I've decided to take the weekend off.
Subscribers will be credited two days.
Record: 90-58-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +111.36%
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Friday, May 30, 2014
MLB: Friday's Atl/Mia
Play: Atlanta -128 (Teheran vs. action)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves have a stopper going today in Julio Teheran. He has a 1.77 ERA, has not allowed a run in his last 15 innings and has given up more than two earned runs in just two starts this season. On April 21 he limited Miami to one run on five hits over seven innings. Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton is wearing out the NL, but he has been held to a .208 average in six games vs. Atlanta this season. Miami starter Tom Koehler has a 1.66 WHIP and a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts. He'll have to contend with Braves LF Justin Upton, who is batting .429 with six doubles, four homers and 14 RBI over his last 12 games. Atlanta has a big advantage over the Marlins in the bullpen (3.12 ERA vs. 3.94 ERA).
Record: 89-58-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +106.52%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Braves have a stopper going today in Julio Teheran. He has a 1.77 ERA, has not allowed a run in his last 15 innings and has given up more than two earned runs in just two starts this season. On April 21 he limited Miami to one run on five hits over seven innings. Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton is wearing out the NL, but he has been held to a .208 average in six games vs. Atlanta this season. Miami starter Tom Koehler has a 1.66 WHIP and a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts. He'll have to contend with Braves LF Justin Upton, who is batting .429 with six doubles, four homers and 14 RBI over his last 12 games. Atlanta has a big advantage over the Marlins in the bullpen (3.12 ERA vs. 3.94 ERA).
Record: 89-58-5 (60.5%)
Bankroll: +106.52%
Thursday, May 29, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Couldn't find one worthy of a 3% bankroll risk.
Good luck if you found something!
Good luck if you found something!
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's TB/Tor
Play: Tampa Bay -103 (Archer vs. action)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays are red-hot, but they are not nearly this good. They were below .500 earlier this month. Their bullpen has a 4.96 ERA. And they are scoring about one run less per game vs. RH. Rays starter Chris Archer has a 2.16 ERA in his last three starts. He has not allowed a run in his last two outings (11.2 IP) and he is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in four career games against Toronto. Archer's counterpart, Liam Hendriks, was good in his first start of 2014. But take a look at his track record. In 29 starts and 31 career appearances, his ERA is 5.90. He also has allowed 31 homers.
Record: 89-57-5 (61.0%)
Bankroll: +112.91%
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Blue Jays are red-hot, but they are not nearly this good. They were below .500 earlier this month. Their bullpen has a 4.96 ERA. And they are scoring about one run less per game vs. RH. Rays starter Chris Archer has a 2.16 ERA in his last three starts. He has not allowed a run in his last two outings (11.2 IP) and he is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in four career games against Toronto. Archer's counterpart, Liam Hendriks, was good in his first start of 2014. But take a look at his track record. In 29 starts and 31 career appearances, his ERA is 5.90. He also has allowed 31 homers.
Record: 89-57-5 (61.0%)
Bankroll: +112.91%
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's Pit/NYM
Play: N.Y. Mets -109 (action vs. Niese)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh stole one on Monday but I can't see it doing that today. The Pirates are hitting just .223 and scoring only 3.32 runs per game on the road. Also, their bullpen ERA is 3.50 away from home. The Mets shook things up a bit (fired hitting coach, released reliever) after Monday's loss, and that often spurs teams. Jon Niese gets the ball tonight for New York and he has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Niese has been consistent all year, as he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his nine starts. He'll be opposed by Edinson Volquez who has a 4.27 ERA. In away games Volquez is 0-2 and has allowed seven home runs in 18.1 IP. He is 1-5 with a 7.11 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets.
Record: 88-57-5 (60.7%)
Bankroll: +107.2%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh stole one on Monday but I can't see it doing that today. The Pirates are hitting just .223 and scoring only 3.32 runs per game on the road. Also, their bullpen ERA is 3.50 away from home. The Mets shook things up a bit (fired hitting coach, released reliever) after Monday's loss, and that often spurs teams. Jon Niese gets the ball tonight for New York and he has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Niese has been consistent all year, as he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his nine starts. He'll be opposed by Edinson Volquez who has a 4.27 ERA. In away games Volquez is 0-2 and has allowed seven home runs in 18.1 IP. He is 1-5 with a 7.11 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets.
Record: 88-57-5 (60.7%)
Bankroll: +107.2%
Monday, May 26, 2014
MLB Monday: Bos/Atl
Play: Boston +122 (Buchholz vs. action)
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Despite what his numbers indicate, Clay Buchholz has been hit and miss this season. He's mostly "miss," but five of his nine starts have been quality ones. Altanta has never seen Buchholz either, so I like him to have an advantage. For the Braves, Ervin Santana has been positively Jaime Navarro-like in his last two starts. He was tagged for 11 runs on 19 hits in 12 IP. Last season (Aug. 9) Boston nailed him for nine hits and six runs in 3.2 IP. Against RH, the Braves are hitting 57 points lower and scoring 2.5 less runs per game (not a misprint).
Record: 87-56-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +105.90%
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Despite what his numbers indicate, Clay Buchholz has been hit and miss this season. He's mostly "miss," but five of his nine starts have been quality ones. Altanta has never seen Buchholz either, so I like him to have an advantage. For the Braves, Ervin Santana has been positively Jaime Navarro-like in his last two starts. He was tagged for 11 runs on 19 hits in 12 IP. Last season (Aug. 9) Boston nailed him for nine hits and six runs in 3.2 IP. Against RH, the Braves are hitting 57 points lower and scoring 2.5 less runs per game (not a misprint).
Record: 87-56-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +105.90%
MLB Monday: Pit/NYM
Play: N.Y. Mets + 102 (action vs. deGrom)
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mets have won 13 of the last 19 meetings at Citi Field and Pittsburgh is 6-14 on the road. New York has a good one in Jacob deGrom going today, as he's allowed just eight hits in 13 innings. Pirates starter Brandon Cumpton is being recalled from AAA for this outing. He was hit pretty hard in his last start, thus prompting his demotion. Cumpton has a 4.26 ERA. Overall, Pittsburgh is hitting 19 points lower and is scoring nearly one run less per game vs. RH. On the road it's hitting .216 and scoring just 3.01 rpg vs. RH. Over the last 10 games the Mets bullpen is 1.30 runs better per game than that of the Pirates.
