Play: N.Y. Yankees/Toronto over 8.5 -110 (McCarthy vs. Happ)
Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Brandon McCarthy looked a lot more McCarthy-like in his last start when he allowed five runs in 6.1 IP. He has a 4.13 ERA on the year (including his numbers while in Arizona), and Melky Cabrera is 4-for-9 lifetime with two homers against him. McCarthy will also have to watch out for Jose Bautista, who has homered in four straight games. The Yankees shouldn't complain too much with J.A. Happ on the hill for the Blue Jays. Happ has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 2014 and he has a 6.46 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in his last three turns. Happ hasn't won since July 22 and he has allowed seven homers during that six-game winless streak. I expect Mark Teixeira, who is in a 3-for-29 slump, to bust out against the left-hander.
Happ has a 5.22 ERA in day games and McCarthy's road ERA with the Yankees is 4.26 (his home ERA is 2.91). New York scores about a run more per game vs. LH and Toronto scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. Add to this two bullpens that stink (3.85 ERA and 4.24 ERA, respectively) and an umpire (Chad Fairchild) whose games average 8.62 runs... You have the recipe for an over.
Record: 182-127-7 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +169.28%
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Saturday, August 30, 2014
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Seattle +101 (action vs. Elias)
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Stephen Strasburg is a solid pitcher, but he was shelled in his last outing (4 IP, 5 ER). On the road this season he is just 2-8 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Roenis Elias will go for the Mariners and he has a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. He has allowed a total of seven runs in his last six apperances. Seattle's bullpen is about a half-run better overall than that of Washington. Nationals relievers had a 5.01 ERA in their last 10 games compared to the 2.45 mark that the Mariners have put up.
Record: 182-126-7 (59.1%)
Bankroll: +177.61%
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Stephen Strasburg is a solid pitcher, but he was shelled in his last outing (4 IP, 5 ER). On the road this season he is just 2-8 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Roenis Elias will go for the Mariners and he has a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. He has allowed a total of seven runs in his last six apperances. Seattle's bullpen is about a half-run better overall than that of Washington. Nationals relievers had a 5.01 ERA in their last 10 games compared to the 2.45 mark that the Mariners have put up.
Record: 182-126-7 (59.1%)
Bankroll: +177.61%
Friday, August 29, 2014
MLB: Friday's plays
Play: Texas/Houston over 8.5 +100 (Baker vs. Olberholtzer)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Scott Baker wouldn't be starting if the Rangers had their druthers. He's been a gas can (5.45 ERA overall, 5.93 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts). In Baker's last three relief appearances against the Astros he allowed four runs in 5.1 IP. Brett Olberholtzer yielded 10 hits in his last outing and Texas scores 1.1 more runs per game vs. southpaws. Houston scores 0.62 more rpg vs. RH. Rangers relievers have a 4.05 ERA, but that's nothing compared to the Astros bullpen. Houston relievers have a 4.93 ERA overall and a 7.36 mark in their last five contests. Watch for Texas CF Leonys Martin. He is 7-for-13 in his last three games.
Play: St. Louis -146 (action vs. Miller)
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago is hitting .227 and is scoring nearly a run less per game vs. RH. It is 27-41 away from the Friendly Confines. The Cardinals are 39-26 at Busch Stadium, they hit 46 points higher at home vs. RH and they are hitting .295 and are scoring 5.21 runs per game in their last 10 against RH. St. Louis also expects to activate six-time Gold Glove C Yadier Molina from the DL before Friday's tilt. Kyle Hendricks has been lights-out, but his lone loss of the season came when he allowed the Cardinals seven hits on July 27. Shelby Miller has been struggling but I like him to get his groove back against a Cubs team that he has a 1.59 ERA against in three lifetime appearances (two starts). How valuable is Molina? In the 40 games that he has missed St. Louis has allowed more stolen bases (25) than Molina allowed (22) in his 83 games behind the dish.
Record: 181-125-7 (59.2%)
Bankroll: +177.61%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Scott Baker wouldn't be starting if the Rangers had their druthers. He's been a gas can (5.45 ERA overall, 5.93 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts). In Baker's last three relief appearances against the Astros he allowed four runs in 5.1 IP. Brett Olberholtzer yielded 10 hits in his last outing and Texas scores 1.1 more runs per game vs. southpaws. Houston scores 0.62 more rpg vs. RH. Rangers relievers have a 4.05 ERA, but that's nothing compared to the Astros bullpen. Houston relievers have a 4.93 ERA overall and a 7.36 mark in their last five contests. Watch for Texas CF Leonys Martin. He is 7-for-13 in his last three games.
Play: St. Louis -146 (action vs. Miller)
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago is hitting .227 and is scoring nearly a run less per game vs. RH. It is 27-41 away from the Friendly Confines. The Cardinals are 39-26 at Busch Stadium, they hit 46 points higher at home vs. RH and they are hitting .295 and are scoring 5.21 runs per game in their last 10 against RH. St. Louis also expects to activate six-time Gold Glove C Yadier Molina from the DL before Friday's tilt. Kyle Hendricks has been lights-out, but his lone loss of the season came when he allowed the Cardinals seven hits on July 27. Shelby Miller has been struggling but I like him to get his groove back against a Cubs team that he has a 1.59 ERA against in three lifetime appearances (two starts). How valuable is Molina? In the 40 games that he has missed St. Louis has allowed more stolen bases (25) than Molina allowed (22) in his 83 games behind the dish.
Record: 181-125-7 (59.2%)
Bankroll: +177.61%
Thursday, August 28, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Subscribers have been credited another day. Good luck if you found something.
