Play: Butler/Villanova over 132 -105
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning:
I say the first to 80 points wins. Both squads shoot well and they collect offensive boards and steals and that should lead
to easy buckets. The Wildcats are favored by 11 but I think the Bulldogs
can hang with them enough to make this a shootout. Butler has wins over
North Carolina and Georgetown. Nova should have leading scorer Darrun
Hilliard (concussion) back after a one-game absence. Even without Hilliard the Wildcats still
managed to put up 92 points in their last contest. They shoot 48 percent
and are averaging 77.9 ppg with five guys averaging between 12.6 and
9.4 points. The Bulldogs have six players scoring between 16.6 and 7.1 points.
Record: 237-180-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +137.97%
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
NCAAB: Wednesday's Noon ET play
Play: St. John's -1 -105
Time: Noon ET
Reasoning: Seton Hall had no problem playing without Isaiah Whitehead (foot) on Saturday against Maine, but it will have a problem without him on Wednesday against the Red Storm, who are ranked No. 17 in the country. St. John's has won seven straight and has outscored opponents by 16.6 ppg during that stretch. No team has reached 60 points against the Red Storm in those contests. Whitehead, who is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his foot, is his team's second-leading scorer (11.9 ppg) and top assist man. I doubt Jaren Sina will be able to pick up the slack for Whitehead, as Sina went seven straight games without scoring in double figures before collecting 13 against Maine. St. John's has won the last three meetings and boasts four double-digit scorers. And its starting center, Chris Obekpa, averages 7.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 blocks.
Record: 237-180-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +137.97%
Time: Noon ET
Reasoning: Seton Hall had no problem playing without Isaiah Whitehead (foot) on Saturday against Maine, but it will have a problem without him on Wednesday against the Red Storm, who are ranked No. 17 in the country. St. John's has won seven straight and has outscored opponents by 16.6 ppg during that stretch. No team has reached 60 points against the Red Storm in those contests. Whitehead, who is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his foot, is his team's second-leading scorer (11.9 ppg) and top assist man. I doubt Jaren Sina will be able to pick up the slack for Whitehead, as Sina went seven straight games without scoring in double figures before collecting 13 against Maine. St. John's has won the last three meetings and boasts four double-digit scorers. And its starting center, Chris Obekpa, averages 7.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 blocks.
Record: 237-180-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +137.97%
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
NBA: Tuesday's play
Play: San Antonio/Memphis under 194.5 -105
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Spurs will have to make up for the combined 32.2 ppg put up by Tony Parker (hamstring) and Kawhi Leonard (hand). For this one the Grizzlies won't have Zach Randolph (knee) and his 16.1 ppg. Memphis doesn't shoot many threes and makes just 5.7 of them per game. San Antonio gives up just 95.1 ppg on the road and the Grizzlies give up only 97.6 ppg overall. Both teams are above average overall in opponents' field goal percentage and they are good at defensive rebounding. The over has hit in nine of the last 10 meetings, but only one of those last 10 saw a total as high as 194.5. The average total over that period was 186.5.
Record: 236-180-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +131.36%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Spurs will have to make up for the combined 32.2 ppg put up by Tony Parker (hamstring) and Kawhi Leonard (hand). For this one the Grizzlies won't have Zach Randolph (knee) and his 16.1 ppg. Memphis doesn't shoot many threes and makes just 5.7 of them per game. San Antonio gives up just 95.1 ppg on the road and the Grizzlies give up only 97.6 ppg overall. Both teams are above average overall in opponents' field goal percentage and they are good at defensive rebounding. The over has hit in nine of the last 10 meetings, but only one of those last 10 saw a total as high as 194.5. The average total over that period was 186.5.
Record: 236-180-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +131.36%
Monday, December 29, 2014
NCAAF: Monday's plays
Plays: Texas A&M +1.5 -110 and Texas A&M/West Virginia over 65 -110
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a lot of points, but not for a game between these teams. Both squads score an average of more than 33.0 ppg. Aggies road games average 72.2 ppg. Each team ranks in the top 12 nationally in passing, so they can score points in a hurry. Mountaineers QB Skyler Howard has just one start under his belt (he took over for Clint Trickett because of his concussions), but Howard proved his mettle in that debut by throwing for 285 yards and three TDs in the regular-season finale. In relief of Trickett, Howard has completed 57.1% of his passes and has totaled five TDs. He also adds another element that Trickett doesn't possess: an ability to scramble. Howard rushed for 107 yards on 12 carries in three games. Still, I don't think it will be good enough for West Virginia to get by an A&M squad that has won its last three bowl games. The Aggies played the tougher schedule and they knocked off two Top 10 teams on the road. My power rankings say they should be the ones favored by two points. A&M's QB, Kyle Allen, is better than Howard. He hit on 61.3% of his passes since taking over for Kenny Hill. At then-No. 3 Auburn on Nov. 8, Allen led the Aggies to a 41-38 victory when he went 19-for-29 for 277 yards and four TDs vs. one INT. A&M will have to put up big numbers on offense to make up for its defensive inefficiencies. It allowed 449.0 ypg this season, the most in the SEC, and this prompted defensive coordinator Mark Snyder's firing. Linebackers coach Mark Hagan will act as the interim defensive coordinator for this one.
Record: 234-180-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +119.40%
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a lot of points, but not for a game between these teams. Both squads score an average of more than 33.0 ppg. Aggies road games average 72.2 ppg. Each team ranks in the top 12 nationally in passing, so they can score points in a hurry. Mountaineers QB Skyler Howard has just one start under his belt (he took over for Clint Trickett because of his concussions), but Howard proved his mettle in that debut by throwing for 285 yards and three TDs in the regular-season finale. In relief of Trickett, Howard has completed 57.1% of his passes and has totaled five TDs. He also adds another element that Trickett doesn't possess: an ability to scramble. Howard rushed for 107 yards on 12 carries in three games. Still, I don't think it will be good enough for West Virginia to get by an A&M squad that has won its last three bowl games. The Aggies played the tougher schedule and they knocked off two Top 10 teams on the road. My power rankings say they should be the ones favored by two points. A&M's QB, Kyle Allen, is better than Howard. He hit on 61.3% of his passes since taking over for Kenny Hill. At then-No. 3 Auburn on Nov. 8, Allen led the Aggies to a 41-38 victory when he went 19-for-29 for 277 yards and four TDs vs. one INT. A&M will have to put up big numbers on offense to make up for its defensive inefficiencies. It allowed 449.0 ypg this season, the most in the SEC, and this prompted defensive coordinator Mark Snyder's firing. Linebackers coach Mark Hagan will act as the interim defensive coordinator for this one.
