Saturday, January 31, 2015
NCAAB: Saturday's 7 p.m. ET play
Play: Alabama/Kentucky over 120 -110
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Since getting destroyed by the Wildcats at home on Jan. 17, the Crimson Tide
have put up 91 points in a loss at Arkansas, have beaten Auburn and they lost by only two points vs. Florida. Alabama could stay in this (and thus help the over) because it is an above-average shooting club that has hit on 36.2% of its threes over the last five contests. Speaking of hot from the perimeter, Kentucky has canned 43.9% of its treys over its last five. Games for both teams average a lot more points in the home/away splits (139.6 and 128.8, respectively) than they do overall. The Tide have shot 53.8% from inside the arc and they have converted 73.9% of their free throws. The Wildcats get points from everyone and they, along with Alabama, get to the free-throw line a bunch.
Record: 260-195-9 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +182.88%
NCAAB: Saturday's 3:15 p.m. ET play
Play: Rutgers/Indiana under 142 -105
Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This could be another blowout like the Villanova/DePaul game because of Rutgers' postponed tilt against Michigan State. The Scarlet Knights shot just 29.1% on Thursday at home in the 71-51 loss to the Spartans. Rutgers averages only 58.9 ppg overall and has averaged just 50.7 over its last three. Leading scorer Myles Mack has totaled just 15 points (on 5-of-21 shooting) in the last two. But defensively the Scarlet Knights allow only 63.5 points on 40.9% shooting. The Hoosiers shot only 37.9% on Wednesday. And Indiana has held opponents to 28.5% shooting on threes in 13 home games.
Record: 260-195-9 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +182.88%
NCAAB: Saturday's 2 p.m. ET play
Play: Villanova/DePaul under 144.5 -110
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: DePaul was supposed to play last Tuesday, but a blizzard postponed that game at Providence and the teams played on Thursday instead. So the Blue Demons have had just one day to prepare for the Wildcats, which have had five days to prepare for DePaul. If this is a blowout, a real possibility, I think it only helps the under. I won't bet on it being a rout, however, given that the Blue Demons are excellent from the free-throw line (74.3%) and because they've allowed opponents just 21.4% shooting from behind the arc in their last five. Additionally, Villanova also plays excellent perimeter defense and has allowed opponents just 62.8 ppg over its last five. The Wildcats are coming off of a 71-50 drubbing of Creighton, who they held to just 14 points in the first half. On January 10 these teams combined for only 125 points.Villanova games average 136.5 points and DePaul games average 146.3 points.
Record: 260-195-9 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +182.88%
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: DePaul was supposed to play last Tuesday, but a blizzard postponed that game at Providence and the teams played on Thursday instead. So the Blue Demons have had just one day to prepare for the Wildcats, which have had five days to prepare for DePaul. If this is a blowout, a real possibility, I think it only helps the under. I won't bet on it being a rout, however, given that the Blue Demons are excellent from the free-throw line (74.3%) and because they've allowed opponents just 21.4% shooting from behind the arc in their last five. Additionally, Villanova also plays excellent perimeter defense and has allowed opponents just 62.8 ppg over its last five. The Wildcats are coming off of a 71-50 drubbing of Creighton, who they held to just 14 points in the first half. On January 10 these teams combined for only 125 points.Villanova games average 136.5 points and DePaul games average 146.3 points.
Record: 260-195-9 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +182.88%
Thursday, January 29, 2015
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 260-195-9 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +182.88%
Record: 260-195-9 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +182.88%
NBA: Thursday's play
Play: Denver/Memphis over 199 -103
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Memphis has one of the NBA's best frontcourts now that Jeff Green has joined the fray. He has averaged 12.9 ppg in eight games with the Grizzlies since coming over from Boston. Alongside Green are Marc Gasol (18.9 ppg) and Zach Randolph (17.1 ppg). Memphis was without Randolph because of a sore knee in the first meeting with the Nuggets on Jan. 3. One player who did face Denver that night was Tony Allen. But the defensive specialist is questionable on Thursday because of an ankle injury. The Grizzlies have another scorer in Courtney Lee (11.3 ppg) and Vince Carter and Nick Calathes combined for 25 points in Tuesday's 109-90 victory at Dallas. Green is averaging 17.3 ppg in his last three meetings with the Nuggets. Denver has five guys scoring in double figures, led by the backcourt duo of Ty Lawson (16.8 ppg) and Arron Afflalo (15.3 ppg). Afflalo has recorded at least 20 points in three of his last five tilts and he and Lawson combined for 48 points in that last meeting with Memphis. The Nuggets played last night and their second game of back-to-backs average 202.5 points. Denver road games average 204.1 points. Grizzlies home contests average 201.4 points. The Nuggets record 12.2 offensive rebounds per game. Memphis shoots well and is hitting 47.4% at home. Both squads get to the line and make their free throws.
Record: 260-194-9 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +191.63%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Memphis has one of the NBA's best frontcourts now that Jeff Green has joined the fray. He has averaged 12.9 ppg in eight games with the Grizzlies since coming over from Boston. Alongside Green are Marc Gasol (18.9 ppg) and Zach Randolph (17.1 ppg). Memphis was without Randolph because of a sore knee in the first meeting with the Nuggets on Jan. 3. One player who did face Denver that night was Tony Allen. But the defensive specialist is questionable on Thursday because of an ankle injury. The Grizzlies have another scorer in Courtney Lee (11.3 ppg) and Vince Carter and Nick Calathes combined for 25 points in Tuesday's 109-90 victory at Dallas. Green is averaging 17.3 ppg in his last three meetings with the Nuggets. Denver has five guys scoring in double figures, led by the backcourt duo of Ty Lawson (16.8 ppg) and Arron Afflalo (15.3 ppg). Afflalo has recorded at least 20 points in three of his last five tilts and he and Lawson combined for 48 points in that last meeting with Memphis. The Nuggets played last night and their second game of back-to-backs average 202.5 points. Denver road games average 204.1 points. Grizzlies home contests average 201.4 points. The Nuggets record 12.2 offensive rebounds per game. Memphis shoots well and is hitting 47.4% at home. Both squads get to the line and make their free throws.