Record: 181-125-7 (59.2%)
Bankroll: +177.61%
Record: 181-125-7 (59.2%)
Bankroll: +177.61%
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: Atlanta -132 (Teheran vs. Wheeler)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Yes, the Mets rocked Julio Teheran on July 8. But he has usually been lights-out this season (2.96 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and in his three other career starts against New York he has a 1.50 ERA. Teheran has won two straight and has lasted at least six innings in four straight road appearances. Zack Wheeler was roughed up a bit in his last start, and in three outings against the Braves this season he has surrendered eight runs on eighteen hits and has walked eight in 17.2 IP. The Mets could be without David Wright (shoulder) and Daniel Murphy (calf) for this one. Justin Upton is hitting .316 since the start of July and has 24 RBIs in his last 20 games, including 12 in his last seven contests. Atlanta has the better bullpen and its relievers have a 0.75 ERA in their last five games and a 0.78 ERA in their last 10 games.
Record: 180-125-7 (59.0%)
Bankroll: +171.44%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Yes, the Mets rocked Julio Teheran on July 8. But he has usually been lights-out this season (2.96 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and in his three other career starts against New York he has a 1.50 ERA. Teheran has won two straight and has lasted at least six innings in four straight road appearances. Zack Wheeler was roughed up a bit in his last start, and in three outings against the Braves this season he has surrendered eight runs on eighteen hits and has walked eight in 17.2 IP. The Mets could be without David Wright (shoulder) and Daniel Murphy (calf) for this one. Justin Upton is hitting .316 since the start of July and has 24 RBIs in his last 20 games, including 12 in his last seven contests. Atlanta has the better bullpen and its relievers have a 0.75 ERA in their last five games and a 0.78 ERA in their last 10 games.
Record: 180-125-7 (59.0%)
Bankroll: +171.44%
Monday, August 25, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 180-125-7 (59.0%)
Bankroll: +171.44%
Record: 180-125-7 (59.0%)
Bankroll: +171.44%
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Texas +1.5 -125 (Mikolas vs. Elias)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 69-60 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Mariners would be 57-72 if they gave 1.5 rpg. When handicapping this one I felt as though I was handicapping a horse race while looking at the past performances in the Daily Racing Form. Yes, Miles Mikolas has horrible numbers on the season. But he's been good and even great in three of his last four starts and in four of his last six starts. Add to that the fact that Seattle has never seen him. Conversely, Roenis Elias has a 2.35 ERA in his last three appearances, but he also has a 1.37 WHIP over that same time period. Additionally, Elias has had his share of clunkers in 2014 and is probably overdue for another one. And Texas absolutely destroys LH. It scores 4.94 rpg vs. southpaws, which is 1.31 more rpg than it scores vs. RH. Runs also are still hard to come by at Safeco Field and the Mariners score just 3.64 rpg there.
Record: 179-125-7 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +165.08%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 69-60 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Mariners would be 57-72 if they gave 1.5 rpg. When handicapping this one I felt as though I was handicapping a horse race while looking at the past performances in the Daily Racing Form. Yes, Miles Mikolas has horrible numbers on the season. But he's been good and even great in three of his last four starts and in four of his last six starts. Add to that the fact that Seattle has never seen him. Conversely, Roenis Elias has a 2.35 ERA in his last three appearances, but he also has a 1.37 WHIP over that same time period. Additionally, Elias has had his share of clunkers in 2014 and is probably overdue for another one. And Texas absolutely destroys LH. It scores 4.94 rpg vs. southpaws, which is 1.31 more rpg than it scores vs. RH. Runs also are still hard to come by at Safeco Field and the Mariners score just 3.64 rpg there.
Record: 179-125-7 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +165.08%
Sunday, August 24, 2014
No plays for Sunday
Subscribers have been credited a day...
Record: 179-125-7 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +165.08%
Record: 179-125-7 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +165.08%
Saturday, August 23, 2014
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Tampa Bay/Toronto over 8.5 -113 (Hellickson vs. Buehrle)
Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jeremy Hellickson is having a hell of a season, but he can be hit-and-miss with his starts. The Blue Jays score a half-run more per game vs. RH. They also are hitting .289 and are averaging 5.33 rpg vs. RH at home. The Rays score 0.34 more rpg vs. LH. Today they will face Mark Buehrle, who has a 1.41 WHIP this season and a 2.29 WHIP and a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts. Toronto's games average 8.88 runs and that figure jumps to 9.15 runs at Rogers Centre. Tampa Bay's relievers have a 5.17 ERA in their last five contests. Jays relievers have a 4.22 ERA on the season. Both teams feature hot hitters: (Evan Longoria: 10-fot 33 lifetime vs. Buehrle; Desmond Jennings: 8-for-19 vs. Buehrle; Jose Reyes: .397 BA over his last 15 tilts). And games called by umpire John Tumpane have averaged 8.96 runs.
Record: 178-125-7 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +158.22%
Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jeremy Hellickson is having a hell of a season, but he can be hit-and-miss with his starts. The Blue Jays score a half-run more per game vs. RH. They also are hitting .289 and are averaging 5.33 rpg vs. RH at home. The Rays score 0.34 more rpg vs. LH. Today they will face Mark Buehrle, who has a 1.41 WHIP this season and a 2.29 WHIP and a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts. Toronto's games average 8.88 runs and that figure jumps to 9.15 runs at Rogers Centre. Tampa Bay's relievers have a 5.17 ERA in their last five contests. Jays relievers have a 4.22 ERA on the season. Both teams feature hot hitters: (Evan Longoria: 10-fot 33 lifetime vs. Buehrle; Desmond Jennings: 8-for-19 vs. Buehrle; Jose Reyes: .397 BA over his last 15 tilts). And games called by umpire John Tumpane have averaged 8.96 runs.