Record: 234-180-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +119.40%
Sunday, December 28, 2014
NBA: Sunday's plays
Play: San Antonio -1 -102
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Houston won the first matchup this season, but the Spurs were without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili in that one. Both will play here and although Tony Parker won't, he's had a great replacement in Cory Joseph. In the past two games Joseph has averaged 17.0 points (on 13-of-16 shooting) and five assists. Joseph is averaging 12.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists in his last nine contests. Dwight Howard disappeared in Friday's game, scoring just six points on four FG attempts. The Rockets shoot a ton of threes, but they are below average in three-point shooting percentage and San Antonio doesn't allow many perimeter attempts. Houston also is below average in overall shooting and on free throws and the Spurs are above average in all shooting categories. San Antonio's bench scores nearly twice as many points as the Rockets' bench.
Play: Dallas -4 -105
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Record: 231-176-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +126.86%
NFL: Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET plays
Play: San Francisco -6.5 -110
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Arizona already has a playoff berth in place. The Cardinals will start Ryan Lindley at QB, and he has thrown 225 passes without a TD (an NFL record). Arizona was destroyed by Seattle 35-6 last week. The Cardinals defense is worn down and safety Tyrann Mathieu is playing with a cast on his left hand. The 49ers are gonna want to look good in their home finale and at the same time snap a four-game skid. San Francisco has had an extra day to prepare for this one, and its veteran-laden roster should show up to play. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five in the Bay Area and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. The Cardinals average only 80.7 ypg rushing and San Fran's defense allows just 18.6 ppg.
Plays: Detroit +7.5 -111 and Detroit/Green Bay over 47 -103
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Lions have won four straight and last week they did it in come-from-behind fashion. Detroit ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed (295.9 ypg) and scoring defense (16.8 ppg). The Lions could make the Packers one-dimensional, since they allow a league-best 63.8 ypg rushing. And Eddie Lacy ran for just 36 yards in the first meeting this season. Still, Green Bay averages 41.1 ppg at home, so I expect Detroit to limit them only so much. Aaron Rodgers suffered a strained left calf in last week's tilt with Tampa Bay, but he still has racked up 23 TDs against zero INTs at home in 2014. On offense the Lions have a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson) and their backfield duo of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush is always dangerous. Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and five TDs in the regular-season finale (a 45-41 loss) in 2011. It will be a little chilly (about 20 degrees) in Green Bay on Sunday afternoon but the skies will be clear. The teams that give the Packers the most trouble are the ones that can stop the run. And since Nick Fairley went down before the second half of the season, Detroit has allowed just 52.1 ypg rushing.
Record: 231-176-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +126.86%
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Arizona already has a playoff berth in place. The Cardinals will start Ryan Lindley at QB, and he has thrown 225 passes without a TD (an NFL record). Arizona was destroyed by Seattle 35-6 last week. The Cardinals defense is worn down and safety Tyrann Mathieu is playing with a cast on his left hand. The 49ers are gonna want to look good in their home finale and at the same time snap a four-game skid. San Francisco has had an extra day to prepare for this one, and its veteran-laden roster should show up to play. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five in the Bay Area and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. The Cardinals average only 80.7 ypg rushing and San Fran's defense allows just 18.6 ppg.
Plays: Detroit +7.5 -111 and Detroit/Green Bay over 47 -103
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Lions have won four straight and last week they did it in come-from-behind fashion. Detroit ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed (295.9 ypg) and scoring defense (16.8 ppg). The Lions could make the Packers one-dimensional, since they allow a league-best 63.8 ypg rushing. And Eddie Lacy ran for just 36 yards in the first meeting this season. Still, Green Bay averages 41.1 ppg at home, so I expect Detroit to limit them only so much. Aaron Rodgers suffered a strained left calf in last week's tilt with Tampa Bay, but he still has racked up 23 TDs against zero INTs at home in 2014. On offense the Lions have a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson) and their backfield duo of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush is always dangerous. Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and five TDs in the regular-season finale (a 45-41 loss) in 2011. It will be a little chilly (about 20 degrees) in Green Bay on Sunday afternoon but the skies will be clear. The teams that give the Packers the most trouble are the ones that can stop the run. And since Nick Fairley went down before the second half of the season, Detroit has allowed just 52.1 ypg rushing.
Record: 231-176-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +126.86%
NFL: Sunday's 1 p.m. ET plays
Play: Tennessee +7 -103
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Indianapolis is already locked into the No. 4 seed. Their starters will play, but for how long? The Colts were destroyed by Dallas last week and they rushed for one yard on 10 carries against the Cowboys. Andrew Luck threw for a career-low 109 yards in that one before being removed in the third quarter. This should be Jake Locker's last game for the Titans and he'll want to go out on a positive note. Indianapolis has an average defense (it is allowing 31.0 points per game on the road) and has had trouble with QBs that operate like Locker.
Play: New Orleans/Tampa Bay over 46.5 -106
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The last time these teams tangled they combined for 68 points. The Saints have the NFL's top offense (416.3 ypg) and the league's second-worst defense (390.9 ypg). New Orleans has allowed 400 or more yards in five of its last six contests. The Buccaneers have offensive weapons in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, and both WR should top 1,000 yards. That would be the first time in history a pair of Tampa Bay receivers have achieved that feat. The starters should play for both teams, with each squad wanting to go out on a positive note. The Bucs have extra incentive because they don't want to go winless at home. Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing (4,671 yards) and he is second in completion percentage (69.6, which is seventh-best in league history).
Record: 231-176-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +126.86%
Saturday, December 27, 2014
NCAAF: Saturday's play
Play: Southern Cal -7.5 -110
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: USC has never played in the Holiday Bowl, but with all of the support that the school has in San Diego I think this will be like a home game for the Trojans. Nebraska will have an interim coach, Barney Cotton, running the show in place of fired Bo Pelini. You have two very good offenses going here, with a combined scoring average of 72.5 ppg. But USC is more balanced and I think its linebacking group, led by Hayes Pullard and Su'a Cravens, can keep the Huskers' run game in check. Nebraska's defense has been atrocious in its last three games, allowing 40.3 ppg and 334.7 ypg rushing. The Huskers had the nation's third-best opponents' passer rating (100.6), however eight of the 11 FBS schools they faced finished 51st or worse in pass efficiency. Nebraska needed a 17-point rally in the fourth quarter to get by Iowa in its last contest. The Trojans ended their regular season with a 49-14 triumph of Notre Dame. USC has triplets in QB Cody Kessler, RB Javorius "Buck" Allen and WR Nelson Agholor. Kessler, a junior, racked up 3,505 yards and 36 TDs against just four INTs. He completed 70.7% of his passes and had a school-record passer rating of 168.8 (188.6 passer rating in his last six games). Allen totaled 1,337 rushing yards, topping 100 yards eight times. Agholor hauled in 97 balls for 1,223 yards and 11 TDs. The Trojans played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country while Nebraska played the 62nd-toughest. USC is 32-16 all-time in bowls, excluding two vacated games, and it is 8-2 in its last 10. It also is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowls. The Huskers are 25-25 all-time in bowl games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site contests.
