MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Oakland -101 (Lester vs. Shields)

Time: 8:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Athletics backed into the playoffs, but on Tuesday they will start a guy who has had incredible success lately and against Kansas City and, maybe most importantly, in the postseason. Jon Lester has a 2.00 ERA in five starts this month and he has a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since arriving from Boston. He is 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA vs. the Royals in 2014 and he is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA in 13 career starts against them. Lester also was 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in the World Series last year and is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 13 career playoff appearances (11 starts). James Shields has the nickname "Big Game James," but history tells us he is 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six playoff starts. And Josh Reddick, who is 16-for-33 in his last 10 games, is hitting .318 with three homers in 22 at-bats lifetime against Shields. Bullpen-wise K.C. is solid. But Oakland's relievers are better (2.91 ERA vs. 3.30 ERA). And A's closer Sean Doolittle has 89 strikeouts against just eight walks. Oakland hits RH better and scores more against them and the Royals score less vs. LH. At home, Kansas City was just 42-39 this season. And will these teams' postseason experience be a factor? Because the A's are in the playoffs for the third straight season and the Royals are playing their first postseason game in 29 years.

Record: 192-143-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +118.30%

NFL: Monday's play

Play: New England/Kansas City under 47 -107


Time: 8:30 p.m. ET


Reasoning: Both teams are struggling to protect their QBs. The Patriots have allowed seven sacks, and with Tom Brady under so much duress he hasn't topped 250 yards in a game this season. Brady also is 26th out of 35 qualifiers in passer rating. The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL with nine sacks and they got to Ryan Tannehill four times last week. Kansas City LBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston have combined for five of the sacks. Because of the pressure, the Chiefs have allowed just five passing plays of 20 or more yards, and that's tied for the league lead. On offense, K.C. has allowed 11 sacks. New England, who now employs Darrelle Revis, has given up just 16 points in its last two games. It is third in total defense and No. 1 against the pass. And Chiefs punter Dustin Colquitt has amazing ability to drop punts inside the 20-yard line.

Record: 192-142-8 (57.5%)
Bankroll: +125.05%

NFL: Sunday's play

Play: Atlanta -3 -115

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater will make his first career start in place of Matt Cassel, who suffered a season-ending foot injury last week. Bridgewater, who will be the Vikings' eighth starting QB since the 2009 NFC Championship Game, will have to try to match the Falcons' top-ranked offense. Minnesota also will have to do it without Adrian Peterson, who is away from the team and trying to deal with child-abuse charges. The Vikings have scored just 16 points in their last two games and running back Matt Asiata didn't reach 40 yards rushing in either game. Matt Ryan has thrown for 965 yards and seven TDs in three games, and the Falcons put up 56 points last week against Tampa Bay. And they did that without the services of Roddy White (hamstring). White has told reporters he is healthy for this contest. Minnesota's defense will be without LB Chad Greenway (hand, broken rib). The Vikings offense will be without TE Kyle Rudolph (groin) for six weeks, and its already shaky line won't have RG Brandon Fusco (placed on IR, pectoral). Bridgewater missed some easy throws when he entered last week's game for Cassel, and he'll have to face an Atlanta pass rush that recorded three sacks and seven QB hits against the Buccaneers. Minnesota's pass rush has been inconsistent, so this one could get bloody. Look for Ryan to go after second-year CB Xavier Rhodes.












Record: 192-141-8 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +132.01%

NCAAF: Saturday's play

Play: Texas A&M -9 -109


Time: 3:30 p.m. ET


Reasoning: My power rankings say this line should be 14, so you're already getting five free points. The Aggies are looking for their first 5-0 start since 2001 and they've won two straight in this series (they won 45-33 at Arkansas in 2013 and 58-10 at home in 2012). Texas A&M is averaging an SEC-best 55.3 points per game and its won every game by at least 24 points. The Aggies opened the season with a 52-28 victory at then-No. 9 South Carolina in QB Kenny Hill's starting debut. Last week A&M totaled 663 yards in a 58-6 shellacking of Southern Methodist. The Aggies registered eight sacks in that one and didn't allow a first down until midway through the second quarter. So far this season nine receivers have scored TDs for A&M. So the Razorbacks, who may be down four defenders for this one, could be in some real trouble. Arkansas has lost 13 straight SEC contests. Hill is tied for third in the nation with 13 TD passes. And he can also do it with his feet, as evidenced by his 58-yard scamper on a busted play against SMU.


