Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tuesday's play was canceled...

...because Sonny Gray didn't start for Oakland. Subscribers have been credited another day.

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Colorado +1.5 -135 (De La Rosa vs. Gray)

Time: 10:05 p.m. ET

TV: MLBN

Reasoning: The Rockies would be 43-32 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Oakland would be 29-50 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Athletics are 15-23 at home. Colorado is hitting 25 points higher and is scoring 1.34 more rpg vs. RH. It is hitting .298 and is scoring 6.87 rpg in its last 10 vs. RH. The A's are hitting .239 and are scoring nearly one fewer rpg vs. LH. On the road Rockies relievers have a 4.06 ERA. Oakland's bullpen has a 4.47 ERA. Jorge De La Rosa, who is 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in three road starts, allowed one run on four hits over five innings in his last turn. Sonny Gray has allowed nine runs over his last 12 innings. Nolan Arenado, last week's NL Player of the Week, leads the majors in RBIs (68) and has the longest hitting streak in baseball (16 games). He is batting .371 with nine homers and 21 RBIs during that period. Troy Tulowitzki has reached base in 28 straight and has a 13-game hitting streak.

Record: 387-302-14 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +238.98%

Monday, June 29, 2015

No plays for Monday

Subscribers have been credited another day.

Record: 387-302-14 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +238.98%

Sunday, June 28, 2015

MLB: Sunday's 1:35 p.m. ET play

Play: Atlanta +130 (Wood vs. Locke)

Time: 1:35 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Andrew McCutchen may miss this one after being hit by a pitch on his left elbow Saturday. Alex Wood is 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA in nine road starts. Jeff Locke has a 4.73 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Over his last three starts Locke has a 2.25 ERA, but he also has a 1.44 WHIP. On June 6 he allowed the Braves four runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings. On Tuesday vs. Cincinnati he allowed four runs in four innings. The Pirates score 0.73 fewer rpg vs. LH. The Braves bullpen has a 2.35 ERA in its last five.

Record: 385-302-14 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +218.58%

MLB: Sunday's 1:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Boston/Tampa Bay over 6.5 -120 (Masterson vs. Archer)

Time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Justin Masterson will make his first start since May 12. He missed five weeks with shoulder tendinitis. On May 12 at Oakland he gave up six runs on six hits over 2.1 innings. On May 6 against the Rays, he walked six and allowed four runs in 4.1 IP. He has a 6.37 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Chris Archer is 1-5 in eight starts lifetime against the Red Sox. Games umpired by Tripp Gibson have averaged 7.57 runs. His games last season averaged 7.81 runs. Boston hits 36 points higher and scores 0.81 more rpg vs. RH. Tampa Bay's bullpen has a 4.08 ERA over its last five.


Record: 385-302-14 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +218.58%




Saturday, June 27, 2015

No plays for Saturday

Subscribers have been credited another day.

Record: 385-302-14 (56.0%)
Bankroll: +218.58%

Friday, June 26, 2015

MLB: Friday's play

Play: Cleveland -120 (Kluber vs. Chen)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Corey Kluber is 3-9, but the Indians haven't given him much support. They have pushed across two runs or fewer in 11 of his 15 starts. They've scored just six runs in his last four starts. Kluber has a 3.65 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He has a 3.26 ERA in three starts lifetime against Baltimore. Wei-Yin Chen has started three games against Cleveland in his career and he has a 5.40 ERA. The Indians are 18-15 on the road. Their bullpen has a 0.60 ERA over its last five.

Record: 385-301-14 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +228.43%

Thursday, June 25, 2015

MLB: Thursday's play

Play: Arizona/Colorado under 10 +108 (R. De La Rosa vs. J. De La Rosa)

Time: 3:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Rubby De La Rosa has allowed one earned run in his last 15 innings pitched. He is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in four appearances lifetime against Colorado. Jorge De La Rosa has a career record of 47-16 with a 4.23 ERA in 88 games (83 starts) at Coors Field. He has a 2.98 ERA in 24 games (20 starts) vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona is hitting .197 and is scoring 1.77 rpg in its last 10 vs. LH. Carlos Gonzalez (hand) remains day-to-day after missing his second straight game on Wednesday. The under is 20-8-1 in Chris Guccione's last 29 games behind the plate.