Record: 231-175-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +133.88%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: USC has never played in the Holiday Bowl, but with all of the support that the school has in San Diego I think this will be like a home game for the Trojans. Nebraska will have an interim coach, Barney Cotton, running the show in place of fired Bo Pelini. You have two very good offenses going here, with a combined scoring average of 72.5 ppg. But USC is more balanced and I think its linebacking group, led by Hayes Pullard and Su'a Cravens, can keep the Huskers' run game in check. Nebraska's defense has been atrocious in its last three games, allowing 40.3 ppg and 334.7 ypg rushing. The Huskers had the nation's third-best opponents' passer rating (100.6), however eight of the 11 FBS schools they faced finished 51st or worse in pass efficiency. Nebraska needed a 17-point rally in the fourth quarter to get by Iowa in its last contest. The Trojans ended their regular season with a 49-14 triumph of Notre Dame. USC has triplets in QB Cody Kessler, RB Javorius "Buck" Allen and WR Nelson Agholor. Kessler, a junior, racked up 3,505 yards and 36 TDs against just four INTs. He completed 70.7% of his passes and had a school-record passer rating of 168.8 (188.6 passer rating in his last six games). Allen totaled 1,337 rushing yards, topping 100 yards eight times. Agholor hauled in 97 balls for 1,223 yards and 11 TDs. The Trojans played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country while Nebraska played the 62nd-toughest. USC is 32-16 all-time in bowls, excluding two vacated games, and it is 8-2 in its last 10. It also is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowls. The Huskers are 25-25 all-time in bowl games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site contests.
Record: 231-175-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +133.88%
Friday, December 26, 2014
NBA: Friday's play
Play: Houston +2 -103
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both teams had a Christmas break with three rest days, but which one should that benefit? Well, the Rockets are 3-1 ATS in their last four under that circumstance and Memphis is 0-4 ATS. Houston has won eight of its last 11. The Grizzlies have dropped three straight and have averaged just 93.0 ppg over that span. Two of those losses came at home. The Rockets are 9-2 on the road and have a higher scoring differential in away games. Houston's defense allows just 96.3 ppg, opponents shoot just 43.1% against it and it is forcing 16.5 turnovers per. In its last contest Memphis fell 97-91 to struggling Utah and it was outrebounded 49-34. The Rockets hammered Portland 110-95 on Monday and James Harden totaled 44 points, seven assists and five steals, and he turned the ball over just once. Harden is scoring an NBA-leading and career-best 27.0 ppg and also is putting up career-bests in rebounds (6.2), assists (7.0), steals (2.0), blocks (1.0) and free-throw shooting (88.7%). In his last five road games Harden is averaging 38.2 ppg on 53.2% shooting. Houston got a boost on Monday from newcomer Corey Brewer, who was acquired in a three-team trade last week. He had 12 points, four boards, four assists and five steals in 23 minutes. The Rockets make 11.4 three-pointers per game and the Grizzlies are below average at perimeter defense. Memphis also doesn't shoot many threes, so if it can't get it done inside... Tony Allen (eye) is probable for this one, but he's missed the last four tilts. Zach Randolph (knee) is questionable and he's missed the last two.
Record: 230-175-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.26%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both teams had a Christmas break with three rest days, but which one should that benefit? Well, the Rockets are 3-1 ATS in their last four under that circumstance and Memphis is 0-4 ATS. Houston has won eight of its last 11. The Grizzlies have dropped three straight and have averaged just 93.0 ppg over that span. Two of those losses came at home. The Rockets are 9-2 on the road and have a higher scoring differential in away games. Houston's defense allows just 96.3 ppg, opponents shoot just 43.1% against it and it is forcing 16.5 turnovers per. In its last contest Memphis fell 97-91 to struggling Utah and it was outrebounded 49-34. The Rockets hammered Portland 110-95 on Monday and James Harden totaled 44 points, seven assists and five steals, and he turned the ball over just once. Harden is scoring an NBA-leading and career-best 27.0 ppg and also is putting up career-bests in rebounds (6.2), assists (7.0), steals (2.0), blocks (1.0) and free-throw shooting (88.7%). In his last five road games Harden is averaging 38.2 ppg on 53.2% shooting. Houston got a boost on Monday from newcomer Corey Brewer, who was acquired in a three-team trade last week. He had 12 points, four boards, four assists and five steals in 23 minutes. The Rockets make 11.4 three-pointers per game and the Grizzlies are below average at perimeter defense. Memphis also doesn't shoot many threes, so if it can't get it done inside... Tony Allen (eye) is probable for this one, but he's missed the last four tilts. Zach Randolph (knee) is questionable and he's missed the last two.
Record: 230-175-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.26%
Thursday, December 25, 2014
NBA: Thursday's 10:30 p.m. ET play
Play: L.A. Clippers -1.5 -105
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: On Tuesday Golden State lost by 10 to the Lakers, who didn't have Kobe Bryant. The Warriors have dropped 15 of the last 20 road meetings with the Clippers, with the last three being by an average of 16.6 points. The Clips have won all seven of their home games this month by an average of 14.7 points. Blake Griffin is shooting 52.5% in his last five at home, averaging 29.6 ppg. Chris Paul has averaged 22.9 ppg against the Warriors since joining L.A. in 2011-12, his highest mark against any team during that span. DeAndre Jordan has averaged 16.5 points on 82.8% shooting (not a misprint) in his last four against Golden State. Jordan scored 15 and grabbed 22 rebounds (11 offensive) in his last contest. J.J. Redick is averaging 17.8 points in 13 games this month. And Draymond Green has totaled just eight points and 11 rebounds in his last two tilts.
Record: 229-174-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.58%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: On Tuesday Golden State lost by 10 to the Lakers, who didn't have Kobe Bryant. The Warriors have dropped 15 of the last 20 road meetings with the Clippers, with the last three being by an average of 16.6 points. The Clips have won all seven of their home games this month by an average of 14.7 points. Blake Griffin is shooting 52.5% in his last five at home, averaging 29.6 ppg. Chris Paul has averaged 22.9 ppg against the Warriors since joining L.A. in 2011-12, his highest mark against any team during that span. DeAndre Jordan has averaged 16.5 points on 82.8% shooting (not a misprint) in his last four against Golden State. Jordan scored 15 and grabbed 22 rebounds (11 offensive) in his last contest. J.J. Redick is averaging 17.8 points in 13 games this month. And Draymond Green has totaled just eight points and 11 rebounds in his last two tilts.
Record: 229-174-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.58%
NBA: Thursday's 2:30 p.m. ET play
Play: Oklahoma City/San Antonio under 196.5 -110
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kevin Durant (ankle) is out so that will put more pressure on Russell Westbrook and company to make up for his 22.4 points per game. Without Durant this season, the Thunder are 6-14. They also are 1-10 when they are outscored in the paint. If the Spurs win this one handily, a real possibility, that will only help the under. Still, with Tony Parker (hamstring) and Manu Ginobili (shoulder) dinged, I think the under is a better play than San Antonio -5.5. Oklahoma City is allowing an NBA-low 95.9 ppg and opponents are shooting just 42.6% against the Thunder (second-best in the league). Oklahoma City doesn't shoot many threes (or shoot them well without Durant), so that shouldn't be a concern.