Record: 178-125-7 (58.7%)
Bankroll: +158.22%
Friday, August 22, 2014
MLB: Friday's play
Play: San Francisco +138 (Hudson vs. action)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be a hell of a game, but I think it's high-time that Washington ends up on the losing end. Of the Nationals' 10 straight victories, seven have been by one run and they've won in walk-off fashion in five of their last six. On Friday they will face Tim Hudson, who has owned them over the last two years and, really, over his entire career. Hudson is 17-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 30 career starts against Washington. His teams are 4-0 against the Nats in his last four starts and he has a 0.64 ERA in those contests. Washington hits 25 points lower against RH, and the Giants haven't committed an error in nine consecutive games. San Francisco has the better bullpen, and its relievers have combined for a 0.53 ERA in the last five tilts. Nationals relievers have a 4.15 ERA in their last five games.
Record: 177-125-7 (58.6%)
Bankroll: +147.95%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be a hell of a game, but I think it's high-time that Washington ends up on the losing end. Of the Nationals' 10 straight victories, seven have been by one run and they've won in walk-off fashion in five of their last six. On Friday they will face Tim Hudson, who has owned them over the last two years and, really, over his entire career. Hudson is 17-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 30 career starts against Washington. His teams are 4-0 against the Nats in his last four starts and he has a 0.64 ERA in those contests. Washington hits 25 points lower against RH, and the Giants haven't committed an error in nine consecutive games. San Francisco has the better bullpen, and its relievers have combined for a 0.53 ERA in the last five tilts. Nationals relievers have a 4.15 ERA in their last five games.
Record: 177-125-7 (58.6%)
Bankroll: +147.95%
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Couldn't find anything worthy of a 3% bankroll play. Good luck if you did.
I have credited your subscriptions an extra day.
Record: 177-125-7 (58.6%)
Bankroll: +147.95%
I have credited your subscriptions an extra day.
Record: 177-125-7 (58.6%)
Bankroll: +147.95%
MLB: Wednesday's KC/Col
Play: Colorado +1.5 -150 (Duffy vs. De La Rosa)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 68-57 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Royals would be 53-72 if they gave 1.5 rpg. I really like this horse (Jorge De La Rosa) for this course (Coors Field). The Mexican southpaw has won five straight at home, has a 3.30 ERA in Colorado this season and is 43-14 all-time in that ballpark. De La Rosa also has a streak of 10 straight outings where he has lasted six or more innings, and he has a 0.97 WHIP in his last three turns. Danny Duffy, in his only appearance at Coors Field, allowed five runs on nine hits (2 HRs) in five innings of work. And Colorado just destroys LH (4.83 rpg overall and a .349 BA in the last 10 games). Kansas City's bullpen has a 6.75 ERA over its last five contests.
Record: 175-124-7 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +144.38%
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 68-57 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Royals would be 53-72 if they gave 1.5 rpg. I really like this horse (Jorge De La Rosa) for this course (Coors Field). The Mexican southpaw has won five straight at home, has a 3.30 ERA in Colorado this season and is 43-14 all-time in that ballpark. De La Rosa also has a streak of 10 straight outings where he has lasted six or more innings, and he has a 0.97 WHIP in his last three turns. Danny Duffy, in his only appearance at Coors Field, allowed five runs on nine hits (2 HRs) in five innings of work. And Colorado just destroys LH (4.83 rpg overall and a .349 BA in the last 10 games). Kansas City's bullpen has a 6.75 ERA over its last five contests.
Record: 175-124-7 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +144.38%
MLB: Wednesday's 7 p.m. ET games
Play: Pittsburgh -122 (action vs. Cole)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Has Gerrit Cole recovered from his lat strain? Well, he threw 92 pitches and went seven scoreless innings in his final rehab start Friday for Triple-A Indianapolis. Prior to his injury Cole tossed five scoreless frames against Philadelphia. And Atlanta has never seen him and it is hitting .238 and is scoring 1.06 less runs per game vs. RH. The Pirates, who are 39-26 at home, are getting production from OF Travis Snyder, who is 16-for-38 during his 10-game hitting streak. At home Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 3.19 ERA. Braves relievers have a road ERA of 4.00.
Play: Boston +125 (action vs. Buchholz)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Clay Buchholz is 6-3 in 11 career starts against Los Angeles and he allowed just three runs and struck out eight over eight innings in his last outing against the Angels (Aug. 9). In his last turn (vs. Houston) Buchholz struck out nine and gave up two runs over seven innings. Garrett Richards has struggled against Boston's Mike Napoli (4-for-7, homer) and Yoenis Cespedes (6-for-19, three doubles). Richards also will have to face the majors' RBI leader David Ortiz, who is 10-for-22 with three homers and eight RBIs in his last six games. Los Angeles hits 22 points lower and score a half-run less per game vs. RH. The Red Sox also have the better bullpen with their relievers posting a 1.62 ERA in their last 10 games. Angels relievers have a 4.40 ERA in their last five games and they have a 4.01 ERA on the road.
Record: 175-124-7 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +144.38%
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Good luck if you found something to bet on.
Record: 175-124-7 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +144.38%
Good luck if you found something to bet on.
