (one start) and has allowed only one run in 9.2 IP while striking out 11. Jimmy Rollins is 0-for-14 against Wood, who allowed Miami one earned run in seven innings in his last turn. L.A. is hitting .243 and is scoring 1.6 less rpg vs. LH. In their last 10 games vs. southpaws the Dodgers are hitting .111 and are scoring 0.42 rpg. During that same period L.A.'s bullpen has a 3.74 ERA. Atlanta's relievers have a 3.03 ERA in their last 10. Zack Greinke has been on fire, but A.J. Pierzynski is hitting .404 with three homers and eight RBIs against him (52 ABs). The Braves are hitting 33 points higher and are scoring 2.04 more rpg vs. RH.
Record: 368-283-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +271.76%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Andrew Cashner has been a hard-luck loser. Despite his 2.89 ERA, the Padres are just 1-8 in his starts. Cashner has a 2.37 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last three games. In his last appearance Cashner gave up one unearned run and five hits in six innings against the Dodgers. He has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and the Angels haven't scored against him in three relief innings. Los Angeles, which was shut out over 10 innings on Tuesday, has lost three of its last four and has scored just eight runs in those games. Mike Trout has just one homer in his last 10 contests and Albert Pujols has only five RBIs in his last 18. David Freese is in an 0-for-15 slump. Garrett Richards allowed Boston five runs on nine hits in his last start. San Diego would be 30-17 if it was given 1.5 rpg. The Angels would be 15-31 if they gave 1.5 rpg.
Play: Atlanta +1.5 -115 (Wood vs. Greinke)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 30-15 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles would be 22-23 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Home runs have accounted for 45.4% of the Dodgers' runs this season. But here L.A. faces Alex Wood, who has allowed just two long balls in 47 innings. Wood has faced the Dodgers three times in his career (one start) and has allowed only one run in 9.2 IP while striking out 11. Jimmy Rollins is 0-for-14 against Wood, who allowed Miami one earned run in seven innings in his last turn. L.A. is hitting .243 and is scoring 1.6 less rpg vs. LH. In their last 10 games vs. southpaws the Dodgers are hitting .111 and are scoring 0.42 rpg. During that same period L.A.'s bullpen has a 3.74 ERA. Atlanta's relievers have a 3.03 ERA in their last 10. Zack Greinke has been on fire, but A.J. Pierzynski is hitting .404 with three homers and eight RBIs against him (52 ABs). The Braves are hitting 33 points higher and are scoring 2.04 more rpg vs. RH.
Record: 368-283-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +271.76%
MLB: Wednesday's 12:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Cleveland -162 (Lewis vs. Carrasco)
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Colby Lewis has a 6.75 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Indians. He has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts. Cleveland has averaged 5.70 rpg over its last five vs. RH and is scoring a quarter-run less per game against them in 2015. Carlos Carrasco has worked six or more innings in five straight starts and he limited Cincinnati to two runs on four hits with seven Ks in his last go-around. Texas is hitting 33 points lower and is scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. The Rangers have a horrible bullpen (4.29 ERA). Indians relievers have a 2.40 ERA in their last five.
Record: 368-283-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +271.76%
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Colby Lewis has a 6.75 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Indians. He has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts. Cleveland has averaged 5.70 rpg over its last five vs. RH and is scoring a quarter-run less per game against them in 2015. Carlos Carrasco has worked six or more innings in five straight starts and he limited Cincinnati to two runs on four hits with seven Ks in his last go-around. Texas is hitting 33 points lower and is scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. The Rangers have a horrible bullpen (4.29 ERA). Indians relievers have a 2.40 ERA in their last five.
Record: 368-283-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +271.76%
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's 10:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta +1.5 -105 (Teheran vs. Kershaw)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: The Braves would be 30-14 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles would be 21-23 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Clayton Kershaw has a 5.49 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three starts. On the season he has posted a 4.32 ERA. In his last go-around Kershaw allowed four runs on seven hits including a homer to Madison Bumgarner. Julio Teheran allowed just one run on two hits with a walk and eight strikeouts over seven innings in his last start. He has a 3.04 ERA in May. The Dodgers are averaging 2.22 rpg over their last 10. And over the last 10 contests Atlanta's bullpen has been much better than its L.A. counterpart (3.09 ERA vs. 4.09 ERA).
Record: 368-280-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +308.54%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: The Braves would be 30-14 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles would be 21-23 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Clayton Kershaw has a 5.49 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three starts. On the season he has posted a 4.32 ERA. In his last go-around Kershaw allowed four runs on seven hits including a homer to Madison Bumgarner. Julio Teheran allowed just one run on two hits with a walk and eight strikeouts over seven innings in his last start. He has a 3.04 ERA in May. The Dodgers are averaging 2.22 rpg over their last 10. And over the last 10 contests Atlanta's bullpen has been much better than its L.A. counterpart (3.09 ERA vs. 4.09 ERA).
Record: 368-280-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +308.54%
MLB: Tuesday's 8:10 p.m. ET plays
Play: Milwaukee +1.5 -125 (Bumgarner vs. Garza)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Brewers would be 22-24 if they were given 1.5 rpg. San Francisco would be 16-30 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Milwaukee is averaging 7.71 rpg vs. LH over its last five. The Giants are hitting 137 points lower and are scoring 3.67 fewer rpg vs. RH in their last five. Over that same period San Francisco's bullpen has a 7.02 ERA. Madison Bumgarner has a 1.31 WHIP in his last three starts. Current Giants hitters are batting .203 lifetime (64 ABs) vs. Matt Garza. Khris Davis homered twice on Monday and Ryan Braun has four homers and 13 RBIs in his last seven games. Braun is hitting .300 with two homers in his career vs. Bumgarner.
Play: Boston -132 (Buchholz vs. Pelfrey)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Clay Buchholz has made three straight quality starts and has a 2.49 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over that period. Mike Pelfrey has a 3.57 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three turns. The Red Sox are hitting 44 points higher and are scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. The Twins are hitting 39 points lower and are scoring 2.13 less rpg vs. RH. Boston also has a much better bullpen (3.51 ERA vs. 3.97 ERA).
