Play: Connecticut/Florida over 126.5 -108
Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is the third-lowest total the Huskies have faced all season and it's the ninth-lowest for Florida. Games for both teams average more points than this figure both in the overall and the away-from-home splits. UConn's overall average is 136.1 ppg, its away average is 137.0 ppg, its neutral site average is 137.3 ppg and its last-five-game average is 143.0 ppg. I think this game will have a chance to go to overtime because the Huskies hit threes and free throws. But instead of taking UConn and the points, the over is the better play.
Play: Wisconsin +2 -109
Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The power rankings that I use say the Badgers should be favored by 2.5 points. They went 12-4 this season against Top 50 teams and played a tougher schedule than Kentucky, which went 7-8 vs. Top 50 teams. Willie Cauley-Stein (ankle) will likely miss his second straight game and I think the Wildcats need him to get by Wisconsin. He has 106 blocks this season and his next closest teammate had just 30. The Badgers have advantages in free-throw and three-point shooting.
Record: 38-21-3 (64.4%)
Monday, March 31, 2014
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Monday's MLB play
Play: Detroit -150 (Verlander vs. action)
Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Justin Verlander had offseason core muscle surgery that should allow him to have a better year than he did in 2013. So far so good, as he didn't allow a run and just eight hits in 20 spring innings. Verlander is 16-5 with a 2.85 ERA in 29 career starts against Kansas City. The Royals will send out James Shields and he has struggled against the Tigers. He has a 4.12 ERA in 14 career starts against Detroit. And Miguel Cabrera has owned Shields, having hit .425 in 40 career at-bats against him.
Record: 37-21-3 (63.8%)
Sunday's MLB play
Play: San Diego +102 (Cashner vs. action)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Relatively big things are expected this season out of the Padres, who went 16-11 in September. Tonight they will send out Andrew Cashner and he has been a pain in the sides of the Dodgers. They cannot hit him. In three career starts against L.A., all of which came last season, Cashner has allowed two earned runs over 22 innings while striking out 16. He has a 1.32 ERA in 14 appearances lifetime vs. the Dodgers. And Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig are a comined 2-for-20 lifetime against him. The Dodgers will start Hyun-Jin Ryu, but he is not 100 percent (toe). Also, Los Angeles' bullpen was rocked in its first two games (7.11 ERA).
Record: 36-21-3 (63.2%)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Relatively big things are expected this season out of the Padres, who went 16-11 in September. Tonight they will send out Andrew Cashner and he has been a pain in the sides of the Dodgers. They cannot hit him. In three career starts against L.A., all of which came last season, Cashner has allowed two earned runs over 22 innings while striking out 16. He has a 1.32 ERA in 14 appearances lifetime vs. the Dodgers. And Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig are a comined 2-for-20 lifetime against him. The Dodgers will start Hyun-Jin Ryu, but he is not 100 percent (toe). Also, Los Angeles' bullpen was rocked in its first two games (7.11 ERA).
Record: 36-21-3 (63.2%)
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Thursday's NCAAB play
Play: SDSU/Arizona over 121.5 -105
Time: 10:17 p.m. ET
Reasoning: San Diego State road games average 131.7 points and Wildcats road contests average 133.1 points. Arizona can shoot the lights out, hitting 47.1% on field goals. Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass and both get to the free-throw line. When these squads faced off on Nov. 14, they combined for 129 points. And that was with the Aztecs shooting just 36% and the Wildcats hitting just three of 13 three-pointers. Arizona normally cans 36.1% of its threes.
Record: 35-21-3 (62.5%)
Time: 10:17 p.m. ET
Reasoning: San Diego State road games average 131.7 points and Wildcats road contests average 133.1 points. Arizona can shoot the lights out, hitting 47.1% on field goals. Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass and both get to the free-throw line. When these squads faced off on Nov. 14, they combined for 129 points. And that was with the Aztecs shooting just 36% and the Wildcats hitting just three of 13 three-pointers. Arizona normally cans 36.1% of its threes.
