Play: Chi. Cubs -101 (Hammel vs. Jungmann)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: WGN
Reasoning: Jason Hammel is winless in his last eight starts, but he still has a 3.20 ERA on the season. He also is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA in eight lifetime starts against Milwaukee. In five turns at Miller Park, Hammel is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA. The Cubs are 27-23 on the road and the Brewers are 20-30 at home. Chicago is averaging 4.80 rpg in its last five vs. RH. Anthony Rizzo, who had three hits on Thursday, has homered in back-to-back contests. Dexter Fowler is hitting .389 and has a .532 OBP in his last 10. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 5.47 ERA in its last 10 and a 6.75 ERA in its last five. The Brewers are hitting .199 and are averaging 1.80 rpg over their last five.
Record: 406-318-17 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +249.26%
Friday, July 31, 2015
Thursday, July 30, 2015
MLB: Thursday's play
Play: Boston +1.5 -110 (Sale vs. Wright)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Red Sox would be 56-46 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Chicago would be 29-70 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Chris Sale has been hittable in his last three starts, posting a 1.28 WHIP. Boston is hitting .281 and is scoring 5.70 rpg over its last 10 vs. LH. In its last five against southpaws, it is hitting .323 and is scoring 7.04 rpg. And the White Sox have never seen knuckleballer Steven Wright.
Record: 405-318-17 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +239.99%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Red Sox would be 56-46 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Chicago would be 29-70 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Chris Sale has been hittable in his last three starts, posting a 1.28 WHIP. Boston is hitting .281 and is scoring 5.70 rpg over its last 10 vs. LH. In its last five against southpaws, it is hitting .323 and is scoring 7.04 rpg. And the White Sox have never seen knuckleballer Steven Wright.
Record: 405-318-17 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +239.99%
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
MLB: Wednesday's 8:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Texas +1.5 -115 (Tanaka vs. Lewis)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 63-36 if they were given 1.5 rpg. New York would be 41-58 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Bombers will face Colby Lewis, who has posted quality starts in nine of his last 10. He has a 2.86 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP in his last three. Texas will oppose Masahiro Tanaka, who has allowed 11 homers over his last six turns. The Rangers hit 22 points higher and score a half-run more per game vs. RH. Over their last 10 games against RH, they have averaged 6.20 rpg.
Record: 403-318-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.91%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 63-36 if they were given 1.5 rpg. New York would be 41-58 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Bombers will face Colby Lewis, who has posted quality starts in nine of his last 10. He has a 2.86 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP in his last three. Texas will oppose Masahiro Tanaka, who has allowed 11 homers over his last six turns. The Rangers hit 22 points higher and score a half-run more per game vs. RH. Over their last 10 games against RH, they have averaged 6.20 rpg.
Record: 403-318-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.91%
MLB: Wednesday's 7:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Washington -112 (Fister vs. Koehler)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are back after long stays on the DL. Unlike Miami, the Nationals hit better against RH. The Marlins are hitting 32 points lower and are scoring 1.12 fewer rpg vs. RH. Doug Fister is 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA in four career games (three starts) against Miami. And Washington's bullpen is nearly as good as that of the Marlins.
Record: 403-318-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.91%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are back after long stays on the DL. Unlike Miami, the Nationals hit better against RH. The Marlins are hitting 32 points lower and are scoring 1.12 fewer rpg vs. RH. Doug Fister is 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA in four career games (three starts) against Miami. And Washington's bullpen is nearly as good as that of the Marlins.
Record: 403-318-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.91%
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's plays
Play: Philadelphia +1.5 +115
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: There is fight in these Phillies as they have won eight of nine. They would be 54-46 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 40-60 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Blue Jays are hitting .176 over their last five games against LH, and they've never seen Adam Morgan. Philadelphia is hitting .286 in its last five vs. LH, and opponents are hitting .329 against Felix Doubront. Phillies relievers have a 1.08 ERA in their last five.
Play: Cleveland -123 (Young vs. Bauer)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Young is just a place-holder in Kansas City's rotation. He hasn't gone more than six innings in any of his last seven starts. He allowed four runs and two homers in three innings in his last start. On June 4 Young allowed the Indians six runs over five innings. Trevor Bauer opposed Young in that game and gave up just two runs in 6.2 IP. Cleveland scores 0.34 more rpg vs. RH. Watch for rookie Francisco Lindor, who has hit safely in 10 of his last 11.
Record: 402-317-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.46%
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: There is fight in these Phillies as they have won eight of nine. They would be 54-46 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 40-60 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Blue Jays are hitting .176 over their last five games against LH, and they've never seen Adam Morgan. Philadelphia is hitting .286 in its last five vs. LH, and opponents are hitting .329 against Felix Doubront. Phillies relievers have a 1.08 ERA in their last five.
Play: Cleveland -123 (Young vs. Bauer)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chris Young is just a place-holder in Kansas City's rotation. He hasn't gone more than six innings in any of his last seven starts. He allowed four runs and two homers in three innings in his last start. On June 4 Young allowed the Indians six runs over five innings. Trevor Bauer opposed Young in that game and gave up just two runs in 6.2 IP. Cleveland scores 0.34 more rpg vs. RH. Watch for rookie Francisco Lindor, who has hit safely in 10 of his last 11.
Record: 402-317-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.46%
Monday, July 27, 2015
MLB: Monday's plays
Play: Cleveland -106 (Volquez vs. Anderson)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edinson Volquez walked six and gave up three runs in three innings in his last start against the Indians on May 7. He has an 11.48 ERA in four lifetime turns against the Tribe. Kansas City has never seen Cody Anderson, and he's allowed just one run in 14.1 innings at home. Anderson has a 1.91 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Cleveland scores 0.34 more rpg vs. RH. The Royals are hitting .239 and are averaging only 3.07 rpg in their last five vs. RH.