Record: 87-56-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +105.90%
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mets have won 13 of the last 19 meetings at Citi Field and Pittsburgh is 6-14 on the road. New York has a good one in Jacob deGrom going today, as he's allowed just eight hits in 13 innings. Pirates starter Brandon Cumpton is being recalled from AAA for this outing. He was hit pretty hard in his last start, thus prompting his demotion. Cumpton has a 4.26 ERA. Overall, Pittsburgh is hitting 19 points lower and is scoring nearly one run less per game vs. RH. On the road it's hitting .216 and scoring just 3.01 rpg vs. RH. Over the last 10 games the Mets bullpen is 1.30 runs better per game than that of the Pirates.
Record: 87-56-5 (60.8%)
Bankroll: +105.90%
Sunday, May 25, 2014
NBA: Sunday's play
Play: San Antonio +2.5 -107
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The power rankings I use say this should be a pick 'em. And that's what it should be with Serge Ibaka (calf) playing, and he won't. Who knew his absence would have such an impact? The Spurs won the first two games by an average of 26 points. They have dominated the Thunder inside and out. And San Antonio doesn't want the Thunder to come back like it did in 2012 after losing the first two games in the series and then winning the next four. Tony Parker is shooting 55.2%, Danny Green has made 11-of-15 three-pointers and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbook have combined to shoot just 40% from the field. The Spurs have advantages in overall shooting, three-point shooting and assists-to-turnovers.
Record: 87-55-5 (61.3%)
Bankroll: +112.27%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The power rankings I use say this should be a pick 'em. And that's what it should be with Serge Ibaka (calf) playing, and he won't. Who knew his absence would have such an impact? The Spurs won the first two games by an average of 26 points. They have dominated the Thunder inside and out. And San Antonio doesn't want the Thunder to come back like it did in 2012 after losing the first two games in the series and then winning the next four. Tony Parker is shooting 55.2%, Danny Green has made 11-of-15 three-pointers and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbook have combined to shoot just 40% from the field. The Spurs have advantages in overall shooting, three-point shooting and assists-to-turnovers.
Record: 87-55-5 (61.3%)
Bankroll: +112.27%
Saturday, May 24, 2014
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: Cleveland/Baltimore under 8.5 -117 (Kluber vs. Jimenez)
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have averaged just 7.57 runs per game this season. So far in 2014 the over is 5-2 in games called by umpire Rob Drake. However, Drake's games last season averaged just 8.39 runs. Both starters -- Corey Kluber and Ubaldo Jimenez -- have been going well recently (3.12 ERA and 3.05 ERA, respectively). In the last five games, the bullpens have ERAs of 2.05 and 2.82, respectively. And Manny Machado (groin) and Asdrubal Cabrera (undisclosed) left Thursday's game and they are questionable for this one.
Record: 87-54-5 (61.7%)
Bankroll: +118.83%
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have averaged just 7.57 runs per game this season. So far in 2014 the over is 5-2 in games called by umpire Rob Drake. However, Drake's games last season averaged just 8.39 runs. Both starters -- Corey Kluber and Ubaldo Jimenez -- have been going well recently (3.12 ERA and 3.05 ERA, respectively). In the last five games, the bullpens have ERAs of 2.05 and 2.82, respectively. And Manny Machado (groin) and Asdrubal Cabrera (undisclosed) left Thursday's game and they are questionable for this one.
Record: 87-54-5 (61.7%)
Bankroll: +118.83%
Friday, May 23, 2014
MLB: Friday's NYY/CWS
Play: N.Y. Yankees -134 (Kuroda vs. action)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The key here is White Sox starter Hector Noesi. He is 0-3 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts this season. Overall he has a 7.31 ERA. For his career Noesi has allowed 14 earned runs in just 16.1 IP at U.S. Cellular Field. Should it be the battle of the bullpens, Yankees relievers have a better ERA in the home/away splits than that of Chicago. New York pitcher Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.38 ERA in five career starts against the White Sox.
Record: 87-52-5 (62.6%)
Bankroll: +132.79%
MLB: Friday's Bos/TB
Play: Boston -108 (Lackey vs. action)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rays are just 2-9 in their last 11 home games. They will send Chris Archer out there tonight and he's been a gas can (1.45 WHIP, 4.59 ERA overall, 1.72 WHIP in last three). Archer hasn't gone past the sixth inning in eight of his nine starts this season and he is 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox. As such I expect David Ortiz, who hasn't recorded an RBI in his last seven games, to break out. Boston will send out veteran John Lackey, who is 13-7 in his career vs. Tampa Bay. The Red Sox definitely have the bullpen advantage here with a 2.94 ERA vs. the 4.11 ERA of the Rays.
Record: 87-52-5 (62.6%)
Bankroll: +132.79%
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rays are just 2-9 in their last 11 home games. They will send Chris Archer out there tonight and he's been a gas can (1.45 WHIP, 4.59 ERA overall, 1.72 WHIP in last three). Archer hasn't gone past the sixth inning in eight of his nine starts this season and he is 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox. As such I expect David Ortiz, who hasn't recorded an RBI in his last seven games, to break out. Boston will send out veteran John Lackey, who is 13-7 in his career vs. Tampa Bay. The Red Sox definitely have the bullpen advantage here with a 2.94 ERA vs. the 4.11 ERA of the Rays.
Record: 87-52-5 (62.6%)
Bankroll: +132.79%
Thursday, May 22, 2014
Thursday's MLB plays
Play: Boston -130 (action vs. Lester)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like Jon Lester to stop the bleeding for the Red Sox. He has a 2.67 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP overall and a 1.80 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his last three starts. The Blue Jays will counter with Mark Buehrle, who has seven wins against one loss. That lone loss? It came against Boston on April 25 when he gave up seven runs on 12 hits with three walks. The Red Sox score about a half run more per game vs. LH.
Play: Tampa Bay +111 (action vs. Cobb)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oakland was held to just one hit on Wednesday and it will square off against Alex Cobb tonight. Cobb didn't give up a run in either of his last two starts. The Rays were 7-0 in his home starts last season and in his five career starts against Oakland he's thrown two complete games. Cobb has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in his three starts this season.
