NFL: Sunday's plays

Plays: Atlanta -2.5 -105 and Minnesota/Atlanta over 45 -105

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing, but he gained just 45 last week and will now face a Falcons defense that is No. 1 in the league (87.4 ypg). Minnesota, which allowed 30 points in last week's loss to Green Bay, will see an Atlanta offense that is ranked fourth in the NFL and a Falcons team that is averaging 28.0 ppg at home. The Vikings also will be without their leading tackler, safety Harrison Smith (knee). The last three Atlanta losses were by a combined seven points. The Falcons' problems stem from turnovers, but Minnesota is tied for 26th in the league in takeaways (11).

Record: 428-347-20 (55.2%)
Bankroll: +145.49%


 

NCAAF: Saturday's plays

Play: Mississippi -1 -105

Time: 7:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

Reasoning: A win in Starkville and an upset of Alabama by Auburn will put the Rebels in the SEC Championship game for the first time. Ole Miss hasn't won at Mississippi State since 2003, the year Eli Manning was a senior. But I like their chances to break that losing skid with junior college transfer Chad Kelly at quarterback. In last week's 38-17 blowout of LSU, Kelly broke Manning's school record for total TDs in a season. Kelly leads the SEC in passing yards (3,504), total offense (3,857 yards) and total TDs (34). Kelly's favorite target, junior Laquon Treadwell, leads the conference in receiving yards (96.4) and he ranks second in school history in receptions (192). Treadwell likely will be the first WR taken in next year's NFL draft. As a team Ole Miss leads the SEC in scoring (40.5). On defense the Rebels broke up 10 passes, forced two fumbles and made two INTs against LSU. The Bulldogs have allowed 81 points in their last two games. Two weeks ago they lost 31-6 at home to Alabama. Ole Miss beat Alabama 43-37 on the road on Sept. 19. The Rebels are 3-2 this season against Top 30 teams and Mississippi State is 1-3 against Top 30 teams. Ole Miss beat the Bulldogs 31-17 in last year's Egg Bowl.



Play: Florida State/Florida over 43 -110

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Reasoning: The Gators' defense is the biggest reason why Florida is 10-1, but on Saturday it will likely be without ends Alex McCalister (ankle) and Jordan Sherit (hamstring) and tackle Jonathan Bullard (knee). That could bode well for Seminoles QB Sean Maguire, who has completed 65 percent of his passes over his last four games. Maguire has three interchangeable targets in Travis Rudolph (51 catches), Kermit Whitfield (51 catches) and Jesus Wilson (45 catches). Florida State also has sophomore tailback Dalvin Cook, who has recorded 17 TDs and a school-record 1,475 yards. The Seminoles have a suspect run defense (143.1) and they gave up 261 rushing yards to Georgia Tech a month ago. The Gators have averaged 31.2 points at home. This is the lowest total Florida State has gone against this season and it's the second-lowest total Florida has seen this season.



Record: 427-346-20 (55.2%)
Bankroll: +145.84%

NBA: Friday's play

Play: Oklahoma City -6.5 -105

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Kevin Durant (hamstring) won't be available for this one but the Thunder should be OK with Russell Westbrook shouldering the scoring load. Westbrook, who had 40 points in his last game against New York, has averaged 32.8 points and 9.5 assists in the last four games without Durant. And Westbrook poured in 43 points in Wednesday's 110-103 victory over New Orleans. Reserve center Enes Kanter had 24 points and 14 boards against the Pelicans. The Knicks are 6-6 and Oklahoma City is just 7-5, but statistically the Thunder dominates New York. OKC easily eclipses the Knicks in all shooting categories and the Thunder outrebounds opponents by 8.5 per game. OKC also records more steals and blocks. 

Record: 427-345-20 (55.3%)
Bankroll: +153.44%

NFL: Sunday's play

Play: Philadelphia -3 -125

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC

Reasoning: Dallas has lost five straight overall and four straight at home. The Eagles are coming off of a bye and have won four of the last five meetings at Dallas. Ryan Matthews and DeMarco Murray have combined for 555 rushing yards over the last three games. The Cowboys got only 64 rushing yards from Darren McFadden last week and they just released Joseph Randle. Dallas also received just 12 receiving yards from Dez Bryant last week in his first game since suffering a broken bone in his foot.

Record: 426-345-20 (55.3%)
Bankroll: +147.50%

NBA: Monday's play

Play: New York +7.5 -110

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Knicks are supposed to stink, right? They started 5-36 last season en route to a 17-65 record. But here they are at 2-1. And on Monday they will face an old San Antonio team playing the second game of a back-to-back. New York, led by a ragtag group last season, defeated the Spurs 104-100 in their last trip to the Garden (03/17/15), and the Knicks have won four of the last six meetings. They are averaging 113.3 ppg. They are playing above average on defense, are making more threes than San Antonio, are averaging 24.7 made FTs per game and they are monsters on the offensive glass (14.7 rpg). New York's bench also is scoring nearly 20 points more per game than the NBA average.

Record: 426-344-20 (55.3%)
Bankroll: +155.15%