Taking the weekend off. Even handicappers need time off. Will be off the grid until Sunday.
Subscribers have been credited three days.
Record: 202-152-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.71%
Friday, October 31, 2014
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: San Francisco +1.5 -190 (Hudson vs. Guthrie)
Time: 8:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Giants would be 123-55 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Royals would be 73-103 if they gave 1.5 rpg. For our purposes, San Francisco just has to keep it close. But if any squad is going to become the first road team to win a Game 7 since 1979 (nine chances), it will be this one. Tim Hudson has better numbers (3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than Jeremy Guthrie (4.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) this season. Hudson has a 3.53 ERA in 13 career postseason appearances (12 starts) and he has walked just one in 19.1 IP this postseason. Giants relievers have better overall numbers (2.95 ERA vs. 3.27 ERA), are better in the home/away splits (3.15 ERA vs. 3.86 ERA), and they have been better lately as well (3.38 ERA vs. 5.74 ERA in last five games and 2.65 ERA vs. 3.35 ERA in last 10 games). San Francisco also has nearly as good of a road record in 2014 (48-41) than Kansas City has at home (48-40). And I like Buster Posey to get off of the schneid on Wednesday because he is a great player who has just been dormant (4-for-22 in the series with zero extra-base hits in the postseason).
Record: 201-152-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +109.40%
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
NBA: Tuesday's play
Play: Dallas +4 -107
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams last met in the playoffs last season when the Mavericks took San Antonio to seven games. This offseason Dallas got much better. The Mavs brought in Chandler Parsons (16.6 ppg), Jameer Nelson (12.1 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Tyson Chandler (8.7 ppg, 9.7 rpg) to go along with Dirk Nowitzki (21.7 ppg) and Monta Ellis (19.0 ppg, 5.7 apg). The Spurs, at least for this game, will be weaker than when we last saw them because they won't have the services of starters Kawhi Leonard (infections in both eyes) and Tiago Splitter (calf). Both Leonard and Splitter play defense and rebound and I think they will be sorely missed. Patrick Mills (shoulder) is also out until January. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in the series and it is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at AT&T Center.
Record: 200-152-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +103.69%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: These teams last met in the playoffs last season when the Mavericks took San Antonio to seven games. This offseason Dallas got much better. The Mavs brought in Chandler Parsons (16.6 ppg), Jameer Nelson (12.1 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Tyson Chandler (8.7 ppg, 9.7 rpg) to go along with Dirk Nowitzki (21.7 ppg) and Monta Ellis (19.0 ppg, 5.7 apg). The Spurs, at least for this game, will be weaker than when we last saw them because they won't have the services of starters Kawhi Leonard (infections in both eyes) and Tiago Splitter (calf). Both Leonard and Splitter play defense and rebound and I think they will be sorely missed. Patrick Mills (shoulder) is also out until January. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in the series and it is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at AT&T Center.
Record: 200-152-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +103.69%
Monday, October 27, 2014
No plays for Monday
Subscribers have had days added to their subscriptions.
Record: 200-152-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +103.69%
Record: 200-152-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +103.69%
Sunday, October 26, 2014
MLB: Sunday's play
Play: Kansas City/San Francisco under 6.5 -120 (Shields vs. Bumgarner)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: James Shields has struggled throughout the postseason, but Royals manager Ned Yost still has confidence in him and so do I that he'll pitch well tonight. He's posted a 3.51 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 2014 and the Giants score less against RH. You have far fewer worries that Madison Bumgarner will do his part, as he has a 2.74 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season. In his last three starts he has a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. In Game 1 against Kansas City he allowed one run on three hits over seven innings. Bumgarner has 33 strikeouts against six walks this postseason and he has given up just one run over 22 innings in three career World Series starts. The Royals score less against LH and, in their last five games against southpaws, they have a .170 average and are scoring 0.66 runs per game against them. Both bullpens are excellent (2.90 ERA and 3.26 ERA) and San Francisco relievers have a 1.85 ERA in their last 10 contests.
