Play: Kansas City +6 -102
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: The Chiefs would be 2-0 if they didn't allow two TDs nine seconds apart in the final minute of their last game against Denver. That and five turnovers. But they've had extra time to prepare and recover for this one, as their Week 2 contest was on a Thursday night. Green Bay needed a fourth-quarter comeback to cover the spread in its last game vs. Seattle. Kansas City dominated the line of scrimmage against the Broncos and entered this week tied for second in the NFL in sacks (eight). Here it goes against a Packers team that won't have tackle Bryan Bulaga protecting Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay, which will play 2015 without Jordy Nelson, will at least have a limited Eddie Lacy in this one. Lacy, who suffered an ankle injury last week, returned to practice on Friday but was limited. Davante Adams (ankle) is also questionable.
Record: 424-338-20 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +189.18%
Monday, September 28, 2015
Saturday, September 26, 2015
NCAAF: Saturday's play
Play: Texas +3 -105
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: The Longhorns were blown out 38-3 in their season opener at Notre Dame. So enter a new play caller (Jay Norvell) and redshirt freshman QB Jerrod Heard. The result? A 42-28 victory over Rice and a near-comeback in a 45-44 loss to Cal. Texas, which has played the 12th-toughest schedule in the country, has averaged 463.5 yards over its last two games. Against the Bears Heard rushed for 247 yards and passed for 494 more. He has two deep targets in John Burt and Daje Johnson, who couldn't get the ball against the Irish with Tyrone Swoopes behind center. Johnson now has 11 receptions for 190 yards and Burt has six catches for 182 yards. Oklahoma State is 3-0, but it has played three non-Power 5 teams that have combined to go 1-7. The Cowboys, whose schedule ranks 168th, fell to Longhorns 28-7 at home last season.
Record: 424-338-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +189.18%
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: The Longhorns were blown out 38-3 in their season opener at Notre Dame. So enter a new play caller (Jay Norvell) and redshirt freshman QB Jerrod Heard. The result? A 42-28 victory over Rice and a near-comeback in a 45-44 loss to Cal. Texas, which has played the 12th-toughest schedule in the country, has averaged 463.5 yards over its last two games. Against the Bears Heard rushed for 247 yards and passed for 494 more. He has two deep targets in John Burt and Daje Johnson, who couldn't get the ball against the Irish with Tyrone Swoopes behind center. Johnson now has 11 receptions for 190 yards and Burt has six catches for 182 yards. Oklahoma State is 3-0, but it has played three non-Power 5 teams that have combined to go 1-7. The Cowboys, whose schedule ranks 168th, fell to Longhorns 28-7 at home last season.
Record: 424-338-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +189.18%
Thursday, September 24, 2015
NFL: Thursday's play
Play: N.Y. Giants -3 -110
Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Reasoning: New York could be 2-0 right now, but it blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads in each of its first two games. Here the Giants get a Washington team that is making its 2015 road debut. New York has won the last four meetings and the Redskins were 1-7 on the road in 2013 and 2014. Washington has averaged 171.5 rushing yards through two games, but the Giants have allowed an average of just 68 rushing yards. In last season's series sweep, New York outscored the Redskins 69-27. Kirk Cousins will go for Washington, but he is just 3-8 as a starter with the team. He also threw four INTs and lost a fumble last September against the Giants. Eli Manning has made some poor decisions so far this season, but he was 51-of-73 for 550 yards and seven TDs (one INT) in 2014 against Washington. And in those games Alfred Morris was held to a combined 112 rushing yards. On defense New York should have MLB Jon Beason back for this contest. Turnover-wise, the Giants have posted only one and the Redskins have just one takeaway.