Record: 175-124-7 (58.5%)
Bankroll: +144.38%
Monday, August 18, 2014
MLB: Monday's Atl/Pit
Play: Atlanta +108 (Santana vs. action)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves have won four of their last five and they have 12 homers in their last 10 games. The Pirates have lost five straight. Ervin Santana is 7-1 in his last nine starts and he has a 2.70 ERA in his last six. Plus, Pittsburgh has never seen him. Vance Worley allowed five runs in 5.1 IP in his last outing and he is 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in seven games (five starts) against Atlanta. The Braves have the better bullpen overall (3.20 ERA vs. 3.59 ERA). In the last 10 games Atlanta relievers have a 2.22 ERA. In their last five contests that figure drops to 1.15. Meanwhile Pittsburgh's relief corps has a 4.60 ERA in its last 10 tries and a 6.06 ERA in its last five.
Record: 174-124-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +136.71%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves have won four of their last five and they have 12 homers in their last 10 games. The Pirates have lost five straight. Ervin Santana is 7-1 in his last nine starts and he has a 2.70 ERA in his last six. Plus, Pittsburgh has never seen him. Vance Worley allowed five runs in 5.1 IP in his last outing and he is 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in seven games (five starts) against Atlanta. The Braves have the better bullpen overall (3.20 ERA vs. 3.59 ERA). In the last 10 games Atlanta relievers have a 2.22 ERA. In their last five contests that figure drops to 1.15. Meanwhile Pittsburgh's relief corps has a 4.60 ERA in its last 10 tries and a 6.06 ERA in its last five.
Record: 174-124-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +136.71%
Sunday, August 17, 2014
MLB: Sunday's play
Play: N.Y. Yankees/Tampa Bay over 7 -109 (Kuroda vs. Hellickson)
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games involving these teams average between 7.76 and 8.67 runs both in the overall categories and in the home/away splits. Games at Tropicana Field have averaged 7.90 runs. Both squads have shaky bullpens (NYY: 3.91 ERA, TB: 3.48 ERA). New York's relievers have a 6.21 ERA in their last 10 games and an 8.36 ERA in their last five. Tampa Bay has averaged 4.82 runs in their last 10 contests vs. RH. My picks to click offensively include Derek Jeter (3-for-8 in the series), Mark Teixeira (4-for-8 in the series, 6-for-16 lifetime vs. Jeremy Hellickson), Evan Longoria (six-game hitting streak, 9-for-21 lifetime vs. Hiroki Kuroda), Matt Joyce (7-for-20 lifetime against Kuroda) and Ben Zobrist (RBI in five of his last six games). To top it off, games for umpire Mark Ripperger have averaged 7.80, 9.33, 9.33, 8.75 and 8.00 runs over the last five seasons.
Record: 174-123-7 (58.6%)
Bankroll: +144.03%
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games involving these teams average between 7.76 and 8.67 runs both in the overall categories and in the home/away splits. Games at Tropicana Field have averaged 7.90 runs. Both squads have shaky bullpens (NYY: 3.91 ERA, TB: 3.48 ERA). New York's relievers have a 6.21 ERA in their last 10 games and an 8.36 ERA in their last five. Tampa Bay has averaged 4.82 runs in their last 10 contests vs. RH. My picks to click offensively include Derek Jeter (3-for-8 in the series), Mark Teixeira (4-for-8 in the series, 6-for-16 lifetime vs. Jeremy Hellickson), Evan Longoria (six-game hitting streak, 9-for-21 lifetime vs. Hiroki Kuroda), Matt Joyce (7-for-20 lifetime against Kuroda) and Ben Zobrist (RBI in five of his last six games). To top it off, games for umpire Mark Ripperger have averaged 7.80, 9.33, 9.33, 8.75 and 8.00 runs over the last five seasons.
Record: 174-123-7 (58.6%)
Bankroll: +144.03%
Saturday, August 16, 2014
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: N.Y. Yankees +130 (Greene vs. action)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I really like Yankees starter Shane Greene. He has made six major-league starts and has allowed three or fewer runs in five of those outings. The 25-year-old Florida native has a 2.89 ERA and opponents are hitting .227 against him. In his last turn he tossed eight scoreless innings against Detroit. Plus, the Rays have never seen him. On the other hand, Drew Smyly has a 3.73 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He has a 1.44 WHIP in his last three starts. How will he respond after throwing 116 pitches in 7.2 IP (both career highs) against Texas in his last turn? New York hits 17 points higher and scores 0.76 more runs per game against LH. Tampa Bay hits 12 points lower and scores 0.40 fewer rpg vs. RH.
Record: 173-123-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +134.86%
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I really like Yankees starter Shane Greene. He has made six major-league starts and has allowed three or fewer runs in five of those outings. The 25-year-old Florida native has a 2.89 ERA and opponents are hitting .227 against him. In his last turn he tossed eight scoreless innings against Detroit. Plus, the Rays have never seen him. On the other hand, Drew Smyly has a 3.73 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He has a 1.44 WHIP in his last three starts. How will he respond after throwing 116 pitches in 7.2 IP (both career highs) against Texas in his last turn? New York hits 17 points higher and scores 0.76 more runs per game against LH. Tampa Bay hits 12 points lower and scores 0.40 fewer rpg vs. RH.