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kevin Durant (ankle) is out so that will put more pressure on Russell Westbrook and company to make up for his 22.4 points per game. Without Durant this season, the Thunder are 6-14. They also are 1-10 when they are outscored in the paint. If the Spurs win this one handily, a real possibility, that will only help the under. Still, with Tony Parker (hamstring) and Manu Ginobili (shoulder) dinged, I think the under is a better play than San Antonio -5.5. Oklahoma City is allowing an NBA-low 95.9 ppg and opponents are shooting just 42.6% against the Thunder (second-best in the league). Oklahoma City doesn't shoot many threes (or shoot them well without Durant), so that shouldn't be a concern.
Record: 229-174-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.58%
Bankroll: +127.58%
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
No plays for Wednesday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 229-174-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.58%
Record: 229-174-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +127.58%
NHL: Tuesday's play
Play: Edmonton -123
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Oilers still haven't won under new coach Todd Nelson, but they appear to be getting better offensively. They scored five against against a hot Dallas team on Sunday and their goals have increased from one to three to five under Nelson. Under former coach Dallas Eakins, Edmonton scored just seven goals in his final five contests at the helm. Phoenix has allowed 35 goals in its last eight games (4.38 per). On Monday the Coyotes were destroyed 7-1 at Vancouver. They scored one goal on 39 shots. Phoenix also is horrific at killing penalties (73.9%, second-worst in the NHL). Opponents have scored five times in their last 11 power-play chances against the Coyotes.
Record: 229-173-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +134.62%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Oilers still haven't won under new coach Todd Nelson, but they appear to be getting better offensively. They scored five against against a hot Dallas team on Sunday and their goals have increased from one to three to five under Nelson. Under former coach Dallas Eakins, Edmonton scored just seven goals in his final five contests at the helm. Phoenix has allowed 35 goals in its last eight games (4.38 per). On Monday the Coyotes were destroyed 7-1 at Vancouver. They scored one goal on 39 shots. Phoenix also is horrific at killing penalties (73.9%, second-worst in the NHL). Opponents have scored five times in their last 11 power-play chances against the Coyotes.
Record: 229-173-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +134.62%
Sunday, December 21, 2014
No plays for Monday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 229-173-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +134.62%
Record: 229-173-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +134.62%
NFL: Sunday's play
Play: Seattle/Arizona over 36 -110
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average more points than this both overall and in the home/away splits. I like the Seahawks to get an early lead, to get their usual 168.8 yards per game rushing and to soften up the Cardinals' D and set up for big pass plays. Then I like Arizona to throw the ball in an attempt to catch up. And, although the Cardinals will have Ryan Lindley at QB, they also have had 10 days to prepare for this contest. It doesn't take much to eclipse 36 points in today's NFL. And the over has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings at Arizona.
Record: 228-173-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +128.39%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average more points than this both overall and in the home/away splits. I like the Seahawks to get an early lead, to get their usual 168.8 yards per game rushing and to soften up the Cardinals' D and set up for big pass plays. Then I like Arizona to throw the ball in an attempt to catch up. And, although the Cardinals will have Ryan Lindley at QB, they also have had 10 days to prepare for this contest. It doesn't take much to eclipse 36 points in today's NFL. And the over has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings at Arizona.
Record: 228-173-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +128.39%
Saturday, December 20, 2014
NHL: Saturday's play
Play: Washington/New Jersey over 5 -125
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The performances on special teams by both squads are what really stands out to me. The Capitals lead the NHL in power-play scoring (26.1%) and the Devils are seventh (22.2%). Washington is 27th in the league in penalty killing (76.3%) and New Jersey is 25th (77.6%). The Caps are scoring 3.30 goals per game over their last 10, and that's without getting much from Alex Ovechkin (scoreless in eight of his last nine games). Devils G Cory Schneider is expected to start Saturday and he's allowed eight goals over the last 83 shots he's faced.
Record: 228-172-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +135.45%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The performances on special teams by both squads are what really stands out to me. The Capitals lead the NHL in power-play scoring (26.1%) and the Devils are seventh (22.2%). Washington is 27th in the league in penalty killing (76.3%) and New Jersey is 25th (77.6%). The Caps are scoring 3.30 goals per game over their last 10, and that's without getting much from Alex Ovechkin (scoreless in eight of his last nine games). Devils G Cory Schneider is expected to start Saturday and he's allowed eight goals over the last 83 shots he's faced.
Record: 228-172-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +135.45%
Friday, December 19, 2014
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 228-172-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +135.45%
Record: 228-172-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +135.45%
Thursday, December 18, 2014
NBA: Thursday's play
Play: Golden State -2.5 -103
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oklahoma City is running into a buzzsaw here. The Thunder's seven-game winning streak pales in comparison to the Warriors' recent 16-game winning streak that finally ended on Tuesday at Memphis, when Golden State fell 105-98 following its second-worst shooting performance of the season (41.1%). Against the Grizzlies Stephen Curry went 1-for-10 on threes and that shouldn't happen again. OKC has been winning with defense since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have recovered from injuries, but the Warriors' offense should be too much. At home they average 109.2 points per game, shoot 50.6% from the floor, 39.0% on threes and 78.0% from the line. They have five guys who average double-digits in scoring. The Thunder's win over Sacramento on Tuesday was deceiving, as they trailed in the fourth quater after blowing a 16-point lead.
Record: 227-172-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +128.79%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oklahoma City is running into a buzzsaw here. The Thunder's seven-game winning streak pales in comparison to the Warriors' recent 16-game winning streak that finally ended on Tuesday at Memphis, when Golden State fell 105-98 following its second-worst shooting performance of the season (41.1%). Against the Grizzlies Stephen Curry went 1-for-10 on threes and that shouldn't happen again. OKC has been winning with defense since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have recovered from injuries, but the Warriors' offense should be too much. At home they average 109.2 points per game, shoot 50.6% from the floor, 39.0% on threes and 78.0% from the line. They have five guys who average double-digits in scoring. The Thunder's win over Sacramento on Tuesday was deceiving, as they trailed in the fourth quater after blowing a 16-point lead.
Record: 227-172-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +128.79%
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
NBA: Wednesday's play
Play: Orlando/Boston over 200 -105
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Celtics have gone against five totals lower than 200 this season and the over cashed in every one of those contests. Boston games average nearly 210 points both overall and in the home/away splits. The Magic have four players (Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier) averaging at least 14.0 points. The Celts have four players averaging double-figures in scoring (Jeff Green, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk) and five additional members averaging between 8.0 and 9.1 points. Olynyk came off the bench and dropped 30 points on Philadelphia on Monday. Both teams are above average shooting the ball and below average in field goal defense.
Record: 226-172-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +122.44%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Celtics have gone against five totals lower than 200 this season and the over cashed in every one of those contests. Boston games average nearly 210 points both overall and in the home/away splits. The Magic have four players (Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier) averaging at least 14.0 points. The Celts have four players averaging double-figures in scoring (Jeff Green, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk) and five additional members averaging between 8.0 and 9.1 points. Olynyk came off the bench and dropped 30 points on Philadelphia on Monday. Both teams are above average shooting the ball and below average in field goal defense.