Record: 368-280-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +308.54%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Brewers would be 22-24 if they were given 1.5 rpg. San Francisco would be 16-30 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Milwaukee is averaging 7.71 rpg vs. LH over its last five. The Giants are hitting 137 points lower and are scoring 3.67 fewer rpg vs. RH in their last five. Over that same period San Francisco's bullpen has a 7.02 ERA. Madison Bumgarner has a 1.31 WHIP in his last three starts. Current Giants hitters are batting .203 lifetime (64 ABs) vs. Matt Garza. Khris Davis homered twice on Monday and Ryan Braun has four homers and 13 RBIs in his last seven games. Braun is hitting .300 with two homers in his career vs. Bumgarner.
Play: Boston -132 (Buchholz vs. Pelfrey)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Clay Buchholz has made three straight quality starts and has a 2.49 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over that period. Mike Pelfrey has a 3.57 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three turns. The Red Sox are hitting 44 points higher and are scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. The Twins are hitting 39 points lower and are scoring 2.13 less rpg vs. RH. Boston also has a much better bullpen (3.51 ERA vs. 3.97 ERA).
Record: 368-280-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +308.54%
Saturday, May 23, 2015
No plays for Sunday or Monday
I'm taking a couple of vacation days. Subscribers have been credited two days.
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: N.Y. Yankees -154 (Martinez vs. Sabathia)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: CC Sabathia has won two straight and in his last turn he limited Kansas City to one run and six hits over seven innings. Texas hasn't seen him since 2012, but the Yankees have won Sabathia's last seven starts against the Rangers. Nick Martinez, who hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning since his first two starts of the season, was rocked by the Bombers in his last try against them (07/29/14). In that one he allowed six runs in 5.2 IP. In his last start he walked five in five innings. Rangers relievers had a 4.56 ERA entering Friday's meeting and in that one they allowed four runs in 2.1 IP. Yankees relievers had a 2.82 ERA entering Friday.
Record: 368-279-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +321.18%
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: CC Sabathia has won two straight and in his last turn he limited Kansas City to one run and six hits over seven innings. Texas hasn't seen him since 2012, but the Yankees have won Sabathia's last seven starts against the Rangers. Nick Martinez, who hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning since his first two starts of the season, was rocked by the Bombers in his last try against them (07/29/14). In that one he allowed six runs in 5.2 IP. In his last start he walked five in five innings. Rangers relievers had a 4.56 ERA entering Friday's meeting and in that one they allowed four runs in 2.1 IP. Yankees relievers had a 2.82 ERA entering Friday.
Record: 368-279-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +321.18%
Friday, May 22, 2015
MLB: Friday's plays
Play: Detroit -103 (McHugh vs. Simon)
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12 at home vs. Houston. Alfredo Simon has a 3.04 ERA overall and a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts. He is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Astros. Detroit relievers have a 1.85 ERA in their last 10. Collin McHugh has a 5.21 ERA in his last three turns.
Play: Cleveland -154 (Leake vs. Carrasco)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds have lost five straight and they allowed 40 runs in those games. They also were outscored 10-1 in their last two and have dropped 10 of their last 11 at Cleveland. The Indians have won three consecutive contests and allowed the White Sox just eight runs in four games in their last series. Cleveland is 10-9 this month and has won its last two series. Cincinnati will send Mike Leake to the hill for this one and he gave up a career-high nine runs his last time out. He also allowed three homers and has given up nine long balls over his last seven starts. The Reds are hitting .229 and are scoring 1.51 less rpg vs. RH. Indians relievers have a 3.53 ERA and Cincinnati's bullpen has a 5.17 ERA.
Record: 366-279-13 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +301.66%
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12 at home vs. Houston. Alfredo Simon has a 3.04 ERA overall and a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts. He is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Astros. Detroit relievers have a 1.85 ERA in their last 10. Collin McHugh has a 5.21 ERA in his last three turns.
Play: Cleveland -154 (Leake vs. Carrasco)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds have lost five straight and they allowed 40 runs in those games. They also were outscored 10-1 in their last two and have dropped 10 of their last 11 at Cleveland. The Indians have won three consecutive contests and allowed the White Sox just eight runs in four games in their last series. Cleveland is 10-9 this month and has won its last two series. Cincinnati will send Mike Leake to the hill for this one and he gave up a career-high nine runs his last time out. He also allowed three homers and has given up nine long balls over his last seven starts. The Reds are hitting .229 and are scoring 1.51 less rpg vs. RH. Indians relievers have a 3.53 ERA and Cincinnati's bullpen has a 5.17 ERA.
Record: 366-279-13 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +301.66%
Thursday, May 21, 2015
MLB: Thursday's 3:45 p.m. ET play
Play: L.A. Dodgers -123 (Bumgarner vs. Kershaw)
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Clayton Kershaw is 14-6 with a 1.51 ERA in 28 career games against San Francisco. He is 8-2 with a 0.97 ERA at AT&T Park. The Giants are scoring just 3.21 rpg vs. LH. And the Dodgers have the better bullpen.
Record: 366-277-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +327.30%
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Clayton Kershaw is 14-6 with a 1.51 ERA in 28 career games against San Francisco. He is 8-2 with a 0.97 ERA at AT&T Park. The Giants are scoring just 3.21 rpg vs. LH. And the Dodgers have the better bullpen.
Record: 366-277-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +327.30%
MLB: Thursday's 12:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Miami -132 (Bradley vs. Latos)
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Against Philadelphia in his last start rookie Archie Bradley gave up four runs in two-plus innings. That was in his first game since getting hit in the head by a line drive on April 28. He is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two road starts. Mat Latos has 3.86 ERA in his last three starts and is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in eight career turns against Arizona. Relievers for the Diamondbacks have combined for a 4.36 ERA. Marlins relievers have a 2.14 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 366-277-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +327.30%
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Against Philadelphia in his last start rookie Archie Bradley gave up four runs in two-plus innings. That was in his first game since getting hit in the head by a line drive on April 28. He is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two road starts. Mat Latos has 3.86 ERA in his last three starts and is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in eight career turns against Arizona. Relievers for the Diamondbacks have combined for a 4.36 ERA. Marlins relievers have a 2.14 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 366-277-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +327.30%
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
NBA: Wednesday's play
Play: Cleveland +1 -107
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Reasoning: Kyrie Irving (knee, foot) says he is ready for this one after playing only 12 minutes at Chicago in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Still, the Cavaliers beat the Bulls 94-73, and that was after getting only 15 points from LeBron James. In the postseason James is averaging 26.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists. Tristan Thompson has posted three double-doubles in his last four tilts. Atlanta is 68-26 including the playoffs, but it has played the NBA's easiest schedule. The Hawks didn't get much production from Jeff Teague in their first three games of their series against Washington and they dropped two of those contests. And backup Dennis Schroder is coming off of back-to-back 3-for-12 shooting performances. Cleveland plays better perimeter defense, makes more free throws and has a huge rebounding edge.