Record: 199-152-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +98.72%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: James Shields has struggled throughout the postseason, but Royals manager Ned Yost still has confidence in him and so do I that he'll pitch well tonight. He's posted a 3.51 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 2014 and the Giants score less against RH. You have far fewer worries that Madison Bumgarner will do his part, as he has a 2.74 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season. In his last three starts he has a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. In Game 1 against Kansas City he allowed one run on three hits over seven innings. Bumgarner has 33 strikeouts against six walks this postseason and he has given up just one run over 22 innings in three career World Series starts. The Royals score less against LH and, in their last five games against southpaws, they have a .170 average and are scoring 0.66 runs per game against them. Both bullpens are excellent (2.90 ERA and 3.26 ERA) and San Francisco relievers have a 1.85 ERA in their last 10 contests.
Record: 199-152-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +98.72%
Saturday, October 25, 2014
MLB: Saturday's play
Play: San Francisco -107 (action vs. Vogelsong)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Ryan Vogelsong had a bad outing in his last start (against St. Louis), but even with that he's been decent over his last six starts (4.02 ERA). Kansas City has never seen him and he has a 3.23 ERA at home and he is about a half-run better during night games. He also has made a World Series start before (in 2012 vs. Detroit), and he pitched 5.2 innings of scoreless baseball in that one. Jason Vargas endured a four-start winless stretch in September where he gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings and had to use side sessions to tweak his mechanics. And again, the Giants have the better bullpen (2.93 ERA vs. 3.14 ERA). I like Pablo Sandoval to get back on track after his 0-for-4 on Friday. Prior to that he reached base in 25 straight games. I also like Buster Posey to bust out, as he is just 2-for-13 in the series and hasn’t homered in the postseason. How long is that kid gonna remain quiet?
Record: 198-152-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.30%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Ryan Vogelsong had a bad outing in his last start (against St. Louis), but even with that he's been decent over his last six starts (4.02 ERA). Kansas City has never seen him and he has a 3.23 ERA at home and he is about a half-run better during night games. He also has made a World Series start before (in 2012 vs. Detroit), and he pitched 5.2 innings of scoreless baseball in that one. Jason Vargas endured a four-start winless stretch in September where he gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings and had to use side sessions to tweak his mechanics. And again, the Giants have the better bullpen (2.93 ERA vs. 3.14 ERA). I like Pablo Sandoval to get back on track after his 0-for-4 on Friday. Prior to that he reached base in 25 straight games. I also like Buster Posey to bust out, as he is just 2-for-13 in the series and hasn’t homered in the postseason. How long is that kid gonna remain quiet?
Record: 198-152-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.30%
Friday, October 24, 2014
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 198-152-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.30%
Record: 198-152-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.30%
Thursday, October 23, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 198-152-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.30%
Record: 198-152-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.30%
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
NHL: Wednesday's play
Play: Washington -140
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This could be a laugher. The Capitals, who are coming off of three rest days, are 3-0-0-2. The Oilers, who played on Monday, are 1-4-0-1. Washington's power-play conversion percentage is 25.0 percent. Edmonton's kill percentage is 76.2 percent. The Oilers also are oh-for-11 on power plays in their last four contests. Alex Ovechkin has five goals and an assist this season, and he has seven tallies and five assists in 12 career meetings with Edmonton. Also, the Caps' Jay Beagle is expected to make his season debut after suffering an upper-body injury during the preseason. Washington G Braden Holtby, who has a .932 save percentage, is 3-0 with a 1.00 goals-against average lifetime against the Oilers. The Capitals are scoring 3.4 goals per game and are giving up 1.80 gpg. Edmonton is scoring 2.33 gpg and is allowing 4.33 gpg (1.67 in the third period).
Record: 198-151-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +99.28%
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This could be a laugher. The Capitals, who are coming off of three rest days, are 3-0-0-2. The Oilers, who played on Monday, are 1-4-0-1. Washington's power-play conversion percentage is 25.0 percent. Edmonton's kill percentage is 76.2 percent. The Oilers also are oh-for-11 on power plays in their last four contests. Alex Ovechkin has five goals and an assist this season, and he has seven tallies and five assists in 12 career meetings with Edmonton. Also, the Caps' Jay Beagle is expected to make his season debut after suffering an upper-body injury during the preseason. Washington G Braden Holtby, who has a .932 save percentage, is 3-0 with a 1.00 goals-against average lifetime against the Oilers. The Capitals are scoring 3.4 goals per game and are giving up 1.80 gpg. Edmonton is scoring 2.33 gpg and is allowing 4.33 gpg (1.67 in the third period).