Record: 260-194-9 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +191.63%
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
NCAAB: Wednesday's play
Play: Notre Dame +1.5 -110
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Irish are very good but they also have fight in them. They have won four straight and have erased deficits of 12 or more points in three of those victories. Notre Dame (19-2 overall, 7-1 ACC) defeated Duke 79-77 in its conference debut last season, and the Irish are off to their best 21-game start since 1973-74. They have the nation's most-efficient offense with the best assist-to-turnover ratio (Notre Dame: 1.72, National Average: 0.98). The Irish have four guys who can knock down threes and with moving the ball so well on offense that could spell doom for the 2-3 zone defense that the Blue Devils have employed over their last three games. Notre Dame shoots better than Duke (52.1%, second-best in the country) and it leads the league in three-point shooting (40.0% and 9.0 made threes per game). Jerian Grant is the leading scorer for the ACC's highest-scoring offense (81.9 ppg). Grant missed last season's win over the Blue Devils because of academic suspension. The Irish play better defense, are better from the line and they can hang with Duke in the rebounding department. Also, could the Blue Devils be ripe for a letdown after getting Mike Krzyzewski his 1,000th win on Sunday? Notre Dame is outscoring opponents by 23.6 ppg at home.
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Irish are very good but they also have fight in them. They have won four straight and have erased deficits of 12 or more points in three of those victories. Notre Dame (19-2 overall, 7-1 ACC) defeated Duke 79-77 in its conference debut last season, and the Irish are off to their best 21-game start since 1973-74. They have the nation's most-efficient offense with the best assist-to-turnover ratio (Notre Dame: 1.72, National Average: 0.98). The Irish have four guys who can knock down threes and with moving the ball so well on offense that could spell doom for the 2-3 zone defense that the Blue Devils have employed over their last three games. Notre Dame shoots better than Duke (52.1%, second-best in the country) and it leads the league in three-point shooting (40.0% and 9.0 made threes per game). Jerian Grant is the leading scorer for the ACC's highest-scoring offense (81.9 ppg). Grant missed last season's win over the Blue Devils because of academic suspension. The Irish play better defense, are better from the line and they can hang with Duke in the rebounding department. Also, could the Blue Devils be ripe for a letdown after getting Mike Krzyzewski his 1,000th win on Sunday? Notre Dame is outscoring opponents by 23.6 ppg at home.
Record: 259-194-9 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +183.88%
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
NBA: Tuesday's 10:30 p.m. ET play
Play: Chicago +9.5 -105
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Bulls (29-17) have been better on the road than they've been at home. As underdogs last week they routed San Antonio and bested the Mavericks in Dallas. Chicago also has road wins at Memphis and the L.A. Clippers this season. Golden State barely got by Boston on Sunday and the Warriors nearly blew a 13-point lead in the final 2:24. Klay Thompson scored the team's final seven points in the victory, but he'll be guarded by Jimmy Butler here. The Bulls have Joakim Noah back from an ankle injury and should have the rebounding edge. They also are monsters on the offensive glass. Pau Gasol has recorded six straight double-doubles.
Record: 257-194-9 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +168.52%
Bankroll: +168.52%
NBA: Tuesday's 7:30 p.m. ET play
Play: Milwaukee/Miami over 183 -105
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Heat still have a big three who can score in Dwayne Wade (21.7 ppg), Chris Bosh (21.2) and Luol Deng (14.3). Hassan Whiteside has been dominant in his last nine games, averaging 12.3 points on 70.4% shooting while notching three double-doubles and one triple-double. Wade scored 26 on Sunday and recorded 28 points and eight assists against the Bucks in the December meeting. He missed the first matchup this season with a strained hamstring. Milwaukee, which boasts one of the NBA's best benches (43.5 ppg), has averaged 98.3 points in its last three contests. The Bucks' scoring success can be attributed to sharing the ball on the offensive end (62 assists over their last two tilts). This is the lowest total either club has gone against in 2014-15. Miami games average 189.1 ppg overall and 190.5 at home. Milwaukee contests average 195.2 ppg overall and 197.1 on the road. Both teams are above average in shooting overall and they are even better in the home/away splits.
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Heat still have a big three who can score in Dwayne Wade (21.7 ppg), Chris Bosh (21.2) and Luol Deng (14.3). Hassan Whiteside has been dominant in his last nine games, averaging 12.3 points on 70.4% shooting while notching three double-doubles and one triple-double. Wade scored 26 on Sunday and recorded 28 points and eight assists against the Bucks in the December meeting. He missed the first matchup this season with a strained hamstring. Milwaukee, which boasts one of the NBA's best benches (43.5 ppg), has averaged 98.3 points in its last three contests. The Bucks' scoring success can be attributed to sharing the ball on the offensive end (62 assists over their last two tilts). This is the lowest total either club has gone against in 2014-15. Miami games average 189.1 ppg overall and 190.5 at home. Milwaukee contests average 195.2 ppg overall and 197.1 on the road. Both teams are above average in shooting overall and they are even better in the home/away splits.
Record: 257-194-9 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +168.52%
Bankroll: +168.52%
Sunday, January 25, 2015
No plays for Monday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 257-194-9 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +168.52%
Bankroll: +168.52%
NBA: Sunday's play
Play: Minnesota +18.5 -108
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Timberwolves stink and the Hawks are great, but this is just too many points. This is the biggest spread Atlanta has faced all season. It's played the fourth-easiest schedule and it's 3-4 ATS when laying eight or more points. Minnesota got C Nikola Pekovic back on Wednesday after a 31-game absence and G Kevin Martin (wrist) may play in this one. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 20.1 ppg over his last 16. The Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six when receiving double-digits, including outright winners at Denver and Indiana. Minnesota is excellent on the offensive glass (12.2 per game) and Atlanta is terrible (8.5) in that department. The Timberwolves get to the free-throw line as well.