Record: 423-338-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +181.50%
Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Reasoning: New York could be 2-0 right now, but it blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads in each of its first two games. Here the Giants get a Washington team that is making its 2015 road debut. New York has won the last four meetings and the Redskins were 1-7 on the road in 2013 and 2014. Washington has averaged 171.5 rushing yards through two games, but the Giants have allowed an average of just 68 rushing yards. In last season's series sweep, New York outscored the Redskins 69-27. Kirk Cousins will go for Washington, but he is just 3-8 as a starter with the team. He also threw four INTs and lost a fumble last September against the Giants. Eli Manning has made some poor decisions so far this season, but he was 51-of-73 for 550 yards and seven TDs (one INT) in 2014 against Washington. And in those games Alfred Morris was held to a combined 112 rushing yards. On defense New York should have MLB Jon Beason back for this contest. Turnover-wise, the Giants have posted only one and the Redskins have just one takeaway.
Record: 423-338-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +181.50%
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
No plays for Wednesday
Subscribers have been extended another day.
Record: 423-338-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +181.50%
Record: 423-338-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +181.50%
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: N.Y. Yankees +1.5 -162 (Severino vs. Estrada)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: New York would be 105-44 if it was given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 73-77 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Luis Severino has a 3.12 ERA. He allowed one run over 5.2 innings in his last start. Marco Estrada allowed four runs (three homers) over five innings in his last outing against the Yankees. New York is averaging 6.67 rpg over its last five against RH, and Yankees relievers have a 2.70 ERA in their last five overall. Blue Jays relievers have a 5.73 ERA over their last five.
Record: 422-338-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +176.38%
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Reasoning: New York would be 105-44 if it was given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 73-77 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Luis Severino has a 3.12 ERA. He allowed one run over 5.2 innings in his last start. Marco Estrada allowed four runs (three homers) over five innings in his last outing against the Yankees. New York is averaging 6.67 rpg over its last five against RH, and Yankees relievers have a 2.70 ERA in their last five overall. Blue Jays relievers have a 5.73 ERA over their last five.
Record: 422-338-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +176.38%
Monday, September 21, 2015
NFL: Sunday's play
Play: Tennessee -1.5 -105
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both teams will start Heisman Trophy-winning QBs. One (Marcus Mariota) has a perfect NFL passer rating through one game. The other (Johnny Manziel) has had two horrible starts in the league. Mariota threw four TDs in the first half against Tampa Bay last week. Manziel, who is starting in place of Josh McCown (concussion), took over for McCown last week in a 31-10 loss to the Jets. And he committed three of Cleveland's five turnovers. The Titans, whose defense is now under Dick LeBeau, forced three turnovers in the opener and sacked Jameis Winston four times. The Browns allowed 154 rushing yards against New York, which was 7 of 13 on third downs. Cleveland also committed 12 penalties. Tennessee ran for 124 yards last week behind Bishop Sankey and ex-Brown Terrance West.
Record: 421-338-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +168.33%
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both teams will start Heisman Trophy-winning QBs. One (Marcus Mariota) has a perfect NFL passer rating through one game. The other (Johnny Manziel) has had two horrible starts in the league. Mariota threw four TDs in the first half against Tampa Bay last week. Manziel, who is starting in place of Josh McCown (concussion), took over for McCown last week in a 31-10 loss to the Jets. And he committed three of Cleveland's five turnovers. The Titans, whose defense is now under Dick LeBeau, forced three turnovers in the opener and sacked Jameis Winston four times. The Browns allowed 154 rushing yards against New York, which was 7 of 13 on third downs. Cleveland also committed 12 penalties. Tennessee ran for 124 yards last week behind Bishop Sankey and ex-Brown Terrance West.
Record: 421-338-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +168.33%
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Chicago/Detroit under 9 +100 (Samardzija vs. Ryan)
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jeff Samardzija has a 3.94 ERA in five career starts (all this season) against the Tigers. Kyle Ryan has allowed the White Sox just two runs in 13 lifetime innings against them. Chicago scores a half-run fewer per game vs. LH. Detroit scores 0.65 fewer rpg vs. RH. White Sox games average 8.38 runs. Both teams average fewer than nine runs in their home/away splits. Chicago has averaged 2.08 rpg over its last five vs. LH. Tigers relievers have a 3.75 ERA over their last 10.