Record: 86-51-5 (62.8%)
Bankroll: +132.02%
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I like Jon Lester to stop the bleeding for the Red Sox. He has a 2.67 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP overall and a 1.80 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his last three starts. The Blue Jays will counter with Mark Buehrle, who has seven wins against one loss. That lone loss? It came against Boston on April 25 when he gave up seven runs on 12 hits with three walks. The Red Sox score about a half run more per game vs. LH.
Play: Tampa Bay +111 (action vs. Cobb)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oakland was held to just one hit on Wednesday and it will square off against Alex Cobb tonight. Cobb didn't give up a run in either of his last two starts. The Rays were 7-0 in his home starts last season and in his five career starts against Oakland he's thrown two complete games. Cobb has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in his three starts this season.
Record: 86-51-5 (62.8%)
Bankroll: +132.02%
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's Min/SD
Play: San Diego -151 (action vs. Ross)
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Twins starter Phil Hughes faced the Padres last August and it didn't go well for him. He gave up five runs in 2.2 IP. Hughes' ERA is almost a run higher than counterpart Tyson Ross, who has won his last three decisions. Ross has a 1.29 ERA over that span. Another guy who was struggled against San Diego has been Joe Mauer. He is 4-for-33 in his career against the Padres. San Diego's bullpen has a 2.20 ERA and Minnesota's relievers have a collective 3.74 ERA.
Record: 86-49-5 (63.7%)
Bankroll: +146.82%
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Twins starter Phil Hughes faced the Padres last August and it didn't go well for him. He gave up five runs in 2.2 IP. Hughes' ERA is almost a run higher than counterpart Tyson Ross, who has won his last three decisions. Ross has a 1.29 ERA over that span. Another guy who was struggled against San Diego has been Joe Mauer. He is 4-for-33 in his career against the Padres. San Diego's bullpen has a 2.20 ERA and Minnesota's relievers have a collective 3.74 ERA.
Record: 86-49-5 (63.7%)
Bankroll: +146.82%
MLB: Wednesday's Cin/Was
Play: Washington -142 (action vs. Roark)
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Nationals hammered Johnny Cueto on Tuesday and draw a much easier assignment today against Alfredo Simon. Washington will throw Tanner Roark against the Reds and he is 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his career at Nationals Park. Cincinnati also has never seen him. The Reds have gone 4-for-34 with runners in scoring position over the last two games. Cincinnati's bullpen has a 5.08 ERA compared to Washington's 2.17 ERA. Should the Nats fall behind in this one, all is not lost as they are tied for the major league lead with 14 comeback wins.
Record: 86-49-5 (63.7%)
Bankroll: +146.82%
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Nationals hammered Johnny Cueto on Tuesday and draw a much easier assignment today against Alfredo Simon. Washington will throw Tanner Roark against the Reds and he is 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his career at Nationals Park. Cincinnati also has never seen him. The Reds have gone 4-for-34 with runners in scoring position over the last two games. Cincinnati's bullpen has a 5.08 ERA compared to Washington's 2.17 ERA. Should the Nats fall behind in this one, all is not lost as they are tied for the major league lead with 14 comeback wins.
Bankroll: +146.82%
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
No plays for Tuesday
I only make plays when I find ones worthy of risking 3% of my bankroll on and when I have the time to do the proper handicapping.
Perhaps tomorrow. Good luck if you found something.
Record: 86-49-5 (63.7%)
Bankroll: +146.82%
Perhaps tomorrow. Good luck if you found something.
Record: 86-49-5 (63.7%)
Bankroll: +146.82%
Monday, May 19, 2014
Monday's NBA Play
Play: San Antonio -5.5 -107
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This line is too low with Oklahoma City power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) unavailable for the series. I think the Thunder will have a heck of a time trying to make up for Ibaka, who averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and four blocks in his four games against the Spurs this season. San Antonio will have Tony Parker (hamstring) ready to go as he practiced on Sunday. The Spurs also can rely on SF Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 steals in the last series against Portland. I also expect San Antonio to get more out of SG Marco Belinelli as he's only scoring about half of the 11.4 points he averaged in the regular season. At home the Spurs' scoring margin was +9.2. They have a big advantage in the shooting department and have hit 42.2% of their threes at AT&T Center.
Record: 83-49-5 (62.9%)
Bankroll: +128.37%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This line is too low with Oklahoma City power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) unavailable for the series. I think the Thunder will have a heck of a time trying to make up for Ibaka, who averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and four blocks in his four games against the Spurs this season. San Antonio will have Tony Parker (hamstring) ready to go as he practiced on Sunday. The Spurs also can rely on SF Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 steals in the last series against Portland. I also expect San Antonio to get more out of SG Marco Belinelli as he's only scoring about half of the 11.4 points he averaged in the regular season. At home the Spurs' scoring margin was +9.2. They have a big advantage in the shooting department and have hit 42.2% of their threes at AT&T Center.
Record: 83-49-5 (62.9%)
Bankroll: +128.37%
Monday's MLB plays
Play: Cleveland -108 (action vs. Kluber)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Detroit is tough but the Indians have Corey Kluber going tonight and he has been on a roll. In his last three starts, Kluber has allowed just five runs in 21.2 IP and has struck out 31. He has 66 Ks in 58.2 IP this season. The Tigers answer with Drew Smyly, who has pitched very well in 2014, but he is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Tribe. Detroit's bullpen has a 4.18 ERA compared to Cleveland's 3.36 ERA overall and 2.92 ERA at home. The Tigers also played last night in Boston and reportedly didn't get to their hotel in Cleveland until 3 this morning because of plane issues.
Play: Milwaukee/Atlanta over 6.5 -120 (Peralta vs. Minor)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams combine for an average of 7.06 runs per game and 7.48 rpg in the home/away splits. Brewers road games average 8.70 runs. Braves pitcher Mike Minor has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 3.41 ERA on the road and Atlanta relievers have a 4.02 ERA in their last five games. The Brewers also will have Carlos Gomez in the lineup.