Record: 255-194-9 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +154.19%
Bankroll: +154.19%
NCAAB: Sunday's play
Play: Duke -7 -105
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: D'Angelo Harrison, who is by far the best all-around player for St. John's and its leading scorer at 19.5 ppg, is slowed with a calf injury. The Blue Devils (16-2) are coming off of consecutive victories (at Louisville and vs. Pittsburgh) in which they played mostly a 2-3 zone. In doing so they held those two opponents to 52 and 65 points, respectively, and a combined 7-of-35 shooting mark on threes. Duke averages 81.8 ppg. It shoots and makes a ton of threes and it gets to the foul line. The Blue Devils’ starting backcourt (Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones) is a combined 60-of-64 from the line over the last nine contests. Duke is outrebounding opponents by 7.1 per game and it averages 11.1 offensive boards. The Red Storm has been outrebounded by 8.6 per game over its last five. Blue Devils freshman Jahlil Okafor (18.6 ppg) ranks second in the country in field-goal percentage (67.0%).
Record: 255-194-9 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +154.19%
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: D'Angelo Harrison, who is by far the best all-around player for St. John's and its leading scorer at 19.5 ppg, is slowed with a calf injury. The Blue Devils (16-2) are coming off of consecutive victories (at Louisville and vs. Pittsburgh) in which they played mostly a 2-3 zone. In doing so they held those two opponents to 52 and 65 points, respectively, and a combined 7-of-35 shooting mark on threes. Duke averages 81.8 ppg. It shoots and makes a ton of threes and it gets to the foul line. The Blue Devils’ starting backcourt (Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones) is a combined 60-of-64 from the line over the last nine contests. Duke is outrebounding opponents by 7.1 per game and it averages 11.1 offensive boards. The Red Storm has been outrebounded by 8.6 per game over its last five. Blue Devils freshman Jahlil Okafor (18.6 ppg) ranks second in the country in field-goal percentage (67.0%).
Record: 255-194-9 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +154.19%
Saturday, January 24, 2015
NBA: Saturday's play
Play: Detroit/Milwaukee over 194 -105
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pistons are coming off their highest-scoring game of the season, a 128-118 victory on Wednesday vs. Orlando. They have five guys averaging double-figures in scoring, led by the big threesome of Brandon Jennings, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Against the Magic Jennings became the first player since 2009 to have a 20-point, 20 assist game and he, Monroe and Drummond combined for 74 points. Jennings also missed both of the matchups with the Bucks earlier this season and he has averaged 19.4 points and 9.4 assists in five other meetings against his former club. Drummond had scored 49 points and grabbed 30 rebounds in his last two tilts against Milwaukee. In the last 15 contests, Jodie Meeks and Kyle Singler have shot 44.3% from behind the arc. The Bucks are still without their defensive anchor, Larry Sanders (drug suspension), and they are above average in shooting from the field, on threes and from the line. Games for both teams average more than 194 points both overall and in the home/away splits. Games for all three referees for this one (Bill Kennedy, John Goble and Courtney Kirkland) average at least 202 points. Detroit is outstanding on the offensive glass (12.8 per game) and at home the Bucks average 12.3 offensive rebounds.
Record: 255-193-9 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +162.05%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Pistons are coming off their highest-scoring game of the season, a 128-118 victory on Wednesday vs. Orlando. They have five guys averaging double-figures in scoring, led by the big threesome of Brandon Jennings, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Against the Magic Jennings became the first player since 2009 to have a 20-point, 20 assist game and he, Monroe and Drummond combined for 74 points. Jennings also missed both of the matchups with the Bucks earlier this season and he has averaged 19.4 points and 9.4 assists in five other meetings against his former club. Drummond had scored 49 points and grabbed 30 rebounds in his last two tilts against Milwaukee. In the last 15 contests, Jodie Meeks and Kyle Singler have shot 44.3% from behind the arc. The Bucks are still without their defensive anchor, Larry Sanders (drug suspension), and they are above average in shooting from the field, on threes and from the line. Games for both teams average more than 194 points both overall and in the home/away splits. Games for all three referees for this one (Bill Kennedy, John Goble and Courtney Kirkland) average at least 202 points. Detroit is outstanding on the offensive glass (12.8 per game) and at home the Bucks average 12.3 offensive rebounds.
Record: 255-193-9 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +162.05%
Friday, January 23, 2015
NBA: Friday's play
Play: Houston/Phoenix under 220.5 -107
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This is the highest total either team has gone against this season. Only two out of the Rockets' 43 games have seen totals above 209. Contests involving Houston average 201.9 points overall and 209.2 points on the road. Tilts involving the Suns average 212.3 points overall and 210.3 points at home. Both squads take a ton of threes, but neither makes a ton of them. The Rockets are terrible from the line (71.4%) and Phoenix is below average in free throw attempts (21.8). Houston won the first meeting this season 100-95. Six straight overs by the Rockets have helped prompt this total, but it's just too many points.