Record: 385-301-13 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +228.43% 

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

No plays for Wednesday

Subscribers have been credited another day.

Record: 385-301-13 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +228.43% 





MLB: Tuesday's 10:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Seattle +105 (Guthrie vs. Montgomery)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Kansas City is 0-6 in its last six games vs. LH. In their last 10 against southpaws, the Royals are hitting .223 and are scoring 1.45 rpg. In their last five vs. LH, they are scoring 0.98 rpg. Mike Montgomery has pitched at least six innings in each of his four starts since being recalled from the minors. Opponents are hitting .224 against him and he has a 3.10 ERA in three starts at home. Jeremy Guthrie has a 7.71 ERA in six road starts. He is 2-7 with a 5.40 ERA in 13 career starts against the Mariners.

Record: 383-300-13 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +217.48%



MLB: Tuesday's 7 p.m. ET plays

Play: Cincinnati/Pittsburgh over 8 +110 (Smith vs. Locke)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Josh Smith will make his major-league debut. He will face Jeff Locke, who has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. The Reds are averaging nearly one run more per game vs. LH. The Pirates are averaging a half-run more per game vs. RH. Todd Frazier, who is 24-for-64 in his last 15 games, is 8-for-18 lifetime against Locke with two homers. He has four homers this season against the Bucs and 16 lifetime against them. Josh Harrison is 22-for-55 in his last 13 games, and Jay Bruce is 10-for-20 with two homers over his last five. Cincinnati's bullpen has a 4.48 ERA on the road.


Play: Boston -114 (Jimenez vs. Kelly)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Red Sox pounded out 16 hits (13 of them for extra bases) in a 13-2 win Sunday at Kansas City. Here they will face Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 1-3 with an 8.42 ERA in eight career starts against them. Joe Kelly is 1-1 in three career turns against Baltimore and has held the Orioles to a .186 BA. Boston is scoring nearly one run more per game vs. RH. Baltimore is scoring about a half-run fewer per game vs. RH. Mookie Betts is 20-for-36 with three homers and nine extra-base hits over his last nine. Adam Jones (shoulder) is questionable and Pablo Sandoval (leg) is probable.


Record: 383-300-13 (56.1%)
Bankroll: +217.48%


Monday, June 22, 2015

MLB: Monday's play

Play: Chi. White Sox +1.5 -160 (Danks vs. Milone)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN2

Reasoning: Chicago would be 42-26 if it was given 1.5 rpg. Minnesota would be 24-45 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Twins were boat-raced 8-0 Sunday against the Cubs. They have lost 11 of 16. Over their last five games against LH they are hitting .174 and are scoring 1.32 rpg. Over their last 10 against southpaws they are hitting .156 and are scoring 1.19 rpg. Minnesota's bullpen also has a 5.33 ERA in its last 10. White Sox relievers have a 2.25 ERA over their last five and a 3.09 ERA over their last 10. John Danks pitched pretty well in his last turn, allowing just three runs on five hits over seven innings.

Record: 383-299-13 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +227.30%

Sunday, June 21, 2015

MLB: Sunday's play

Play: San Diego -105 (Cashner vs. Hellickson)

Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Padres exploded for eight runs on 10 hits Saturday. Today they'll face a pitcher (Jeremy Hellickson) against whom they've had considerable success. Hellickson is 0-3 with a 8.00 ERA in his career against San Diego. He has a 5.91 ERA in six home starts this season. The Padres will send out Andrew Cashner, who has a 3.03 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts) against Arizona. Cashner is 0-2 against the Diamondbacks in 2014, but he has allowed just two runs in 13 innings in those turns. Arizona has scored only one run in three of its last five games. Over its last five contests against RH, the Diamondbacks are scoring 1.93 rpg and are hitting .210.

Record: 383-298-13 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +237.42%

Saturday, June 20, 2015

MLB: Saturday's play

Play: San Diego -115 (Ross vs. Ray)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Tyson Ross has a 4.09 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, but he's still allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. He has a 3.00 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against Arizona. On May 9 he allowed the Diamondbacks just two runs and five hits over six innings.
Robbie Ray has been dominant since being recalled from the minors. But he's no world-beater. Opponents hit .350 against him in nine appearances last season when he was with Detroit. The Padres hit better against southpaws and they score about a half-run more per game against them. San Diego has scored 4.66 rpg in its last five against LH. Arizona has averaged just 3.27 rpg in its last 10.