Record: 365-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +341.41%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Reasoning: Kyrie Irving (knee, foot) says he is ready for this one after playing only 12 minutes at Chicago in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Still, the Cavaliers beat the Bulls 94-73, and that was after getting only 15 points from LeBron James. In the postseason James is averaging 26.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists. Tristan Thompson has posted three double-doubles in his last four tilts. Atlanta is 68-26 including the playoffs, but it has played the NBA's easiest schedule. The Hawks didn't get much production from Jeff Teague in their first three games of their series against Washington and they dropped two of those contests. And backup Dennis Schroder is coming off of back-to-back 3-for-12 shooting performances. Cleveland plays better perimeter defense, makes more free throws and has a huge rebounding edge.
Record: 365-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +341.41%
MLB: Wednesday's 7:08 p.m. ET play
Play: Milwaukee/Detroit over 8.5 -105 (Lohse vs. Greene)
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Brewers have allowed the most runs (201) in the majors. On Tuesday they got nine hits from the first four hitters in their lineup and scored eight runs. Ryan Braun homered and drove in four in that victory and he has nine RBIs in the last five games. Aramis Ramirez has homered in each of his last two contests and Carlos Gomez is 5-for-10 with four RBIs in the series. Against RH Milwaukee has averaged 5.03 rpg over its last 10. Kyle Lohse (5.85 ERA) will start for the Brewers and Miguel Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes have hit him hard. They are a combined 6-for-16 with four homers lifetime against Lohse. J.D. Martinez has hit safely in 10 straight. Shane Greene (4.21 ERA) will toe the slab for Detroit.
Record: 365-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +341.41%
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Brewers have allowed the most runs (201) in the majors. On Tuesday they got nine hits from the first four hitters in their lineup and scored eight runs. Ryan Braun homered and drove in four in that victory and he has nine RBIs in the last five games. Aramis Ramirez has homered in each of his last two contests and Carlos Gomez is 5-for-10 with four RBIs in the series. Against RH Milwaukee has averaged 5.03 rpg over its last 10. Kyle Lohse (5.85 ERA) will start for the Brewers and Miguel Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes have hit him hard. They are a combined 6-for-16 with four homers lifetime against Lohse. J.D. Martinez has hit safely in 10 straight. Shane Greene (4.21 ERA) will toe the slab for Detroit.
Record: 365-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +341.41%
MLB: Wednesday's 2:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Oakland +1.5 -150 (Hahn vs. Keuchel)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: The Athletics would be 27-14 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Houston would be 16-24 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Jesse Hahn allowed just two earned runs on five hits in 6.1 IP in his last start. Dallas Keuchel has allowed four runs on eight hits in each of his last two turns. He is 1-2 in 10 career appearances (eight starts) vs. Oakland. The A's are averaging 5.06 rpg in their last five vs. LH. The Astros are hitting .193 in their last 10 vs. RH. Oakland 1B Max Muncy is 4-for-10 with two homers and two doubles over his last three contests.
Record: 365-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +341.41%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: The Athletics would be 27-14 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Houston would be 16-24 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Jesse Hahn allowed just two earned runs on five hits in 6.1 IP in his last start. Dallas Keuchel has allowed four runs on eight hits in each of his last two turns. He is 1-2 in 10 career appearances (eight starts) vs. Oakland. The A's are averaging 5.06 rpg in their last five vs. LH. The Astros are hitting .193 in their last 10 vs. RH. Oakland 1B Max Muncy is 4-for-10 with two homers and two doubles over his last three contests.
Record: 365-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +341.41%
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
NBA: Tuesday's play
Play: Houston +10 -105
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: My power ratings say the Warriors should just be favored by 7.5 points. This is the most points the Rockets have been spotted this season. They are hot after becoming the ninth team in NBA history to rally from a 3-1 deficit in a playoff series. They showed their mettle when overcoming a 19-point deficit with 14 minutes left in Game 6 vs. the Clippers. Houston has played the league's third-toughest schedule. Golden State, which will be without Marreese Speights (calf) for this one, has played the NBA's 14th-toughest schedule. James Harden has totaled 20 or more points in each of the Rockets' 12 postseason games. Josh Smith averaged 17 points in Game 6 and 7 vs. Los Angeles. And Dwight Howard has posted nine double-doubles in the playoffs. Houston records more three-pointers, free throws, offensive rebounds and steals.
Record: 364-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +329.15%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: My power ratings say the Warriors should just be favored by 7.5 points. This is the most points the Rockets have been spotted this season. They are hot after becoming the ninth team in NBA history to rally from a 3-1 deficit in a playoff series. They showed their mettle when overcoming a 19-point deficit with 14 minutes left in Game 6 vs. the Clippers. Houston has played the league's third-toughest schedule. Golden State, which will be without Marreese Speights (calf) for this one, has played the NBA's 14th-toughest schedule. James Harden has totaled 20 or more points in each of the Rockets' 12 postseason games. Josh Smith averaged 17 points in Game 6 and 7 vs. Los Angeles. And Dwight Howard has posted nine double-doubles in the playoffs. Houston records more three-pointers, free throws, offensive rebounds and steals.
Record: 364-275-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +329.15%
Monday, May 18, 2015
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Oakland +114 (Pomeranz vs. McCullers)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Lance McCullers will make his major-league debut for Houston and he has dominated this season. But that was at Double-A Corpus Christi. He didn't have a chance to pitch at AAA-Fresno. The Athletics are averaging five a game vs. RH. Drew Pomeranz will go for Oakland and he allowed Boston just one run on three hits over seven innings in his last start. The Astros are hitting .220 and are scoring a half-run less per game vs. LH. They are hitting under .200 against them in their last 10 games.
Record: 363-275-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +314.96%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Lance McCullers will make his major-league debut for Houston and he has dominated this season. But that was at Double-A Corpus Christi. He didn't have a chance to pitch at AAA-Fresno. The Athletics are averaging five a game vs. RH. Drew Pomeranz will go for Oakland and he allowed Boston just one run on three hits over seven innings in his last start. The Astros are hitting .220 and are scoring a half-run less per game vs. LH. They are hitting under .200 against them in their last 10 games.