Record: 198-151-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +99.28%
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: San Francisco -105 (Bumgarner vs. action)
Time: 8:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kansas City is 8-0 this postseason, but it hasn't been to the World Series since 1985. This is the Giants' third trip in five seasons. San Francisco will send out NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner for the opener and James Shields, who had to pass a kidney stone during the ALCS, will go for the Royals. Bumgarner has pitched at least seven innings in each of his postseason starts this October and he is holding opponents to a .170 batting average over that span. He has a 1.99 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in his last three starts and has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 2014. Bumgarner also is 2-0, has allowed just five hits and hasn't allowed a run in 15 World Series innings. Shields has a .309 BAA this postseason and has a 5.62 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last three turns. Unlike Bumgarner, who has a 2.78 ERA in both day games and night games, Shields allows one more run per game at night. The Giants also have the better bullpen (2.93 ERA vs. 3.19 ERA). Look for Pablo Sandoval (.326 average in the playoffs) to pace San Francisco.
Record: 197-151-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.75%
Time: 8:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Kansas City is 8-0 this postseason, but it hasn't been to the World Series since 1985. This is the Giants' third trip in five seasons. San Francisco will send out NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner for the opener and James Shields, who had to pass a kidney stone during the ALCS, will go for the Royals. Bumgarner has pitched at least seven innings in each of his postseason starts this October and he is holding opponents to a .170 batting average over that span. He has a 1.99 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in his last three starts and has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 2014. Bumgarner also is 2-0, has allowed just five hits and hasn't allowed a run in 15 World Series innings. Shields has a .309 BAA this postseason and has a 5.62 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last three turns. Unlike Bumgarner, who has a 2.78 ERA in both day games and night games, Shields allows one more run per game at night. The Giants also have the better bullpen (2.93 ERA vs. 3.19 ERA). Look for Pablo Sandoval (.326 average in the playoffs) to pace San Francisco.
Record: 197-151-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +93.75%
Monday, October 20, 2014
NFL: Monday's play
Play: Houston +3 -110
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Texans are better and my power rankings say they should be +1 for this game. Pittsburgh has really only played one game well, its 37-19 drubbing of Carolina on Sept. 21. The Texans only have one double-digit loss (by 13 at New York on Sept. 21) and they played Indianapolis and Dallas tough in their last two. And their game against the Colts was on Thursday night, so they've had three extra days to prepare for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has been giving up big plays through the air and on the ground. Last week the Steelers allowed the Browns 158 rushing yards and tonight they will face Arian Foster, who has 513 rushing yards. Foster entered the week third in the NFL in rushing, and that was despite his missing a game and the fact that he went for only eight yards against the Bills in Week 4. In Foster's last game against Pittsburgh he ran for 155 yards. And Houston's zone-blocking scheme likely will be a problem for the Steelers, as they usually have problems with teams using that system. Pitt's outside linebackers have accummulated only five sacks and 12 QB pressures in six games, and those are low numbers for a 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh has problems on offense as well, with Ben Roethlisberger getting sacked 11 times in the last three games and 17 times overall (second-highest in the league). The Steelers also are next-to-last in the NFL in red zone offense.
Record: 197-150-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +99.74%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Texans are better and my power rankings say they should be +1 for this game. Pittsburgh has really only played one game well, its 37-19 drubbing of Carolina on Sept. 21. The Texans only have one double-digit loss (by 13 at New York on Sept. 21) and they played Indianapolis and Dallas tough in their last two. And their game against the Colts was on Thursday night, so they've had three extra days to prepare for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has been giving up big plays through the air and on the ground. Last week the Steelers allowed the Browns 158 rushing yards and tonight they will face Arian Foster, who has 513 rushing yards. Foster entered the week third in the NFL in rushing, and that was despite his missing a game and the fact that he went for only eight yards against the Bills in Week 4. In Foster's last game against Pittsburgh he ran for 155 yards. And Houston's zone-blocking scheme likely will be a problem for the Steelers, as they usually have problems with teams using that system. Pitt's outside linebackers have accummulated only five sacks and 12 QB pressures in six games, and those are low numbers for a 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh has problems on offense as well, with Ben Roethlisberger getting sacked 11 times in the last three games and 17 times overall (second-highest in the league). The Steelers also are next-to-last in the NFL in red zone offense.