Play: Tampa Bay -113 (Sanchez vs. Karns)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Anibal Sanchez has permitted at least four runs in four of his last five starts and has allowed eight homers in his last six. He has a 5.08 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Nathan Karns pitched five scoreless innings his last time out and he has limited the opposition to two or fewer runs in 14 of 19 starts. Detroit has never seen him. Tampa Bay relievers have a 1.60 ERA and Tigers relievers have a 5.13 ERA in their last 10 contests.
Record: 401-316-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.57%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edinson Volquez walked six and gave up three runs in three innings in his last start against the Indians on May 7. He has an 11.48 ERA in four lifetime turns against the Tribe. Kansas City has never seen Cody Anderson, and he's allowed just one run in 14.1 innings at home. Anderson has a 1.91 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Cleveland scores 0.34 more rpg vs. RH. The Royals are hitting .239 and are averaging only 3.07 rpg in their last five vs. RH.
Play: Tampa Bay -113 (Sanchez vs. Karns)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Anibal Sanchez has permitted at least four runs in four of his last five starts and has allowed eight homers in his last six. He has a 5.08 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Nathan Karns pitched five scoreless innings his last time out and he has limited the opposition to two or fewer runs in 14 of 19 starts. Detroit has never seen him. Tampa Bay relievers have a 1.60 ERA and Tigers relievers have a 5.13 ERA in their last 10 contests.
Record: 401-316-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.57%
Friday, July 24, 2015
MLB: Friday's play
Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -150 (Quintana vs. Kluber)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 60-33 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Cleveland would be 34-58 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Chicago is hitting 21 points higher and is scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. It has averaged 4.98 rpg over its last five vs. RH. The Indians score fewer rpg vs. LH and they have averaged only 1.42 rpg in their last five against southpaws. Jose Quintana lasted just 5.1 innings in his last start, but prior to that he lasted at least six innings in 12 straight. He didn't allow Cleveland an earned run over six innings on April 14 and allowed just two runs over seven innings against the Indians on May 19. White Sox relievers have a 2.89 ERA in their last five and a 1.89 ERA in their last 10. Cleveland is 19-27 at home and its relievers have a 4.08 ERA over the last five.
Record: 400-316-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +216.24
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The White Sox would be 60-33 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Cleveland would be 34-58 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Chicago is hitting 21 points higher and is scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. It has averaged 4.98 rpg over its last five vs. RH. The Indians score fewer rpg vs. LH and they have averaged only 1.42 rpg in their last five against southpaws. Jose Quintana lasted just 5.1 innings in his last start, but prior to that he lasted at least six innings in 12 straight. He didn't allow Cleveland an earned run over six innings on April 14 and allowed just two runs over seven innings against the Indians on May 19. White Sox relievers have a 2.89 ERA in their last five and a 1.89 ERA in their last 10. Cleveland is 19-27 at home and its relievers have a 4.08 ERA over the last five.
Record: 400-316-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +216.24
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: Toronto +1.5 -150 (Doubront vs. Gray)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays would be 67-28 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Oakland would be 34-61 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The A's are 6-17 and are scoring a half-run fewer per game against LH. The Blue Jays lead the majors in scoring and their relievers have a 3.57 ERA. They have averaged 6.47 rpg in their last five vs. RH. Oakland is 20-28 at home and its bullpen has a 4.24 ERA. Sonny Gray, who allowed five runs in six innings in his last turn, is a first-half pitcher. Before the All-Star break he is 20-6 with a 2.40 ERA in 38 career starts. After the break, he is 9-11 with a 3.35 ERA in 26 career starts.
break.
Record: 399-316-17 (55.8%)
Bankroll: +210.04
.
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays would be 67-28 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Oakland would be 34-61 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The A's are 6-17 and are scoring a half-run fewer per game against LH. The Blue Jays lead the majors in scoring and their relievers have a 3.57 ERA. They have averaged 6.47 rpg in their last five vs. RH. Oakland is 20-28 at home and its bullpen has a 4.24 ERA. Sonny Gray, who allowed five runs in six innings in his last turn, is a first-half pitcher. Before the All-Star break he is 20-6 with a 2.40 ERA in 38 career starts. After the break, he is 9-11 with a 3.35 ERA in 26 career starts.
break.
Record: 399-316-17 (55.8%)
Bankroll: +210.04
.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's 8:10 p.m. ET plays
Play: Houston -128 (Johnson vs. Velasquez)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Boston has lost five straight and played a double-header at Los Angeles yesterday. Over the last five games, the Red Sox are hitting .187 vs. RH and the Astros are hitting .312 vs. LH. Boston will give the ball to Brian Johnson and he will make his major-league debut in place of Clay Buchholz, who is on the DL with a strained right flexor tendon. Vincent Velasquez will go for Houston and he gave up just two runs over 6.1 IP in his last start. He has worked 6.1 innings in each of his last three turns and has a 1.05 WHIP over that span. Astros relievers have a 2.73 ERA and Red Sox relievers have a 3.77 ERA. Houston is 30-17 at home and Boston is 20-28 on the road.
Play: Cleveland -115 (Salazar vs. Garza)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Matt Garza (right shoulder tendinitis) is coming off of the DL and he has a 5.55 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has a 7.79 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP over his last three outings. Over his last five starts, Garza has allowed 29 runs on 48 hits in 30 innings. He is 2-4 lifetime against the Indians and Michael Bourn has worn him out (10-for-19 lifetime). Danny Salazar has a 3.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP overall and a 2.57 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over his last three. Milwaukee has never seen Salazar and he allowed just one run (unearned) over 8.2 innings in his last go-around. The Brewers are an NL-worst 19-28 at home.