Record: 83-49-5 (62.9%)
Bankroll: +128.37%
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Detroit is tough but the Indians have Corey Kluber going tonight and he has been on a roll. In his last three starts, Kluber has allowed just five runs in 21.2 IP and has struck out 31. He has 66 Ks in 58.2 IP this season. The Tigers answer with Drew Smyly, who has pitched very well in 2014, but he is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Tribe. Detroit's bullpen has a 4.18 ERA compared to Cleveland's 3.36 ERA overall and 2.92 ERA at home. The Tigers also played last night in Boston and reportedly didn't get to their hotel in Cleveland until 3 this morning because of plane issues.
Play: Milwaukee/Atlanta over 6.5 -120 (Peralta vs. Minor)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams combine for an average of 7.06 runs per game and 7.48 rpg in the home/away splits. Brewers road games average 8.70 runs. Braves pitcher Mike Minor has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 3.41 ERA on the road and Atlanta relievers have a 4.02 ERA in their last five games. The Brewers also will have Carlos Gomez in the lineup.
Record: 83-49-5 (62.9%)
Bankroll: +128.37%
Sunday, May 18, 2014
MLB: Sunday's Tor/Tex
Play: Texas +1.5 -145 (Dickey vs. Martinez)
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 25-18 if they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Blue Jays would be 20-24 if they laid 1.5 rpg. Toronto starter R.A. Dickey is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA on the road this season. The Jays bullpen has a 5.20 ERA. Texas starter Nick Martinez was pretty good in his first two starts and he boasts a 2.38 ERA. Toronto is scoring nearly a half-run less per game against RH. The Rangers bullpen has a 3.82 ERA in its last 10 games.
Record: 81-48-5 (62.8%)
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Rangers would be 25-18 if they were given 1.5 runs per game and the Blue Jays would be 20-24 if they laid 1.5 rpg. Toronto starter R.A. Dickey is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA on the road this season. The Jays bullpen has a 5.20 ERA. Texas starter Nick Martinez was pretty good in his first two starts and he boasts a 2.38 ERA. Toronto is scoring nearly a half-run less per game against RH. The Rangers bullpen has a 3.82 ERA in its last 10 games.
Record: 81-48-5 (62.8%)
MLB: Sunday's Bal/KC
Play: Baltimore/Kansas City over 7 +100 (Jimenez vs. Shields)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams have been playing like National League teams this season, with their limited scoring, but they are capable of much more offensively. I like it to come together today. The Royals are scoring 1.35 more runs per game vs. RH and the Orioles are hitting 50 points higher and are scoring 0.55 more rpg vs. RH. K.C. starter James Shields has a 1.33 WHIP in his last three starts and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have worn him out over their careers. Baltimore starter Ubaldo Jimenez has a 4.02 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP this season.
Record: 81-48-5 (62.8%)
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams have been playing like National League teams this season, with their limited scoring, but they are capable of much more offensively. I like it to come together today. The Royals are scoring 1.35 more runs per game vs. RH and the Orioles are hitting 50 points higher and are scoring 0.55 more rpg vs. RH. K.C. starter James Shields has a 1.33 WHIP in his last three starts and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have worn him out over their careers. Baltimore starter Ubaldo Jimenez has a 4.02 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP this season.
Record: 81-48-5 (62.8%)
MLB: Sunday's Oak/Cle
Play: Cleveland +1.5 -150 (Chavez vs. Masterson)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians would be 25-19 if they were given 1.5 runs per game and the A's would be 20-23 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland starter Jesse Chavez is a converted reliever. He's pitched remarkably well this season given that fact, but he hasn't fared well against Cleveland: 0-1 with an 8.49 ERA in 10 career appearances. The Indians are hitting 46 points higher and are scoring 1.24 more rpg vs. RH. Cleveland starter Justin Masterson has it together now, as opponents are hitting just .203 against him in May. In his last three starts Masterson has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Record: 81-48-5 (62.8%)
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Indians would be 25-19 if they were given 1.5 runs per game and the A's would be 20-23 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland starter Jesse Chavez is a converted reliever. He's pitched remarkably well this season given that fact, but he hasn't fared well against Cleveland: 0-1 with an 8.49 ERA in 10 career appearances. The Indians are hitting 46 points higher and are scoring 1.24 more rpg vs. RH. Cleveland starter Justin Masterson has it together now, as opponents are hitting just .203 against him in May. In his last three starts Masterson has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Record: 81-48-5 (62.8%)
Saturday, May 17, 2014
Saturday's MLB plays
No time to type out analysis, as I think faster than I can put into words...
Games starting soon as well...
Arizona +1.5 -110 (Kershaw vs. Anderson)
San Diego +120 (Erlin vs. action)
SD/Col o9.5 -110 (Erlin vs. Lyles)
Mia/SF un7.5 -115 (Koehler vs. Lincecum)
Tor/Tex ov9 +102 (Buehrle vs. Ross)
Tex -106 (action vs. Ross)
Record: 77-46-5 (62.6%)
Games starting soon as well...
Arizona +1.5 -110 (Kershaw vs. Anderson)
San Diego +120 (Erlin vs. action)
SD/Col o9.5 -110 (Erlin vs. Lyles)
Mia/SF un7.5 -115 (Koehler vs. Lincecum)
Tor/Tex ov9 +102 (Buehrle vs. Ross)
Tex -106 (action vs. Ross)
Record: 77-46-5 (62.6%)
Saturday's NHL play
Play: N.Y. Rangers/Montreal over 5 +129
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Montreal games average 5.07 goals and New York road games average 5.05 goals. Rick Nash hasn't scored in 17 games and he's got to find the back of the net at some point. However, New York has had 10 other players score in the playoffs. The Canadiens are led by P.K. Subban. They are 10-of-38 on the power play during the playoffs.
Record: 76-46-5 (62.3%)
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Montreal games average 5.07 goals and New York road games average 5.05 goals. Rick Nash hasn't scored in 17 games and he's got to find the back of the net at some point. However, New York has had 10 other players score in the playoffs. The Canadiens are led by P.K. Subban. They are 10-of-38 on the power play during the playoffs.
Record: 76-46-5 (62.3%)
Friday, May 16, 2014
Friday's MLB plays
Play: Minnesota -109 (Young vs. Gibson)
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Twins are coming off of a series win against Boston. Seattle has scored one run over its last two games. Mariners starter Chris Young is not as good as he's been and Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson is not as bad as he's been. Gibson actually only gave up his first homer of the season in his last start, which made him the last full-time starter in the majors to allow a homer. Seattle is hitting just .226 vs. RH and its bullpen has a 4.61 ERA in its last five games. The Twins are hitting 15 points higher and are scoring 1.4 more runs per game vs. RH.