 Record: 382-298-13 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +228.84%

Friday, June 19, 2015

MLB: Friday's play

Play: Detroit +107 (Verlander vs. Warren)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: MLBN

Reasoning: Justin Verlander will make his second start of the season after recovering from a triceps injury. He allowed two runs on three hits over five innings in his debut. He was scheduled to start yesterday but the game was rained out. Adam Warren allowed the Tigers four runs on five hits and four walks over 5.2 innings on April 22. He lasted only 4.2 innings in his last start because of an elevated pitch count (92). In that one he gave up three runs on six hits with three walks vs. Baltimore. Victor Martinez may play tonight after recovering from a knee injury. Miguel Cabrera has a six-game hitting streak (11-for-22, 3 HR, 12 RBIs). New York scored nine runs on Thursday, but it scored just 21 runs over the previous seven contests. Detroit is averaging 5.00 rpg this season and 5.10 rpg in its last five vs. RH.

Record: 382-297-13 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +239.01% 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

MLB: Thursday's 7 p.m. ET plays

Play: Washington +102 (Archer vs. Fister)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Nationals were shut out on Wednesday, but they scored 16 runs on 23 hits on Tuesday. Bryce Harper is 13-for-28 in his last eight, and Denard Span (11-for-30 in his last seven) could return to the lineup after missing Wednesday's contest because of back tightness. Chris Archer lost his lone lifetime appearance against Washington, giving up three runs over six innings. Tampa Bay scores 0.60 fewer rpg vs. RH. Doug Fister has a 3.72 ERA at home and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his seven starts. He gave up just two hits over six scoreless innings in his final rehab start at Double-A Harrisburg on Friday. Fister has a 2.88 ERA in six appearances (five starts) lifetime against the Rays.


Play: N.Y. Mets +1.5 -135 (Colon vs. Dickey)

Time: 7:07 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Mets would be 45-22 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Toronto would be 29-38 if it gave 1.5 rpg. Bartolo Colon is attempting to become the National League's second 10-game winner. He won his third in four starts on Friday when he allowed two runs over six innings against Atlanta. Edwin Encarnacion is 4-for-16 and Jose Bautista is 2-for-11 lifetime vs. Colon. R.A. Dickey is winless in his last four after allowing four runs in six innings Saturday against Boston. Dickey has a 5.29 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The Blue Jays are hitting 52 points lower and are scoring 1.15 fewer rpg vs. RH. New York's bullpen has a 3.07 ERA and Toronto's relievers have a 3.38 ERA.


Record: 382-295-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +260.65%





Wednesday, June 17, 2015

MLB: Wednesday's play

Play: St. Louis/Minnesota over 7.5 +105 (Martinez vs. Milone)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Twins average 5.03 runs per game at home and those games average a total of 8.72 runs. Tommy Milone has a 7.71 ERA at home and the over is 8-0 in his last eight contests featuring totals of 7.5-8 runs. At night Milone has a 5.94 ERA, and he allowed four earned runs in six innings in his other appearance against the Cardinals. Carlos Martinez has been brilliant during the day (1.93 ERA), but he's struggled at night (4.14 ERA). Minnesota's bullpen has a 3.89 ERA overall and a 4.72 ERA in its last five. Games umpired by Joe West this season have averaged 8.80 runs and the over has cashed in 10 of 15. Since the beginning of 2003, West's tilts have averaged between 8.28 and 10.32 runs.