Record: 255-192-9 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +170.15%
Thursday, January 22, 2015
NBA: Thursday's play
Play: L.A. Clippers -11.5 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Los Angeles (28-14) hasn't played outside the Pacific Time Zone since Dec. 23. It is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after receiving two rest days. Brooklyn (18-24) played Wednesday night, and it won 103-100 at Sacramento. But in doing so it nearly blew a 23-point lead. The Nets have played the second-easiest schedule in the NBA. They have lost eight of 10 and will be without Deron Williams (ribs), their third-leading scorer and assists leader, for the eighth straight game. Brooklyn has managed just 90.2 ppg in dropping five of its last six on the second of back-to-backs. DeAndre Jordan leads the league in rebounds (13.4) and has reached double figures in boards in an NBA-high 36 straight contests. He also leads the league in field-goal percentage at 72.1%, which is the NBA's highest mark since Wilt Chamberlain's 72.7% in 1972-73. Jordan is second in the league in blocks per game (2.4). J.J. Redick set a club-record for threes in a month (53) in December, and he has 23 this month. He'll go against a below-average perimeter defensive club in Brooklyn. The Clips are allowing just 98.9 ppg and are scoring 106.6 ppg at home. The Nets have averaged only 92.0 ppg in their last 10 games and they have lost nine of the last 10 on the road vs. Los Angeles. Blake Griffin is averaging 26.2 ppg on 56.2% shooting over his last six tilts.
Record: 254-192-9 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +162.98%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Los Angeles (28-14) hasn't played outside the Pacific Time Zone since Dec. 23. It is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after receiving two rest days. Brooklyn (18-24) played Wednesday night, and it won 103-100 at Sacramento. But in doing so it nearly blew a 23-point lead. The Nets have played the second-easiest schedule in the NBA. They have lost eight of 10 and will be without Deron Williams (ribs), their third-leading scorer and assists leader, for the eighth straight game. Brooklyn has managed just 90.2 ppg in dropping five of its last six on the second of back-to-backs. DeAndre Jordan leads the league in rebounds (13.4) and has reached double figures in boards in an NBA-high 36 straight contests. He also leads the league in field-goal percentage at 72.1%, which is the NBA's highest mark since Wilt Chamberlain's 72.7% in 1972-73. Jordan is second in the league in blocks per game (2.4). J.J. Redick set a club-record for threes in a month (53) in December, and he has 23 this month. He'll go against a below-average perimeter defensive club in Brooklyn. The Clips are allowing just 98.9 ppg and are scoring 106.6 ppg at home. The Nets have averaged only 92.0 ppg in their last 10 games and they have lost nine of the last 10 on the road vs. Los Angeles. Blake Griffin is averaging 26.2 ppg on 56.2% shooting over his last six tilts.
Record: 254-192-9 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +162.98%
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
NCAAB: Wednesday's 9 p.m. ET play
Play: Washington State +22 -110
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Utah lost its last game by 18, was outrebounded 40-19 (17-4 on the offensive glass) and was outscored 18-3 in second-chance points. The Cougars (9-8) have split the last six meetings and have already equaled their Pac-12 win total from last season. Josh Hawkinson should get his numbers in this one. He's averaging 15.4 ppg and a Pac-12-best 11 rebounds. DaVonte Lacy averages a team-high 17.4 ppg and he scored 22 the last time out vs. Utah. The Utes are below average from the line (67.6%). Washington State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning percentages above .600.
Record: 253-192-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +156.00%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Utah lost its last game by 18, was outrebounded 40-19 (17-4 on the offensive glass) and was outscored 18-3 in second-chance points. The Cougars (9-8) have split the last six meetings and have already equaled their Pac-12 win total from last season. Josh Hawkinson should get his numbers in this one. He's averaging 15.4 ppg and a Pac-12-best 11 rebounds. DaVonte Lacy averages a team-high 17.4 ppg and he scored 22 the last time out vs. Utah. The Utes are below average from the line (67.6%). Washington State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning percentages above .600.
Record: 253-192-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +156.00%
NCAAB: Wednesday's 7 p.m. ET play
Play: North Carolina -7.5 -110
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power ratings say the Tar Heels should be favored by 11. In its last game North Carolina beat Virginia Tech by 15 points, but it would have been by a larger margin if the Tar Heels hadn't committed 17 turnovers. They outrebounded the Hokies 49-22 (16-4 on the offensive glass) and held VA Tech to 35.8% shooting. North Carolina is second in the nation in rebounding and is holding teams to 36.6% shooting. It is shooting 48.3% away from home. Wake Forest is last in the ACC in scoring defense (69.1 ppg) and defensive field-goal percentage (43.7%). Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre was 0-for-7 from the field and went scoreless in the last meeting with the Tar Heels. North Carolina (14-4) has played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country. The Demon Deacons (9-9) have played a schedule that ranks 71st. And they are 0-6 vs. Top 50 teams.
Record: 253-192-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +156.00%
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power ratings say the Tar Heels should be favored by 11. In its last game North Carolina beat Virginia Tech by 15 points, but it would have been by a larger margin if the Tar Heels hadn't committed 17 turnovers. They outrebounded the Hokies 49-22 (16-4 on the offensive glass) and held VA Tech to 35.8% shooting. North Carolina is second in the nation in rebounding and is holding teams to 36.6% shooting. It is shooting 48.3% away from home. Wake Forest is last in the ACC in scoring defense (69.1 ppg) and defensive field-goal percentage (43.7%). Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre was 0-for-7 from the field and went scoreless in the last meeting with the Tar Heels. North Carolina (14-4) has played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country. The Demon Deacons (9-9) have played a schedule that ranks 71st. And they are 0-6 vs. Top 50 teams.
Record: 253-192-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +156.00%
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
NBA: Tuesday's play
Play: Oklahoma City/Miami over 199 -105
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Thunder have scored 127 points in each of their last two games while shooting 55%. On Friday they put up 69 first-half points against Golden State. On Sunday they scored 79 first-half points against Orlando and were able to rest Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for the final 15 minutes. OKC has shot 50% or better in five of its last 11 games and has averaged 106.6 points over its last 25. Durant has averaged 28.6 points over his last eight games since coming back from his most recent injury. He has averaged 33.5 points and has shot 50% against Miami over the past two seasons. The Heat could have leading scorer Dwyane Wade (hamstring) back for this one. Even if Miami doesn't get Wade back, it is getting offensive numbers from Chris Bosh (21.6 ppg) and Luol Deng (14.2 ppg). The Heat have a plus-4.8 rebounding margin over their last six and the Thunder average 12.2 offensive rebounds per contest.