Record: 173-123-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +134.86%
Friday, August 15, 2014
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 173-123-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +134.86%
Record: 173-123-7 (58.4%)
Bankroll: +134.86%
Thursday, August 14, 2014
MLB: Thursday's play
Play: Milwaukee/Chi. Cubs over 7 -120 (Fiers vs. Jackson)
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Before I get into anything else, know this: games called by umpire Tim Timmons usually involve a lot of runs. Looking at his last 15 seasons (as far back as my records go back)/ His runs per game have eclipsed 10.15 in four seasons, have eclipsed 9.06 in five different seasons and 8.16 in five different seasons. In his outlier year he allowed 7.55 runs. That's amazing consistency. Add to this an extremely inconsistent Edwin Jackson (5.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and another pitcher (Mike Fiers) making just his second start since Sept. 8, 2012. Not to mention average to below-average bullpens...and it being a day game... I like the over. But, this is Wrigley Field, where they don't set totals until gameday because of the wind factor. As of 12:10 p.m. ET the wind is blowing in from left at 7 mph. In those scenarios this season (eight games with a North wind) the overs are 5-3 and the rpg is 7.24.
Record: 172-123-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +129.13%
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Before I get into anything else, know this: games called by umpire Tim Timmons usually involve a lot of runs. Looking at his last 15 seasons (as far back as my records go back)/ His runs per game have eclipsed 10.15 in four seasons, have eclipsed 9.06 in five different seasons and 8.16 in five different seasons. In his outlier year he allowed 7.55 runs. That's amazing consistency. Add to this an extremely inconsistent Edwin Jackson (5.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and another pitcher (Mike Fiers) making just his second start since Sept. 8, 2012. Not to mention average to below-average bullpens...and it being a day game... I like the over. But, this is Wrigley Field, where they don't set totals until gameday because of the wind factor. As of 12:10 p.m. ET the wind is blowing in from left at 7 mph. In those scenarios this season (eight games with a North wind) the overs are 5-3 and the rpg is 7.24.
Record: 172-123-7 (58.3%)
Bankroll: +129.13%
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's Phi/LAA
Play: Philadelphia +1.5 -110 (Burnett vs. Weaver)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 71-49 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Angels would be 50-68 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Los Angeles hits 23 points lower and scores a half-run less per game vs. RH. It also is hitting .204 against RH over the last 10 games. Over last five games the Angels have averaged just 2.55 runs. And Jered Weaver has a 6.35 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his last three outings.
Record: 167-123-7 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +103.74%
MLB: Wednesday's 7 p.m. ET plays
Play: Atlanta -112 (action vs. Santana)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Hyun-Jin Ryu last faced the Braves in the last October's NLDS. He gave up four runs on six hits in three innings in that one. Ervin Santana has a four-game winning streak and a 2.65 ERA over than span. He has a 3.27 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the Dodgers. Atlanta has the better bullpen overall and its relievers have a 2.65 ERA at Turner Field. Los Angeles' bullpen has a 4.26 ERA on the road. Dodgers 3B Juan Uribe is 0-for-13 with five punchouts in his career against Santana. Los Angeles' relievers have a 4.09 ERA in their last five games. Impressive stat: Braves starters have combined for 82 quality starts, the most in the majors. The Dodgers are averaging a paltry 2.83 runs in their last 10 games vs. RH.
Play: Washington/N.Y. Mets under 7 -119 and N.Y. Mets +1.5 -155 (Zimmermann vs. Colon)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think runs will be hard to come by in this one, thus making both plays attractive. The Mets would be 80-40 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 51-66 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Washington should be without Jayson Werth (shoulder). Jordan Zimmermann has a 3.35 ERA in 18 career starts against New York. Bartolo Colon has a 2.32 ERA in four lifetime starts against the Nationals, and he has walked two or fewer batters in 49 of his last 53 starts. Additionally, the three games called by umpire Stu Scheurwater this season have averaged 4.33 runs.
Record: 167-123-7 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +103.74%
MLB: Wednesday's Bos/Cin
Play: Boston/Cincinnati over 7.5 -115 (Ranaudo vs. Leake)
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Anthony Ranaudo was brought up from the minors yesterday and will make his second career start. Mike Leake has been moved up in the rotation in place of Homer Bailey (elbow). Leake issued four walks in each of his last two starts. Yoenis Cespedes has homered in each of his last two games. Games called by Jerry Meals this season (21 total) have averaged 9.62 runs. In 2013 his 30 games averaged 8.45 runs. In 2012 his 33 games averaged 8.60 runs. And this game will be played during the day at Great American Ball Park.
Record: 167-123-7 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +103.74%
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Anthony Ranaudo was brought up from the minors yesterday and will make his second career start. Mike Leake has been moved up in the rotation in place of Homer Bailey (elbow). Leake issued four walks in each of his last two starts. Yoenis Cespedes has homered in each of his last two games. Games called by Jerry Meals this season (21 total) have averaged 9.62 runs. In 2013 his 30 games averaged 8.45 runs. In 2012 his 33 games averaged 8.60 runs. And this game will be played during the day at Great American Ball Park.
Record: 167-123-7 (57.6%)
Bankroll: +103.74%
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: San Francisco +1.5 -165 (Sale vs. Vogelsong)
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Giants would be 79-39 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The White Sox would be 36-83 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Chicago has lost seven of its last nine. It has averaged just 1.5 runs in its last six games. Chris Sale is winless in his last two starts and his ERA is higher than normal over his last three outings. San Francisco hits better and scores more against LH. Ryan Vogelsong is coming off back-to-back wins and he has a 2.57 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in his last three turns. In addition, the White Sox have never seen Vogelsong. And the Giants bullpen is nearly two runs per game better than Chicago's bullpen.