Record: 363-275-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +314.96%
Sunday, May 17, 2015
MLB: Sunday's 4:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Oakland -131 (Samardzija vs. Kazmir)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jeff Samardzija gave up seven runs over six innings to Milwaukee in his last start. He is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA on the road and overall he has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Scott Kazmir allowed just two runs in six innings to Boston in his last turn and has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP on the season. Chicago is hitting .211 and is scoring 2.83 rpg vs. LH. The Athletics are hitting 59 points higher and are scoring 2.01 more rpg vs. RH. White Sox relievers have a 5.34 ERA in their last 10.
Record: 360-274-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +294.30%
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jeff Samardzija gave up seven runs over six innings to Milwaukee in his last start. He is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA on the road and overall he has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Scott Kazmir allowed just two runs in six innings to Boston in his last turn and has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP on the season. Chicago is hitting .211 and is scoring 2.83 rpg vs. LH. The Athletics are hitting 59 points higher and are scoring 2.01 more rpg vs. RH. White Sox relievers have a 5.34 ERA in their last 10.
Record: 360-274-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +294.30%
NHL: Sunday's play
Play: Anaheim -127
Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Reasoning: Chicago may have had a little too much time off, as it hasn't played in nine days. The Blackhawks are 8-21-2 in their last 31 trips to Anaheim. The Ducks are 31-12-1-2 at home. Corey Perry (knee) is expected to be ready for this meeting. He leads the NHL with 15 points in the playoffs. Anaheim has an 85.8% penalty kill at home and an 88.2% pk in its last 10 games. The Ducks' power play has connected on 28.1% of its chances in the last 10 contests and Chicago's penalty kill percentage is just 72.7 in its last 10 outings.
Record: 360-274-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +294.30%
Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Reasoning: Chicago may have had a little too much time off, as it hasn't played in nine days. The Blackhawks are 8-21-2 in their last 31 trips to Anaheim. The Ducks are 31-12-1-2 at home. Corey Perry (knee) is expected to be ready for this meeting. He leads the NHL with 15 points in the playoffs. Anaheim has an 85.8% penalty kill at home and an 88.2% pk in its last 10 games. The Ducks' power play has connected on 28.1% of its chances in the last 10 contests and Chicago's penalty kill percentage is just 72.7 in its last 10 outings.
Record: 360-274-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +294.30%
MLB: Sunday's 2 p.m. ET plays
Play: Kansas City -125 (Capuano vs. Volquez)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Chris Capuano will make his season debut for New York. He started 12 games for the Yankees last season and posted a 4.25 ERA. But he hasn't spent a full season in a rotation since 2012. The Royals are hitting .300 vs. LH on the season and .357 against them in the last 10 games. Edinson Volquez has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. New York is hitting .226 and is scoring 1.73 rpg vs. RH in its last five. Kansas City is 12-6 at home and its bullpen has a 1.63 ERA.
Play: Pittsburgh +116 (Burnett vs. Arrieta)
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: A.J. Burnett has a 1.60 ERA on the season after allowing two or fewer runs in each of his seven starts. He allowed Chicago one run over six innings on April 20 and he is 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA in his career against the Cubs. He is 5-1 with a 3.17 ERA at Wrigley Field. Jake Arrieta has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his last three starts. The Pirates are scoring 1.34 more rpg vs. RH. Chicago is scoring 1.37 less rpg vs. RH. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 3.20 ERA and Cubs relievers have combined for a 4.23 ERA. And Josh Harrison is hot (11-for-21, last five games).
Record: 360-274-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +294.30%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Chris Capuano will make his season debut for New York. He started 12 games for the Yankees last season and posted a 4.25 ERA. But he hasn't spent a full season in a rotation since 2012. The Royals are hitting .300 vs. LH on the season and .357 against them in the last 10 games. Edinson Volquez has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. New York is hitting .226 and is scoring 1.73 rpg vs. RH in its last five. Kansas City is 12-6 at home and its bullpen has a 1.63 ERA.
Play: Pittsburgh +116 (Burnett vs. Arrieta)
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: A.J. Burnett has a 1.60 ERA on the season after allowing two or fewer runs in each of his seven starts. He allowed Chicago one run over six innings on April 20 and he is 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA in his career against the Cubs. He is 5-1 with a 3.17 ERA at Wrigley Field. Jake Arrieta has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his last three starts. The Pirates are scoring 1.34 more rpg vs. RH. Chicago is scoring 1.37 less rpg vs. RH. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 3.20 ERA and Cubs relievers have combined for a 4.23 ERA. And Josh Harrison is hot (11-for-21, last five games).
Record: 360-274-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +294.30%
Saturday, May 16, 2015
MLB: Saturday's 2:15 p.m. ET play
Play: St. Louis +113 (Price vs. Lyons)
Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This start for David Price was pushed back two days because of a sore hamstring. In his last start Price allowed four earned runs and 13 hits in 6.1 IP. He has struck out three or fewer batters in three of his last four turns. Tyler Lyons will make his third start since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis. In his last go-around he gave up two runs over five innings. He has 91 strikeouts in 99 career innings. Cardinals relievers have a 2.28 ERA. Matt Holliday has reached safely in 33 straight games. And of Miguel Cabrera's nine homers, only one has been hit in a night game.
Record: 359-273-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +292.30%
Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This start for David Price was pushed back two days because of a sore hamstring. In his last start Price allowed four earned runs and 13 hits in 6.1 IP. He has struck out three or fewer batters in three of his last four turns. Tyler Lyons will make his third start since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis. In his last go-around he gave up two runs over five innings. He has 91 strikeouts in 99 career innings. Cardinals relievers have a 2.28 ERA. Matt Holliday has reached safely in 33 straight games. And of Miguel Cabrera's nine homers, only one has been hit in a night game.
Record: 359-273-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +292.30%
MLB: Saturday's 1 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta +117 (Wood vs. Latos)
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Reasoning: Alex Wood opened his season by allowing two runs on four hits over five innings en route to a 12-2 victory at Miami on April 7. Mat Latos took the loss in that one when he allowed seven runs in 0.2 innings. Six days later Latos gave up three runs in four innings vs. the Braves. Atlanta is scoring 1.67 more rpg vs. RH. The Marlins bullpen has a 7.53 ERA in its last five, compared the Braves' 3.18 ERA. Miami hasn't gotten much production from Christian Yelich (.186 BA) or Michael Morse (.214 BA). The Marlins are 8-8 at home and four of those losses came against Atlanta.