Record: 398-314-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.80
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Boston has lost five straight and played a double-header at Los Angeles yesterday. Over the last five games, the Red Sox are hitting .187 vs. RH and the Astros are hitting .312 vs. LH. Boston will give the ball to Brian Johnson and he will make his major-league debut in place of Clay Buchholz, who is on the DL with a strained right flexor tendon. Vincent Velasquez will go for Houston and he gave up just two runs over 6.1 IP in his last start. He has worked 6.1 innings in each of his last three turns and has a 1.05 WHIP over that span. Astros relievers have a 2.73 ERA and Red Sox relievers have a 3.77 ERA. Houston is 30-17 at home and Boston is 20-28 on the road.
Play: Cleveland -115 (Salazar vs. Garza)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Matt Garza (right shoulder tendinitis) is coming off of the DL and he has a 5.55 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has a 7.79 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP over his last three outings. Over his last five starts, Garza has allowed 29 runs on 48 hits in 30 innings. He is 2-4 lifetime against the Indians and Michael Bourn has worn him out (10-for-19 lifetime). Danny Salazar has a 3.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP overall and a 2.57 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over his last three. Milwaukee has never seen Salazar and he allowed just one run (unearned) over 8.2 innings in his last go-around. The Brewers are an NL-worst 19-28 at home.
Record: 398-314-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.80
MLB: Tuesday's 7:08 p.m. ET play
Play: Detroit +1.5 -140 (Walker vs. Greene)
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Tigers would be 59-33 if they were given 1.5 rpg. The Mariners would be 24-69 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Seattle is scoring just 3.49 rpg and is hitting .228 vs. RH. Detroit is scoring 4.51 rpg and is hitting .276 vs. RH. Over their last five contests, Mariners relievers have a 5.84 ERA and Tigers relievers have a 2.65 ERA. On July 7 Taijuan Walker allowed Detroit five runs and three home runs. He has a 4.84 ERA overall and a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts. Shane Greene has had a horrible season, but he has the ability to dominate. He won his first three starts while posting a 0.39 ERA.
Record: 398-314-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.80
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Tigers would be 59-33 if they were given 1.5 rpg. The Mariners would be 24-69 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Seattle is scoring just 3.49 rpg and is hitting .228 vs. RH. Detroit is scoring 4.51 rpg and is hitting .276 vs. RH. Over their last five contests, Mariners relievers have a 5.84 ERA and Tigers relievers have a 2.65 ERA. On July 7 Taijuan Walker allowed Detroit five runs and three home runs. He has a 4.84 ERA overall and a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts. Shane Greene has had a horrible season, but he has the ability to dominate. He won his first three starts while posting a 0.39 ERA.
Record: 398-314-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.80
Sunday, July 19, 2015
No plays for Monday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 398-314-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.80
Record: 398-314-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.80
MLB: Sunday's play
Play: Cleveland +100 (Carrasco vs. Cueto)
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians have won four of the five meetings this season and have outscored Cincinnati 23-10 in their victories. The Reds have lost three of their last four and have been outscored 31-8 over that span. Carlos Carrasco allowed two runs over seven innings in his last start. It was the fifth time in his last six outings where he allowed three runs or fewer. He is 2-0 lifetime against Cincinnati. Against the Reds on May 22, Carrasco yielded two runs on four hits over six innings. Johnny Cueto allowed five runs over five frames in his last turn. Cleveland scores more vs. RH while the Reds score nearly one fewer run per game against RH. Cincinnati relievers have a 4.22 ERA overall, a 7.71 ERA over the last 10 games and an 8.59 ERA over the last five. Indians relievers have a 3.12 ERA.
Record: 397-314-17 (55.8%)
Bankroll: +212.43
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians have won four of the five meetings this season and have outscored Cincinnati 23-10 in their victories. The Reds have lost three of their last four and have been outscored 31-8 over that span. Carlos Carrasco allowed two runs over seven innings in his last start. It was the fifth time in his last six outings where he allowed three runs or fewer. He is 2-0 lifetime against Cincinnati. Against the Reds on May 22, Carrasco yielded two runs on four hits over six innings. Johnny Cueto allowed five runs over five frames in his last turn. Cleveland scores more vs. RH while the Reds score nearly one fewer run per game against RH. Cincinnati relievers have a 4.22 ERA overall, a 7.71 ERA over the last 10 games and an 8.59 ERA over the last five. Indians relievers have a 3.12 ERA.
Record: 397-314-17 (55.8%)
Bankroll: +212.43
Saturday, July 18, 2015
No plays for Saturday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 397-314-17 (55.8%
Bankroll: +212.43
Record: 397-314-17 (55.8%
Bankroll: +212.43
Friday, July 17, 2015
MLB: Friday's play
Play: Chi. Cubs -124 (Hendricks vs. Teheran)
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kyle Hendricks, who went 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA as a rookie last year, has pitched 20.1 scoreless innings over his last three starts. Atlanta, which has lost five straight, is hitting .190 and is scoring 2.17 rpg over its last five vs. RH. Julio Teheran, who has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, has a 5.12 ERA over his last nine turns. Cubs relievers have a 3.13 ERA and Braves relievers have a 4.40 ERA. Atlanta's bullpen has a 7.02 ERA over its last five.
Record: 397-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.09
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kyle Hendricks, who went 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA as a rookie last year, has pitched 20.1 scoreless innings over his last three starts. Atlanta, which has lost five straight, is hitting .190 and is scoring 2.17 rpg over its last five vs. RH. Julio Teheran, who has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, has a 5.12 ERA over his last nine turns. Cubs relievers have a 3.13 ERA and Braves relievers have a 4.40 ERA. Atlanta's bullpen has a 7.02 ERA over its last five.