Record: 197-150-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +99.74%
Sunday, October 19, 2014
NFL: Sunday's play
Play: Chicago -3 -117
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Miami lost an emotionally-draining heartbreaker last week and now it has to face a potent Bears offense and an opportunistic Bears defense. Chicago has yet to score 30 this season, but I like it to get to that mark against a Dolphins team that has to use 5-foot-10 cornerbacks to cover 6-foot-4 Brandon Marshall and 6-foot-3 Alshon Jeffery. I also like the Bears to force some turnovers, which isn't too hard against Ryan Tannehill. Chicago is third in the NFL in takeaways (12) and has scored 49 points off of those turnovers. The Bears looked great against Atlanta last week (27-13 win). Jay Cutler threw for 381 yards and Matt Forte compiled 10-plus catches for the second straight week. Forte, who had two TDs against the Falcons, leads the NFL in receptions (46). Miami will be without Knowshon Moreno (season-ending knee injury last week). The Bears are 10th in the league in run defense. Dolphins WR Brian Hartline has been a big disappointment (zero catches last week, just 16 for the season). Against Atlanta, Willie Young, Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen combined for three sacks and eight hurries and their unit allowed the Falcons just 42 rushing yards. Chicago is 7-0 when winning the turnover battle under Marc Trestman.
Record: 197-149-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +105.92%
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Miami lost an emotionally-draining heartbreaker last week and now it has to face a potent Bears offense and an opportunistic Bears defense. Chicago has yet to score 30 this season, but I like it to get to that mark against a Dolphins team that has to use 5-foot-10 cornerbacks to cover 6-foot-4 Brandon Marshall and 6-foot-3 Alshon Jeffery. I also like the Bears to force some turnovers, which isn't too hard against Ryan Tannehill. Chicago is third in the NFL in takeaways (12) and has scored 49 points off of those turnovers. The Bears looked great against Atlanta last week (27-13 win). Jay Cutler threw for 381 yards and Matt Forte compiled 10-plus catches for the second straight week. Forte, who had two TDs against the Falcons, leads the NFL in receptions (46). Miami will be without Knowshon Moreno (season-ending knee injury last week). The Bears are 10th in the league in run defense. Dolphins WR Brian Hartline has been a big disappointment (zero catches last week, just 16 for the season). Against Atlanta, Willie Young, Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen combined for three sacks and eight hurries and their unit allowed the Falcons just 42 rushing yards. Chicago is 7-0 when winning the turnover battle under Marc Trestman.
Record: 197-149-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +105.92%
Saturday, October 18, 2014
NCAAF: Saturday's play
Play: Georgia/Arkansas under 54.5 -110
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Georgia will be without RB Todd Gurley, but it still will keep it on the ground. The Bulldogs are second in the SEC in rushing (275.7 yards per game). Arkansas too will grind it out. It leads the SEC in rushing (278.7 ypg). The Razorbacks have been playing teams tough and for this one, being at home, I think they are ready to keep another one close and possibly pull off the upset. I expect big plays on defense for Arkansas, with linebacker Martrell Spaight (53 tackles), defensive end Trey Flowers (seven tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Darius Philon (seven tackles for loss) keying the unit. The Bulldogs have pitched two shutouts and are led by outside linebacker Amarlo Herrera (team-leading 47 tackles) and inside linebacker Ramik Wilson (41 tackles).
Record: 197-148-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.29%
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Georgia will be without RB Todd Gurley, but it still will keep it on the ground. The Bulldogs are second in the SEC in rushing (275.7 yards per game). Arkansas too will grind it out. It leads the SEC in rushing (278.7 ypg). The Razorbacks have been playing teams tough and for this one, being at home, I think they are ready to keep another one close and possibly pull off the upset. I expect big plays on defense for Arkansas, with linebacker Martrell Spaight (53 tackles), defensive end Trey Flowers (seven tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Darius Philon (seven tackles for loss) keying the unit. The Bulldogs have pitched two shutouts and are led by outside linebacker Amarlo Herrera (team-leading 47 tackles) and inside linebacker Ramik Wilson (41 tackles).