Record: 359-273-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +292.30%
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Reasoning: Alex Wood opened his season by allowing two runs on four hits over five innings en route to a 12-2 victory at Miami on April 7. Mat Latos took the loss in that one when he allowed seven runs in 0.2 innings. Six days later Latos gave up three runs in four innings vs. the Braves. Atlanta is scoring 1.67 more rpg vs. RH. The Marlins bullpen has a 7.53 ERA in its last five, compared the Braves' 3.18 ERA. Miami hasn't gotten much production from Christian Yelich (.186 BA) or Michael Morse (.214 BA). The Marlins are 8-8 at home and four of those losses came against Atlanta.
Record: 359-273-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +292.30%
Friday, May 15, 2015
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 359-273-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +292.30%
Record: 359-273-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +292.30%
Thursday, May 14, 2015
NBA: Thursday's play
Play: Houston/L.A. Clippers under 219.5 -103
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: This is the second-highest total Los Angeles has faced this season and the third-highest the Rockets have gone against. Clippers games average 207.6 points and Houston games average 206.5 points. The Rockets are below average shooting the ball and both teams are above average in field-goal percentage defense. Both are far below average from the line and above average in defensive rebounding. They both record steals, block shots and don't get much offensive help from their benches. James Harden is still getting over the flu and Chris Paul's hamstring isn't 100 percent. Houston has lost nine of its last 10 at Los Angeles. And if it's a Clippers blowout, I think that only helps the under. L.A. also only got three fast-break points in Game 5.
Record: 359-272-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +304.43%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: This is the second-highest total Los Angeles has faced this season and the third-highest the Rockets have gone against. Clippers games average 207.6 points and Houston games average 206.5 points. The Rockets are below average shooting the ball and both teams are above average in field-goal percentage defense. Both are far below average from the line and above average in defensive rebounding. They both record steals, block shots and don't get much offensive help from their benches. James Harden is still getting over the flu and Chris Paul's hamstring isn't 100 percent. Houston has lost nine of its last 10 at Los Angeles. And if it's a Clippers blowout, I think that only helps the under. L.A. also only got three fast-break points in Game 5.
Record: 359-272-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +304.43%
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
NBA: Wednesday's play
Play: Memphis/Golden State over 195 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Reasoning: The Warriors found a little bit of their offensive mojo Monday night when they put up 101 points. League MVP Stephen Curry finally got untracked and finished with 33 points. They normally score 109.2 ppg and at home they average 112.0. I expect that Klay Thompson will eventually wake up and put up his usual 21.7 ppg. Through the first four games of this series he's averaged just 16.5 points. Mike Conley and Zach Randolph should rebound as well, as Conley is just 7-for-25 from the field over his last two and Randolph was held to just 12 points on Monday after scoring 20 or more in the first three games. Golden State could really explode in this one with defensive specialist Tony Allen (hamstring) listed as questionable. Memphis' attack could be in for a break with Marreese Speights (calf) out for the rest of the series. Both squads are above average in shooting from the field and from the line. And the Warriors should be able to cut down on their turnovers (4.3 more per game than their average). This is the lowest total Golden State has faced this season.
Record: 359-271-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +316.94%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Reasoning: The Warriors found a little bit of their offensive mojo Monday night when they put up 101 points. League MVP Stephen Curry finally got untracked and finished with 33 points. They normally score 109.2 ppg and at home they average 112.0. I expect that Klay Thompson will eventually wake up and put up his usual 21.7 ppg. Through the first four games of this series he's averaged just 16.5 points. Mike Conley and Zach Randolph should rebound as well, as Conley is just 7-for-25 from the field over his last two and Randolph was held to just 12 points on Monday after scoring 20 or more in the first three games. Golden State could really explode in this one with defensive specialist Tony Allen (hamstring) listed as questionable. Memphis' attack could be in for a break with Marreese Speights (calf) out for the rest of the series. Both squads are above average in shooting from the field and from the line. And the Warriors should be able to cut down on their turnovers (4.3 more per game than their average). This is the lowest total Golden State has faced this season.
Record: 359-271-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +316.94%
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: Oakland -108 (Masterson vs. Pomeranz)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Boston hasn't seen much of Drew Pomeranz and, in two relief appearances lifetime against the Red Sox, the southpaw has a 2.70 ERA. Boston is averaging 2.67 rpg over its last 10. It is hitting .187 against LH this season. The Athletics will go against Justin Masterson, who is 2-7 with a 6.61 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts) vs. Oakland. And the A's are hitting 66 points higher and are scoring 2.05 more rpg vs. RH.
Record: 358-271-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +305.67%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Boston hasn't seen much of Drew Pomeranz and, in two relief appearances lifetime against the Red Sox, the southpaw has a 2.70 ERA. Boston is averaging 2.67 rpg over its last 10. It is hitting .187 against LH this season. The Athletics will go against Justin Masterson, who is 2-7 with a 6.61 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts) vs. Oakland. And the A's are hitting 66 points higher and are scoring 2.05 more rpg vs. RH.
Record: 358-271-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +305.67%
Monday, May 11, 2015
MLB: Monday's 10:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Miami/L.A. Dodgers under 7 -105 (Koehler vs. Greinke)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Zack Greinke is 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. In his last start he allowed zero earned runs on two hits in 7.2 IP. He is 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA in five starts lifetime against the Marlins. Los Angeles' bullpen has a 1.85 ERA. Tom Koehler has a 3.45 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. He has a 3.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his last three turns. Miami is hitting 21 points lower and is scoring nearly one less rpg vs. RH. L.A. is hitting .245 vs. RH over its last 10. The Dodgers are without Yasiel Puig (hamstring), and the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton is mired in a 4-for-25 slump.
Record: 357-270-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +309.48%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Zack Greinke is 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. In his last start he allowed zero earned runs on two hits in 7.2 IP. He is 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA in five starts lifetime against the Marlins. Los Angeles' bullpen has a 1.85 ERA. Tom Koehler has a 3.45 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. He has a 3.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his last three turns. Miami is hitting 21 points lower and is scoring nearly one less rpg vs. RH. L.A. is hitting .245 vs. RH over its last 10. The Dodgers are without Yasiel Puig (hamstring), and the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton is mired in a 4-for-25 slump.