Record: 397-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.09
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
No plays for Wednesday or Thursday
Subscribers have been credited two days. I'll see if I can find a game or two on Friday after the All-Star break.
Record: 397-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.09
Record: 397-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +222.09
MLB: Tuesday's play
MLB: AL/NL over 7 -120
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both squads are full of guys who have mashed it this year, and each starting lineup features four players with 20 or more homers. Most importantly this game will be played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Contests there have averaged 9.10 runs. There should be a slight breeze out to center field which should help balls travel.
Record: 396-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.23%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both squads are full of guys who have mashed it this year, and each starting lineup features four players with 20 or more homers. Most importantly this game will be played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Contests there have averaged 9.10 runs. There should be a slight breeze out to center field which should help balls travel.
Record: 396-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.23%
Sunday, July 12, 2015
No plays for Monday
I may have an All-Star Game play. Stay tuned.
Record: 396-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.23%
Record: 396-313-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.23%
MLB: Sunday's play
Play: Toronto +100 (Doubront vs. Volquez)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edinson Volquez is 8-4, but he's failed to last six innings in six of his last eight starts. He has surrendered 21 runs (19 earned) in 19.1 IP lifetime against the Blue Jays. Felix Doubront will make his second start of the season for Toronto. In his 2015 debut he allowed one run on six hits over 6.2 IP. The Royals are hitting .207 and are scoring 2.35 rpg over their last five vs. LH. Jose Reyes is 11-for-33 with four stolen bases and four runs scored during a seven-game hitting streak.
Record: 396-312-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +223.95%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edinson Volquez is 8-4, but he's failed to last six innings in six of his last eight starts. He has surrendered 21 runs (19 earned) in 19.1 IP lifetime against the Blue Jays. Felix Doubront will make his second start of the season for Toronto. In his 2015 debut he allowed one run on six hits over 6.2 IP. The Royals are hitting .207 and are scoring 2.35 rpg over their last five vs. LH. Jose Reyes is 11-for-33 with four stolen bases and four runs scored during a seven-game hitting streak.
Record: 396-312-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +223.95%
Saturday, July 11, 2015
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Cincinnati/Miami over 7.5 +102 (Iglesias vs. Conley)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both starters are fill-ins for injured Anthony DeSclafani (glute) and Mat Latos (foot). Raisel Iglesias, who will go for the Reds, is himself coming off of the DL (oblique). Iglesias has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. In his last start he allowed five runs on nine hits over 5.2 IP. Southpaw Adam Conley will take the hill for the Marlins and make his major-league debut. Cincinnati scores nearly one more run per game vs. LH. Reds relievers have a 5.64 ERA in their last 10. And games umpired by Lance Barksdale have averaged 8.69 runs.
Record: 395-312-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.33%
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both starters are fill-ins for injured Anthony DeSclafani (glute) and Mat Latos (foot). Raisel Iglesias, who will go for the Reds, is himself coming off of the DL (oblique). Iglesias has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. In his last start he allowed five runs on nine hits over 5.2 IP. Southpaw Adam Conley will take the hill for the Marlins and make his major-league debut. Cincinnati scores nearly one more run per game vs. LH. Reds relievers have a 5.64 ERA in their last 10. And games umpired by Lance Barksdale have averaged 8.69 runs.
Record: 395-312-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.33%
Friday, July 10, 2015
MLB: Friday's 8:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Detroit +1.5 -165 (Verlander vs. Santana)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Tigers would be 57-28 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Minnesota would be 33-53 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Detroit is 8-2 this season vs. the Twins. Minnesota is scoring nearly one run fewer per game vs. RH. Justin Verlander is 15-8 with a 3.19 ERA lifetime against the Twins. Ervin Santana will make just his second start of 2015 after coming back from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Over the last five games, the Tigers bullpen has a 2.41 ERA and Minnesota's relievers have a 3.60 ERA. Yoenis Cespedes is batting .363 lifetime against the Twins, hitting safely in 22 of 25 games.
Record: 394-311-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.52%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Tigers would be 57-28 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Minnesota would be 33-53 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Detroit is 8-2 this season vs. the Twins. Minnesota is scoring nearly one run fewer per game vs. RH. Justin Verlander is 15-8 with a 3.19 ERA lifetime against the Twins. Ervin Santana will make just his second start of 2015 after coming back from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Over the last five games, the Tigers bullpen has a 2.41 ERA and Minnesota's relievers have a 3.60 ERA. Yoenis Cespedes is batting .363 lifetime against the Twins, hitting safely in 22 of 25 games.
Record: 394-311-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.52%
MLB: Friday's 7:05 p.m. ET play
Play: St. Louis/Pittsburgh over 6 -102 (Lynn vs. Cole)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both clubs hit better and each is scoring nearly one more run per game vs. RH. Games for each of these teams average at least 6.86 runs both overall and in the home/away splits. Gerrit Cole has a 4.66 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in his last three starts. Lance Lynn has a 4.43 ERA in 16 outings (14 starts) lifetime against the Pirates. The Cardinals bullpen has a 5.04 ERA over its last 10 contests. And games umpired by Brian O'Nora have averaged 8.67 runs
Record: 394-311-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.52%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both clubs hit better and each is scoring nearly one more run per game vs. RH. Games for each of these teams average at least 6.86 runs both overall and in the home/away splits. Gerrit Cole has a 4.66 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in his last three starts. Lance Lynn has a 4.43 ERA in 16 outings (14 starts) lifetime against the Pirates. The Cardinals bullpen has a 5.04 ERA over its last 10 contests. And games umpired by Brian O'Nora have averaged 8.67 runs
Record: 394-311-17 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +214.52%
Thursday, July 9, 2015
MLB: Thursday's 2:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Tampa Bay +1.5 -175 (Karns vs. Ventura)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rays would be 59-28 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Kansas City would be 39-43 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Nathan Karns has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five. Karns is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in six road starts, and the Royals have never seen him. Yordano Ventura will make his first start in a month because of a hand injury, and Kansas City is 0-4 in his last four starts. He enters with a 4.68 ERA. Tampa Bay has averaged 5.18 rpg over its last five vs. RH. John Jaso has returned from a wrist injury following three months on the shelf, and he is 6-of-8 since his return. Alex Gordon (groin) was carted off the field on Wednesday.