Record: 35-21-3 (62.5%)
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Wednesday's NBA play
Play: Memphis/Utah over 183 -105
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a low total even by the Grizzlies' standards. Memphis games average 189.7 points. Tonight it will face a Jazz team that averages 97.5 ppg at home and that has allowed 108.8 ppg in its last five contests. Utah home games average 197.9 points. Both teams are below average in blocked shots. And games for the referees in this one (Josh Tiven, Kevin Cutler and Marc Davis) average more than 202 points.
Record: 35-20-3 (63.6%)
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is a low total even by the Grizzlies' standards. Memphis games average 189.7 points. Tonight it will face a Jazz team that averages 97.5 ppg at home and that has allowed 108.8 ppg in its last five contests. Utah home games average 197.9 points. Both teams are below average in blocked shots. And games for the referees in this one (Josh Tiven, Kevin Cutler and Marc Davis) average more than 202 points.
Record: 35-20-3 (63.6%)
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Tuesday's NBA play
Play: Toronto/Cleveland over 194.5 -110
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over this number both overall and in the home/away splits. Each team is above average in offensive rebounding and the last five Raptors games have averaged 218.2 points. The referees for this contest (Haywood Workman, Sean Wright and Mark Lindsay) have me liking the over, as the average combined score in games officiated by those zebras is 202 points.
Record: 34-20-3 (63.0%)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over this number both overall and in the home/away splits. Each team is above average in offensive rebounding and the last five Raptors games have averaged 218.2 points. The referees for this contest (Haywood Workman, Sean Wright and Mark Lindsay) have me liking the over, as the average combined score in games officiated by those zebras is 202 points.
Record: 34-20-3 (63.0%)
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Sunday's NCAAB play
Play: Duke -1 -110
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Duke led the ACC in scoring this season and hits 39.1% of its three-pointers. Virginia is susceptible from beyond the arc, as it has allowed 39.3% shooting on threes when on the road this season. The Cavaliers don't have the offensive firepower to hang with the Blue Devils. Virginia's leading scorer is Malcolm Brogdon (12.4 ppg). On defense Duke is no slouch, as it severely limited ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren in its last game. The Blue Devils have a huge advantage in free-throw shooting and will have what amounts to a home-court advantage since the game is being played in Greensboro, N.C.
Record: 34-19-3 (64.2%)
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Duke led the ACC in scoring this season and hits 39.1% of its three-pointers. Virginia is susceptible from beyond the arc, as it has allowed 39.3% shooting on threes when on the road this season. The Cavaliers don't have the offensive firepower to hang with the Blue Devils. Virginia's leading scorer is Malcolm Brogdon (12.4 ppg). On defense Duke is no slouch, as it severely limited ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren in its last game. The Blue Devils have a huge advantage in free-throw shooting and will have what amounts to a home-court advantage since the game is being played in Greensboro, N.C.
Record: 34-19-3 (64.2%)
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Tuesday's NBA Play
Play: Indiana -11 -110
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I normally don't like laying this many points, but I'll make an exception here. The Pacers should right their ship Tuesday night when they take on a Boston team that is 8-22 on the road. I expect Indiana to win by 20 or more. The Pacers are 3-0 against the Celtics this season and beat Boston by five and 15 points, respectively, in their meetings at Boston. At home on Dec. 22, Indy won by 27. The Pacers' average margin of victory at home is 13 points. They have the league's best defense and will dominate on the glass. The Celts allow opponents to shoot 46.6% from the field and I think they will be lucky to score 85 in this one.
Record: 34-19-2 (64.2%)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I normally don't like laying this many points, but I'll make an exception here. The Pacers should right their ship Tuesday night when they take on a Boston team that is 8-22 on the road. I expect Indiana to win by 20 or more. The Pacers are 3-0 against the Celtics this season and beat Boston by five and 15 points, respectively, in their meetings at Boston. At home on Dec. 22, Indy won by 27. The Pacers' average margin of victory at home is 13 points. They have the league's best defense and will dominate on the glass. The Celts allow opponents to shoot 46.6% from the field and I think they will be lucky to score 85 in this one.
Record: 34-19-2 (64.2%)
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Sunday's NHL play
Play: Minnesota +120
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Wild have won five of their last six games and are 22-7-1-1 at home. They are a completely different team at home, allowing just 1.97 GPG. They will face a St. Louis team that has scored just 12 goals in six games since the Olympic break. The Blues have scored on just 5.7% of their power plays in the last 10 games. Minnesota? Try 25% on power plays over that same period.