Record: 253-191-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +163.92%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Thunder have scored 127 points in each of their last two games while shooting 55%. On Friday they put up 69 first-half points against Golden State. On Sunday they scored 79 first-half points against Orlando and were able to rest Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for the final 15 minutes. OKC has shot 50% or better in five of its last 11 games and has averaged 106.6 points over its last 25. Durant has averaged 28.6 points over his last eight games since coming back from his most recent injury. He has averaged 33.5 points and has shot 50% against Miami over the past two seasons. The Heat could have leading scorer Dwyane Wade (hamstring) back for this one. Even if Miami doesn't get Wade back, it is getting offensive numbers from Chris Bosh (21.6 ppg) and Luol Deng (14.2 ppg). The Heat have a plus-4.8 rebounding margin over their last six and the Thunder average 12.2 offensive rebounds per contest.
Bankroll: +163.92%
Monday, January 19, 2015
NBA: Monday's 8 p.m. ET play
Play: Toronto +1 -106
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Raptors have taken the last five meetings by an average of 17 points. They won by 42 in the last tilt against Milwaukee, by a score of 124-82, and the Bucks had Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders in the lineup for that one. They won't have either guy tonight as Parker has been lost for the season with a torn ACL and Sanders is suspended for at last 10 games because of drug use. The Bucks also will be without backup point guard Kendall Marshall, who tore his ACL in the last game. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 22.3 points in three games since returning from a torn abductor. Kyle Lowry is averaging 22.3 points on 52.4% shooting in his last three games against Milwaukee. Toronto also boasts a rebounding advantage here, and the Bucks are just 8-8 at home this season.
Record: 251-191-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +149.72%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Raptors have taken the last five meetings by an average of 17 points. They won by 42 in the last tilt against Milwaukee, by a score of 124-82, and the Bucks had Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders in the lineup for that one. They won't have either guy tonight as Parker has been lost for the season with a torn ACL and Sanders is suspended for at last 10 games because of drug use. The Bucks also will be without backup point guard Kendall Marshall, who tore his ACL in the last game. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 22.3 points in three games since returning from a torn abductor. Kyle Lowry is averaging 22.3 points on 52.4% shooting in his last three games against Milwaukee. Toronto also boasts a rebounding advantage here, and the Bucks are just 8-8 at home this season.
Record: 251-191-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +149.72%
NBA: Monday's 2:30 p.m. ET play
Play: Atlanta -7.5 -105
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Detroit is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven tilts, but I expect it will get a dose of reality at Philips Arena. The Hawks are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS at home this season. They are 2-0 SU and ATS against the Pistons this season, and my power ratings say Atlanta should be favored by 10.5 points in this one. The Hawks have won 12 straight and are 26-2 in their last 28. The Hawks are shooting 47.1% overall and 38.3% on threes (46.9% over the last 10 contests). Kyle Korver's 52.7% mark from behind the arc leads the NBA. Korver has canned an astonishing 59.1% of his threes over the last 10 games. Al Horford is averaging 21.7 points and is shooting 84.4% over his last three games. Detroit has lost 11 of its last 12 at Atlanta and the Pistons are below average defensively. They also are a horrific 69.9% from the line. The Hawks also have advantages in the steals and blocked shots categories. Atlanta is allowing just 95.0 ppg at home in 2014-15.
Record: 251-191-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +149.72%
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Detroit is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven tilts, but I expect it will get a dose of reality at Philips Arena. The Hawks are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS at home this season. They are 2-0 SU and ATS against the Pistons this season, and my power ratings say Atlanta should be favored by 10.5 points in this one. The Hawks have won 12 straight and are 26-2 in their last 28. The Hawks are shooting 47.1% overall and 38.3% on threes (46.9% over the last 10 contests). Kyle Korver's 52.7% mark from behind the arc leads the NBA. Korver has canned an astonishing 59.1% of his threes over the last 10 games. Al Horford is averaging 21.7 points and is shooting 84.4% over his last three games. Detroit has lost 11 of its last 12 at Atlanta and the Pistons are below average defensively. They also are a horrific 69.9% from the line. The Hawks also have advantages in the steals and blocked shots categories. Atlanta is allowing just 95.0 ppg at home in 2014-15.
Record: 251-191-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +149.72%
Sunday, January 18, 2015
NFL: Sunday's 6:40 p.m. ET play
Play: New England -6.5 -110
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Andrew Luck hasn't had much luck against the Patriots. He is 0-3 against them and Indianapolis has been outscored 144-66 in those games. Luck has completed just 53.8% of his throws, has only a 67.7 passer rating and has tossed eight INTs vs. six TDs in those three tilts. New England, which is 16-4 at home in the postseason, beat the Colts 42-20 at Indy on Nov. 16. Last week against Baltimore the Pats made NFL postseason history by erasing two 14-point deficits. New England has played the fifth-toughest schedule this season. The Colts have played the 23rd-toughest schedule and they are 2-4 vs. Top 10 teams and 4-5 vs. Top 16 teams. They were blown out 42-7 against Dallas on Dec. 21. Indy's secondary is banged up with its two best cornerbacks, Vontae Davis (knee) and Greg Toler (groin), missing practice leading up to this meeting.