Record: 394-309-17 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +234.60%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rays would be 59-28 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Kansas City would be 39-43 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Nathan Karns has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five. Karns is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in six road starts, and the Royals have never seen him. Yordano Ventura will make his first start in a month because of a hand injury, and Kansas City is 0-4 in his last four starts. He enters with a 4.68 ERA. Tampa Bay has averaged 5.18 rpg over its last five vs. RH. John Jaso has returned from a wrist injury following three months on the shelf, and he is 6-of-8 since his return. Alex Gordon (groin) was carted off the field on Wednesday.
Record: 394-309-17 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +234.60%
MLB: Thursday's 1:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Oakland +132 (Chavez vs. Tanaka)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: The Athletics fell 5-4 on Wednesday, but prior to that they won seven straight on the road. Here they will face Masahiro Tanaka and he's winless in his last four starts. Tanaka has allowed 18 runs over his last 23 innings. Oakland counters with Jesse Chavez, who has a 3.20 ERA. He is 4-0 lifetime against New York with a 1.63 ERA. The A's are hitting 25 points better and are scoring nearly one run more per game vs. RH. The Yankees are hitting .197 and are scoring just 3.27 rpg in their last 10 vs. RH.
Record: 394-309-17 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +234.60%
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: The Athletics fell 5-4 on Wednesday, but prior to that they won seven straight on the road. Here they will face Masahiro Tanaka and he's winless in his last four starts. Tanaka has allowed 18 runs over his last 23 innings. Oakland counters with Jesse Chavez, who has a 3.20 ERA. He is 4-0 lifetime against New York with a 1.63 ERA. The A's are hitting 25 points better and are scoring nearly one run more per game vs. RH. The Yankees are hitting .197 and are scoring just 3.27 rpg in their last 10 vs. RH.
Record: 394-309-17 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +234.60%
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
MLB: Wednesday's 8:40 p.m. ET play
Play: Colorado +1.5 -140 (Shoemaker vs. Rusin)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 45-38 if they were given 1.5 rpg. The Angels would be 31-52 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Christopher Rusin has a 2.95 ERA in his last three outings and he is 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA at Coors Field. He allowed just one earned run over six innings in his last go-around, and Los Angeles has never faced him. Matt Shoemaker is winless in his last four tries and has just one win in his last eight. He has a 5.17 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in his last three outings. The Angels are scoring a half-run fewer per game vs. LH. Colorado is scoring 1.34 more rpg vs. RH. Rockies relievers have been better than their L.A. counterparts over each teams' last five tilts. Additionally, Troy Tulowitzski has reached base in 34 straight and has a 19-game hitting streak.
Record: 392-309-16 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.28%
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 45-38 if they were given 1.5 rpg. The Angels would be 31-52 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Christopher Rusin has a 2.95 ERA in his last three outings and he is 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA at Coors Field. He allowed just one earned run over six innings in his last go-around, and Los Angeles has never faced him. Matt Shoemaker is winless in his last four tries and has just one win in his last eight. He has a 5.17 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in his last three outings. The Angels are scoring a half-run fewer per game vs. LH. Colorado is scoring 1.34 more rpg vs. RH. Rockies relievers have been better than their L.A. counterparts over each teams' last five tilts. Additionally, Troy Tulowitzski has reached base in 34 straight and has a 19-game hitting streak.
Record: 392-309-16 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.28%
MLB: Wednesday's 7:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Cincinnati +1.5 -145 (Lorenzen vs. Gonzalez)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds would be 53-29 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Washington would be 32-52 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Nationals, who mustered just two hits on Tuesday, are hitting .205 and are scoring 3.10 rpg in their last 10 vs. RH. They are hitting .176 and are scoring 2.48 rpg in their last five vs. RH. Cincinnati is scoring 0.71 more rpg vs. LH. It will face Gio Gonzalez here, and he enters with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. On May 30 he allowed the Reds four runs on seven hits with two walks in 5.1 innings. On May 31 Michael Lorenzen gave up only one hit to the Nats in 6.1 innings. Both Denard Span (back) and Yunel Escobar (hamstring) are questionable for this one after missing Tuesday's contest.
Record: 392-309-16 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.28%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Reds would be 53-29 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Washington would be 32-52 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Nationals, who mustered just two hits on Tuesday, are hitting .205 and are scoring 3.10 rpg in their last 10 vs. RH. They are hitting .176 and are scoring 2.48 rpg in their last five vs. RH. Cincinnati is scoring 0.71 more rpg vs. LH. It will face Gio Gonzalez here, and he enters with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. On May 30 he allowed the Reds four runs on seven hits with two walks in 5.1 innings. On May 31 Michael Lorenzen gave up only one hit to the Nats in 6.1 innings. Both Denard Span (back) and Yunel Escobar (hamstring) are questionable for this one after missing Tuesday's contest.