Record: 421-338-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +168.33%
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jeff Samardzija has a 3.94 ERA in five career starts (all this season) against the Tigers. Kyle Ryan has allowed the White Sox just two runs in 13 lifetime innings against them. Chicago scores a half-run fewer per game vs. LH. Detroit scores 0.65 fewer rpg vs. RH. White Sox games average 8.38 runs. Both teams average fewer than nine runs in their home/away splits. Chicago has averaged 2.08 rpg over its last five vs. LH. Tigers relievers have a 3.75 ERA over their last 10.
Record: 421-338-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +168.33%
Saturday, September 19, 2015
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Milwaukee -150 (Smith vs. Jungmann)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Taylor Jungmann is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP against Cincinnati this season. He is 5-2 with a 1.50 ERA at home in 2015 and has allowed one run over his last 18.1 innings at Miller Park. Josh Smith, who will make his fourth career start, allowed the Brewers five runs in 4.1 innings on July 4. He has walked 13 in 14.2 big-league innings this season. Milwaukee has the better bullpen and scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. The Reds score nearly one fewer rpg vs. RH. Brewers relievers have a 2.22 ERA in their last five and Cincinnati's bullpen has a 5.25 ERA over that same period.
Record: 421-337-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +176.63%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Taylor Jungmann is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP against Cincinnati this season. He is 5-2 with a 1.50 ERA at home in 2015 and has allowed one run over his last 18.1 innings at Miller Park. Josh Smith, who will make his fourth career start, allowed the Brewers five runs in 4.1 innings on July 4. He has walked 13 in 14.2 big-league innings this season. Milwaukee has the better bullpen and scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. The Reds score nearly one fewer rpg vs. RH. Brewers relievers have a 2.22 ERA in their last five and Cincinnati's bullpen has a 5.25 ERA over that same period.
Record: 421-337-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +176.63%
Friday, September 18, 2015
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been extended another day.
Record: 421-337-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +176.63%
Record: 421-337-19 (55.5%)
Bankroll: +176.63%
Thursday, September 17, 2015
MLB: Thursday's 8:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Houston -118 (McCullers vs. Lewis)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: I like Lance McCullers to stop the bleeding for the Astros. He has a 3.10 ERA on the season and a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. He gave up two runs to the Angels over five innings in his last turn. Colby Lewis has a 4.45 ERA in 2015 and a 5.03 mark over his last three games. In his last meeting with Houston Lewis gave up seven runs on 10 hits (three homers) over six innings. The Astros score more and Texas scores less against RH. Houston's bullpen has a 3.03 ERA and Rangers relievers have a 4.31 ERA.
Record: 421-335-19 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +194.29%
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN
Reasoning: I like Lance McCullers to stop the bleeding for the Astros. He has a 3.10 ERA on the season and a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. He gave up two runs to the Angels over five innings in his last turn. Colby Lewis has a 4.45 ERA in 2015 and a 5.03 mark over his last three games. In his last meeting with Houston Lewis gave up seven runs on 10 hits (three homers) over six innings. The Astros score more and Texas scores less against RH. Houston's bullpen has a 3.03 ERA and Rangers relievers have a 4.31 ERA.
Record: 421-335-19 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +194.29%
MLB: Thursday's 7:10 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta +1.5 +100 (Estrada vs. Wisler)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 74-72 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 70-75 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Rookie Matt Wisler has picked up his play in his last two outings, throwing two innings of scoreless relief on Sept. 6 before giving up just two runs over six innings last Friday. Marco Estrada allowed three homers and four runs over five innings in his last go-around. The Blue Jays, who are without Troy Tulowitzki, are hitting 17 points lower and are scoring fewer rpg vs. RH. The Braves are hitting 21 points higher and are scoring 0.71 more rpg vs. RH. Toronto's bullpen has a 4.86 ERA over its last 10. Atlanta's Christian Bethancourt is hitting .412 over his last five.