Record: 166-123-7 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +100.1%
Monday, August 11, 2014
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Seattle -196 (action vs. Hernandez)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Given the circumstances with Toronto, I think this price is a bargain. The Blue Jays are coming off of a cross-country flight after playing a 19-inning affair with Detroit on Sunday. It was the longest game in club history and Toronto used eight pitchers. Now the Jays get to face Felix Hernandez and all he has done is string together a major-league record 15 straight starts in which he lasted at least seven innings while giving up two or fewer runs. King Felix has allowed just 25 hits in his last 53 innings. Toronto counters with Drew Hutchison, who has allowed 19 earned runs over 25 innings in his last five road starts. He also has allowed a homer in each of his last four turns overall. The Mariners score a quarter-run more per game vs. RH. And their bullpen? It's nearly two runs better per game than the Jays' relief corps.
Record: 165-123-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +97.08%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Given the circumstances with Toronto, I think this price is a bargain. The Blue Jays are coming off of a cross-country flight after playing a 19-inning affair with Detroit on Sunday. It was the longest game in club history and Toronto used eight pitchers. Now the Jays get to face Felix Hernandez and all he has done is string together a major-league record 15 straight starts in which he lasted at least seven innings while giving up two or fewer runs. King Felix has allowed just 25 hits in his last 53 innings. Toronto counters with Drew Hutchison, who has allowed 19 earned runs over 25 innings in his last five road starts. He also has allowed a homer in each of his last four turns overall. The Mariners score a quarter-run more per game vs. RH. And their bullpen? It's nearly two runs better per game than the Jays' relief corps.
Record: 165-123-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +97.08%
Sunday, August 10, 2014
MLB: Sunday's Was/Atl
Play: Washington +111 (Gonzalez vs. action)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Nationals are hitting 31 points higher and are scoring almost a half-run more per game vs. LH. In their last five contests against southpaws, they are averaging 7.88 runs. Atlanta starter Alex Wood has a 1.67 WHIP in his last three outings. In their last 10 games vs. LH the Braves are hitting .211 and are averaging 0.84 runs. Atlanta has lost nine of its last 10 contests and has scored just one run in its last 15 innings. Washington's bullpen is a half-run better per game overall than Altanta's relief corps. Nationals relievers boast a 2.51 ERA in their last 10 games and a 0.98 ERA in their last five. Braves relievers have a 4.30 ERA in their last five and a 6.26 ERA in their last 10.
Record: 164-122-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +97.94%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Nationals are hitting 31 points higher and are scoring almost a half-run more per game vs. LH. In their last five contests against southpaws, they are averaging 7.88 runs. Atlanta starter Alex Wood has a 1.67 WHIP in his last three outings. In their last 10 games vs. LH the Braves are hitting .211 and are averaging 0.84 runs. Atlanta has lost nine of its last 10 contests and has scored just one run in its last 15 innings. Washington's bullpen is a half-run better per game overall than Altanta's relief corps. Nationals relievers boast a 2.51 ERA in their last 10 games and a 0.98 ERA in their last five. Braves relievers have a 4.30 ERA in their last five and a 6.26 ERA in their last 10.
Record: 164-122-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +97.94%
MLB: Sunday's Det/Tor
Play: Toronto +1.5 -117 (Price vs. Buehrle)
Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays would be 74-44 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 44-70 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Detroit has averaged just 2.17 runs and has gone 2-4 so far on this road trip. It has lost four of the five season meetings with Toronto and the Tigers have lost seven of their last nine road games. Mark Buehrle is 18-10 with a 3.49 ERA all-time against Detroit. The Jays have the better bullpen here and they are hitting .300 in their last five games vs. LH. The Tigers? In their last five against southpaws they are hitting .132 and are scoring 0.84 rpg. Individually Jose Reyes wears out Detroit (.386 avg during a 20-game hitting streak). And Miguel Cabrera is hitting .140 in 12 games at Rogers Centre since 2011.
Record: 164-122-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +97.94%
Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays would be 74-44 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Tigers would be 44-70 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Detroit has averaged just 2.17 runs and has gone 2-4 so far on this road trip. It has lost four of the five season meetings with Toronto and the Tigers have lost seven of their last nine road games. Mark Buehrle is 18-10 with a 3.49 ERA all-time against Detroit. The Jays have the better bullpen here and they are hitting .300 in their last five games vs. LH. The Tigers? In their last five against southpaws they are hitting .132 and are scoring 0.84 rpg. Individually Jose Reyes wears out Detroit (.386 avg during a 20-game hitting streak). And Miguel Cabrera is hitting .140 in 12 games at Rogers Centre since 2011.
Record: 164-122-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +97.94%
Saturday, August 9, 2014
MLB: Saturday's Col/Ari
Play: Colorado +104 (De La Rosa vs. action)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Trevor Cahill has been a gas can in 2014. He has a 5.12 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Jorge De La Rosa has struggled, but he looks extraordinary when matched against Cahill. De La Rosa has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his last three outings. The road ERA for Rockies relievers is 3.86 and they have a 3.35 ERA in their last 10 games. The home ERA for Diamondbacks relievers is 4.40 and their ERA over the last 10 games is 6.96.
Record: 164-120-7 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +110.58%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Trevor Cahill has been a gas can in 2014. He has a 5.12 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Jorge De La Rosa has struggled, but he looks extraordinary when matched against Cahill. De La Rosa has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his last three outings. The road ERA for Rockies relievers is 3.86 and they have a 3.35 ERA in their last 10 games. The home ERA for Diamondbacks relievers is 4.40 and their ERA over the last 10 games is 6.96.