Record: 392-309-16 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.28%
MLB: Wednesday's 2:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta +1.5 -150 (Teheran vs. Fiers)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 54-30 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Milwaukee would be 26-60 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Julio Teheran has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his last three starts. He allowed one earned run over seven innings in his last turn and three starts ago he allowed just one hit over seven frames. On May 21 he gave up one run on two hits to the Brewers over seven innings. He has a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime starts against Milwaukee. Mike Fiers gave up two runs on seven hits in five innings in a loss to Atlanta on May 23. He has a 3.83 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season. The Braves hit 35 points higher and score nearly two more rpg vs. RH. They are hitting .337 and are scoring 6.65 rpg in their last five vs. RH. And A.J. Pierzynski has 10 hits in his last 13 ABs.
Record: 392-309-16 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.28%
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 54-30 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Milwaukee would be 26-60 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Julio Teheran has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his last three starts. He allowed one earned run over seven innings in his last turn and three starts ago he allowed just one hit over seven frames. On May 21 he gave up one run on two hits to the Brewers over seven innings. He has a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime starts against Milwaukee. Mike Fiers gave up two runs on seven hits in five innings in a loss to Atlanta on May 23. He has a 3.83 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season. The Braves hit 35 points higher and score nearly two more rpg vs. RH. They are hitting .337 and are scoring 6.65 rpg in their last five vs. RH. And A.J. Pierzynski has 10 hits in his last 13 ABs.
Record: 392-309-16 (55.9%)
Bankroll: +221.28%
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: Detroit/Seattle under 7.5 -105 (Ryan vs. Walker)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Taijuan Walker started out slowly, but he is on fire now and has won five straight. Over that stretch he has allowed just six runs. Walker has a 1.86 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP in his last three outings. He hasn't walked a batter in four straight and has a 2.79 ERA in six home starts. The Tigers score 0.36 fewer rpg vs. RH and they've never seen Walker. Games at Safeco Field average 6.90 runs. The Mariners have never faced Kyle Ryan and they are hitting .137 and are scoring 0.81 rpg in their last 10 vs. LH. They are hitting .119 and are scoring 0.69 rpg in their last five vs. LH. And the under is 54-20-3 in Kerwin Danley's last 77 games behind home plate.
Record: 392-308-16 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +231.22%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Taijuan Walker started out slowly, but he is on fire now and has won five straight. Over that stretch he has allowed just six runs. Walker has a 1.86 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP in his last three outings. He hasn't walked a batter in four straight and has a 2.79 ERA in six home starts. The Tigers score 0.36 fewer rpg vs. RH and they've never seen Walker. Games at Safeco Field average 6.90 runs. The Mariners have never faced Kyle Ryan and they are hitting .137 and are scoring 0.81 rpg in their last 10 vs. LH. They are hitting .119 and are scoring 0.69 rpg in their last five vs. LH. And the under is 54-20-3 in Kerwin Danley's last 77 games behind home plate.
Record: 392-308-16 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +231.22%
Monday, July 6, 2015
MLB: Monday's 8:10 p.m. ET plays
Play: Baltimore/Minnesota over 8 +110 (Chen vs. Hughes)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Phil Hughes has a 4.67 ERA in 22 career appearances (19 starts) against the Orioles. Twins relievers have a 3.88 ERA overall and a 4.31 ERA in their last 10 games. Minnesota scores 1.14 more rpg vs. LH. Games for both teams average 8.40 and 8.24 runs, respectively. And Twins home games average 8.45 runs.
Play: Tampa Bay +121 (Colome vs. Volquez)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven games. Mike Moustakas (personal), who is second on the team in batting (.301 BA), is questionable for this one. Edinson Volquez will start for Kansas City, and he has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over his last three starts. He gave up five runs in five innings to Houston in his last turn. Alex Colome will go for the Rays, and he has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his last three starts. He has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his last outings. Colome has a 3.62 ERA on the road and the Royals have never seen him. Kansas City is hitting .220 and is scoring just 3.24 rpg in its last five vs. RH.
Play: Atlanta +120 (Wisler vs. Lohse)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Milwaukee is 15-26 at home. The Braves are scoring 1.86 more rpg vs. RH. Here they will face Kyle Lohse, who has a 6.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Matt Wisler will toe the slab for the fourth time in his career. He has a 2.60 ERA and he allowed just one hit over 5.1 scoreless innings in his last start.
Record: 391-307-15 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +229.24%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Phil Hughes has a 4.67 ERA in 22 career appearances (19 starts) against the Orioles. Twins relievers have a 3.88 ERA overall and a 4.31 ERA in their last 10 games. Minnesota scores 1.14 more rpg vs. LH. Games for both teams average 8.40 and 8.24 runs, respectively. And Twins home games average 8.45 runs.
Play: Tampa Bay +121 (Colome vs. Volquez)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven games. Mike Moustakas (personal), who is second on the team in batting (.301 BA), is questionable for this one. Edinson Volquez will start for Kansas City, and he has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over his last three starts. He gave up five runs in five innings to Houston in his last turn. Alex Colome will go for the Rays, and he has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his last three starts. He has limited opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his last outings. Colome has a 3.62 ERA on the road and the Royals have never seen him. Kansas City is hitting .220 and is scoring just 3.24 rpg in its last five vs. RH.
Play: Atlanta +120 (Wisler vs. Lohse)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Milwaukee is 15-26 at home. The Braves are scoring 1.86 more rpg vs. RH. Here they will face Kyle Lohse, who has a 6.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Matt Wisler will toe the slab for the fourth time in his career. He has a 2.60 ERA and he allowed just one hit over 5.1 scoreless innings in his last start.