Record: 382-294-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +271.80%









Tuesday, June 16, 2015

NBA: Tuesday's play

Play: Golden State/Cleveland over 194 -107

Time: 9 p.m. ET

TV: ABC

Reasoning: The teams combined for 195 points in Game 5 despite the Cavaliers shooting less than 40 percent from the field and the Warriors hitting just 58.8% from the line. Golden State games average 207.6 points overall and 206.9 points on the road. Cleveland contests average 200.3 points overall and 199.5 points at home. Both teams are well above average from behind the arc. I expect David Blatt to change up his gameplan a little bit in this one and get Timofey Mozgov more minutes. The 7-footer played less than 10 minutes on Sunday and attempted just one shot after scored 28 points in Game 4. I also don't think J.R. Smith will go scoreless in the final 33 minutes like he did on Sunday. LeBron James (36.6 ppg in the series) and Stephen Curry (26.2 ppg) are doing their part. And Tristan Thompson has recorded double-doubles in three straight.

Record: 380-294-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +255.38%

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Cincinnati +1.5 -165 (Lorenzen vs. Ryan)

Time: 7:08 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Reds would be 40-23 if they were given 1.5 rpg. Detroit would be 23-41 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Tigers are 6-10 since May 27. They are scoring 0.67 fewer rpg vs. RH. Cincinnati is hitting 15 points higher and is scoring one run more per game vs. LH. It is scoring two more rpg vs. southpaws at home and it's averaging 4.55 rpg over its last 10. Reds relievers have a 3.00 ERA in their last five. And Detroit has never seen Michael Lorenzen.

 Record: 380-294-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +255.38%







Monday, June 15, 2015

MLB: Monday's 8:15 p.m. ET play

Play: Minnesota/St. Louis over 7 +105 (May vs. Lackey)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Trevor May will face a Cardinals team that is hitting 44 points higher and is scoring a half-run more per game vs. RH. Opponents are batting .339 against May when they have RISP. John Lackey has allowed 22 hits in his last 11 innings. He allowed 10 runs in four innings in his last turn.

Record: 379-293-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +255.06%

MLB: Monday's 7:05 p.m. ET play

Play: Chi. White Sox/Pittsburgh over 7 +103 (Rodon vs. Liriano)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Carlos Rodon has a 1.55 WHIP. Chicago relievers have a 3.94 ERA overall and 4.75 ERA on the road. Starling Marte went 9-for-16 over the weekend with three three-hit games. He needs one more homer to match his career-high for a season. Josh Harrison is 7-for-16 over his last four games. Francisco Liriano has a 4.99 ERA in 15 lifetime appearances (11 starts) against the White Sox.


Record: 379-293-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +255.06%

Friday, June 12, 2015

No plays for Saturday or Sunday

Subscribers have been credited two additional days.

Record: 379-293-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +255.06%

MLB: Friday's play

Play: Boston -107 (Hutchison vs. Kelly)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Drew Hutchison is 5-1 but he's really benefited from run support (6.7 rpg). He has a 4.91 ERA and Boston scored six runs on nine hits (and drew five walks) in four innings against him on April 28. Toronto's bullpen has a 3.70 ERA overall and a 4.60 ERA on the road. Red Sox relievers have a 1.12 ERA in their last five and a 2.88 mark at home. Joe Kelly has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Blue Jays are hitting 53 points lower and are scoring about one fewer rpg vs. RH.

Record: 379-292-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +266.04%

Thursday, June 11, 2015

NBA: Thursday's plays

Play: Golden State -2.5 -107 and Golden State/Cleveland over 193 -102

Time: 9 p.m. ET

TV: ABC

Reasoning: Warriors games average 207.9 points overall and 207.4 points on the road. Cavaliers contests average 201.5 points overall and 199.9 points at home. Only two of the 100 Golden State totals this season have been this low and just nine of Cleveland's 99 totals have been this low. Both teams are above average shooting in all three categories. But the Warriors also are better than the Cavs in all three shooting categories. Additionally, Golden State has the deeper bench and has sizable advantages in steals and blocks. The Warriors have outscored opponents by 9.5 ppg overall and 5.8 ppg on the road. LeBron James has been spectacular, but can he really keep averaging 41 points, 12 rebounds and 8.3 assists in this series? After Tuesday's triumph Matthew Dellavedova (severe dehydration) was taken via ambulance to a hospital where he spent the night getting IV treatments. Cleveland already is without point guard Kyrie Irving (knee), and Iman Shumpert needed an MRI Wednesday for his shoulder. Golden State got a nice contribution in Game 3 from David Lee (11 points in 13 minutes). I like Stephen Curry (17 points on Tuesday) and Klay Thompson (14 points on Tuesday) to bounce back. The same goes for Harrison Barnes, who went scoreless after going 0-for-8 from the field in Game 3.