Record: 421-335-19 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +194.29%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves would be 74-72 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 70-75 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Rookie Matt Wisler has picked up his play in his last two outings, throwing two innings of scoreless relief on Sept. 6 before giving up just two runs over six innings last Friday. Marco Estrada allowed three homers and four runs over five innings in his last go-around. The Blue Jays, who are without Troy Tulowitzki, are hitting 17 points lower and are scoring fewer rpg vs. RH. The Braves are hitting 21 points higher and are scoring 0.71 more rpg vs. RH. Toronto's bullpen has a 4.86 ERA over its last 10. Atlanta's Christian Bethancourt is hitting .412 over his last five.
Record: 421-335-19 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +194.29%
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
No plays for Wednesday
Subscribers have been extended another day.
Record: 421-335-19 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +194.29%
Record: 421-335-19 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +194.29%
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: Toronto/Atlanta under 8 +100 (Buehrle vs. Teheran)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays took a big hit when they lost Troy Tulowitzki (shoulder) for a couple of weeks. Toronto was shut out 5-0 on Sunday without him. Here the Jays will see Julio Teheran, who allowed one run on four hits over seven innings in his last outing. Teheran has posted quality starts in seven of his last eight chances. Toronto is hitting lower and is scoring fewer rpg vs. RH. The Braves are hitting .231 and are scoring 3.11 rpg vs. LH. Here they will face Mark Buehrle, who should be good to go following extra rest after getting a cortisone shot in his left shoulder. He'll be backed up by relievers who have a collective 3.32 ERA.
Record: 420-335-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +185.72%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays took a big hit when they lost Troy Tulowitzki (shoulder) for a couple of weeks. Toronto was shut out 5-0 on Sunday without him. Here the Jays will see Julio Teheran, who allowed one run on four hits over seven innings in his last outing. Teheran has posted quality starts in seven of his last eight chances. Toronto is hitting lower and is scoring fewer rpg vs. RH. The Braves are hitting .231 and are scoring 3.11 rpg vs. LH. Here they will face Mark Buehrle, who should be good to go following extra rest after getting a cortisone shot in his left shoulder. He'll be backed up by relievers who have a collective 3.32 ERA.
Record: 420-335-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +185.72%
Sunday, September 13, 2015
No plays for Monday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 420-335-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +185.72%
Record: 420-335-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +185.72%
Saturday, September 12, 2015
NFL: Sunday's play
Play: Miami -3 -115
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I really like the Dolphins this season with all of the new additions. On offense they appear loaded. They brought in Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron. They drafted DeVante Parker, who should play following a return from foot surgery. Those guys will join Lamar Miller (nearly 1,400 scrimmage yards in 2014), Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and Ryan Tannehill, who will begin his fourth season. Tannehill has improved in each of his first three seasons and will be in his second year under coordinator Bill Lazor. Tannehill should have a better offensive line in 2015 with the return of left tackle Branden Albert from knee injuries. On defense, Miami added Ndamukong Suh to go with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon. In 2014 Miami was plus-15 in turnover differential. Here the Dolphins will face Kirk Cousins, who will be working behind a middling line. Washington will trot out third-string TE Jordan Reed because of injuries to Niles Paul (ankle) and Logan Paulsen (toe ligament). And DeSean Jackson has been slowed by a sprained shoulder suffered in the preseason. Defensively the 'skins were terrible last season, giving up 46 TDs which tied Chicago and Oakland for worst in the league. And even though they played against weak passers in 2014, they allowed opposing QBs to post a 108.3 passer rating. One promising defender for Washington, CB Bashaud Breeland, is suspended for this one (substance abuse) and he likely will miss a month anyway because of a sprained MCL.