Record: 164-120-7 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +110.58%
MLB: Saturday's TB/ChC
Play: Chi. Cubs +123 (action vs. Jackson)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Edwin Jackson, who pitched three seasons for Tampa Bay, is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts against his former club. In his last start Jackson held the Angels to two runs over six innings. Those same Angels crushed Jake Odorizzi in his last turn (3 IP, 5 R). This season Odorizzi is 3-4 with a 5.73 ERA in nine road games. Tampa Bay, which somehow is above .500 on the road, has been outscored by a half-run per game away from Tropicana Field. The Rays also score a half-run less per game vs. RH. Chicago has averaged 5.02 rpg vs. RH in its last 10 contests and 6.00 rpg vs. RH in its last five. Cubs SS Starlin Castro is 12-for-29 over his last seven games.
Record: 164-120-7 (57.7%)
Bankroll: +110.58%
Friday, August 8, 2014
MLB: Friday's Min/Oak
Play: Minnesota +1.5 -105 (Gibson vs. Kazmir)
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 68-45 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Athletics would be 54-60 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland has never seen Kyle Gibson, who has a 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts. Scott Kazmir has a 3.50 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his last three outings. In his last start Kazmir allowed four runs on 10 hits. On April 7 he faced Minnesota and allowed three runs in six innings. Athletics SS Jed Lowrie (finger) may miss this one.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins would be 68-45 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Athletics would be 54-60 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland has never seen Kyle Gibson, who has a 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts. Scott Kazmir has a 3.50 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his last three outings. In his last start Kazmir allowed four runs on 10 hits. On April 7 he faced Minnesota and allowed three runs in six innings. Athletics SS Jed Lowrie (finger) may miss this one.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
MLB: Friday's Col/Ari
Play: Colorado +1.5 -175 (Matzek vs. Anderson)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 62-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Diamondbacks would be 28-87 if they gave 1.5 runs per game. Arizona has lost five of its last six games and its bullpen is worse at home (4.76 ERA) than Colorado's is on the road (3.83 ERA). Over the last 10 games, Rockies relievers have been much better than their Diamondbacks counterparts (3.39 ERA vs. 5.54 ERA). Arizona has averaged just 2.92 rpg over its last 10 and 2.56 rpg in their last five. Plus, the Diamondbacks have never sen Tyler Matzek.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rockies would be 62-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Diamondbacks would be 28-87 if they gave 1.5 runs per game. Arizona has lost five of its last six games and its bullpen is worse at home (4.76 ERA) than Colorado's is on the road (3.83 ERA). Over the last 10 games, Rockies relievers have been much better than their Diamondbacks counterparts (3.39 ERA vs. 5.54 ERA). Arizona has averaged just 2.92 rpg over its last 10 and 2.56 rpg in their last five. Plus, the Diamondbacks have never sen Tyler Matzek.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
MLB: Friday's Was/Atl
Play: Atlanta +1.5 -160 (Strasburg vs. Santana)
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 77-37 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 49-64 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Ervin Santana has won three straight decisions and five of his last six. In his last turn he allowed two runs on six hits in 6.2 IP vs. San Diego. He has a 3.82 ERA in five career contests against Washington, and has a 1.23 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in his last three starts. Stephen Strasburg is 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 career outings against Atlanta. This season he is 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts against the Braves. The Nats hit 31 points less and score 0.36 fewer rpg vs. RH. Atlanta's bullpen has a 2.50 ERA at home.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 77-37 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 49-64 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Ervin Santana has won three straight decisions and five of his last six. In his last turn he allowed two runs on six hits in 6.2 IP vs. San Diego. He has a 3.82 ERA in five career contests against Washington, and has a 1.23 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in his last three starts. Stephen Strasburg is 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 career outings against Atlanta. This season he is 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts against the Braves. The Nats hit 31 points less and score 0.36 fewer rpg vs. RH. Atlanta's bullpen has a 2.50 ERA at home.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
MLB: Friday's SD/Pit
Play: San Diego +1.5 -175 (Kennedy vs. Worley)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres would be 66-47 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Pirates would be 38-76 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Pittsburgh is without Andrew McCutcheon (rib) for at least two weeks and may be without Neil Walker (back) for this one. San Diego has won six of its last eight contests. Padres relievers have a 0.44 ERA in their last five games and they are more than a run better overall than their Pirates counterparts. Ian Kennedy held Atlanta to one run on two hits over five innings in his last outing, which was his first one following a missed start for a sore oblique. On June 4 he held Pittsburgh to two runs in six innings while striking out seven. San Diego 1B Yonder Alonso is 6-for-8 with a home run and three doubles in his last two games.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
MLB: Friday's Mia/Cin
Play: Miami +1.5 -175 (Eovaldi vs. Leake)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Marlins would be 72-42 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Reds would be 42-73 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Nathan Eovaldi allowed Cincinnati just one run on two hits in seven innings in his last start. He has a 3.48 ERA in 10 road contests in 2014, and he has a 1.03 WHIP in his last three turns. Giancarlo Stanton homered twice against the Reds in their series last week. Cincinnati scores 0.64 less rpg vs. RH. Miami has the better bullpen and it has a 2.10 ERA in its last 10 games.
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Record: 160-119-7 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +100.25%
Thursday, August 7, 2014
MLB: Thursday's KC/Ari
Play: Arizona -104 (action vs. Nuno)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kansas City is scoring a half-run less per game against LH, and it will have a face a hot one in Vidal Nuno. Since coming over from the Yankees, Nuno has amassed a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. And the Royals have never seen him. The Diamondbacks have seen Jeremy Guthrie. They rocked him for seven runs on 11 hits in 3.1 IP in his only appearance at Chase Field.
Record: 159-118-7 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +100.94%
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kansas City is scoring a half-run less per game against LH, and it will have a face a hot one in Vidal Nuno. Since coming over from the Yankees, Nuno has amassed a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. And the Royals have never seen him. The Diamondbacks have seen Jeremy Guthrie. They rocked him for seven runs on 11 hits in 3.1 IP in his only appearance at Chase Field.