Record: 357-270-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +309.48%
MLB: Monday's 8:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Texas +1.5 -145 (Duffy vs. Lewis)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers are returning home after a 5-2 road trip. Here they will throw Colby Lewis, who has a 2.61 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In Lewis' last go-around he allowed one run over eight innings to Houston. He has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Kansas City is hitting 22 points lower and is scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. It is hitting .223 in its last five vs. RH. In his last start Danny Duffy allowed Cleveland four runs on six hits while retiring only three batters. He has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the season. Duffy has started two games lifetime against Texas and he's allowed the Rangers five runs on nine hits and seven walks in 10 innings. Texas is hitting 34 points higher and is scoring a half-run more per game vs. LH.
Record: 357-270-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +309.48%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers are returning home after a 5-2 road trip. Here they will throw Colby Lewis, who has a 2.61 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In Lewis' last go-around he allowed one run over eight innings to Houston. He has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Kansas City is hitting 22 points lower and is scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. It is hitting .223 in its last five vs. RH. In his last start Danny Duffy allowed Cleveland four runs on six hits while retiring only three batters. He has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the season. Duffy has started two games lifetime against Texas and he's allowed the Rangers five runs on nine hits and seven walks in 10 innings. Texas is hitting 34 points higher and is scoring a half-run more per game vs. LH.
Record: 357-270-13 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +309.48%
Sunday, May 10, 2015
MLB: Sunday's 1:35 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta +1.5 -150 (Wood vs. Zimmermann)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Washington would be 10-21 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Braves would be 20-10 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Alex Wood is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 52 Ks in 41.1 IP in seven starts lifetime starts against the Nationals. Washington is hitting .236 vs. LH. Atlanta is hitting 24 points higher and is scoring 2.08 more rpg vs. RH. Expect the Braves to stock up on left-handed batters in this one as Jordan Zimmermann is allowing LH a .361 BA.
Record: 356-269-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +313.62%
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Washington would be 10-21 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Braves would be 20-10 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Alex Wood is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 52 Ks in 41.1 IP in seven starts lifetime starts against the Nationals. Washington is hitting .236 vs. LH. Atlanta is hitting 24 points higher and is scoring 2.08 more rpg vs. RH. Expect the Braves to stock up on left-handed batters in this one as Jordan Zimmermann is allowing LH a .361 BA.
Record: 356-269-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +313.62%
MLB: Sunday's 1:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Minnesota/Cleveland under 8.5 -105 (May vs. Salazar)
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Trevor May has won two of his three career starts against the Indians and he gave up just one run to them over six innings on April 19. Danny Salazar has a 1.08 WHIP and has struck out 37 in 26 innings. On April 18 he struck out 10 Twins en route to a 4-2 victory. Minnesota is hitting 32 points lower and is scoring 1.26 less rpg vs. RH. Cleveland, which is hitting .214 vs. RH in its last five, is hitting .240 against them this season. Over the last 10 games the Twins bullpen has a 1.12 ERA and Indians relievers have a 1.80 ERA.
Record: 356-269-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +313.62%
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Trevor May has won two of his three career starts against the Indians and he gave up just one run to them over six innings on April 19. Danny Salazar has a 1.08 WHIP and has struck out 37 in 26 innings. On April 18 he struck out 10 Twins en route to a 4-2 victory. Minnesota is hitting 32 points lower and is scoring 1.26 less rpg vs. RH. Cleveland, which is hitting .214 vs. RH in its last five, is hitting .240 against them this season. Over the last 10 games the Twins bullpen has a 1.12 ERA and Indians relievers have a 1.80 ERA.
Record: 356-269-13 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +313.62%
Saturday, May 9, 2015
NBA: Saturday's play
Play: Golden State/Memphis over 196 -107
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Reasoning: Mike Conley is back for the Grizzlies following facial surgery. He scored 22 in 27 minutes in Game 2. Zach Randolph scored 20 points in each of the series' first two games. And Memphis' games average 193.3 points. Warriors games average 209.3 points overall and 208.3 points on the road. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have combined to average 36 points, which is about 10 points below their combined season average. So I'm expecting one or both to break out very soon if not on Saturday. Both teams are above average in shooting, from the line and on the offensive glass. And games called by these four officials (Tony Brown, Monty McCutchen, James Capers and Josh Tiven) have averaged between 197.2 and 205.5 points.
Record: 356-268-13 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +326.41%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Reasoning: Mike Conley is back for the Grizzlies following facial surgery. He scored 22 in 27 minutes in Game 2. Zach Randolph scored 20 points in each of the series' first two games. And Memphis' games average 193.3 points. Warriors games average 209.3 points overall and 208.3 points on the road. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have combined to average 36 points, which is about 10 points below their combined season average. So I'm expecting one or both to break out very soon if not on Saturday. Both teams are above average in shooting, from the line and on the offensive glass. And games called by these four officials (Tony Brown, Monty McCutchen, James Capers and Josh Tiven) have averaged between 197.2 and 205.5 points.
Record: 356-268-13 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +326.41%
Friday, May 8, 2015
NHL: Friday's play
Play: Washington/N.Y. Rangers over 4.5 -120
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Reasoning: Neither team has faced a 4.5-goal total this season. A spate of unders is the reason why it's at this number, but I think those unders are unsustainable. Contests for both teams average more than 5.1 gpg overall and they average more than that in the home/away splits. The Capitals connect on 24.6% of their power plays and they kill only 82.4% of their penalties. New York averaged 3.02 gpg during the regular season on 31.5 shots per game. It is averaging 30.7 spg in the postseason and Washington has averaged 30.4 spg in 11 playoff tilts.
Record: 356-267-13 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +339.60%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Reasoning: Neither team has faced a 4.5-goal total this season. A spate of unders is the reason why it's at this number, but I think those unders are unsustainable. Contests for both teams average more than 5.1 gpg overall and they average more than that in the home/away splits. The Capitals connect on 24.6% of their power plays and they kill only 82.4% of their penalties. New York averaged 3.02 gpg during the regular season on 31.5 shots per game. It is averaging 30.7 spg in the postseason and Washington has averaged 30.4 spg in 11 playoff tilts.
Record: 356-267-13 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +339.60%
Thursday, May 7, 2015
MLB: Thursday's 7:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Pittsburgh -140 (DeSclafini vs. Burnett)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Record: 355-266-13 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +343.40%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning:
A.J. Burnett has done his part and it's only a matter of time for the
Pirates to get him some run support. He is winless because, despite not
allowing more than two runs in any of his five outings, Pittsburgh has
yet to score more than two runs in any of those games. Burnett has
posted four straight quality starts and last Friday he tossed six
innings of shutout ball at St. Louis. He has a 3.69 ERA in 17 career
starts against Cincinnati. The Reds are hitting .223 vs. RH and have
scored just 1.98 rpg over their last five. For this one Cincinnati will
give the ball to Anthony DeSclafini. He has lost his last two starts.