Record: 197-148-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.29%
Friday, October 17, 2014
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 197-148-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.29%
Record: 197-148-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.29%
Thursday, October 16, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 197-148-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.29%
Record: 197-148-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.29%
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
MLB: Wednesday's play
Play: St. Louis +103 (Miller vs. action)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I expect good things from Shelby Miller on Wednesday because he pitched well in his postseason debut against the Dodgers last week. He is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA lifetime against San Francisco, and the Giants didn't see him this season. The Cardinals did see Ryan Vogelsong this year and the right-hander went 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in two turns against them. Vogelsong is 2-6 with a 6.17 ERA in 19 career appearances (nine starts) against the St. Louis. Matt Carpenter, who has four homers this postseason, is 5-for-10 lifetime against Vogelsong. The Cardinals have five homers in the series and the Giants have zero. Kolten Wong has one of those round-trippers, as he hit a walk-off in Game 2. Wong had a two-run triple on Tuesday. And Yadier Molina (oblique) is reportedly considering a cortisone injection in an attempt to play in this one.
Record: 197-147-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +118.86%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I expect good things from Shelby Miller on Wednesday because he pitched well in his postseason debut against the Dodgers last week. He is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA lifetime against San Francisco, and the Giants didn't see him this season. The Cardinals did see Ryan Vogelsong this year and the right-hander went 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in two turns against them. Vogelsong is 2-6 with a 6.17 ERA in 19 career appearances (nine starts) against the St. Louis. Matt Carpenter, who has four homers this postseason, is 5-for-10 lifetime against Vogelsong. The Cardinals have five homers in the series and the Giants have zero. Kolten Wong has one of those round-trippers, as he hit a walk-off in Game 2. Wong had a two-run triple on Tuesday. And Yadier Molina (oblique) is reportedly considering a cortisone injection in an attempt to play in this one.
Record: 197-147-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +118.86%
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: Baltimore -108 (Chen vs. action)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My analysis is the same for this matchup as it was yesterday. Unfortunately I couldn't get it for Monday's price (+102), but it's still worth a play... No team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS after losing the first two at home, but I'm not expecting the Orioles to do that. I just like them on Tuesday. Baltimore is scoring 0.66 more runs per game vs. RH. Here they will face Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 26. The Orioles have gone 47-35 on the road in 2014. Kansas City is just 44-39 at home this season. Baltimore will start Wei-Yin Chen, and he has better numbers than Guthrie. Chen surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his last five regular-season turns. The Orioles also have the better bullpen (3.11 ERA vs. 3.24 ERA). Look for Nelson Cruz to keep up his torrid pace (multiple hits in all five of Baltimore's postseason games).
Record: 197-146-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +125.63%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My analysis is the same for this matchup as it was yesterday. Unfortunately I couldn't get it for Monday's price (+102), but it's still worth a play... No team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS after losing the first two at home, but I'm not expecting the Orioles to do that. I just like them on Tuesday. Baltimore is scoring 0.66 more runs per game vs. RH. Here they will face Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 26. The Orioles have gone 47-35 on the road in 2014. Kansas City is just 44-39 at home this season. Baltimore will start Wei-Yin Chen, and he has better numbers than Guthrie. Chen surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his last five regular-season turns. The Orioles also have the better bullpen (3.11 ERA vs. 3.24 ERA). Look for Nelson Cruz to keep up his torrid pace (multiple hits in all five of Baltimore's postseason games).
Record: 197-146-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +125.63%
Monday, October 13, 2014
MLB: Monday's play
Play: Baltimore +102 (Chen vs. action)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: No team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS after losing the first two at home, but I'm not expecting the Orioles to do that. I just like them on Monday. Baltimore is scoring 0.66 more runs per game vs. RH. Here they will face Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 26. The Orioles have gone 47-35 on the road in 2014. Kansas City is just 44-39 at home this season. Baltimore will start Wei-Yin Chen, and he has better numbers than Guthrie. Chen surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his last five regular-season turns. The Orioles also have the better bullpen (3.11 ERA vs. 3.24 ERA). Look for Nelson Cruz to keep up his torrid pace (multiple hits in all five of Baltimore's postseason games).