Record: 159-118-7 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +100.94%
MLB: Thursday's ChC/Col
Play: Chi. Cubs -113 (Hendricks vs. action)
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago is hitting 30 points better and is scoring 0.71 more runs per game vs. LH. Yohan Flande has a 5.72 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP on the season and he has a 6.06 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in his last three starts. Kyle Hendricks has been ridiculous for the Cubs. He has a 2.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2014 and and a 0.89 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last three outings. Chicago's bullpen is a run better per game overall than Colorado's bullpen and it is 1.5 runs better in the last 10 games.
Record: 159-118-7 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +100.94%
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Chicago is hitting 30 points better and is scoring 0.71 more runs per game vs. LH. Yohan Flande has a 5.72 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP on the season and he has a 6.06 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in his last three starts. Kyle Hendricks has been ridiculous for the Cubs. He has a 2.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2014 and and a 0.89 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last three outings. Chicago's bullpen is a run better per game overall than Colorado's bullpen and it is 1.5 runs better in the last 10 games.
Record: 159-118-7 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +100.94%
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: Atlanta/Seattle over 7 +108 (Teheran vs. Young)
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This season games called by Lance Barrett have averaged 9.45 runs. Over the last five seasons, Barrett's games have averaged 9.21 runs and the "over" is 35-26 (57.4%). Braves games have averaged 7.42 runs this season and Mariners games have averaged 7.09 runs. Julio Teheran has a 3.55 ERA in two career interleague starts. Chris Young, who has a 1.31 WHIP in his last three turns, has a 6.69 ERA in eight career starts against Atlanta. Braves relievers have a 5.87 ERA in their last five games and a 4.55 ERA in their last 10.
Record: 158-118-7 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +94.63%
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This season games called by Lance Barrett have averaged 9.45 runs. Over the last five seasons, Barrett's games have averaged 9.21 runs and the "over" is 35-26 (57.4%). Braves games have averaged 7.42 runs this season and Mariners games have averaged 7.09 runs. Julio Teheran has a 3.55 ERA in two career interleague starts. Chris Young, who has a 1.31 WHIP in his last three turns, has a 6.69 ERA in eight career starts against Atlanta. Braves relievers have a 5.87 ERA in their last five games and a 4.55 ERA in their last 10.
Record: 158-118-7 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +94.63%
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Atl/Sea
Play: Atlanta/Seattle over 6 +112 (Wood vs. Hernandez)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games involving these teams average between 6.61 and 7.63 runs both in the overall categories and in the home/away splits. Both of these pitchers lost in their only career appearances against these opposing teams (Alex Wood: 2 IP, 2 R; Felix Hernandez: 7.2 IP, 5 R). Wood has a 1.33 WHIP in his last three outings. Braves relievers have a 4.88 ERA in their last 10 games and an 8.22 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 157-117-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +93.76%
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games involving these teams average between 6.61 and 7.63 runs both in the overall categories and in the home/away splits. Both of these pitchers lost in their only career appearances against these opposing teams (Alex Wood: 2 IP, 2 R; Felix Hernandez: 7.2 IP, 5 R). Wood has a 1.33 WHIP in his last three outings. Braves relievers have a 4.88 ERA in their last 10 games and an 8.22 ERA in their last five contests.
Record: 157-117-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +93.76%
MLB: Tuesday's SD/Min
Play: San Diego +109 (Hahn vs. action)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres have won three straight, five of their last six and 10 of their last 15. Tonight they will throw rookie sensation Jesse Hahn at Minnesota. Hahn has allowed just 11 hits in 24 innings on the road and has allowed zero homers in his last eight starts. Hahn has a 2.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 2014. And his numbers over his last three starts are even better. San Diego is averaging more than six runs per game in its last five contests and Padres relievers have a 0.47 ERA over that time period. San Diego's bullpen is a run better overall than Minnesota's, and Phil Hughes has a 5.51 ERA at home this season.
Record: 157-117-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +93.76%
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres have won three straight, five of their last six and 10 of their last 15. Tonight they will throw rookie sensation Jesse Hahn at Minnesota. Hahn has allowed just 11 hits in 24 innings on the road and has allowed zero homers in his last eight starts. Hahn has a 2.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 2014. And his numbers over his last three starts are even better. San Diego is averaging more than six runs per game in its last five contests and Padres relievers have a 0.47 ERA over that time period. San Diego's bullpen is a run better overall than Minnesota's, and Phil Hughes has a 5.51 ERA at home this season.
Record: 157-117-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +93.76%
MLB: Tuesday's Mia/Pit
Play: Miami +115 (Hand vs. action)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh will be without Andrew McCutchen (oblique) starting tonight and he may miss a month. The Pirates also will have to contend with Brad Hand in this one. Hand has a 2.11 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. He also has a road ERA of 3.21 and Pittsburgh has never seen him. Charlie Morton is winless in his last five starts and has allowed 15 runs in his last 24 IP. He has a 4.41 ERA in nine career starts against the Marlins.
Record: 157-117-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +93.76%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh will be without Andrew McCutchen (oblique) starting tonight and he may miss a month. The Pirates also will have to contend with Brad Hand in this one. Hand has a 2.11 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. He also has a road ERA of 3.21 and Pittsburgh has never seen him. Charlie Morton is winless in his last five starts and has allowed 15 runs in his last 24 IP. He has a 4.41 ERA in nine career starts against the Marlins.
Record: 157-117-6 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +93.76%
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