Record: 391-307-15 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +229.24%
Sunday, July 5, 2015
MLB: Sunday's 1:35 p.m. ET play
Play: Cleveland/Pittsburgh over 6.5 -105 (Salazar vs. Cole)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Danny Salazar has a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts. Gerrit Cole has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three starts. The Pirates score about a run more per game vs. RH and the Indians score nearly a half-run more per game vs. RH. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 5.28 ERA in its last five contests. And games umpired by Angel Hernandez average 8.13 runs.
Record: 389-306-15 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +217.96%
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Danny Salazar has a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts. Gerrit Cole has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three starts. The Pirates score about a run more per game vs. RH and the Indians score nearly a half-run more per game vs. RH. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 5.28 ERA in its last five contests. And games umpired by Angel Hernandez average 8.13 runs.
Record: 389-306-15 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +217.96%
MLB: Sunday's 1 p.m. ET plays
Play: Tampa Bay +123 (Ramirez vs. Nova)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Erasmo Ramirez lost his last start, but it was his first defeat since May 24. And in it he allowed just one run on two hits over 5.2 IP. On May 14 he allowed New York just one hit over five scoreless innings. Chase Headley is 0-for-10 lifetime against Ramirez, who has a 0.61 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP over his last three turns. Ivan Nova will make his third start of the season. In his last go-around with the Rays (04/19/14), he gave up eight runs on eight hits over four innings. The Yankees are hitting .215 in their last 10 games vs. RH.
Play: Toronto/Detroit under 9 -108 (Estrada vs. Verlander)
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: It was announced that Miguel Cabrera (calf) could miss six weeks. The Blue Jays hit 52 points lower and are scoring 0.68 fewer rpg vs. RH. The Tigers score 0.25 fewer rpg vs. RH. Toronto's bullpen has a 2.41 ERA over its last 10. Marco Estrada, who nearly pitched a perfect game two starts ago, has a 1.50 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over his last three outings. Justin Verlander allowed two earned runs over six innings in his last start. The unders are 5-2 in umpire Jordan Baker's last seven games behind home plate. His games also average 7.36 runs.
Record: 389-306-15 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +217.96%
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Erasmo Ramirez lost his last start, but it was his first defeat since May 24. And in it he allowed just one run on two hits over 5.2 IP. On May 14 he allowed New York just one hit over five scoreless innings. Chase Headley is 0-for-10 lifetime against Ramirez, who has a 0.61 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP over his last three turns. Ivan Nova will make his third start of the season. In his last go-around with the Rays (04/19/14), he gave up eight runs on eight hits over four innings. The Yankees are hitting .215 in their last 10 games vs. RH.
Play: Toronto/Detroit under 9 -108 (Estrada vs. Verlander)
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: It was announced that Miguel Cabrera (calf) could miss six weeks. The Blue Jays hit 52 points lower and are scoring 0.68 fewer rpg vs. RH. The Tigers score 0.25 fewer rpg vs. RH. Toronto's bullpen has a 2.41 ERA over its last 10. Marco Estrada, who nearly pitched a perfect game two starts ago, has a 1.50 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over his last three outings. Justin Verlander allowed two earned runs over six innings in his last start. The unders are 5-2 in umpire Jordan Baker's last seven games behind home plate. His games also average 7.36 runs.
Record: 389-306-15 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +217.96%
Saturday, July 4, 2015
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Toronto/Detroit under 8 +100 (Dickey vs. Price)
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Miguel Cabrera, who is hitting .350 and is leading the Tigers in RBIs (54), is out for this one and is expected to be placed on the DL after suffering a strained calf on Friday. The Blue Jays, who were no-hit for seven innings on Friday, will now have to face David Price, who is 15-2 lifetime against them. Price has a 2.62 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. R.A. Dickey, who is 6-2 lifetime against Detroit, has a 3.10 ERA in his last three turns. He has permitted three earned runs or fewer in each of his last six games. Toronto's bullpen has a 2.25 ERA over its last 10. And the under is 3-0-1 in umpire Andy Fletcher's last four behind the plate.
Record: 389-305-15 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +227.79%
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Miguel Cabrera, who is hitting .350 and is leading the Tigers in RBIs (54), is out for this one and is expected to be placed on the DL after suffering a strained calf on Friday. The Blue Jays, who were no-hit for seven innings on Friday, will now have to face David Price, who is 15-2 lifetime against them. Price has a 2.62 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. R.A. Dickey, who is 6-2 lifetime against Detroit, has a 3.10 ERA in his last three turns. He has permitted three earned runs or fewer in each of his last six games. Toronto's bullpen has a 2.25 ERA over its last 10. And the under is 3-0-1 in umpire Andy Fletcher's last four behind the plate.
Record: 389-305-15 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +227.79%
Friday, July 3, 2015
MLB: Friday's play
Play: Toronto/Detroit under 8.5 -105 (Hutchison vs. Sanchez)
Time: 7:08 p.m.
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Drew Hutchison is 5-0 in his last seven starts. He has a 1.65 ERA over his last three turns and in his last one he allowed one unearned run to Texas over 5.2 innings. He pitched seven shutout innings in his only career matchup vs. Detroit. Anibal Sanchez has a 2.74 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in his last three starts. The Blue Jays hit 51 points lower and score about one run fewer per game vs. RH. The Tigers score a third of a run fewer per game vs. RH. Toronto's bullpen has a 2.45 ERA over its last 10 games.
Record: 389-304-15 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +237.93%
Time: 7:08 p.m.