Record: 192-140-8 (57.8%)
Bankroll: +139.19%

No plays for Friday

Subscribers have been credited a day.


Record: 192-140-8 (57.8%)
Bankroll: +139.19%

NFL: Thursday's play

Play: N.Y. Giants/Washington over 46 -101

Time: 8:25 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The way these teams' offenses played last week, and with the injuries to their defenses, this could be a shootout. On Sunday New York scored 30 against Houston and the Redskins put up 34 against Philadelphia. The Giants got 176 yards out of RB Rashad Jennings against the Texans and Washington is second in the NFL in total offense (444 yards per game). Redskins QB Kirk Cousins, filling in for an injured Robert Griffin III, threw for a career-high 427 yards and three scores against the Eagles. Washington RB Alfred Morris is fourth in the league in rushing and WR DeSean Jackson has tortured New York (seven career TDs vs. the Giants). Against the Texans Eli Manning totaled 234 yards passing with two TDs and he didn't throw an interception for the first time in eight contests. Houston sacked Manning just once and entered that game having given up just 20 points in its first two games.Washington's defense has lost CB DeAngelo Hall (Achilles) and S Duke Ihenacho (foot) for the season, and LBs Brian Orakpo (left middle finger) and Jason Hatcher (hamstring) also are hurting. Orakpo will have to play wearing a hard cast. New York LB Jon Beason (foot) is doubtful for this one. And the forecast for Landover, Md. is ideal: temperatures in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies.

Record: 191-140-8 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +132.29

No plays for Wednesday

I've credited all of my subscribers another day on their subscriptions.

Record: 191-140-8 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +132.29

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Milwaukee/Cincinnati over 6 -108 (Fiers vs. Cueto)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I had a feeling this total would drop from its opening figure of 6.5 and it finally did. Games for these teams average between 7.33 and 8.15 runs in both the overall and the home/away splits. The starters (Mike Fiers and Johnny Cueto) have had excellent seasons, and thus the total is as low as it is even though they are playing this one in Great American Ball Park. Fiers allowed four earned runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings in his last start against the Reds. Cueto was rocked in his last start (6 ER, 5 BB in 5.2 IP vs. the Cubs). And Milwaukee 3B Aramis Ramirez is 14-for-42 with five homers and 11 RBIs versus Cueto. Bullpen-wise both teams are shaky (3.68 and 4.13, respectively, in overall ERA). Brewers relievers have a 4.38 ERA in their last five games and Cincinnati relievers have a 4.91 ERA in their last 10 games.


Record: 191-139-8 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +139.47%

No plays for Monday

Subscribers have had a day added to their subscriptions.



Record: 191-139-8 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +139.47%

NFL: Sunday's play

Play: Baltimore -1.5 -105

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Joe Flacco is 11-1 in his career against the Browns. The Ravens dominated last week in their 26-6 victory against Pittsburgh, and that game was on Thursday night. So they've had three extra days to prepare for this tilt. Even without Ray Rice Baltimore's run game seems to be doing fine (6.6 yards per carry). And the Ravens have averaged 160 rushing yards per game in their last six trips to Cleveland. Baltimore's defense has allowed just one touchdown in two games. That TD was the result of backup CB Chykie Brown getting beat on a 77-yard pass to A.J. Green. The Ravens, who many believe have their fastest defense in years, should have CBs Ladarius Webb (back) and Asa Jackson (concussion) available for this one. Cleveland likely will be without RB Ben Tate (knee), and TE Jordan Cameron (shoulder) has been limited.