Record: 197-146-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +125.63%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: No team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS after losing the first two at home, but I'm not expecting the Orioles to do that. I just like them on Monday. Baltimore is scoring 0.66 more runs per game vs. RH. Here they will face Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 26. The Orioles have gone 47-35 on the road in 2014. Kansas City is just 44-39 at home this season. Baltimore will start Wei-Yin Chen, and he has better numbers than Guthrie. Chen surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his last five regular-season turns. The Orioles also have the better bullpen (3.11 ERA vs. 3.24 ERA). Look for Nelson Cruz to keep up his torrid pace (multiple hits in all five of Baltimore's postseason games).
Record: 197-146-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +125.63%
Sunday, October 12, 2014
NFL: Sunday's play
Play: Philadelphia -2.5 -115
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power rankings say the Eagles should be favored by 3.5 or 4. Philadelphia has been putting up points this season, but not just on offense. It has seven defensive and special teams TDs through five games, which ties it with the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans for the most in league history through this point in a campaign. So far this season no other team has more than two defensive and special teams TDs. LeSean McCoy has yet to get untracked, but he led the league in rushing last year and he has four career games of at least 111 yards against New York. And Darren Sproles has picked up the slack for McCoy, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. The Giants will be without RB Rashad Jennings, who sprained his MCL last week. He is fourth in the NFL in rushing (396 yards) and there is no timetable for his return. New York's defense, which has fewer sacks than the Eagles' unit, is dinged and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is battling ankle and hip injuries. Philadelphia is hopeful that LB DeMeco Ryans (groin) is good to go for this one.
Record: 196-146-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +119.89%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power rankings say the Eagles should be favored by 3.5 or 4. Philadelphia has been putting up points this season, but not just on offense. It has seven defensive and special teams TDs through five games, which ties it with the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans for the most in league history through this point in a campaign. So far this season no other team has more than two defensive and special teams TDs. LeSean McCoy has yet to get untracked, but he led the league in rushing last year and he has four career games of at least 111 yards against New York. And Darren Sproles has picked up the slack for McCoy, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. The Giants will be without RB Rashad Jennings, who sprained his MCL last week. He is fourth in the NFL in rushing (396 yards) and there is no timetable for his return. New York's defense, which has fewer sacks than the Eagles' unit, is dinged and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is battling ankle and hip injuries. Philadelphia is hopeful that LB DeMeco Ryans (groin) is good to go for this one.
Record: 196-146-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +119.89%
Friday, October 10, 2014
No plays for Saturday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 196-146-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +119.89%
Record: 196-146-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +119.89%
MLB: Friday's play
Play: Kansas City/Baltimore over 7 +101 (Shields vs. Tillman)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average about eight runs both overall and in the home/away splits. This season the Orioles led the majors in home runs and the Royals led the majors in stolen bases. James Shields has a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason turns. Baltimore hits RH better and scores 0.69 more runs per game against them. The Orioles are averaging 6.26 rpg in their last five games against RH. Nelson Cruz has 16 career postseason homers, including eight in 12 ALCS games. Chris Tillman has a 4.00 ERA in his last three starts and he's completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts.
Record: 195-146-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +113.43%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average about eight runs both overall and in the home/away splits. This season the Orioles led the majors in home runs and the Royals led the majors in stolen bases. James Shields has a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason turns. Baltimore hits RH better and scores 0.69 more runs per game against them. The Orioles are averaging 6.26 rpg in their last five games against RH. Nelson Cruz has 16 career postseason homers, including eight in 12 ALCS games. Chris Tillman has a 4.00 ERA in his last three starts and he's completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts.
Record: 195-146-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +113.43%
Thursday, October 9, 2014
No plays for Thursday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 195-146-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +113.43%
Record: 195-146-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +113.43%
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
No plays for Wednesday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 195-146-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +113.43%
Record: 195-146-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +113.43%
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
MLB: Tuesday's play
Play: San Francisco +1.5 -155 (Gonzalez vs. Vogelsong)
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Giants would be 110-52 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 70-92 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Washington hits just .241 against RH. On the road they score a quarter-run less per game against RH and hit just .225. In their last five game the Nationals have scored just 2.25 rpg. In the last five games vs. LH, San Francisco has averaged 6.75 rpg. At home Ryan Vogelsong has a 3.06 ERA. Bryce Harper is 1-for-8 lifetime against Vogelsong with four strikeouts. Pablo Sandoval has a 14-game postseason hitting streak, one shy of the NL record. Brandon Belt has an eight-game hitting streak and he is 7-for-17 this postseason. Giants relievers have a 0.82 ERA in their last 10 games and they have a 0.56 ERA in their last five games.