Record: 419-335-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +178.46%
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I really like the Dolphins this season with all of the new additions. On offense they appear loaded. They brought in Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron. They drafted DeVante Parker, who should play following a return from foot surgery. Those guys will join Lamar Miller (nearly 1,400 scrimmage yards in 2014), Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and Ryan Tannehill, who will begin his fourth season. Tannehill has improved in each of his first three seasons and will be in his second year under coordinator Bill Lazor. Tannehill should have a better offensive line in 2015 with the return of left tackle Branden Albert from knee injuries. On defense, Miami added Ndamukong Suh to go with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon. In 2014 Miami was plus-15 in turnover differential. Here the Dolphins will face Kirk Cousins, who will be working behind a middling line. Washington will trot out third-string TE Jordan Reed because of injuries to Niles Paul (ankle) and Logan Paulsen (toe ligament). And DeSean Jackson has been slowed by a sprained shoulder suffered in the preseason. Defensively the 'skins were terrible last season, giving up 46 TDs which tied Chicago and Oakland for worst in the league. And even though they played against weak passers in 2014, they allowed opposing QBs to post a 108.3 passer rating. One promising defender for Washington, CB Bashaud Breeland, is suspended for this one (substance abuse) and he likely will miss a month anyway because of a sprained MCL.
Record: 419-335-19 (55.6%)
Bankroll: +178.46%
MLB: Saturday's plays
Play: Philadelphia +1.5 +105 (Haren vs. Eickhoff)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 73-69 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Chicago would be 53-87 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Philadelphia will run out Jerad Eickhoff in this one. The rookie, who was acquired in the Cole Hamels deal, has posted three quality starts out of four tries. The Cubs will go with Dan Haren, who has allowed nine runs over 18 innings in three games vs. the Phillies this season. Haren is 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 career starts against Philadelphia and he is 0-5 in seven outings in Citizens Bank Park. Phillies relievers are nearly as good as their Chicago counterparts overall in 2015, and Cubs relievers have a 4.82 ERA in their last five.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Phillies would be 73-69 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Chicago would be 53-87 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Philadelphia will run out Jerad Eickhoff in this one. The rookie, who was acquired in the Cole Hamels deal, has posted three quality starts out of four tries. The Cubs will go with Dan Haren, who has allowed nine runs over 18 innings in three games vs. the Phillies this season. Haren is 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 career starts against Philadelphia and he is 0-5 in seven outings in Citizens Bank Park. Phillies relievers are nearly as good as their Chicago counterparts overall in 2015, and Cubs relievers have a 4.82 ERA in their last five.
Play: Milwaukee/Pittsburgh under 8 -110 (Davies vs. Locke)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at PNC Park average 7.59 runs. Rookie Zach Davies takes the ball for the Brewers and he allowed one run on four hits and didn't walk a batter over seven innings in his last start. Jeff Locke goes for the Pirates and he has a 3.62 ERA at home. Milwaukee is hitting .233 and is scoring a half-run fewer per game vs. LH. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 2.76 ERA overall and Brewers relievers have a 2.83 ERA over their last 10.
Play: Detroit +102 (Verlander vs. Anderson)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians are 30-34 at home and starter Cody Anderson has a 5.33 ERA at Progressive Field. Justin Verlander has a 1.78 ERA in his last nine starts. He also hasn't allowed a homer in five of his last six. Miguel Cabrera has a 13-game hitting streak and James McCann is 10-for-24 with six RBIs and four runs scored in his last six.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Atlanta under 8 -110 (Snydergaard vs. Perez)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games umpired by Chris Segal have averaged 7.58 runs. The Braves are averaging just 2.97 rpg over their last 10. New York's bullpen has a 0.51 ERA over its last five. Noah Snydergaard will go for the Mets, and he is rested having not pitched since Aug. 30. He has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP on the season. Williams Perez allowed only two runs on six hits over seven innings in his last start. He pitched a scoreless inning to earn a save on June 13 against New York.
Record: 419-333-17 (55.7%)
Bankroll: +196.24%
Bankroll: +196.24%
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