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: Drew Hutchison is 5-0 in his last seven starts. He has a 1.65 ERA over his last three turns and in his last one he allowed one unearned run to Texas over 5.2 innings. He pitched seven shutout innings in his only career matchup vs. Detroit. Anibal Sanchez has a 2.74 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in his last three starts. The Blue Jays hit 51 points lower and score about one run fewer per game vs. RH. The Tigers score a third of a run fewer per game vs. RH. Toronto's bullpen has a 2.45 ERA over its last 10 games.
Record: 389-304-15 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +237.93%
Thursday, July 2, 2015
MLB: Thursday's 6:35 p.m. ET play
Play: Milwaukee/Philadelphia under 8 +100 (Garza vs. Billingsley)
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like Matt Garza to get off the schneid and do his part Thursday when he takes on the Phillies. He has a 1.86 ERA in seven lifetime starts against them. Chad Billingsley will go for Philadelphia and he allowed Arizona two runs over six innings in his last turn. Games at Citizens Bank Park have averaged 8.07 runs. Brewers road games have averaged 7.64 runs. Milwaukee relievers have a 1.91 ERA in their last 10 contests and Phillies relievers have a 2.60 ERA in their last five.
Record: 388-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +246.24%
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like Matt Garza to get off the schneid and do his part Thursday when he takes on the Phillies. He has a 1.86 ERA in seven lifetime starts against them. Chad Billingsley will go for Philadelphia and he allowed Arizona two runs over six innings in his last turn. Games at Citizens Bank Park have averaged 8.07 runs. Brewers road games have averaged 7.64 runs. Milwaukee relievers have a 1.91 ERA in their last 10 contests and Phillies relievers have a 2.60 ERA in their last five.
Record: 388-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +246.24%
MLB: Thursday's 1:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Chi. Cubs/N.Y. Mets over 6.5 +120 (Arrieta vs. deGrom)
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at Citi Field have averaged 7.36 runs. Chicago road games average 8.71 runs. Jacob deGrom has pitched twice against the Cubs, most recently on May 11. He allowed them four runs on five hits over five innings in each outing. And the over is 37-18-8 in umpire Laz Diaz's last 63 games behind home plate.
Record: 388-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +246.24%
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at Citi Field have averaged 7.36 runs. Chicago road games average 8.71 runs. Jacob deGrom has pitched twice against the Cubs, most recently on May 11. He allowed them four runs on five hits over five innings in each outing. And the over is 37-18-8 in umpire Laz Diaz's last 63 games behind home plate.
Record: 388-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +246.24%
MLB: Thursday's 12:10 p.m. ET play
Play: San Francisco +142 (Cain vs. Fernandez)
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: I see a lot of value in the Giants at this price and didn't see it when taking them with the run and the hook (-170). Here you have two pitchers making their 2015 debuts after coming off surgeries. San Francisco is scoring 0.61 more rpg vs. RH. Miami is scoring 0.54 fewer rpg vs. RH. The Giants are hitting .284 and are scoring 6.24 rpg in their last 10 against RH. The Marlins are hitting .217 and are averaging 3.02 rpg in their last 10 against RH. Matt Cain is 6-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 14 career starts opposing the Marlins. The top three hitters in Maimi's lineup (Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich and Adeiny Hechavarria) are a combined 2-for-22 lifetime against Cain. That and Giancarlo Stanton (wrist) is now on the 15-day DL. Buster Posey, who left Wednesday's game after a foul ball off his mask, appears OK. He is 12-for-26 over his last seven contests. And Matt Duffy has multiple hits in four of his last six games.
Record: 388-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +246.24%
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: I see a lot of value in the Giants at this price and didn't see it when taking them with the run and the hook (-170). Here you have two pitchers making their 2015 debuts after coming off surgeries. San Francisco is scoring 0.61 more rpg vs. RH. Miami is scoring 0.54 fewer rpg vs. RH. The Giants are hitting .284 and are scoring 6.24 rpg in their last 10 against RH. The Marlins are hitting .217 and are averaging 3.02 rpg in their last 10 against RH. Matt Cain is 6-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 14 career starts opposing the Marlins. The top three hitters in Maimi's lineup (Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich and Adeiny Hechavarria) are a combined 2-for-22 lifetime against Cain. That and Giancarlo Stanton (wrist) is now on the 15-day DL. Buster Posey, who left Wednesday's game after a foul ball off his mask, appears OK. He is 12-for-26 over his last seven contests. And Matt Duffy has multiple hits in four of his last six games.
Record: 388-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +246.24%
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: Minnesota +1.5 -140 (May vs. Cueto)
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 50-27 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Cincinnati would be 25-51 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Reds, who have lost four of their last five, are tied with San Diego for the second-worst interleague record (4-9) in baseball. Cincinnati is 125-163 all-time in interleague play. This season the AL is 90-73 vs. the NL. On Tuesday Minnesota prevailed 8-5 when it pounded out 15 hits. The Twins will send out Trevor May in this one, and he has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Plus, the Reds have never seen him. Cincinnati is scoring 0.70 fewer rpg vs. RH. Minnesota is hitting 34 points higher in its last 10 vs. RH, and it has averaged 6.23 rpg in its last five vs. RH.
Record: 387-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +238.98%
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 50-27 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Cincinnati would be 25-51 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Reds, who have lost four of their last five, are tied with San Diego for the second-worst interleague record (4-9) in baseball. Cincinnati is 125-163 all-time in interleague play. This season the AL is 90-73 vs. the NL. On Tuesday Minnesota prevailed 8-5 when it pounded out 15 hits. The Twins will send out Trevor May in this one, and he has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Plus, the Reds have never seen him. Cincinnati is scoring 0.70 fewer rpg vs. RH. Minnesota is hitting 34 points higher in its last 10 vs. RH, and it has averaged 6.23 rpg in its last five vs. RH.
Record: 387-302-15 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +238.98%
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