Record: 378-291-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +266.76% 

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

MLB: Wednesday's 12:35 p.m. ET play

Play: Philadelphia/Cincinnati under 8.5 +105 (Williams vs. Moscot)

Time: 12:35 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Reds games average 8.53 runs. Phillies games average 7.82 runs. Cincinnati is hitting .238 and is scoring 1.03 less rpg vs. RH. It hasn't seen Jerome Williams since 2006. Philadelphia is hitting .227 and is scoring 3.17 rpg vs. RH. Reds starter Jon Moscot allowed four runs in his Major League debut on Friday, but that was early on in the game and he rebounded by retiring 11 of the final 12 batters he faced. Moscot allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his nine starts at Triple-A Louisville before being called up. Brandon Phillips left Tuesday's game with a strained left groin and is not expected to play today. Chase Utley is 0-for-16 in his last five games. And Philadelphia's bullpen has a 2.27 ERA in its last 10 contests and a 2.00 ERA in its last five.

Record: 377-291-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +255.56% 

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

MLB: Tuesday's plays

Play: Seattle/Cleveland over 7 +100 (Elias vs. Kluber)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Games at Progressive Field average 9.89 runs. Mariners road contests average 8.44 runs. Seattle relievers have a 4.54 ERA away from home. And the over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings at Cleveland. The Indians are hitting .281 in their last 10 games vs. LH. They tagged Roenis Elias for four runs on five hits and four walks over 5.1 IP two starts back. Elias is now 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in two career outings against the Tribe. And Corey Kluber allowed four runs on nine hits in losing his last start.


Play: Atlanta +1.5 -145 (Shields vs. Foltynewicz)

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Braves would be 37-20 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. San Diego would be 23-36 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Padres are hitting 13 points lower and are scoring a half-run less per game vs. RH. Atlanta is hitting 25 points higher and is scoring 1.76 more rpg vs. RH. James Shields has had a good season, but much of his 7-0 record can be attributed to the 6.0 rpg his team has provided during those starts. Shields has allowed a National League-high 15 homers. Mike Foltynewicz has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. And San Diego has never faced him.








Record: 376-290-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +258.99% 

Sunday, June 7, 2015

No plays for Monday

Subscribers have been credited another day.

Record: 376-290-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +258.99% 

MLB: Sunday's play

Play: St. Louis +1.5 -165 (Lynn vs. Greinke)

Time: 8:08 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Reasoning: The Cardinals would be 46-10 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. Los Angeles would be 25-31 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs in 13 of their last 21 games. They have scored a total of 16 runs in their last nine meetings with St. Louis. Lance Lynn didn't allow a run in his last start, blanking Milwaukee and allowing just five hits (all singles) and one walk over 7.2 innings. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of his last 11 turns. Zack Greinke gave up five runs on 10 hits during his last go-around. The Cardinals have allowed a total of 10 runs in their last seven contests. St. Louis is hitting 37 points higher and is scoring 0.69 more rpg vs. RH. The Cards are scoring 5.09 rpg over their last five vs. RH, and their bullpen hasn't allowed an earned run in their last five overall. Dodgers relievers have a 5.76 ERA in their last 10 and a 6.55 ERA in their last five. L.A. also is hitting 19 points lower and is scoring 1.30 less rpg in its last 10 vs. RH.

Record: 375-290-13 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +252.58% 

Saturday, June 6, 2015

MLB: Saturday's 10:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Tampa Bay/Seattle over 6.5 -120

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Alex Colome has a 5.05 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He allowed five runs on nine hits over six innings in his last go-around. He has given up seven homers in seven starts. Felix Hernandez gave up seven runs in 4.2 IP in his last start. In the last 10 games Rays relievers have a 3.94 ERA and the Mariners' bullpen has a 3.78 ERA. Tampa Bay games average 7.20 runs and Seattle games average 7.55 runs. Contests called by umpire John Tumpane average 9.11 runs.