Record: 190-139-8 (57.8%)
Bankroll: +132.82%

NCAAF: Saturday's play

Play: North Carolina +2.5 -105

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: My power rankings say this game should be a pick 'em, so there's automatic value with this line. East Carolina has an excellent quarterback in Shane Carden, but the Tar Heels boast a defense that can neutralize his effectiveness. North Carolina has intercepted five passes (and has forced nine turnovers) in two games. Cornerback Brian Walker has two of the picks, and he returned one 100 yards for a TD against San Diego State. The Heels' QB (Marquise Williams) is no slouch either. He can sling it and he also leads his squad in rushing. Williams has two game-breaking WRs in Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer, who also is dangerous when returning punts. North Carolina is coming off of a bye, is 12-3-1 in the all-time series and it's 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Pirates are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. teams with winning records.


Record: 190-138-8 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +140.02%

MLB: Friday's play

Play: Tampa Bay -129 (action vs. Hellickson)


Time: 7:10 ET

Reasoning: The White Sox have lost three of their last four and 13 of their last 17 on the road. The Rays have won three of their last four and their bullpen is nearly a run better per game than Chicago's bullpen (4.32 ERA). Jose Quintana has stringed together three together three straight solid starts, but prior to that he allowed 14 ER in 17.2 IP. He also has a 5.87 career ERA against Tampa Bay. Jeremy Hellickson has a 3.86 ERA lifetime against the Sox. And Evan Longoria has been playing like Hack Wilson since the All-Star break (46 RBI in 56 games).

 
Record: 190-137-8 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +147.45%

No plays for Thursday

Subscribers have been credited a day.

Record: 190-137-8 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +147.45%

No plays for Wednesday

Subscribers have been credited a day.


Record: 190-137-8 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +147.45%

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Toronto/Baltimore over 8 +105 (Hutchison vs. Jimenez)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Toronto has been getting a lot out of its starting pitching of late, but I think with Drew Hutchison toeing the slab Tuesday an implosion is in order. The right-hander has a 4.36 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He's been very good of late, but a closer look reveals that in his last four road starts he has coughed up 20 earned runs in his last 21.2 IP (8.31 ERA). For the Orioles, Ubaldo Jimenez, who only recently was brought back into the rotation after a demotion to the bullpen, has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. In his last three turns he has an 8.36 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. He also was leading the AL in walks before being relegated to relief duty, and he is 0-2 in his home starts this season vs. the Blue Jays. On top of this, the umpire for this contest is Chad Fairchild. His games have averaged 8.93 runs this season and over his last six seasons his games have averaged well over eight runs in each of those campaigns. Go back a few seasons and Fairchild posted years where his games averaged 10.65 runs and 10.97 runs. In 2014, Toronto games have averaged 8.77 runs and Baltimore games have averaged 8.05 runs. Both teams hit better and they each score a half-run more per game against RH. And the Blue Jays bullpen has a 4.13 ERA.

Record: 189-137-8 (58.0%)
Bankroll: +139.89%

NFL: Monday's play

Play: Philadelphia +3 -101


Time: 8:30 p.m. ET


Reasoning: How good is the Eagles' offense? Last week it became the first team in NFL history to win by at least 17 points after being shut out at the half while trailing by at least 17. How good is Philadelphia's defense? In Week 1 it forced six straight punts to open the second half, including four consecutive three-and-outs. Granted, the Eagles were playing Jacksonville. But those are some fairly decent halftime adjustments, no? Philadelphia's offensive line is a bit beat up, and, though it didn't allow a sack in the second half against the Jaguars, it did allow five in the first 30 minutes. But I don't think Indianapolis can take advantage of that. Counting the preseason, the Colts' starting defense has just three sacks in five games. Indy won't have linebacker Robert Mathis (the NFL's sack leader in 2013) this season because of his banned-substances suspension and his torn Achilles. Add to that the Colts' other problems at linebacker, so I expect Eagles tight ends Brent Celek and Zach Ertz to play big roles in Philly's offensive attack. The Eagles also have Jeremy Maclin back this season following his knee injury and he had four catches for 97 yards last week. Newcomer Darren Sproles added a TD and 71 yards against Jacksonville. On offense, Indy's line is porous (Andrew Luck has suffered 76 sacks over the last two years) and I expect the Eagles to thrive against it. And I don't know what to make of these historical notes, but LeSean McCoy is looking for his third straight 100-yard game on Monday Night Football and Philadelphia has won five straight road openers.