Record: 194-146-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +109.38%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Giants would be 110-52 if they were given 1.5 runs per game. The Nationals would be 70-92 if they gave 1.5 rpg. Washington hits just .241 against RH. On the road they score a quarter-run less per game against RH and hit just .225. In their last five game the Nationals have scored just 2.25 rpg. In the last five games vs. LH, San Francisco has averaged 6.75 rpg. At home Ryan Vogelsong has a 3.06 ERA. Bryce Harper is 1-for-8 lifetime against Vogelsong with four strikeouts. Pablo Sandoval has a 14-game postseason hitting streak, one shy of the NL record. Brandon Belt has an eight-game hitting streak and he is 7-for-17 this postseason. Giants relievers have a 0.82 ERA in their last 10 games and they have a 0.56 ERA in their last five games.
Record: 194-146-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +109.38%
Monday, October 6, 2014
NFL: Monday's play
Play: Washington +7.5 -115
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Redskins are better than their record indicates. They are in the top 10 in the league in both offense and defense and they also lead the NFL on first-down offense and defense. But turnovers have hurt them (minus-5 in the differential). Through the first four weeks Washington led the league in sacks (11). And it will face a Seattle team that is having trouble stopping pass-rushers off the edge. Seahawks LT Russell Okung is playing poorly for him and RT Justin Britt is a rookie. Also, Seattle's defense is not as good as it was last season, as the unit is missing six players from the 2013 squad (Chris Clemons, Red Bryant, Clinton McDonald, Brandon Browner, Walter Thurmond and Chris Maragos). Nickelback Jeremy Lane is still with the team, but he'll be out until midseason with a groin injury. The Seahawks also won't have TE Zach Miller on Monday, as he'll miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery.
Record: 194-145-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +115.86%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Redskins are better than their record indicates. They are in the top 10 in the league in both offense and defense and they also lead the NFL on first-down offense and defense. But turnovers have hurt them (minus-5 in the differential). Through the first four weeks Washington led the league in sacks (11). And it will face a Seattle team that is having trouble stopping pass-rushers off the edge. Seahawks LT Russell Okung is playing poorly for him and RT Justin Britt is a rookie. Also, Seattle's defense is not as good as it was last season, as the unit is missing six players from the 2013 squad (Chris Clemons, Red Bryant, Clinton McDonald, Brandon Browner, Walter Thurmond and Chris Maragos). Nickelback Jeremy Lane is still with the team, but he'll be out until midseason with a groin injury. The Seahawks also won't have TE Zach Miller on Monday, as he'll miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery.
Record: 194-145-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +115.86%
Sunday, October 5, 2014
MLB: Sunday's play
Play: L.A. Angels +121 (Wilson vs. action)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I expect both Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton to get off the schneid Sunday evening. They will face "Big Game" James Shields, he of the 2-4 record and 5.26 ERA in seven postseason starts. On Tuesday Shields allowed four runs in five-plus innings against Oakland. He has a 5.09 ERA in his last three outings. C.J. Wilson has been much better of late, posting a 3.29 ERA in his last three turns. In the regular season the Angels were better on the road (46-35) than Kansas City was at home (42-39). Los Angeles averages nearly five runs per game away from home and its bullpen's road ERA is a half-run better than the Royals relievers are at home. At home Kansas City scores a half-run less per game vs. LH.
Record: 194-144-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +122.54%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I expect both Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton to get off the schneid Sunday evening. They will face "Big Game" James Shields, he of the 2-4 record and 5.26 ERA in seven postseason starts. On Tuesday Shields allowed four runs in five-plus innings against Oakland. He has a 5.09 ERA in his last three outings. C.J. Wilson has been much better of late, posting a 3.29 ERA in his last three turns. In the regular season the Angels were better on the road (46-35) than Kansas City was at home (42-39). Los Angeles averages nearly five runs per game away from home and its bullpen's road ERA is a half-run better than the Royals relievers are at home. At home Kansas City scores a half-run less per game vs. LH.