Record: 34-18-2 (65.4%)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Wild have won five of their last six games and are 22-7-1-1 at home. They are a completely different team at home, allowing just 1.97 GPG. They will face a St. Louis team that has scored just 12 goals in six games since the Olympic break. The Blues have scored on just 5.7% of their power plays in the last 10 games. Minnesota? Try 25% on power plays over that same period.
Record: 34-18-2 (65.4%)
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Thursday's NBA play
Play: Miami/San Antonio under 208 -110
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think this line is five or six points too high. Games for each team average 203.1 points and 202.3 points, respectively. Games for the three referees (Sean Corbin, Kevin Scott, Scott Foster) average about 201 points. The teams combined for 214 points in the first meeting this year, but the Spurs were without three starters (Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard). They will have more of a defensive presence now. Neither team shoots many free throws and both teams are horrendous on the offensive glass. So say goodbye to easy buckets and second-chance points.
Record: 33-18-2 (64.7%)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I think this line is five or six points too high. Games for each team average 203.1 points and 202.3 points, respectively. Games for the three referees (Sean Corbin, Kevin Scott, Scott Foster) average about 201 points. The teams combined for 214 points in the first meeting this year, but the Spurs were without three starters (Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard). They will have more of a defensive presence now. Neither team shoots many free throws and both teams are horrendous on the offensive glass. So say goodbye to easy buckets and second-chance points.
Record: 33-18-2 (64.7%)
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Tuesday's NCAAB plays
Play: Akron -2 -110 and Buffalo/Akron over 135.5 -110
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Zips are 11-2 at home and are outscoring visitors by eight points a game. Neither team has played well defensively of late and the teams combined for 186 points (not a misprint) on Feb. 19. Bulls games 140.2 points overall and 148.4 in their last five contests. Akron games average 133.5 points. I think Buffalo's defense is a little worse for wear in that it has given up 70.2 ppg and 37.7% on threes in its last five games. The Zips also have played a considerably tougher schedule.
Play: Virginia Tech/Maryland over 130.5 -110
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Hokies games average 131.8 points while Terrapins tilts average 139.6 points. The teams combined for 140 in the first meeting, but that was with Maryland cruising toward a blowout. Virginia Tech has lost 16 of 18 but four of their last five losses have been by a combined 20 points. And two of those games were against Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Look for Jarell Eddie (13.4 ppg) to score for the Hokies and Seth Allen (42 points in his last two games) to put up baskets for the Terps. Both teams are good on the offensive glass and both shoot and make a lot of threes.
Play: Arizona State/Oregon over 147 -110
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The first meeting on Feb. 8 saw 146 combined points despite Oregon being held to 23 in the first half and the teams going a combined 9-of-39 (23.1%) from behind the arc. Sundevils road games average 148.0 points while Ducks home contests average 159.0 points. Oregon is 10th in the nation in scoring (82.8 ppg). These teams both take a lot of threes and hit a lot of them (38.8% and 38.2%, respectively). Arizona State's Jordan Bachynski scored 26 in the first game and Ducks guard Joseph Young is second in the Pac-12 in scoring (18.8 ppg).
Record: 30-17-2 (63.8%)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Zips are 11-2 at home and are outscoring visitors by eight points a game. Neither team has played well defensively of late and the teams combined for 186 points (not a misprint) on Feb. 19. Bulls games 140.2 points overall and 148.4 in their last five contests. Akron games average 133.5 points. I think Buffalo's defense is a little worse for wear in that it has given up 70.2 ppg and 37.7% on threes in its last five games. The Zips also have played a considerably tougher schedule.
Play: Virginia Tech/Maryland over 130.5 -110
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Hokies games average 131.8 points while Terrapins tilts average 139.6 points. The teams combined for 140 in the first meeting, but that was with Maryland cruising toward a blowout. Virginia Tech has lost 16 of 18 but four of their last five losses have been by a combined 20 points. And two of those games were against Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Look for Jarell Eddie (13.4 ppg) to score for the Hokies and Seth Allen (42 points in his last two games) to put up baskets for the Terps. Both teams are good on the offensive glass and both shoot and make a lot of threes.