Record: 226-172-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +122.44%
Monday, December 15, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 226-172-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +122.44%
Record: 226-172-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +122.44%
NBA: Monday's play
Play: Indiana -5 -105
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Pacers to get right on Monday night. They have beaten the Lakers in four of the last five meetings, including wins of 20 and 12 points in the two matchups last season. Indiana had a furious comeback fall short against Portland on Saturday, but it was down by 29 at one point. Los Angeles won its second straight road game on Sunday, but that was against a lowly and injury-decimated Minnesota team. The Lakers are 1-4 this season with zero rest days and they are getting outscored by 12 points (and are allowing 111.6 points per game) in that scenario. And after the win against the Timberwolves Kobe Bryant was complaining about aches and pains. Bryant was 7-for-20 from the field against Minnesota and he was held scoreless in 12 minutes of play the last time he faced the Pacers. Indiana is 5-2 against below-average teams, and here it has a big rebounding advantage and a deeper bench.
Record: 225-172-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +116.26%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like the Pacers to get right on Monday night. They have beaten the Lakers in four of the last five meetings, including wins of 20 and 12 points in the two matchups last season. Indiana had a furious comeback fall short against Portland on Saturday, but it was down by 29 at one point. Los Angeles won its second straight road game on Sunday, but that was against a lowly and injury-decimated Minnesota team. The Lakers are 1-4 this season with zero rest days and they are getting outscored by 12 points (and are allowing 111.6 points per game) in that scenario. And after the win against the Timberwolves Kobe Bryant was complaining about aches and pains. Bryant was 7-for-20 from the field against Minnesota and he was held scoreless in 12 minutes of play the last time he faced the Pacers. Indiana is 5-2 against below-average teams, and here it has a big rebounding advantage and a deeper bench.
Record: 225-172-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +116.26%
Sunday, December 14, 2014
No plays for Sunday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 225-172-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +116.26%
Saturday, December 13, 2014
NCAAF: Saturday's play
Play: Army/Navy over 54.5 -105
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Five of the last six Army games have gone over, including the last two which were totals of 71.5 and 67.5. The last four Navy games have gone over, and the Midshipmen have scored at last 39 points in each of their last five. Games for both squads average about 60 points both overall and in the home/away splits. Navy is second in the nation in rushing (357.8 yards per game) and Army ranks sixth (305.5 ypg). Neither team has been particularly adept at stopping the run this season, with each allowing nearly 200 ypg rushing. On the road the Black Knights are giving up 224.8 ypg rushing.
Record: 225-171-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +122.95%
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Five of the last six Army games have gone over, including the last two which were totals of 71.5 and 67.5. The last four Navy games have gone over, and the Midshipmen have scored at last 39 points in each of their last five. Games for both squads average about 60 points both overall and in the home/away splits. Navy is second in the nation in rushing (357.8 yards per game) and Army ranks sixth (305.5 ypg). Neither team has been particularly adept at stopping the run this season, with each allowing nearly 200 ypg rushing. On the road the Black Knights are giving up 224.8 ypg rushing.
Record: 225-171-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +122.95%
Friday, December 12, 2014
NBA: Friday's play
Play: Chicago -2 -110
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Portland has won seven straight in the series, but Derrick Rose only played in two of those contests. In the games he played, Rose averaged 28 points. He'll start on Friday night after pouring in 23 points in 24 minutes in Wednesday's 105-80 rout of Brooklyn. The Blazers lost to lowly Minnesota on Wednesday and looked terrible in the process. They got only 23 points from their frontcourt and shot just 38.8%. Portland went 10-of-35 on threes had quarters of 16 and 15 points. LaMarcus Aldridge totaled just 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting against the Timberwolves, and he has averaged just 11 points on 27.9% shooting in his last three tilts with the Bulls. Chicago rookie forward Nikola Mirotic had 24 points and 11 rebounds on Nov. 21 against the Blazers. The Bulls lost that one 105-87, but Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich didn't play. Gasol has recorded seven consecutive double-doubles. Portland has played the NBA's third-easiest schedule this season.
Record: 224-171-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +117.03%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Portland has won seven straight in the series, but Derrick Rose only played in two of those contests. In the games he played, Rose averaged 28 points. He'll start on Friday night after pouring in 23 points in 24 minutes in Wednesday's 105-80 rout of Brooklyn. The Blazers lost to lowly Minnesota on Wednesday and looked terrible in the process. They got only 23 points from their frontcourt and shot just 38.8%. Portland went 10-of-35 on threes had quarters of 16 and 15 points. LaMarcus Aldridge totaled just 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting against the Timberwolves, and he has averaged just 11 points on 27.9% shooting in his last three tilts with the Bulls. Chicago rookie forward Nikola Mirotic had 24 points and 11 rebounds on Nov. 21 against the Blazers. The Bulls lost that one 105-87, but Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich didn't play. Gasol has recorded seven consecutive double-doubles. Portland has played the NBA's third-easiest schedule this season.
Record: 224-171-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +117.03%
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 224-171-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +117.03%
Record: 224-171-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +117.03%
NBA: Wednesday's 8 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. ET plays
Play: New Orleans/Dallas under 209 -105
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mavericks have won nine straight in the series and have held the Pelicans to 95.4 points per game during that run. Should we see a Dallas blowout here, I think it will only help the under. The same goes for New Orleans' improved defensive play, as the Pelicans have allowed just 90.0 ppg over their last two. Both teams played on Tuesday and, looking at past results, you'll see that New Orleans is giving up 91.0 ppg in five contests following no rest and Dallas is allowing 96.2 ppg in four tilts in that same scenario. Both figures are far below the defensive averages when there is rest between games. The average scores seen by this officiating crew of Zach Zarba, Leroy Richardson and Matt Boland are 194.0, 201.1 and 206.6, respectively. The Mavs scored only 43 after halftime on Tuesday on 34.9% shooting. Dirk Nowitzki went 4-for-17 from the field while Monta Ellis shot 1-of-11 and finished with two points while he played through nagging pain in his shooting arm. Tyson Chandler also has fallen off in his last two, averaging just 3.5 points after producing 14.3 ppg in his previous six contests.
Play: San Antonio -10 -110
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think New York is going to get blown out tonight. The Knicks have lost nine straight and are giving up 104.1 ppg on the road. They've dropped 10 straight on the road and could be without Carmelo Anthony (knee) tonight. If he's out New York will have just two players (Amar'e Stoudemire and J.R. Smith) who average double digits in scoring. The Spurs average 104.3 ppg at home and they should destroy the Knicks on the glass and bomb them from behind the arc. Tim Duncan has posted a double-double or triple-double in four straight games.