Play: San Diego +1.5 -155 (Stults vs. De La Rosa)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres have won five of their last six games and the Rockies have dropped three straight. San Diego is scoring runs, averaging 6.4 per game over its last five wins. Colorado has scored just four runs in its last three contests. Padres starter Eric Stults is 3-0 lifetime against the Rockies and he didn't walk a batter in four of his last five starts. Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa is going tonight but he's not on normal rest. He was pushed back three days because of back spasms. He has a 4.80 ERA in 16 starts (20 appearances) against San Diego. Padres OF Seth Smith is batting above .500 over his last 11 games. San Diego would be 26-16 if given 1.5 rpg and the Rockies would be 16-26 if they gave 1.5 rpg.
Play: Arizona +1.5 -130 (Greinke vs. Miley)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Diamondbacks would be 21-22 if given 1.5 runs per game and Los Angeles would be 17-25 if it gave 1.5 rpg. The Dodgers are hitting 58 points lower and scoring 1.7 less rpg vs. LH. Los Angeles' bullpen has a 4.73 ERA on the road and a 5.40 ERA in its last five games. Arizona starter Wade Miley is coming off a strong performance and C Miguel Montero has hit well in his career against Dodgers starter Zack Greinke.
Play: Miami +1.5 -175 (Alvarez vs. Petit).
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Yusmeiro Petit is only pitching today because Tim Hudson is injured (hip). Petit started two games in place of Matt Cain this season and his ERA is 6.97 and his WHIP is 1.45 in those games. San Francisco is hitting 22 points lower and is scoring 0.71 less runs per game vs. RH. The Marlins bullpen has a 2.55 ERA over its last five games. Henderson Alvarez has a 3.33 ERA and his sinker should do fine at AT&T Park. Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton is batting .417 during his 17-game hitting streak. Miami is 10-2 in its last 12 at San Fran. Miami would be 27-15 if given 1.5 rpg and the Giants would be 18-24 if they gave 1.5 runs per game.
Record: 74-44-5 (62.7%)
Bankroll: +107%
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Where we stand
My bankroll is up 107.04% since starting this blog on Dec. 21.
Remember, each play is for 3% of your bankroll.
Remember, each play is for 3% of your bankroll.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
SD/Cin postponed
...Darn it! Really liked that play too.
Can't complain about the day though, went 3-1.
Record: 74-44-5 (62.7%)
Can't complain about the day though, went 3-1.
Record: 74-44-5 (62.7%)
Another Wednesday MLB play
Play: San Diego/Cincinnati over 7 +110 (Kennedy vs. Cueto)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Johnny Cueto has struggled against the Padres, going 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA in five career starts. Should San Diego get to Cueto, they should have an even easier time with the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati relievers have a combined 4.75 ERA overall and an 8.44 ERA over the last five games. Chase Headley and Will Venable are a combined 12-for-24 against Cueto in their careers. Teammate Seth Smith, the National League Player of the Week, is 19-for-36 during his nine-game hitting streak. The Padres also have Carlos Quentin back. Against San Diego starter Ian Kennedy, Reds OF Skip Schumaker is 8-for-19 lifetime. Games at Great American Ball Park average 7.37 runs. Games called by unpire Adrian Johnson have averaged 10.83 runs in six games this season and his average score hasn't been below 8.48 since 2007.
Record: 71-43-5 (62.3%)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Johnny Cueto has struggled against the Padres, going 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA in five career starts. Should San Diego get to Cueto, they should have an even easier time with the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati relievers have a combined 4.75 ERA overall and an 8.44 ERA over the last five games. Chase Headley and Will Venable are a combined 12-for-24 against Cueto in their careers. Teammate Seth Smith, the National League Player of the Week, is 19-for-36 during his nine-game hitting streak. The Padres also have Carlos Quentin back. Against San Diego starter Ian Kennedy, Reds OF Skip Schumaker is 8-for-19 lifetime. Games at Great American Ball Park average 7.37 runs. Games called by unpire Adrian Johnson have averaged 10.83 runs in six games this season and his average score hasn't been below 8.48 since 2007.
Record: 71-43-5 (62.3%)
More Wednesday MLB
Play: Chi. White Sox/Oakland under 9 -113 and Chi. White Sox +1.5 -115 (Rienzo vs. Milone)
Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I don't expect many runs to be scored today, thus making Chicago plus the run and a hook more enticing. The White Sox would be 24-17 if given 1.5 runs per game. The A's would be 18-22 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland will again be without Coco Crisp (neck). The A's have never seen Andre Rienzo. Oakland will send out Tommy Milone, who in two starts against the White Sox has a 0.60 ERA. Each bullpen has been dramatically better in the last 10 games (Chicago: 3.79 ERA, Oakland: 1.84 ERA). A's home games have averaged just 7.43 runs.
Play: Atlanta/San Francisco over 6.5 -115 (Teheran vs. Bumgarner)
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Julio Teheran hasn't had a bad outing all season, but he may be due for one today. On May 3 he gave up three homers (thankfully for him they were solo shots) to the Giants. Could Michael Morse victimize him again today like he did in that ballgame? That was Morse's last homer. San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner is fortunate that his ERA is where it is since he has a 1.41 WHIP on the season. The Giants bullpen has a 5.84 ERA in its last five games. Atlanta hits 46 points higher and scores 1.68 more runs per game vs. LH. San Francisco scores 4.04 rpg.
Record: 71-43-5 (62.3%)
Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I don't expect many runs to be scored today, thus making Chicago plus the run and a hook more enticing. The White Sox would be 24-17 if given 1.5 runs per game. The A's would be 18-22 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Oakland will again be without Coco Crisp (neck). The A's have never seen Andre Rienzo. Oakland will send out Tommy Milone, who in two starts against the White Sox has a 0.60 ERA. Each bullpen has been dramatically better in the last 10 games (Chicago: 3.79 ERA, Oakland: 1.84 ERA). A's home games have averaged just 7.43 runs.