Record: 249-191-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +136.82%
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Andrew Luck hasn't had much luck against the Patriots. He is 0-3 against them and Indianapolis has been outscored 144-66 in those games. Luck has completed just 53.8% of his throws, has only a 67.7 passer rating and has tossed eight INTs vs. six TDs in those three tilts. New England, which is 16-4 at home in the postseason, beat the Colts 42-20 at Indy on Nov. 16. Last week against Baltimore the Pats made NFL postseason history by erasing two 14-point deficits. New England has played the fifth-toughest schedule this season. The Colts have played the 23rd-toughest schedule and they are 2-4 vs. Top 10 teams and 4-5 vs. Top 16 teams. They were blown out 42-7 against Dallas on Dec. 21. Indy's secondary is banged up with its two best cornerbacks, Vontae Davis (knee) and Greg Toler (groin), missing practice leading up to this meeting.
Record: 249-191-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +136.82%
NFL: Sunday's 3:05 p.m. ET play
Play: Green Bay +8 -110
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I'll take the irresistible force in this one. My power ratings say that Seattle should be favored by no more than five points, and this is the most points spotted to an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team in 114 starts by the quarterback. Despite playing with a torn calf, Rodgers threw for 316 yards and three TDs while completing each of his final 10 passes in the comeback vs. Dallas last week. Rodgers has a 105.3 passer rating in the postseason (108.2 on the road). If any team is going to score against the great Seattle defense it will be Green Bay, which has won 12 of its last 14 games. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combined for 189 catches, 2,806 yards and 25 TDs this season. Rookie Davante Adams had seven catches for 117 yards and a score against Dallas. And Eddie Lacy, who ran for 101 yards on 19 carries against the Cowboys, has rushed for at least 97 yards in six of his last seven contests. Carolina was able to move the ball effectively against the Seahawks last week, totaling 362 yards. The Panthers also held Marshawn Lynch to 59 rushing yards. Defensively the Packers have held eight of their last nine opponents to 21 or fewer points. They also allowed just 86.4 rushing yards per game (3.6 yards per carry) over the final eight regular-season tilts.
Record: 249-191-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +136.82%
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Reasoning: I'll take the irresistible force in this one. My power ratings say that Seattle should be favored by no more than five points, and this is the most points spotted to an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team in 114 starts by the quarterback. Despite playing with a torn calf, Rodgers threw for 316 yards and three TDs while completing each of his final 10 passes in the comeback vs. Dallas last week. Rodgers has a 105.3 passer rating in the postseason (108.2 on the road). If any team is going to score against the great Seattle defense it will be Green Bay, which has won 12 of its last 14 games. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combined for 189 catches, 2,806 yards and 25 TDs this season. Rookie Davante Adams had seven catches for 117 yards and a score against Dallas. And Eddie Lacy, who ran for 101 yards on 19 carries against the Cowboys, has rushed for at least 97 yards in six of his last seven contests. Carolina was able to move the ball effectively against the Seahawks last week, totaling 362 yards. The Panthers also held Marshawn Lynch to 59 rushing yards. Defensively the Packers have held eight of their last nine opponents to 21 or fewer points. They also allowed just 86.4 rushing yards per game (3.6 yards per carry) over the final eight regular-season tilts.
Record: 249-191-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +136.82%
Saturday, January 17, 2015
NCAAB: Saturday's 4 p.m. ET play
Play: Kentucky -9 -110
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Wildcats flexed their muscles in their last contest, annihilating Missouri 86-37 (not a misprint). Their leading scorer, Aaron Harrison, averages just 11.8 ppg, but they have seven players capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night. They've played the 35th-toughest schedule. Alabama has played the 99th-best schedule, is 0-4 against Top 50 teams and my power rankings say this line should be 15 points. The Crimson Tide will have to settle for two-pointers, because despite taking 40.2% of their shots from behind the arc, they are shooting just 31.0% from there. Kentucky plays excellent perimeter defense, allowing opponents just 26.2% shooting on threes (17.2% on the road). Wildcats guard Devin Booker has canned 17 of his last 22 three-point attempts. Kentucky should dominate the glass (13.2 offensive rebounds per game) and it averages 8.2 blocks per contest.
Record: 247-191-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +124.56%
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Wildcats flexed their muscles in their last contest, annihilating Missouri 86-37 (not a misprint). Their leading scorer, Aaron Harrison, averages just 11.8 ppg, but they have seven players capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night. They've played the 35th-toughest schedule. Alabama has played the 99th-best schedule, is 0-4 against Top 50 teams and my power rankings say this line should be 15 points. The Crimson Tide will have to settle for two-pointers, because despite taking 40.2% of their shots from behind the arc, they are shooting just 31.0% from there. Kentucky plays excellent perimeter defense, allowing opponents just 26.2% shooting on threes (17.2% on the road). Wildcats guard Devin Booker has canned 17 of his last 22 three-point attempts. Kentucky should dominate the glass (13.2 offensive rebounds per game) and it averages 8.2 blocks per contest.
Record: 247-191-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +124.56%
NCAAB: Saturday's 2 p.m. ET play
Play: Wichita State -5.5 -110
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Shockers won all three meetings last year by an average of 17.3 points. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.4 ppg and they are an astonishing 42-19 ATS (68.9%) in their last 62 road games. They have four players who score in double figures and have a big rebounding advantage here. Evansville is 13-4, but it's played the 253rd-best schedule.
Record: 247-191-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +124.56%
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Shockers won all three meetings last year by an average of 17.3 points. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.4 ppg and they are an astonishing 42-19 ATS (68.9%) in their last 62 road games. They have four players who score in double figures and have a big rebounding advantage here. Evansville is 13-4, but it's played the 253rd-best schedule.