Record: 223-170-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +117.62%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mavericks have won nine straight in the series and have held the Pelicans to 95.4 points per game during that run. Should we see a Dallas blowout here, I think it will only help the under. The same goes for New Orleans' improved defensive play, as the Pelicans have allowed just 90.0 ppg over their last two. Both teams played on Tuesday and, looking at past results, you'll see that New Orleans is giving up 91.0 ppg in five contests following no rest and Dallas is allowing 96.2 ppg in four tilts in that same scenario. Both figures are far below the defensive averages when there is rest between games. The average scores seen by this officiating crew of Zach Zarba, Leroy Richardson and Matt Boland are 194.0, 201.1 and 206.6, respectively. The Mavs scored only 43 after halftime on Tuesday on 34.9% shooting. Dirk Nowitzki went 4-for-17 from the field while Monta Ellis shot 1-of-11 and finished with two points while he played through nagging pain in his shooting arm. Tyson Chandler also has fallen off in his last two, averaging just 3.5 points after producing 14.3 ppg in his previous six contests.
Play: San Antonio -10 -110
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think New York is going to get blown out tonight. The Knicks have lost nine straight and are giving up 104.1 ppg on the road. They've dropped 10 straight on the road and could be without Carmelo Anthony (knee) tonight. If he's out New York will have just two players (Amar'e Stoudemire and J.R. Smith) who average double digits in scoring. The Spurs average 104.3 ppg at home and they should destroy the Knicks on the glass and bomb them from behind the arc. Tim Duncan has posted a double-double or triple-double in four straight games.
Record: 223-170-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +117.62%
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
NBA: Tuesday's plays
Plays: Memphis -3.5 -104 and Dallas/Memphis under 203.5 -107
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Here you have the old irresistible force vs. immovable object scenario with the NBA's best offense (Dallas) vs. the best defense (Memphis). I'll take the latter. The Grizzlies are no slouches on offense either, shooting 47.2%, fifth-best in the league. On Sunday they shot 58.9%, with the guard trio of Mike Conley, Courtney Lee and Tony Allen shooting a collective 21-for-25 from the field and nailing all five three-point attempts. In that one against Miami, Memphis got 20 points and 12 rebounds (in 24 minutes) from reserve Jon Leuer, who has cleared 50% shooting in 11 of his last 12 appearances. Lee is third in the NBA from behind the arc (52.8%) and he is averaging a career-high 12.6 points per game. Prior to Friday's loss to the Spurs, the Grizzlies won 22 straight at home. The Mavericks have played the league's second-easiest schedule and they are 1-3 against Top 10 teams. At home Memphis shoots 49.4% from the floor and 39.9% on threes. Dallas allows opponents 39.9% shooting from behind the arc. The Grizzlies are better at the line and on the boards. They also allow just 93.4 ppg. Memphis is 4-2 vs. the spread when favored by 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavs score 105.5 ppg on the road, but that is down from 110.6 overall. This is the highest total the Grizzlies have faced this season, and their game set at 202.5 vs. the L.A. Lakers on Nov. 26 featured 192 points.
Play: Sacramento +2.5 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Kings are without DeMarcus Cousins, but are they really going to need him against the Lakers? My power rankings say Sacramento would be favored by six with Cousins in the lineup. Here they are catching two and a hook against a Los Angeles team that is 3-14 vs. Top 16 teams. Kobe Bryant is tied for the league lead in scoring (25.2 points per game), but that's not all that difficult when you take all of the shots. Bryant is shooting just 38.9% and he was held to 14 points on 6-of-18 shooting in a 17-point home loss to New Orleans on Sunday. He is scoring just 19.3 ppg this month. Jordan Hill has cooled off as well, failing to record a double-double in the last three contests after reaching that status in eight of his previous 10. Rudy Gay has picked up Cousins' scoring slack by averaging 22.5 points in the six games that Cousins has missed. The Kings got a lift from Nik Stauskas in Monday's 101-92 victory vs. Utah when the rookie recorded 15 points and eight rebounds. The Lake Show has lost three straight. Against the Pelicans Los Angeles shot just 40%. The Lakers are 2-9 at home and are averaging just 92.7 ppg and are giving up 109.3 ppg during their three-game skid. Getting his first start, Sacramento F Reggie Evans secured 13 rebounds against the Jazz, who the Kings held to 40.5% shooting. Gay has scored 63 points in his last two tries against Los Angeles and Darren Collison, who had 16 against Utah, has averaged 19.3 ppg in his last three vs. the Lakers. Los Angeles allows 48.2% shooting overall and 38.5% from behind the arc. The Kings are great from the line and should dominate the Lakers on the glass. Los Angeles has been favored in exactly one game this season and it lost that contest to Minnesota on Nov. 28.
Record: 222-168-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +124.62%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Here you have the old irresistible force vs. immovable object scenario with the NBA's best offense (Dallas) vs. the best defense (Memphis). I'll take the latter. The Grizzlies are no slouches on offense either, shooting 47.2%, fifth-best in the league. On Sunday they shot 58.9%, with the guard trio of Mike Conley, Courtney Lee and Tony Allen shooting a collective 21-for-25 from the field and nailing all five three-point attempts. In that one against Miami, Memphis got 20 points and 12 rebounds (in 24 minutes) from reserve Jon Leuer, who has cleared 50% shooting in 11 of his last 12 appearances. Lee is third in the NBA from behind the arc (52.8%) and he is averaging a career-high 12.6 points per game. Prior to Friday's loss to the Spurs, the Grizzlies won 22 straight at home. The Mavericks have played the league's second-easiest schedule and they are 1-3 against Top 10 teams. At home Memphis shoots 49.4% from the floor and 39.9% on threes. Dallas allows opponents 39.9% shooting from behind the arc. The Grizzlies are better at the line and on the boards. They also allow just 93.4 ppg. Memphis is 4-2 vs. the spread when favored by 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavs score 105.5 ppg on the road, but that is down from 110.6 overall. This is the highest total the Grizzlies have faced this season, and their game set at 202.5 vs. the L.A. Lakers on Nov. 26 featured 192 points.
Play: Sacramento +2.5 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Kings are without DeMarcus Cousins, but are they really going to need him against the Lakers? My power rankings say Sacramento would be favored by six with Cousins in the lineup. Here they are catching two and a hook against a Los Angeles team that is 3-14 vs. Top 16 teams. Kobe Bryant is tied for the league lead in scoring (25.2 points per game), but that's not all that difficult when you take all of the shots. Bryant is shooting just 38.9% and he was held to 14 points on 6-of-18 shooting in a 17-point home loss to New Orleans on Sunday. He is scoring just 19.3 ppg this month. Jordan Hill has cooled off as well, failing to record a double-double in the last three contests after reaching that status in eight of his previous 10. Rudy Gay has picked up Cousins' scoring slack by averaging 22.5 points in the six games that Cousins has missed. The Kings got a lift from Nik Stauskas in Monday's 101-92 victory vs. Utah when the rookie recorded 15 points and eight rebounds. The Lake Show has lost three straight. Against the Pelicans Los Angeles shot just 40%. The Lakers are 2-9 at home and are averaging just 92.7 ppg and are giving up 109.3 ppg during their three-game skid. Getting his first start, Sacramento F Reggie Evans secured 13 rebounds against the Jazz, who the Kings held to 40.5% shooting. Gay has scored 63 points in his last two tries against Los Angeles and Darren Collison, who had 16 against Utah, has averaged 19.3 ppg in his last three vs. the Lakers. Los Angeles allows 48.2% shooting overall and 38.5% from behind the arc. The Kings are great from the line and should dominate the Lakers on the glass. Los Angeles has been favored in exactly one game this season and it lost that contest to Minnesota on Nov. 28.