Record: 194-144-8 (57.4%)
Bankroll: +122.54%
Saturday, October 4, 2014
NCAAF: Oklahoma-TCU
Play: TCU +5 -110
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Horned Frogs played Oklahoma close over the last two seasons (losing both games by a combined 10 points). But this time TCU's junior quarterback, Trevone Boykin, should be ready to get his team over the hump. Boykin leads the squad in rushing (183 yards) and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He's thrown for eight TDs against just one INT and he's completing 64.2 percent of his passes. His numbers are way up what they were the last two years. The Sooners likely will be without running back Keith Ford (broken fibula) for the second straight game. The Horned Frogs are second in the nation in total defense (218.7 yards per game) and they have allowed only 7.0 points per contest. Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight is still learning his role and has thrown three INTs and just four TDs. And TCU is 63-14 under coach Gary Patterson at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Record: 193-144-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +116.63%
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Horned Frogs played Oklahoma close over the last two seasons (losing both games by a combined 10 points). But this time TCU's junior quarterback, Trevone Boykin, should be ready to get his team over the hump. Boykin leads the squad in rushing (183 yards) and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He's thrown for eight TDs against just one INT and he's completing 64.2 percent of his passes. His numbers are way up what they were the last two years. The Sooners likely will be without running back Keith Ford (broken fibula) for the second straight game. The Horned Frogs are second in the nation in total defense (218.7 yards per game) and they have allowed only 7.0 points per contest. Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight is still learning his role and has thrown three INTs and just four TDs. And TCU is 63-14 under coach Gary Patterson at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Record: 193-144-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +116.63%
Thursday, October 2, 2014
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 193-144-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +116.63%
Record: 193-144-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +116.63%
MLB: Thursday's play
Play: Kansas City +1.5 -130 (Vargas vs. action)
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals would have been 114-48 if they were given 1.5 runs per game this season. The Angels would have been 71-91 if they gave 1.5 rpg in 2014. Kansas City is hot, obviously. It tied a postseason record with seven stolen bases in its thrilling 9-8 come-from-behind victory on Tuesday against Oakland. The Royals have won seven of their last nine contests and they went 47-34 on the road this season. Los Angeles went 3-7 in its last 10 games overall and it went 3-5 in its last eight home games. The Angels have averaged just 2.87 rpg in their last 10 and they are hitting .185 and are scoring only 2.30 rpg in their last five. Jason Vargas is 5-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against Los Angeles. Jered Weaver had a 3.66 ERA in five September starts and he allowed three homers to Seattle in his last turn. On the road Kansas City's bullpen has a 2.47 ERA and it has a 1.89 ERA in its last 10 games. The Angels bullpen has a 4.20 ERA in its last 10. Josh Hamilton says he's healthy, but he missed 22 of his team's last 23 games with chest and shoulder injuries. These teams split the regular-season series 3-3.
Record: 192-144-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +111.75%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Royals would have been 114-48 if they were given 1.5 runs per game this season. The Angels would have been 71-91 if they gave 1.5 rpg in 2014. Kansas City is hot, obviously. It tied a postseason record with seven stolen bases in its thrilling 9-8 come-from-behind victory on Tuesday against Oakland. The Royals have won seven of their last nine contests and they went 47-34 on the road this season. Los Angeles went 3-7 in its last 10 games overall and it went 3-5 in its last eight home games. The Angels have averaged just 2.87 rpg in their last 10 and they are hitting .185 and are scoring only 2.30 rpg in their last five. Jason Vargas is 5-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against Los Angeles. Jered Weaver had a 3.66 ERA in five September starts and he allowed three homers to Seattle in his last turn. On the road Kansas City's bullpen has a 2.47 ERA and it has a 1.89 ERA in its last 10 games. The Angels bullpen has a 4.20 ERA in its last 10. Josh Hamilton says he's healthy, but he missed 22 of his team's last 23 games with chest and shoulder injuries. These teams split the regular-season series 3-3.
Record: 192-144-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +111.75%
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
No plays for Wednesday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 192-144-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +111.75%
Record: 192-144-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +111.75%
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