Record: 188-137-8 (57.8%)
Bankroll: +133.59%

NFL: Sunday's play

Play: Buffalo -1 -110

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I liked the Bills before Miami had troubles at linebacker. And I really like Buffalo now that Dannell Ellerbe (hip, placed on I-R) and Jordan Tripp (chest) won't play in this one, and Koa Misi (ankle) is doubtful and Chris McCain (illness, hip) should be slowed. The Bills racked up 193 rushing yards at Chicago last week, and three running backs totaled at least 50 yards. Quarterback EJ Manuel ran for a TD against the Bears and completed 72.7 percent of his passes. Manuel threw just one interception in that game and hit some downfield targets. And last season Buffalo didn't have Manuel for either of their games against the Dolphins and swept them anyway (23-21 and 19-0). In the shutout Miami rushed for just 14 yards and the Bills sacked Ryan Tannehill seven times and held him to 10-of-27 passing for 82 yards.


Record: 187-137-8 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +126.79% 

NCAAF: Saturday's play

Play: Virginia Tech -9.5 -109


Time: Noon ET

Reasoning: I really like the Hokies to blow out East Carolina. Virginia Tech dismantled Ohio State 35-21 at Ohio Stadium last week and it would have been a worse beating, but the Hokies committed three turnovers and missed a field goal. Against East Carolina, Virginia Tech has won the last four meetings and has allowed 10 or fewer points in three of those games. The Pirates have a pretty good quarterback in Shane Carden (two games, 604 yards), but he also tossed two second-half interceptions last week against South Carolina that led to 10 points.



Record: 187-136-8 (57.9%)
Bankroll: +133.80%

NCAAF: Baylor/Buffalo

Play: Baylor/Buffalo under 70 -110

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Bears can score, but there was a big difference with them playing FCS member Northwestern State (as the did last week) vs. an FBS school playing at home. For this tilt Baylor will be missing WRs Levi Norwood and Clay Fuller and it likely will be without Corey Coleman and Antwan Goodwin. On defense the Bears are ranked third nationally in points allowed (3.0 per game), first in rushing defense (27 yards per game), second in total defense (134.5 ypg) and tied for first in sacks per game (6). Buffalo scored 39 last week but it needed five second-half TDs to do so and the Bulls' opponent was Army.


Record: 187-135-8 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +141.03%

No plays for Thursday

Subscribers have been credited a day.



Record: 187-135-8 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +141.03%

MLB: Wednesday's play

Play: Houston/Seattle over 7 +113 (Tropeano vs. Iwakuma)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Hisashi Iwakuma is having a great season, but he has been horrendous of late. He has a 7.24 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in his last three starts. And he has a 4.12 ERA in three starts against the Astros this year. Jose Altuve, who leads the majors in batting (.336 avg), is 8-for-19 lifetime against Iwakuma, and SS Marwin Gonzalez (7-for-12) is even better. For Houston, whose games average 8.49 runs both home and away, Nick Tropeano will take the ball. The fifth-round pick in the 2011 draft will make his major-league debut, and because of that I expect the Mariners to get into the Astros bullpen. And Houston's relievers are atrocious (4.91 ERA). Calling the game tonight will be umpire Pat Hoberg, and his 29 games this season have averaged 9.00 runs.


Record: 187-135-7 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +141.03%

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Texas +1.5 -125 (Santiago vs. Lewis)

Time: 8:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Rangers would be 76-67 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 62-81 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Hector Santiago struggled in his last start (vs. Minnesota) and he has a 1.60 WHIP in his last three starts. In four appearances (three starts) against Texas this season he has a 4.42 ERA. The Rangers score 1.02 more runs per game vs. LH. Los Angeles scores a half-run less per game against RH, and Colby Lewis has a 1.09 WHIP in his last three starts. Josh Hamilton (shoulder) has missed the last four games and is day-to-day and Mike Trout is hitting just .235 against Texas in 2014. Leonys Martin is hitting .351 as a leadoff hitter this season.