Record: 222-168-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +124.62%
Monday, December 8, 2014
NHL: Monday's play
Play: New Jersey/Carolina over 5 -115
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Combined these teams allow 5.57 goals per game. They are 10th and 12th in the NHL, respectively, on the power play, and New Jersey allows a ton of man-advantages (101) and is 29th in the league in penalty killing (74.3%). Jeff Skinner was held scoreless on Sunday for the fifth time in six games, but he had 10 shots against Detroit and he's found the net three times in the last four meetings with New Jersey. Hurricanes G Anton Khudobin, who is expected to start this one, is still is searching for his first win of the season (0-6-2, 2.88 goals-against average). The over is 8-5 in New Jersey games with a total set at 5, and the over is 9-8 in Devils road games. The over is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings. It's also 3-2 when the Hurricanes have no rest days and is 5-2 when New Jersey has one day of rest. The Devils have scored 12 goals in their last three contests at PNC Arena. New Jersey G Cory Schneider could get the night off since the Devils play Chicago on Tuesday. If so you'll see Scott Clemmensen and his .852 save percentage.
Record: 222-167-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +131.57%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Combined these teams allow 5.57 goals per game. They are 10th and 12th in the NHL, respectively, on the power play, and New Jersey allows a ton of man-advantages (101) and is 29th in the league in penalty killing (74.3%). Jeff Skinner was held scoreless on Sunday for the fifth time in six games, but he had 10 shots against Detroit and he's found the net three times in the last four meetings with New Jersey. Hurricanes G Anton Khudobin, who is expected to start this one, is still is searching for his first win of the season (0-6-2, 2.88 goals-against average). The over is 8-5 in New Jersey games with a total set at 5, and the over is 9-8 in Devils road games. The over is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings. It's also 3-2 when the Hurricanes have no rest days and is 5-2 when New Jersey has one day of rest. The Devils have scored 12 goals in their last three contests at PNC Arena. New Jersey G Cory Schneider could get the night off since the Devils play Chicago on Tuesday. If so you'll see Scott Clemmensen and his .852 save percentage.
Record: 222-167-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +131.57%
Saturday, December 6, 2014
No plays for Sunday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 222-167-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +131.57%
Record: 222-167-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +131.57%
NCAAF: Saturday's play
Play: Iowa State +34.5 -105
Time: noon ET
Reasoning: The Cyclones are 2-9 overall, but they are 3-2-1 this season when catching more than 10 points. Three of their losses (to Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas Sate) were by a combined 10 points. Iowa State won 37-23 on its last trip to Fort Worth (10/06/12) and it kept last season's meeting close (a 21-17 loss on 11/09/13). This is by far the most points the Cyclones have been spotted this season. Prior to this spread, they pushed as 21-point underdogs to Baylor. TCU's scoring margin is +24.2. This is the most the Horned Frogs have been favored by all season.
Record: 222-166-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +138.73%
Time: noon ET
Reasoning: The Cyclones are 2-9 overall, but they are 3-2-1 this season when catching more than 10 points. Three of their losses (to Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas Sate) were by a combined 10 points. Iowa State won 37-23 on its last trip to Fort Worth (10/06/12) and it kept last season's meeting close (a 21-17 loss on 11/09/13). This is by far the most points the Cyclones have been spotted this season. Prior to this spread, they pushed as 21-point underdogs to Baylor. TCU's scoring margin is +24.2. This is the most the Horned Frogs have been favored by all season.
Record: 222-166-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +138.73%
Friday, December 5, 2014
NBA: Friday's play
Play: L.A. Lakers/Boston under 216 -104
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for neither team average this total both overall and in the home/away splits. The don't shoot or make many three-pointers and Boston has averaged just 98.6 points per game in its last five. This is the second-highest total the Lakers have faced this season and their game that had the 221 total saw just 195 points in overtime. This is the highest total Boston has seen this season. The Celts have horrible interior defense, but that shouldn't matter against L.A. The Lakers shot just 37.5% inside the arc and scored just 20 points in the paint at Washington on Wednesday night. Jeremy Lin didn't score at all (0-of-10 shooting) and Kobe Bryant went scoreless in the second half and is shooting just 34.2% in the second halves of games vs. 44.0% before halftime. Boston shot just 39.8% Wednesday vs. Detroit and held the Pistons to 36.3% shooting. Rajon Rondo is averaging just 8.3 ppg and he's always been terrible at the line. But he's shooting only 30% (not a misprint) from the stripe this season.
Record: 221-166-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +132.04%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for neither team average this total both overall and in the home/away splits. The don't shoot or make many three-pointers and Boston has averaged just 98.6 points per game in its last five. This is the second-highest total the Lakers have faced this season and their game that had the 221 total saw just 195 points in overtime. This is the highest total Boston has seen this season. The Celts have horrible interior defense, but that shouldn't matter against L.A. The Lakers shot just 37.5% inside the arc and scored just 20 points in the paint at Washington on Wednesday night. Jeremy Lin didn't score at all (0-of-10 shooting) and Kobe Bryant went scoreless in the second half and is shooting just 34.2% in the second halves of games vs. 44.0% before halftime. Boston shot just 39.8% Wednesday vs. Detroit and held the Pistons to 36.3% shooting. Rajon Rondo is averaging just 8.3 ppg and he's always been terrible at the line. But he's shooting only 30% (not a misprint) from the stripe this season.
Record: 221-166-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +132.04%
Thursday, December 4, 2014
NFL: Thursday's plays
Plays: Chicago +3.5 +100 and Dallas/Chicago under 52 -110
Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The power rankings say the Cowboys should be favored by 1. Dallas has played the second-easiest schedule in the NFL and the Bears have played the eighth-toughest. Chicago has won the last three meetings, including a 45-28 victory last season. In that one the Bears didn't punt, Josh McCown threw for 348 yards and four TDs. Tony Romo went 11-for-20 passing for 104 yards and in his career he's 12-17 as a starter in December. Last week against Philadelphia, Dallas was held to 267 yards. DeMarco Murray, the league's runaway rushing leader, was held to 73 yards on 20 carries and Romo threw two picks, zero TDs and absorbed four sacks en route to his lowest QB rating (53.7) since 2011. Defensively the Cowboys yielded a season-high 464 yards, including 256 on the ground, and they allowed the Eagles scoring drives of 80 and 88 yards in the first quarter. Chicago, which has won two straight at home, is 10th in the NFL in rushing defense (105.5 per contest). The Bears could be without Robbie Gould on Thursday because of a quadriceps injury. So Jay Feely may handle the kicking duties after being signed Wednesday. Games at Soldier Field have averaged just 41.4 points. And the temperature should be in the low 30s with a 10-15 mph wind.