Play: Atlanta/San Francisco over 6.5 -115 (Teheran vs. Bumgarner)
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Julio Teheran hasn't had a bad outing all season, but he may be due for one today. On May 3 he gave up three homers (thankfully for him they were solo shots) to the Giants. Could Michael Morse victimize him again today like he did in that ballgame? That was Morse's last homer. San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner is fortunate that his ERA is where it is since he has a 1.41 WHIP on the season. The Giants bullpen has a 5.84 ERA in its last five games. Atlanta hits 46 points higher and scores 1.68 more runs per game vs. LH. San Francisco scores 4.04 rpg.
Record: 71-43-5 (62.3%)
Early Wednesday MLB play
Play: Baltimore +120 (action vs. Gausman)
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Justin Verlander can still dominate, but he's been more human this season in terms of WHIP (1.31). Today he'll have to face an Orioles team that hits 42 points better and scores a quarter-run more per game vs. RH. Detroit also has a terrible bullpen (4.63 ERA). Baltimore will start the organization's second-ranked prospect: Kevin Gausman. He had a 2.08 ERA at Triple-A Norfolk and last season he struck out 49 in 47.2 IP with Baltimore. Last June 2 against the Tigers, Gausman went six innings and allowed five hits and one run.
Record: 71-43-5 (62.3%)
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Justin Verlander can still dominate, but he's been more human this season in terms of WHIP (1.31). Today he'll have to face an Orioles team that hits 42 points better and scores a quarter-run more per game vs. RH. Detroit also has a terrible bullpen (4.63 ERA). Baltimore will start the organization's second-ranked prospect: Kevin Gausman. He had a 2.08 ERA at Triple-A Norfolk and last season he struck out 49 in 47.2 IP with Baltimore. Last June 2 against the Tigers, Gausman went six innings and allowed five hits and one run.
Record: 71-43-5 (62.3%)
Monday, May 12, 2014
Monday's NBA plays
Plays: Portland +5 -110 and San Antonio/Portland under 211 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Spurs dominated the first three games and as a result the spread and total are now set too high. The power rankings I use say San Antonio should be favored by 2.5 points. The Trail Blazers played a much tougher regular-season schedule than the Spurs and finished just eight games behind them in the Western Conference. The total for this contest by far exceeds what San Antonio games typically look like and even exceeds the avergae score for games involving Portland both in the overall sense and in the home/away splits. I like LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard to get right this evening with their backs against the wall. Additionally, the average combined score for any of these refs doesn't exceed 203.5 points.
Record: 69-43-5 (61.6%)
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Spurs dominated the first three games and as a result the spread and total are now set too high. The power rankings I use say San Antonio should be favored by 2.5 points. The Trail Blazers played a much tougher regular-season schedule than the Spurs and finished just eight games behind them in the Western Conference. The total for this contest by far exceeds what San Antonio games typically look like and even exceeds the avergae score for games involving Portland both in the overall sense and in the home/away splits. I like LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard to get right this evening with their backs against the wall. Additionally, the average combined score for any of these refs doesn't exceed 203.5 points.
Record: 69-43-5 (61.6%)
Sunday, May 11, 2014
Late Sunday plays
Sport: NHL
Play: N.Y. Rangers-107
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh has an excellent road record, but its goals-per-game differential is just .09 away from home. The Penguins are just 1-of-15 on the power play in this series and they could be without defensemen Olli Maatta and Brooks Orpik tonight. New York has a money goalie in Henrik Lundqvist, who has won eight of his last 10 games with his team facing elimination. I expect at least one goal out of Rick Nash. He is beyond due after a 15-game scoreless drought. The same goes for Martin St. Louis, who hasn't scored in seven straight games. St. Louis should be on an emotional high too after the sudden death of his mother.
Sport: MLB
Play: Pittsburgh -102 (action vs. Morton)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 11 and the Pirates are going for a sweep and their fifth straight victory. Pittsburgh should have Travis Snyder back after he served his suspension. Pirates starter Charlie Morton has been a tough-luck loser despite his 3.45 ERA. In his last turn he allowed just three hits and zero runs over eight innings. St. Louis starter Shelby Miller has walked 23 in 39.1 IP and he is 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA in six career starts against the Bucs.
Sport: NHL
Play: Minnesota/Chicago u5 +110
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The unders have hit three more times than overs in the combined games for these teams. The Wild is scoring just 2.28 goals per game on the road and Chicago is allowing only 2.15 gpg at home. Three offensive players will miss tonight's contest (Matt Moulson, Andrew Shaw and Brandon Bollig). The Blackhawks have been held to fewer than 23 shots in each of the first four games of this series.
Record: 65-41-5 (61.3%)
Play: N.Y. Rangers
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh has an excellent road record, but its goals-per-game differential is just .09 away from home. The Penguins are just 1-of-15 on the power play in this series and they could be without defensemen Olli Maatta and Brooks Orpik tonight. New York has a money goalie in Henrik Lundqvist, who has won eight of his last 10 games with his team facing elimination. I expect at least one goal out of Rick Nash. He is beyond due after a 15-game scoreless drought. The same goes for Martin St. Louis, who hasn't scored in seven straight games. St. Louis should be on an emotional high too after the sudden death of his mother.
Sport: MLB
Play: Pittsburgh -102 (action vs. Morton)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 11 and the Pirates are going for a sweep and their fifth straight victory. Pittsburgh should have Travis Snyder back after he served his suspension. Pirates starter Charlie Morton has been a tough-luck loser despite his 3.45 ERA. In his last turn he allowed just three hits and zero runs over eight innings. St. Louis starter Shelby Miller has walked 23 in 39.1 IP and he is 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA in six career starts against the Bucs.
Sport: NHL
Play: Minnesota/Chicago u5 +110
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The unders have hit three more times than overs in the combined games for these teams. The Wild is scoring just 2.28 goals per game on the road and Chicago is allowing only 2.15 gpg at home. Three offensive players will miss tonight's contest (Matt Moulson, Andrew Shaw and Brandon Bollig). The Blackhawks have been held to fewer than 23 shots in each of the first four games of this series.