Record: 187-134-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +148.48%

No plays for Monday

Good luck if you found something.

Subscribers have been credited a day.

Record: 187-134-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +148.48%

NFL: Sunday's 1 p.m. ET plays

Play: Philadelphia -10.5 -101

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Normally I don't like laying double-digits in the NFL, but my power rankings say the Eagles should be favored by 13 points. Philadelphia posted a team-record 442 points last season, and that was with inconsistent Alex Henery as its kicker. The Eagles won seven of their last eight games in 2013. Nick Foles had a 27-to-2 TD/INT ratio, the best in NFL history and thus he led the league with a 119.2 QB rating (third-best all-time). LeSean McCoy put up a franchise-high 1,607 rushing yards. Jeremy Maclin, who missed all of 2013, is back, and watch for rookie Jordan Matthews to showcase his considerable skills in this one. Add to that Riley Cooper's 521 yards and six scores in the final eight games last year. Defensively the Eagles allowed 22 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 games and Malcolm Jenkins was brought in to shore up the unit. Jacksonville's QB, Chad Henne, had more INTs (14) than TDs (13) last season. Life shouldn't get any easier on Sunday as WRs Justin Blackmon and Ace Sanders are suspended and Cecil Shorts III and Allen Robinson are battling hamstring injuries. The Jags put up just 293.8 ypg, worst in the AFC. Defensively the Jaguars stink as well, so I can see Chip Kelly's offense putting up Oregon Duck-like numbers at Lincoln Financial Field. Jacksonville allowed 131.8 yards per game rushing, fourth-worst in the league last season.



Play: Cincinnati +2 -108

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: My power rankings say the line should be where it is, but I think the result will be a decisive victory for the Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off of three straight postseason appearances and Baltimore went 8-8 last year. The Ravens head into this one without the services of Ray Rice (suspended for two games) and will have to run Bernard Pierce out there. He gained just 436 yards and scored only two TDs in 2013. Rice, who had a hip injury last season, rushed for only 660 yards and four TDs, his lowest totals since his rookie year in 2008. As a team Baltimore averaged a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry rushing, the lowest in the NFL since San Diego's 3.0 ypc in 2000. The Ravens have a shaky offensive line that will be exploited by a Bengals defense that will be helped by the return of DT Geno Atkins who tore his ACL last October. Cincinnati's defense ranked seventh in the league last year, allowing 282.2 yards per game, and the unit was second in the NFL in pass defense (159.2 ypg). Joe Flacco finished 2013 with 19 TDs against a career-high 22 interceptions (10 more than he allowed in his previous five seasons). Defensively, Baltimore is a shell of its former self (it ranked only 12th in both points and yards allowed, and it allowed 134 fourth-quarter points). I like the Bengals chances at moving the ball with Andy Dalton (whose numbers have improved in each of his first three seasons) calling the shots. Dalton has A.J. Green at his disposal, and all he did was set career bests in catches (98) and yards (1,426) while scoring 11 TDs for the second straight campaign. Green has more catches (260) in his first three seasons than any player in NFL history. Balancing Cincinnati's attack is fleet-footed sophomore Giovanni Bernard (1,209 scrimmage yards) and bruising rookie Jeremy Hill. The Bengals played the Ravens close last season in Baltimore, forcing overtime before falling 20-17.