Record: 221-164-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +146.86%
Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The power rankings say the Cowboys should be favored by 1. Dallas has played the second-easiest schedule in the NFL and the Bears have played the eighth-toughest. Chicago has won the last three meetings, including a 45-28 victory last season. In that one the Bears didn't punt, Josh McCown threw for 348 yards and four TDs. Tony Romo went 11-for-20 passing for 104 yards and in his career he's 12-17 as a starter in December. Last week against Philadelphia, Dallas was held to 267 yards. DeMarco Murray, the league's runaway rushing leader, was held to 73 yards on 20 carries and Romo threw two picks, zero TDs and absorbed four sacks en route to his lowest QB rating (53.7) since 2011. Defensively the Cowboys yielded a season-high 464 yards, including 256 on the ground, and they allowed the Eagles scoring drives of 80 and 88 yards in the first quarter. Chicago, which has won two straight at home, is 10th in the NFL in rushing defense (105.5 per contest). The Bears could be without Robbie Gould on Thursday because of a quadriceps injury. So Jay Feely may handle the kicking duties after being signed Wednesday. Games at Soldier Field have averaged just 41.4 points. And the temperature should be in the low 30s with a 10-15 mph wind.
Record: 221-164-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +146.86%
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
NBA: Wednesday's play
Play: Brooklyn +8.5 -105
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power rankings say the Spurs should just be favored by six, so there is 2.5 extra points of value in this line. Tony Parker (ribs) is not 100 percent; he missed Monday's game, a 109-103 victory against winless Philadelphia. Parker is averaging just 14.8 points and 46.4 shooting in road games, down from 20.4 ppg on 56.0% shooting at home. Also, the 76ers held Danny Green to five points on 1-of-9 shooting. Brooklyn was victorious in the last meeting at Barclays Center. It shoots well from from behind the arc at home (38.0%). The Nets outscored the Knicks 48-26 in the paint Tuesday night and outrebounded New York 49-40. Brooklyn recorded a season-high 21 offensive rebounds in that one and got 13 total from Kevin Garnett. The Nets have different players who can step it up, as evidenced by Brook Lopez scoring 19 of his 23 points in the first half and Joe Johnson scoring 19 of his 22 points after halftime. Could this be a look-ahead game for the Spurs? They play Memphis on Friday.
Record: 220-164-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +140.00%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power rankings say the Spurs should just be favored by six, so there is 2.5 extra points of value in this line. Tony Parker (ribs) is not 100 percent; he missed Monday's game, a 109-103 victory against winless Philadelphia. Parker is averaging just 14.8 points and 46.4 shooting in road games, down from 20.4 ppg on 56.0% shooting at home. Also, the 76ers held Danny Green to five points on 1-of-9 shooting. Brooklyn was victorious in the last meeting at Barclays Center. It shoots well from from behind the arc at home (38.0%). The Nets outscored the Knicks 48-26 in the paint Tuesday night and outrebounded New York 49-40. Brooklyn recorded a season-high 21 offensive rebounds in that one and got 13 total from Kevin Garnett. The Nets have different players who can step it up, as evidenced by Brook Lopez scoring 19 of his 23 points in the first half and Joe Johnson scoring 19 of his 22 points after halftime. Could this be a look-ahead game for the Spurs? They play Memphis on Friday.
Record: 220-164-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +140.00%
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 220-164-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +140.00%
Record: 220-164-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +140.00%
Monday, December 1, 2014
NBA: Monday's plays
Plays: L.A. Clippers -14 -110 and Minnesota/L.A. Clippers under 216 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is the perfect spot for a Clippers blowout and I think that increases the probability of an under as well. Los Angeles is coming off a road trip where it won six of seven games with the only loss coming against league-leading Memphis. The Clippers have won nine straight in the series and here they will face an injury-riddled Minnesota team. The Timberwolves are missing three starters because of injury (Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic) as well as reserve Ronny Turiaf. Two of the 10 players used by Minnesota in Sunday's 107-93 loss in Portland played through illnesses (Mo Williams, strep throat, pink eye and Andrew Wiggins, flu). Rookie Zach LaVine didn't step up (zero points), but Shabazz Muhammad did and scored 28. But I wouldn't put too much stock in Muhammad's performance, as that's the same number of points he scored in the previous four games combined. With Pekovic out I like Blake Griffin to go hog-wild. In 15 career games against the Wolves Griffin has averaged 24.1 points and 9.7 rebounds. In Saturday’s win against Utah he scored 28 on 13-of-18 from the floor and he made his only three-point try. During the road trip Los Angeles held a 106.6-94.4 average scoring edge and it shot 50.4% from the floor and 41.6% on threes. Jamal Crawford has shot 53.4% over his last four games and has averaged 22.3 points. The Clippers won the most recent meeting in the series (March 31) by a score of 114-104 despite missing Griffin (back) and Crawford (calf). In that game Chris Paul had 22 points, nine assists and seven rebounds while DeAndre Jordan pulled down 24 rebounds. Minnesota's perimeter defense is poor (41.6%) and Los Angeles can bomb (37.6%). Add to this the Clippers' propensity to shoot three-pointers (32.3% of their shots)... I like L.A. to get a good lead, rest its starters at the end of the contest nd thus cash both bets.
Record: 219-163-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +140.66%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is the perfect spot for a Clippers blowout and I think that increases the probability of an under as well. Los Angeles is coming off a road trip where it won six of seven games with the only loss coming against league-leading Memphis. The Clippers have won nine straight in the series and here they will face an injury-riddled Minnesota team. The Timberwolves are missing three starters because of injury (Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic) as well as reserve Ronny Turiaf. Two of the 10 players used by Minnesota in Sunday's 107-93 loss in Portland played through illnesses (Mo Williams, strep throat, pink eye and Andrew Wiggins, flu). Rookie Zach LaVine didn't step up (zero points), but Shabazz Muhammad did and scored 28. But I wouldn't put too much stock in Muhammad's performance, as that's the same number of points he scored in the previous four games combined. With Pekovic out I like Blake Griffin to go hog-wild. In 15 career games against the Wolves Griffin has averaged 24.1 points and 9.7 rebounds. In Saturday’s win against Utah he scored 28 on 13-of-18 from the floor and he made his only three-point try. During the road trip Los Angeles held a 106.6-94.4 average scoring edge and it shot 50.4% from the floor and 41.6% on threes. Jamal Crawford has shot 53.4% over his last four games and has averaged 22.3 points. The Clippers won the most recent meeting in the series (March 31) by a score of 114-104 despite missing Griffin (back) and Crawford (calf). In that game Chris Paul had 22 points, nine assists and seven rebounds while DeAndre Jordan pulled down 24 rebounds. Minnesota's perimeter defense is poor (41.6%) and Los Angeles can bomb (37.6%). Add to this the Clippers' propensity to shoot three-pointers (32.3% of their shots)... I like L.A. to get a good lead, rest its starters at the end of the contest nd thus cash both bets.
Record: 219-163-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +140.66%
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