Play: Arizona State/Oregon over 147 -110
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The first meeting on Feb. 8 saw 146 combined points despite Oregon being held to 23 in the first half and the teams going a combined 9-of-39 (23.1%) from behind the arc. Sundevils road games average 148.0 points while Ducks home contests average 159.0 points. Oregon is 10th in the nation in scoring (82.8 ppg). These teams both take a lot of threes and hit a lot of them (38.8% and 38.2%, respectively). Arizona State's Jordan Bachynski scored 26 in the first game and Ducks guard Joseph Young is second in the Pac-12 in scoring (18.8 ppg).
Record: 30-17-2 (63.8%)
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Sunday's NCAAB plays
Plays: Florida State -9.5 -105 and FSU/Georgia Tech over 132.5 -105
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Seminoles are coming off of a big win at Pittsburgh. They have won eight straight against the Yellow Jackets and have covered in four of the last five meetings. FSU has a distinct shooting advantage overall, on threes and from the line. It has outscored visitors by an average of 12.4 ppg. Georgia Tech games average 133.3 points while 'noles games average 136.5. The Yellow Jackets have been outscored by about nine ppg in their last five contests, but they've also hit 40.8% of their threes. At home, FSU hits 41.3% of its threes. I expect Georgia Tech's Trae Golden, who was held scoreless and was oh-for-10 from the field against Notre Dame on Wednesday, to make a few shots and get close to or eclipse his team-leading season average of 12.6 ppg. The Yellow Jackets will break out in the scoring department but Florida State will counter and I expect it will win this by 15 points.
Record: 28-17-2 (62.2%)
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Seminoles are coming off of a big win at Pittsburgh. They have won eight straight against the Yellow Jackets and have covered in four of the last five meetings. FSU has a distinct shooting advantage overall, on threes and from the line. It has outscored visitors by an average of 12.4 ppg. Georgia Tech games average 133.3 points while 'noles games average 136.5. The Yellow Jackets have been outscored by about nine ppg in their last five contests, but they've also hit 40.8% of their threes. At home, FSU hits 41.3% of its threes. I expect Georgia Tech's Trae Golden, who was held scoreless and was oh-for-10 from the field against Notre Dame on Wednesday, to make a few shots and get close to or eclipse his team-leading season average of 12.6 ppg. The Yellow Jackets will break out in the scoring department but Florida State will counter and I expect it will win this by 15 points.
Record: 28-17-2 (62.2%)
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Saturday's NCAAB plays
Play: Gonzaga/Saint Mary's over 133.5 -110
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both squads shoot the lights out from behind the arc (39.2% and 38.2%, respectively). As a result they also take a lot of attempts, and that's why they are such high-scoring teams. Bulldogs games average 141.2 points while Gaels tilts average 138.7 points. This is the second-lowest total Gonzaga has faced this season while it's the fourth-lowest number Saint Mary's has gone against.
Play: San Diego State -4 -107
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Aztecs offense is led by Xavier Thames, who has struggled in the scoring department of late, but I expect him to get well against the Bulldogs. He had 28 against them last month. Thames hasn't committed a turnover in five games. SDSU is 38-17-2 ATS (69.1%) in its last 57 road contests. In this one the Aztecs have a huge rebounding advantage and can neutralize Fresno State's long-range shooting. The power rankings I use say this spread should be 6.5 points.
Record: 27-16-2 (62.8%)
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Both squads shoot the lights out from behind the arc (39.2% and 38.2%, respectively). As a result they also take a lot of attempts, and that's why they are such high-scoring teams. Bulldogs games average 141.2 points while Gaels tilts average 138.7 points. This is the second-lowest total Gonzaga has faced this season while it's the fourth-lowest number Saint Mary's has gone against.
Play: San Diego State -4 -107
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Aztecs offense is led by Xavier Thames, who has struggled in the scoring department of late, but I expect him to get well against the Bulldogs. He had 28 against them last month. Thames hasn't committed a turnover in five games. SDSU is 38-17-2 ATS (69.1%) in its last 57 road contests. In this one the Aztecs have a huge rebounding advantage and can neutralize Fresno State's long-range shooting. The power rankings I use say this spread should be 6.5 points.
Record: 27-16-2 (62.8%)
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