Record: 375-289-13 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +263.48% 

Friday, June 5, 2015

MLB: Friday's 8:10 p.m. ET play

Play: Texas/Kansas City over 8 +100

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Rangers games average 9.22 runs and Royals games average 8.16 runs. Against RH Texas is hitting .311 and is scoring 7.03 rpg over its last 10. In its last five contests vs. RH, the Rangers are hitting .364 and are scoring 8.53 runs. Chi Chi Gonzalez allowed zero runs on two hits over 5.2 IP in his major-league debut, but he also walked five. Gonzalez had a 4.15 ERA at Triple-A Round Rock before he was called up. Edinson Volquez allowed three runs in 5.2 IP in his last start. He allowed the Rangers four runs on six hits over five innings on May 12. Prince Fielder leads the AL in hitting (.358) and has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games. Shin-Soo Choo went 5-for-11 in his last series (vs. the White Sox). Texas relievers have a 4.05 ERA on the road and a 4.12 ERA overall.

Record: 375-287-13 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +286.68%

MLB: Friday's 7:35 p.m. ET play

Play: Pittsburgh/Atlanta under 7.5 -115

Time: 7:35 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Charlie Morton has a 1.93 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over two starts. He has induced 36 groundballs in 14 innings. He has a 2.57 ERA in three career starts against the Braves. Williams Perez hasn't allowed more than a run in three turns since moving into the rotation. He allowed just four hits in seven scoreless innings on Saturday at San Francisco. Pirates relievers have a 2.67 ERA overall, a 2.35 ERA on the road, a 1.65 ERA in their last 10 and a 1.29 ERA in their last five.

Record: 375-287-13 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +286.68%

Thursday, June 4, 2015

MLB: Thursday's play

Play: Baltimore/Houston over 7 -125 (Chen vs. Keuchel)

Time: 2:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Both teams hit better against southpaws. The Orioles are scoring 4.80 rpg vs. LH overall and are batting .346 against them in their last five. The Astros are hitting .302 against LH in their last five and .315 against them in their last 10. Wei-Lin Chen has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in his last three starts. On May 25 he allowed Houston three runs on 11 hits over five innings. His ERA is nearly a run higher in night contests. Dallas Keuchel pitched against Baltimore on May 25 and he absorbed his lone loss of 2015 when he was charged with a season-high four runs and two homers. Keuchel also has fared better in day games. The O's bullpen has a 4.97 ERA in its last five. Games for both teams average 8.38 and 8.09 runs, respectively.

Record: 375-286-13 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +298.64%


Wednesday, June 3, 2015

MLB: Wednesday's play

Play: Cincinnati +127 (Leake vs. Hamels)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I took Philadelphia with a run and a hook on Tuesday, but I like the Reds to exact some revenge here. Prior to the Phillies' comeback win in Game 1, they had dropped seven straight. I also think Mike Leake can get right against a Philadelphia team that is hitting 42 points lower and is scoring 3.07 rpg against RH. The Phils are hitting .195 in their last five vs. RH and are scoring 1.83 rpg in their last five overall. Cincinnati is hitting 19 points higher and is scoring 1.30 more rpg vs. LH. In their last five contests facing southpaws the Reds are hitting .343 and are scoring 8.64 rpg. Cincinnati relievers have a 1.76 ERA in their last five and have a 2.35 ERA in their last 10. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 4.15 ERA in its last 10.

Record: 375-285-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +310.97% 

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

MLB: Tuesday's play

Play: Philadelphia +1.5 -120 (Cueto vs. O'Sullivan)

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Johnny Cueto (elbow) hasn't pitched since May 19 and he went 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA last month. He has a 7.23 ERA in four starts lifetime against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. As a team the Reds are 0-7-1 in their last eight series at Philadelphia. Sean O'Sullivan has started one game against Cincinnati (in 2013) and he allowed one run in six innings in that one. The Reds are 9-16 on the road and the Phillies are 12-13 at home. Cincinnati would be 14-35 if it gave 1.5 runs per game. Philadelphia would be 27-25 if it was given 1.5 rpg. The Reds are hitting 20 points lower and are scoring 1.37 less rpg vs. RH. Also, Cincinnati's bullpen is atrocious (4.42 ERA).

Record: 374-285-13 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +300.94%