Play: Chicago -6.5 -108

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Bears are better defensively and shouldn't have a hard time stopping second-year quarterback E.J. Manuel. The Florida State product had an inconsistent and injury-plagued rookie campaign and he and his starting offense went 18 straight possessions without a TD this preseason until they finally scored in the second half against Tampa Bay on Aug. 23. Buffalo was 28th in the NFL in passing (193.9 yards per game) in 2013. To improve the unit the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins fourth overall but he has been slowed by bruised ribs. Chicago improved its defense by bringing in five-time Pro Bowler Jared Allen, versatile LaMarr Houston and Willie Young to improve the line. On offense, under new coach Marc Trestman, the Bears improved from 29th to fifth in passing and from 28th to eighth overall. And that was with backup Josh McCown appearing in eight games and starting five in place of Jay Cutler, who was limited to 11 games due to ankle and groin injuries. Still, Cutler threw for 19 TDs against 12 interceptions, his QB rating was a career-high 89.2 and his completion percentage (63.1%) was his highest since 2007. He also has a rebuilt offensive line that should neutralize Buffalo's great pass rush. Weapons-wise for Chicago you have Pro Bowlers Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall (who combined for 189 receptions, 2,716 yards and 19 TDs) at wide receiver along with Santonio Holmes who was recently brought on board. At running back the Bears have Matt Forte (1,339 rushing yards, 1,933 scrimmage yards, nine TDs). Buffalo allowed 150-plus yards seven times in 2013 and it will be without Kiki Alonso, who suffered an ACL injury that required surgery shortly after he reported to training camp. Also on defense Chicago boasts the ageless Charles Tillman (30 interceptions and 30 forced fumbles since 2003) and S Chris Conte (concussion) has been cleared to play in this one. A little history: The Bears have won five straight home openers. The Bills have never won in Chicago and have been outscored there 135-39. Buffalo also hasn't tasted the playoffs in 15 years.

Play: New England -3.5 -107

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Last season Tom Brady, who turned 37 last month, had his lowest passer rating (87.3) since 2003. He still threw for 4,000 yards and led the Patriots to a 12-4 record and an appearance in the AFC championship game for the third straight season. And Brady did this without his top five receivers from 2012. This year he could have his his top nine receivers back including Rob Gronkowski, who said he'll play Sunday. New England also traded for TE Tim Wright and WR Brandon LaFell. Brady also loves playing the Miami, as he as accumulated a 17-7 record and 42 TDs against 20 interceptions in his career against the Dolphins. The Pats have won seven of the last eight against Miami. On defense the Dolphins will be without DL Dion Jordan and starting safety Reshad Jones for four games as they failed drug tests. New England's defense will have Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork back (they combined for just 10 games in 2013) and the unit also added Darrelle Revis. The Pats could go crazy against a Miami line that allowed Ryan Tannehill to be sacked an NFL-high 58 times last season.



Record: 185-132-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +149.10%

NCAAF: Saturday's play

Play: Southern Cal +3 -110

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Stanford has the nation's longest home winning streak (17 games) and has prevailed in 38 of their last 41 at home. Am I crazy going against the Cardinal? I say no. I was more impressed with SC's 52-13 win over Fresno State than Stanford's win against UC Davis in their openers. The Trojans beat the Cardinal last season and they are fresh off a 701-yard and 37-first-down performance (not a misprint) vs. the Bulldogs. Junior quarterback Cody Kessler earned Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors in Week 1 when he passed for 394 yards and four TDs. USC boasts a balanced attack with RB Javorius "Buck" Allen, who ran for 133 yards against Fresno State. Know this: The Trojans have blocked 25 kicks or punts since the start of the 2010 season and they are 33-10-2 at Stanford Stadium. Should be a hell of a game, with USC prevailing.


Record: 184-132-7 (58.2%)
Bankroll: +142.31%

MLB: Friday's play

Play: Arizona +1.5 -145 (Nuno vs. Haren)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Diamondbacks would be 82-58 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Dodgers would be 55-85 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Vidal Nuno has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his 10 starts with Arizona. He has a 2.25 ERA and a 25-to-4 walk ratio in his last four starts. Dan Haren has a 4.27 ERA overall and a 4.26 ERA in four starts against the Diamondbacks in 2014. Arizona CF A.J. Pollock is 13-for-36 against Los Angeles this season and Yasiel Puig (two homers since May 28) and Dee Gordon (28 K, 1 BB since July 26) have been horrible. The Dodgers are hitting .234 and are scoring a half-run less per game vs. LH.