Last Friday he walked five and gave up four runs in five innings vs.
Atlanta. Zack Cozart may play on Thursday,
but how effective will he be having missed the first two games of the
series with finger and wrist injuries? To top it off, the Reds bullpen has a 5.03 ERA.
Record: 355-266-13 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +343.40%
MLB: Thursday's 2:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Cleveland -106 (Kluber vs. Volquez)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians exploded for 10 runs on Wednesday to win their fifth in the last six meetings at Kansas City. They have averaged 5.32 rpg over their last 10. Here they will turn to reigning Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, who is 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA lifetime against the Royals. Cleveland's bullpen has a 1.84 ERA over its last five. Kansas City is hitting .161 over its last five. Edinson Volquez has allowed 15 ER in 10.1 IP lifetime against the Indians. And Lonnie Chisenhall is hot, having scored a run in five straight and having knocked in a run in four of those contests.
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians exploded for 10 runs on Wednesday to win their fifth in the last six meetings at Kansas City. They have averaged 5.32 rpg over their last 10. Here they will turn to reigning Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, who is 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA lifetime against the Royals. Cleveland's bullpen has a 1.84 ERA over its last five. Kansas City is hitting .161 over its last five. Edinson Volquez has allowed 15 ER in 10.1 IP lifetime against the Indians. And Lonnie Chisenhall is hot, having scored a run in five straight and having knocked in a run in four of those contests.
Record: 355-266-13 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +343.40%
Bankroll: +343.40%
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: Atlanta -131 (Foltynewicz vs. Williams)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz had a nice major-league debut last week against Cincinnati. He allowed two earned runs over five innings and helped his cause with a two-run double. Here he'll meet a Philadelphia team that is hitting .202 and is scoring 2.52 rpg vs. RH. Atlanta shut out the Phillies 9-0 on Tuesday, allowing just three hits. It was the Braves' second shutout in three games. Jerome Williams has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season. He is 2-3 with a 5.09 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) lifetime against Atlanta. He also has served up eight homers to the Braves in 46 innings.
Record: 354-266-13 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +333.48%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz had a nice major-league debut last week against Cincinnati. He allowed two earned runs over five innings and helped his cause with a two-run double. Here he'll meet a Philadelphia team that is hitting .202 and is scoring 2.52 rpg vs. RH. Atlanta shut out the Phillies 9-0 on Tuesday, allowing just three hits. It was the Braves' second shutout in three games. Jerome Williams has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season. He is 2-3 with a 5.09 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) lifetime against Atlanta. He also has served up eight homers to the Braves in 46 innings.
Record: 354-266-13 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +333.48%
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: Cleveland/Kansas City under 8 -121 (Salazar vs. Vargas)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Danny Salazar is unbeaten in three starts. He has a 3.32 ERA and has struck out 28 in 19 innings. Here he will not have to face Lorenzo Cain, the Royals' top hitter, because of Cain's suspension. Visiting Kansas City beat Cleveland on April 27 after Jason Vargas allowed just two runs over five innings despite walking five. The Royals, whose bullpen has a 1.00 ERA, should be even better with closer Greg Holland (strained pectoral muscle) back in the fold (he's expected to be activated on Tuesday). The Indians bullpen has a 0.87 ERA over its last five games. Cleveland also scores a half-run less per game vs. LH.
Record: 354-266-12 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +333.48%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Danny Salazar is unbeaten in three starts. He has a 3.32 ERA and has struck out 28 in 19 innings. Here he will not have to face Lorenzo Cain, the Royals' top hitter, because of Cain's suspension. Visiting Kansas City beat Cleveland on April 27 after Jason Vargas allowed just two runs over five innings despite walking five. The Royals, whose bullpen has a 1.00 ERA, should be even better with closer Greg Holland (strained pectoral muscle) back in the fold (he's expected to be activated on Tuesday). The Indians bullpen has a 0.87 ERA over its last five games. Cleveland also scores a half-run less per game vs. LH.
Record: 354-266-12 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +333.48%
Monday, May 4, 2015
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Miami/Washington under 7 +101 (Phelps vs. Zimmermann)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Nationals are coming off back-to-back 1-0 victories. Prior to that they were shut out 4-0. They are hitting .231 overall and are scoring 2.16 less rpg vs. RH. In three games against the Marlins last month, Washington scored four runs. On Monday the Nats will face David Phelps, who has a 1.53 ERA since joining Miami's rotation. Opponents are batting .194 against Phelps and only four Marlins have ever faced him. He has yet to allow a homer in 18.2 IP. Washington will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA lifetime against Miami. Throw out a poor start against Boston and Zimmermann is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA. He received a no-decision against the Marlins on April 24 after allowing two runs over six innings. Miami is hitting 29 points lower and is scoring 1.28 less rpg vs. RH.
Record: 354-265-12 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +346.89%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Nationals are coming off back-to-back 1-0 victories. Prior to that they were shut out 4-0. They are hitting .231 overall and are scoring 2.16 less rpg vs. RH. In three games against the Marlins last month, Washington scored four runs. On Monday the Nats will face David Phelps, who has a 1.53 ERA since joining Miami's rotation. Opponents are batting .194 against Phelps and only four Marlins have ever faced him. He has yet to allow a homer in 18.2 IP. Washington will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA lifetime against Miami. Throw out a poor start against Boston and Zimmermann is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA. He received a no-decision against the Marlins on April 24 after allowing two runs over six innings. Miami is hitting 29 points lower and is scoring 1.28 less rpg vs. RH.
Record: 354-265-12 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +346.89%
Sunday, May 3, 2015
NHL: Sunday's 8:30 p.m. ET play
Play: Minnesota +118
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Reasoning: The Wild are 26-17-1-1 on the road and 17-5 in their last 22 away from home. They are 30-13 in their last 43 overall. They have lost consecutive games only twice (both in shootouts) since goaltender Devan Dubnyk was acquired in mid-January. They fell behind Chicago 3-0 in Game 1 only to tie it in the second period in a span of eight minutes and nine seconds. The Blackhawks have allowed three goals in one period an astonishing five times this postseason. They are 1-for-14 on power plays in their last six games and have killed just 8-of-13 penalties in their last four. Minnesota, which has a much better penalty-killing unit, has killed 10-of-12 in its last seven contests and has converted three of its seven man-advantages in its last four. The Wild also have played the tougher schedule.