Record: 247-191-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +124.56%
Friday, January 16, 2015
NBA: Friday's play
Play: Toronto -1 -110
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Atlanta is hot but I think it is running into a buzzsaw here. The Raptors got second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan back on Wednesday after he missed 21 games with a groin injury. Toronto is 14-3 with him in the lineup. DeRozan scored 27 in the 126-115 road victory at Atlanta on Nov. 26. He has averaged 24.2 points on 50.0% shooting (51.9% on threes) in the last 11 meetings. The Raptors have won four of the last five meetings, all in convincing fashion, and took the Hawks to overtime in the only loss (at Atlanta). Toronto has held its last four opponents to 27.0% shooting from behind the arc. The Raptors are monsters on the offensive glass and they get to the free-throw line. At home they are outscoring opponents by 9.1 ppg. They have the deeper bench, personified by Lou Williams, who has scored at least 15 points in all six contests this month.
Record: 247-190-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +131.51%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Atlanta is hot but I think it is running into a buzzsaw here. The Raptors got second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan back on Wednesday after he missed 21 games with a groin injury. Toronto is 14-3 with him in the lineup. DeRozan scored 27 in the 126-115 road victory at Atlanta on Nov. 26. He has averaged 24.2 points on 50.0% shooting (51.9% on threes) in the last 11 meetings. The Raptors have won four of the last five meetings, all in convincing fashion, and took the Hawks to overtime in the only loss (at Atlanta). Toronto has held its last four opponents to 27.0% shooting from behind the arc. The Raptors are monsters on the offensive glass and they get to the free-throw line. At home they are outscoring opponents by 9.1 ppg. They have the deeper bench, personified by Lou Williams, who has scored at least 15 points in all six contests this month.
Record: 247-190-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +131.51%
Thursday, January 15, 2015
NBA: Thursday's 10:30 p.m. ET play
Play: Cleveland -5.5 -105 and Cleveland/L.A. Lakers over 206.5 -102
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cavaliers have LeBron James back after an eight-game absence, and he looked fine on Tuesday against Phoenix when he poured in 33 points. Los Angeles should have Kobe Bryant in the lineup and I expect him to step up offensively in a big game after getting a lot of rest recently (he's played in just two of the Lakers' last five games). Cleveland recently added J.R. Smith and he put up 29 points against the Suns in his last contest. Both teams are below average defensively, are above average on the offensive glass and both get to the free-throw line. With James back for the last tilt, the Cavs finally scored 100 points. But defensively they've given up 105.2 ppg over their last six. Lakers games average 207.5 points.
Record: 244-189-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +119.12%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Cavaliers have LeBron James back after an eight-game absence, and he looked fine on Tuesday against Phoenix when he poured in 33 points. Los Angeles should have Kobe Bryant in the lineup and I expect him to step up offensively in a big game after getting a lot of rest recently (he's played in just two of the Lakers' last five games). Cleveland recently added J.R. Smith and he put up 29 points against the Suns in his last contest. Both teams are below average defensively, are above average on the offensive glass and both get to the free-throw line. With James back for the last tilt, the Cavs finally scored 100 points. But defensively they've given up 105.2 ppg over their last six. Lakers games average 207.5 points.
Record: 244-189-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +119.12%
NBA: Thursday's 8 p.m. ET plays
Plays: Oklahoma City -2.5 -105 and OKC/Houston over 209 -105
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Thunder are coming off of a six-day layoff. The Rockets allowed 120 points to Orlando last night. Everyone who matters will suit up for OKC tonight unlike its last meeting with Houston when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were out with injuries. The Rockets will do their part points-wise because they shoot the lights out from beyond the arc. the Thunder have allowed opponents 48.3% shooting from behind the arc in their last five games. The last five OKC contests have averaged 214.0 points. Houston committed 21 turnovers against the Magic last night, and I think the Thunder will get easy buckets as a result of the Rockets' sloppy play.
Record: 244-189-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +119.12%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Thunder are coming off of a six-day layoff. The Rockets allowed 120 points to Orlando last night. Everyone who matters will suit up for OKC tonight unlike its last meeting with Houston when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were out with injuries. The Rockets will do their part points-wise because they shoot the lights out from beyond the arc. the Thunder have allowed opponents 48.3% shooting from behind the arc in their last five games. The last five OKC contests have averaged 214.0 points. Houston committed 21 turnovers against the Magic last night, and I think the Thunder will get easy buckets as a result of the Rockets' sloppy play.
Record: 244-189-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +119.12%
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
NBA: Wednesday's play
Play: Chicago -5.5 -110
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Bulls are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Beyond their top three scorers (Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose), they have six more players averaging between 7.7 and 11.1 ppg. In this one Chicago has a huge rebounding edge and it averages 12.2 offensive boards per contest. The Bulls also get to the free-throw line much more frequently than Washington and the Bulls are much better at shooting the ball from there as well. The Wizards are 0-4 in their last four when playing on zero-days rest. In two of those tilts they lost by 26 and 27 points.
Record: 244-188-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +125.90%
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Bulls are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Beyond their top three scorers (Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose), they have six more players averaging between 7.7 and 11.1 ppg. In this one Chicago has a huge rebounding edge and it averages 12.2 offensive boards per contest. The Bulls also get to the free-throw line much more frequently than Washington and the Bulls are much better at shooting the ball from there as well. The Wizards are 0-4 in their last four when playing on zero-days rest. In two of those tilts they lost by 26 and 27 points.
Record: 244-188-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +125.90%
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
NBA: Tuesday's play
Play: Golden State/Utah over 202 -105
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jazz games have gone under in 10 of the last 11, but none of those contests were against the Warriors. Golden State has averaged nearly 120 ppg over its last five. Think about that. Assuming the Warriors keep up that pace, Utah would need only 83 points for the over to hit. The Jazz average 97.2 ppg at home and only five of Golden State's 34 games have featured a total lower than this. Overall Warriors games average 207.4 ppg. On Tuesday Golden State will have Andrew Bogut on the floor in his third game back from a knee injury. Bogut leads the team in rebounding. I expect a lot of those boards to come on offense, which should lead to easier buckets. Utah is well above average in offensive rebounding, it shoots well and it's below average in defensive field-goal percentage. The Jazz also are below average in perimeter defense, and in the last five games Golden State has averaged 12.2 made three-pointers per. This season Utah games has gone over in six of 13 tilts with totals of 200-plus.