Record: 183-132-7 (58.1%)
Bankroll: +137.4%

NFL: Thursday's play

Play: Green Bay +6 -110

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: CenturyLink Field is the toughest place in the NFL to play, but if anyone can win there (or keep it close) it's Green Bay. The Packers are 6-2 against the Seahawks since 2003, and Green Bay should have won the last meeting there in 2012, if not for a horrible call by a replacement ref at the end. The Packers have all of their offensive weapons healthy for this one and the guys who kept it close in that 2012 meeting (defensive linemen Chris Clemons and Red Bryant) are no longer with Seattle. Clinton McDonald is also gone. Aaron Rodgers missed seven games last season but he still posted his fifth-straight season with a 100-plus passer rating. He has tossed 101 TDs against 20 interceptions over the last three campaigns. Balancing the offensive load for Green Bay is Eddie Lacy. All he did was rush for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs en route to becoming the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2013. Defensively Clay Matthews is healthy and free-agent signee Julius Peppers should help keep Russell Wilson in check. This should be a hell of a game, and it's just too many points to give Rodgers and Co. My power rankings say the 'hawks should be favored by 4.5.

Record: 183-131-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +144.74%

Wednesday's Kansas City/Texas

Play: Kansas City/Texas over 8 -115 (Tepesch vs. Vargas)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Each bullpen has been terrible enough in the home/away splits (4.62 and 4.15, respectively) to justify an over play, but these starters have me salivating. Nick Tepesch is being recalled from Triple-A Round Rock for this one, and he has a 4.44 ERA overall and a 5.09 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts. Jason Vargas also has a 1.58 WHIP in his last three turns and Texas loves facing LH (1.21 more runs per game against them and it has averaged 6.94 vs. LH in its last five contests). Tepesch allowed Kansas City six runs in 6.1 IP in his last try against the Royals, and he has walked 10 in his last three outings. Vargas allowed four runs and 10 hits over six innings in his last appearance. He is 4-8 lifetime against the Rangers and yielded 11 hits in six innings to Texas on Aug. 24.

Record: 182-130-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +145.53%

Wednesday's Pittsburgh/St. Louis

Play: St. Louis -112 (action vs. Miller)

Time: 1:45 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Cardinals have won four straight and are vying for a sweep of the Pirates. St. Louis has averaged 7.46 runs per game over its last five. Pittsburgh has averaged 3.14 rpg in its last five. Shelby Miller allowed the Cubs just two runs over seven innings in his last start. Edison Volquez has a 3.96 ERA vs. St. Louis this season and has a 1.37 WHIP in his last three outings overall. The Cardinals bullpen is about a half-run better than that of the Pirates in the home/away splits. St. Louis is 43-28 at home and Pittsburgh is 27-39 on the road.



Record: 182-130-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +145.53%

No plays for Tuesday

Subscribers have been credited a day. 

Record: 182-130-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +145.53%

MLB: Monday's plays

Plays: Arizona +1.5 -160 and Arizona/San Diego over 6.5 +100 (Cahill vs. Ross)


Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Diamondbacks would be 79-57 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Padres would be 38-97 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Trevor Cahill has recorded quality starts in five of his last six games. In four career starts at Petco Park he has a 1.71 ERA and he has a 2.72 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against San Diego. Still, I only expect Cahill to limit the Padres, not shut them down, because he has 4.98 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 2014. Tyson Ross is awesome, but he ain't Greg Maddux. He has posted a franchise-record 13 straight quality starts, but that's got to end at some point, right? Arizona games average 8.49 runs. The Diamondbacks are 8-4 this season vs. the Padres and 4-2 at Petco. Arizona should activate Cody Ross (calf) for this game. San Diego's closer, Joaquin Benoit (shoulder) will miss this series. The Diamondbacks have had a shaky bullpen (3.79 ERA) all season. Plus, it's a day game in San Diego, and it has been unseasonably hot down by the waterfront ballpark. So those usual fly balls at die at the warning track in night games might just reach the seats during this afternoon tilt. And we only need seven or more runs to cash the over bet.


Record: 182-128-7 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +161.20%