Record: 354-263-12 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +375.41%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Reasoning: The Wild are 26-17-1-1 on the road and 17-5 in their last 22 away from home. They are 30-13 in their last 43 overall. They have lost consecutive games only twice (both in shootouts) since goaltender Devan Dubnyk was acquired in mid-January. They fell behind Chicago 3-0 in Game 1 only to tie it in the second period in a span of eight minutes and nine seconds. The Blackhawks have allowed three goals in one period an astonishing five times this postseason. They are 1-for-14 on power plays in their last six games and have killed just 8-of-13 penalties in their last four. Minnesota, which has a much better penalty-killing unit, has killed 10-of-12 in its last seven contests and has converted three of its seven man-advantages in its last four. The Wild also have played the tougher schedule.
Record: 354-263-12 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +375.41%
NHL: Sunday's 6 p.m. ET play
Play: Montreal -125
Time: 6 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Reasoning: The Canadiens outplayed Tampa Bay in Game 1 and outshot the Lightning 44-35 before losing 2-1 in double overtime. In that game on Friday an apparent missed offsides call by officials and a waved-off goal doomed Montreal. At home the Canadiens are 28-10-4-3 and have connected on 20.7% of their power play chances. Tyler Johnson leads the NHL in playoff goals, but he was dinged in the third period and missed some time. Steven Stamkos hasn't scored in 11 straight playoff games. Montreal has played the tougher schedule and it swept Tampa Bay in last year's playoffs.
Record: 354-263-12 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +375.41%
Time: 6 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Reasoning: The Canadiens outplayed Tampa Bay in Game 1 and outshot the Lightning 44-35 before losing 2-1 in double overtime. In that game on Friday an apparent missed offsides call by officials and a waved-off goal doomed Montreal. At home the Canadiens are 28-10-4-3 and have connected on 20.7% of their power play chances. Tyler Johnson leads the NHL in playoff goals, but he was dinged in the third period and missed some time. Steven Stamkos hasn't scored in 11 straight playoff games. Montreal has played the tougher schedule and it swept Tampa Bay in last year's playoffs.
Record: 354-263-12 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +375.41%
Saturday, May 2, 2015
NBA: Saturday's play
Play: L.A. Clippers -3 -105
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Reasoning: Los Angeles is in the driver's seat now for Game 7 after winning the last meeting at San Antonio. The Clips won that one 102-96 but it shouldn't have been that close. Tim Duncan (12 points, 13 rebounds) was the only starter who played well. It would have been worse had Marco Belinelli not canned seven three-pointers. Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Patty Mills combined to go 12-of-44 (27.3%) from the field. And over the last three games Green is 6-of-24 shooting (2-of-16 on threes). Blake Griffin posted his sixth straight double-double in Game 6 and is averaging 24.2 points and 13.2 rebounds in the series. Chris Paul had 19 points, 15 assists and four steals in the last game and DeAndre Jordan is 28-of-40 from the field in the series. The Spurs are 24-20 on the road this season. L.A. has advantages in shooting, makes more threes and free-throws and it commits fewer turnovers. At home the Clippers are 31-13 and they've outscored opponents by 7.6 ppg in those contests.
Record: 354-262-12 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +390.11%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Reasoning: Los Angeles is in the driver's seat now for Game 7 after winning the last meeting at San Antonio. The Clips won that one 102-96 but it shouldn't have been that close. Tim Duncan (12 points, 13 rebounds) was the only starter who played well. It would have been worse had Marco Belinelli not canned seven three-pointers. Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Patty Mills combined to go 12-of-44 (27.3%) from the field. And over the last three games Green is 6-of-24 shooting (2-of-16 on threes). Blake Griffin posted his sixth straight double-double in Game 6 and is averaging 24.2 points and 13.2 rebounds in the series. Chris Paul had 19 points, 15 assists and four steals in the last game and DeAndre Jordan is 28-of-40 from the field in the series. The Spurs are 24-20 on the road this season. L.A. has advantages in shooting, makes more threes and free-throws and it commits fewer turnovers. At home the Clippers are 31-13 and they've outscored opponents by 7.6 ppg in those contests.
Record: 354-262-12 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +390.11%
Friday, May 1, 2015
MLB: Friday's plays
Play: Philadelphia/Miami under 8 -112 (Williams vs. Koehler)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The under is 17-8-1 in the last 26 meetings at Miami. Jerome Williams has allowed more than three runs only once this season and Ichiro (4-for-18, zero extra-base hits) is the only Marlin who has seen much of him. Tom Koehler threw 7.1 innings of scoreless ball in his last start (vs. Washington). Miami is scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. The Phillies bullpen has a 3.03 ERA. And Philadelphia is hitting .202 and is scoring 2.55 rpg vs. RH.
Play: Cleveland -124 (Buehrle vs. Carrasco)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Toronto has lost five of its last six. It used five pitchers on Thursday and is hitting 64 points lower vs. RH. Mark Buehrle has a 4.94 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP this season and is 16-17 with a 4.75 ERA in 49 career games against the Indians. Carlos Carrasco was roughed up in his last turn, but in two other starts (not counting his eight-pitch effort when he was hit with a comebacker), he spun a total of 11.1 IP with seven hits, one run and 18 Ks. Cleveland also has the better bullpen here. Additionally, Michael Brantley has heated up (13-for-28 in his last seven).
Record: 352-262-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +366.34%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The under is 17-8-1 in the last 26 meetings at Miami. Jerome Williams has allowed more than three runs only once this season and Ichiro (4-for-18, zero extra-base hits) is the only Marlin who has seen much of him. Tom Koehler threw 7.1 innings of scoreless ball in his last start (vs. Washington). Miami is scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. The Phillies bullpen has a 3.03 ERA. And Philadelphia is hitting .202 and is scoring 2.55 rpg vs. RH.
Play: Cleveland -124 (Buehrle vs. Carrasco)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Toronto has lost five of its last six. It used five pitchers on Thursday and is hitting 64 points lower vs. RH. Mark Buehrle has a 4.94 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP this season and is 16-17 with a 4.75 ERA in 49 career games against the Indians. Carlos Carrasco was roughed up in his last turn, but in two other starts (not counting his eight-pitch effort when he was hit with a comebacker), he spun a total of 11.1 IP with seven hits, one run and 18 Ks. Cleveland also has the better bullpen here. Additionally, Michael Brantley has heated up (13-for-28 in his last seven).
Record: 352-262-12 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +366.34%
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