Record: 65-41-5 (61.3%)
More Sunday plays
Sport: NBA
Play: Oklahoma City/L.A. Clippers under 215.5 -110
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Doc Rivers specifically mentioned defense as an area in need of improvement, so I think his Clippers squad will come out with a new agenda, thus helping the under. Both teams are above average in FG percentage allowed, in three-point defense, on the defensive glass and in steals and blocks. Their bench scoring is also below average. Russell Westbrook is shooting 58 percent but he can't keep that up. Los Angeles only has 37 fast-break points as well. And games for two of these refs average fewer than 198 points and the other ref's average game total is 201.9.
Sport: MLB
Play: Kansas City +122 (Guthrie vs. action)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mariners won two of the first three games but scored only five runs in those contests. Now Seattle will face Jeremy Guthrie, who has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last start he allowed just one run on four hits over eight innings. The Mariners likely will be without OF Michael Saunders today as he hyperextended his left knee last night.
Record: 65-41-5 (61.3%)
Play: Oklahoma City/L.A. Clippers under 215.5 -110
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Doc Rivers specifically mentioned defense as an area in need of improvement, so I think his Clippers squad will come out with a new agenda, thus helping the under. Both teams are above average in FG percentage allowed, in three-point defense, on the defensive glass and in steals and blocks. Their bench scoring is also below average. Russell Westbrook is shooting 58 percent but he can't keep that up. Los Angeles only has 37 fast-break points as well. And games for two of these refs average fewer than 198 points and the other ref's average game total is 201.9.
Sport: MLB
Play: Kansas City +122 (Guthrie vs. action)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Mariners won two of the first three games but scored only five runs in those contests. Now Seattle will face Jeremy Guthrie, who has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last start he allowed just one run on four hits over eight innings. The Mariners likely will be without OF Michael Saunders today as he hyperextended his left knee last night.
Record: 65-41-5 (61.3%)
Early Sunday play
Sport: MLB
Play: Chi. Cubs +1.5 -140 (Jackson vs. Harang)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Atlanta has scored just six runs more than it has allowed this season. It would be 11-24 if it gave 1.5 runs per game. The Braves are hitting .230 on the season (.213 in their last 10 games) and are scoring just 3.16 rpg. They also could be without Justin Upton today as he left yesterday's contest after being hit in the back by a pitch. Atlanta starter Aaron Harang has a 6.48 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in his last three starts. Chicago would be 19-16 if it was given 1.5 rpg. The Cubs have allowed just 13 more runs than they've scored in 2014. Chicago starter Edwin Jackson has a 3.78 ERA lifetime against the Braves (12 appearances, five starts). Jackson went seven innings and allowed just one run while striking out nine and walking zero in his last start (vs. the White Sox).
Record: 65-41-5 (61.3%)
Play: Chi. Cubs +1.5 -140 (Jackson vs. Harang)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Atlanta has scored just six runs more than it has allowed this season. It would be 11-24 if it gave 1.5 runs per game. The Braves are hitting .230 on the season (.213 in their last 10 games) and are scoring just 3.16 rpg. They also could be without Justin Upton today as he left yesterday's contest after being hit in the back by a pitch. Atlanta starter Aaron Harang has a 6.48 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in his last three starts. Chicago would be 19-16 if it was given 1.5 rpg. The Cubs have allowed just 13 more runs than they've scored in 2014. Chicago starter Edwin Jackson has a 3.78 ERA lifetime against the Braves (12 appearances, five starts). Jackson went seven innings and allowed just one run while striking out nine and walking zero in his last start (vs. the White Sox).
Record: 65-41-5 (61.3%)
Friday, May 9, 2014
Friday's NBA play
Play: Indiana +4.5 -101
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I figured I'd go back to the well in this series after getting a push with the Pacers in Game 2. I expect Roy Hibbert to build on his season-high 28 points scored on Wednesday night. And I like Paul George and David West to combine for their typical average of 36 points as opposed to the 20 they put up in the last one. The power rankings that I use say that Washington should be favored by 2.5 points tonight, so there is two free points when you take Indiana. The Pacers defense, which is allowing just 92.3 points per game, has severely limited Wizards guard John Wall. He is just 6-of-27 from the field in the two games.
Record: 64-41-5 (61.0%)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I figured I'd go back to the well in this series after getting a push with the Pacers in Game 2. I expect Roy Hibbert to build on his season-high 28 points scored on Wednesday night. And I like Paul George and David West to combine for their typical average of 36 points as opposed to the 20 they put up in the last one. The power rankings that I use say that Washington should be favored by 2.5 points tonight, so there is two free points when you take Indiana. The Pacers defense, which is allowing just 92.3 points per game, has severely limited Wizards guard John Wall. He is just 6-of-27 from the field in the two games.
Record: 64-41-5 (61.0%)
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Wednesday's NBA plays
Play: Indiana -4 -115
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pacers were stunned in Game 1 and I don't expect that to happen again. They are 37-9 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and are outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game in that arena. Indiana plays great defense and has advantages in rebounding, free-throw shooting and blocked shots. Washington will not go 10-of-16 on threes in this one as it did in the opener. The Wizards are just 6-16 vs. Top 10 teams this season.
Play: L.A. Clippers/Oklahoma City under 215.5 -110
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is too many points. Los Angeles will not hit a franchise playoff record 15 threes in this one like it did in Game 1. The Clippers are below average in shooting threes and so is the Thunder. Both teams are above average defending threes and overall shooting and they are above average in defensive rebounding, blocked shots and steals. Los Angeles was 17-of-30 from the free-throw line in Game 1. The average overall score involving either of these teams isn't close to this total overall or in the home/away splits. And this total is 12.1 points higher than the average score for any of these referees (Pat Fraher, Monty McCutchen, David Jones).
Record: 63-41-4 (60.6%)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pacers were stunned in Game 1 and I don't expect that to happen again. They are 37-9 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and are outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game in that arena. Indiana plays great defense and has advantages in rebounding, free-throw shooting and blocked shots. Washington will not go 10-of-16 on threes in this one as it did in the opener. The Wizards are just 6-16 vs. Top 10 teams this season.
Play: L.A. Clippers/Oklahoma City under 215.5 -110
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is too many points. Los Angeles will not hit a franchise playoff record 15 threes in this one like it did in Game 1. The Clippers are below average in shooting threes and so is the Thunder. Both teams are above average defending threes and overall shooting and they are above average in defensive rebounding, blocked shots and steals. Los Angeles was 17-of-30 from the free-throw line in Game 1. The average overall score involving either of these teams isn't close to this total overall or in the home/away splits. And this total is 12.1 points higher than the average score for any of these referees (Pat Fraher, Monty McCutchen, David Jones).
Record: 63-41-4 (60.6%)
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Tuesday's MLB play
Play: Kansas City +108 (Guthrie vs. action)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Let's try this again. The Royals should have won last night's contest after being up 3-0, 4-3 and 5-4 at various points. The Padres are last in the majors in runs scored. In the last 10 games they are hitting .157 and scoring 1.35 runs per game vs. RH. Contrast that with Kansas City hitting .280 against LH over that same time period. Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie hasn't been good (4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), but San Diego's Robbie Erlin has been worse (5.83 ERA, 1.40 WHIP overall, 7.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP in his last three starts).
Record: 62-41-4 (60.2%)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Let's try this again. The Royals should have won last night's contest after being up 3-0, 4-3 and 5-4 at various points. The Padres are last in the majors in runs scored. In the last 10 games they are hitting .157 and scoring 1.35 runs per game vs. RH. Contrast that with Kansas City hitting .280 against LH over that same time period. Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie hasn't been good (4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), but San Diego's Robbie Erlin has been worse (5.83 ERA, 1.40 WHIP overall, 7.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP in his last three starts).
Record: 62-41-4 (60.2%)
Monday, May 5, 2014
Monday's MLB play
Play: Kansas City -117 (Ventura vs. action)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Royals starter Yordan Ventura should like Petco Park. He has allowed just one home run in 30 innings and he has not allowed a run in his last two starts. He has a 1.50 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Ventura also has allowed just one earned run in two starts at hitter havens in Baltimore and Houston. He will take on a San Diego team that is hitting .209 and scoring just 2.42 runs per game vs. RH. The Padres are the lowest-scoring team in the majors and have put up four or more runs in just 10 of 32 games. San Diego starter Eric Stults has a 5.34 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. He allowed five runs in 2.2 IP in his last outing.
Record: 62-40-4 (60.8%)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Royals starter Yordan Ventura should like Petco Park. He has allowed just one home run in 30 innings and he has not allowed a run in his last two starts. He has a 1.50 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Ventura also has allowed just one earned run in two starts at hitter havens in Baltimore and Houston. He will take on a San Diego team that is hitting .209 and scoring just 2.42 runs per game vs. RH. The Padres are the lowest-scoring team in the majors and have put up four or more runs in just 10 of 32 games. San Diego starter Eric Stults has a 5.34 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. He allowed five runs in 2.2 IP in his last outing.
Record: 62-40-4 (60.8%)
Sunday, May 4, 2014
Late Sunday MLB plays
Play: Arizona/San Diego over 7 +120 (Miley vs. Ross)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres are scoring nearly one run more per game vs. LH. They have hammered Wade Miley over his career (Miley: 1-6, 5.26 ERA in nine starts against San Diego). Miley has a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts. Arizona's starters haven't allowed a run in their last 18.2 IP, but they still have an ML-worst 5.81 ERA. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 3.86 ERA. Padres starter Tyson Ross has a 1.34 WHIP and a 4.19 ERA in his last three starts. Arizona is hitting .272 over its last five games and is scoring 4.25 runs per game over its last 10 games.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Colorado under 11 -110 (Gee vs. Chacin)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Dillon Gee has a 0.86 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. The 28-year-old tossed eight shutout innings in his last outing. He has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP on the year. For Colorado, Jhoulys Chacin will make his first start of the season. In 2013 he was 14-10 with a very un-Coors-Field-like 3.47 ERA. Chacin has a 1.80 ERA lifetime against the Mets (three starts). New York is hitting just .213 against RH.
Record: 61-39-3 (61.0%)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Padres are scoring nearly one run more per game vs. LH. They have hammered Wade Miley over his career (Miley: 1-6, 5.26 ERA in nine starts against San Diego). Miley has a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts. Arizona's starters haven't allowed a run in their last 18.2 IP, but they still have an ML-worst 5.81 ERA. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 3.86 ERA. Padres starter Tyson Ross has a 1.34 WHIP and a 4.19 ERA in his last three starts. Arizona is hitting .272 over its last five games and is scoring 4.25 runs per game over its last 10 games.
Play: N.Y. Mets/Colorado under 11 -110 (Gee vs. Chacin)
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Dillon Gee has a 0.86 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. The 28-year-old tossed eight shutout innings in his last outing. He has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP on the year. For Colorado, Jhoulys Chacin will make his first start of the season. In 2013 he was 14-10 with a very un-Coors-Field-like 3.47 ERA. Chacin has a 1.80 ERA lifetime against the Mets (three starts). New York is hitting just .213 against RH.
Record: 61-39-3 (61.0%)
Early Sunday MLB play
Play: San Francisco/Atlanta over 7 -101 (Bumgarner vs. Wood)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Each of these teams hits LH much better than RH. The Braves are hitting 53 points better and scoring 1.56 more runs per game against southpaws, and the Giants are hitting 30 points better and scoring 1.07 more rpg against them. Both of these pitchers have lost three straight starts. Madison Bumgarner is fortunate that his ERA is under 4.00, because his WHIP is 1.73. In his last start he allowed San Diego to bang out seven hits and four earned runs over five innings. Alex Wood allowed Miami 10 hits and seven earned runs over five innings in his last turn. On the road the Giants bullpen has a 3.22 ERA and the Braves bullpen has a 3.19 ERA overall.
Record: 61-39-3 (61.0%)
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Each of these teams hits LH much better than RH. The Braves are hitting 53 points better and scoring 1.56 more runs per game against southpaws, and the Giants are hitting 30 points better and scoring 1.07 more rpg against them. Both of these pitchers have lost three straight starts. Madison Bumgarner is fortunate that his ERA is under 4.00, because his WHIP is 1.73. In his last start he allowed San Diego to bang out seven hits and four earned runs over five innings. Alex Wood allowed Miami 10 hits and seven earned runs over five innings in his last turn. On the road the Giants bullpen has a 3.22 ERA and the Braves bullpen has a 3.19 ERA overall.
Record: 61-39-3 (61.0%)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)