Record: 243-188-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +119.90%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Jazz games have gone under in 10 of the last 11, but none of those contests were against the Warriors. Golden State has averaged nearly 120 ppg over its last five. Think about that. Assuming the Warriors keep up that pace, Utah would need only 83 points for the over to hit. The Jazz average 97.2 ppg at home and only five of Golden State's 34 games have featured a total lower than this. Overall Warriors games average 207.4 ppg. On Tuesday Golden State will have Andrew Bogut on the floor in his third game back from a knee injury. Bogut leads the team in rebounding. I expect a lot of those boards to come on offense, which should lead to easier buckets. Utah is well above average in offensive rebounding, it shoots well and it's below average in defensive field-goal percentage. The Jazz also are below average in perimeter defense, and in the last five games Golden State has averaged 12.2 made three-pointers per. This season Utah games has gone over in six of 13 tilts with totals of 200-plus.
Record: 243-188-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +119.90%
Monday, January 12, 2015
NCAAF: Monday's plays
Plays: Ohio State +6.5 -110 and Ohio State/Oregon under 74.5 -110
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Ducks will be without three of their top five receivers. They just found out that Darren Carrington won't play because of a reported failed drug test, and they lost Devon Allen (knee) in the Rose Bowl. They already were without TE Pharoah Brown (leg). Carrington had 291 yards and three TDs in his last two games. The Buckeyes have won 12 straight, and though they are onto their third quarterback (Cardale Jones), he led them to a 59-0 victory vs. Wisconsin and a 42-35 win over Alabama in the last two games. OSU boasts RB Exekiel Elliott, whose 1,632 rushing yards this season puts him in the company of Eddie George, Keith Byers and Archie Griffin. The Buckeyes also have a monster in Devin Smith, who has 12 TDs and who is averaging 27.7 yards per reception. Ohio State's defense is allowing just 333.4 ypg and 22.1 ppg. Oregon's defense is surrendering just 22.3 ppg.
Record: 241-188-8 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +108.52%
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Ducks will be without three of their top five receivers. They just found out that Darren Carrington won't play because of a reported failed drug test, and they lost Devon Allen (knee) in the Rose Bowl. They already were without TE Pharoah Brown (leg). Carrington had 291 yards and three TDs in his last two games. The Buckeyes have won 12 straight, and though they are onto their third quarterback (Cardale Jones), he led them to a 59-0 victory vs. Wisconsin and a 42-35 win over Alabama in the last two games. OSU boasts RB Exekiel Elliott, whose 1,632 rushing yards this season puts him in the company of Eddie George, Keith Byers and Archie Griffin. The Buckeyes also have a monster in Devin Smith, who has 12 TDs and who is averaging 27.7 yards per reception. Ohio State's defense is allowing just 333.4 ypg and 22.1 ppg. Oregon's defense is surrendering just 22.3 ppg.
Record: 241-188-8 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +108.52%
Sunday, January 11, 2015
NFL: Sunday's play
Play: Denver -7 -110
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Broncos are 8-0 this season at Mile High and they are outscoring opponents by 14.6 ppg. They are 22-2 in Denver over the last three years under Peyton Manning, who has a 117.5 QB rating at home this season. The Colts allowed 31 or more points in four road games this season. In Week 1 the Broncos led Indianapolis by as much as 24 points before the Colts mounted a comeback and covered the eight-point spread but lost straight up 31-24. Indianapolis played the NFL's seventh-easiest schedule. The Colts went 1-4 vs. Top 10 teams and 3-5 vs. Top 16 teams. Denver played the fourth-toughest schedule and was 4-2 vs. Top 10 teams and 8-2 vs. Top 16 teams. The Broncos have won five of their last six, with the only loss being a 37-28 defeat at Cincinnati on Dec. 22. During those six games Denver totaled 13 takeaways. The Broncos are second in the league in rush defense (79.8 rpg) and Indianapolis has allowed 126.2 ypg rushing over the last five games.
Record: 241-187-8 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +114.97%
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Broncos are 8-0 this season at Mile High and they are outscoring opponents by 14.6 ppg. They are 22-2 in Denver over the last three years under Peyton Manning, who has a 117.5 QB rating at home this season. The Colts allowed 31 or more points in four road games this season. In Week 1 the Broncos led Indianapolis by as much as 24 points before the Colts mounted a comeback and covered the eight-point spread but lost straight up 31-24. Indianapolis played the NFL's seventh-easiest schedule. The Colts went 1-4 vs. Top 10 teams and 3-5 vs. Top 16 teams. Denver played the fourth-toughest schedule and was 4-2 vs. Top 10 teams and 8-2 vs. Top 16 teams. The Broncos have won five of their last six, with the only loss being a 37-28 defeat at Cincinnati on Dec. 22. During those six games Denver totaled 13 takeaways. The Broncos are second in the league in rush defense (79.8 rpg) and Indianapolis has allowed 126.2 ypg rushing over the last five games.
Record: 241-187-8 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +114.97%
Saturday, January 10, 2015
NFL: Saturday's play
Play: New England -7 +105
Time: 4:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Patriots are looking to advance to their fourth straight AFC championship game. New England has been the most dominant home team over the past 15 years. Its 109 home wins is 14 more than the second-most successful team. The Patriots are 12-3 at home in the playoffs over that period of time. They went 7-1 at Gillette Stadium this season, with the only loss coming two weeks ago in a meaningless contest against Buffalo. Tom Brady, who has an NFL-record 18 playoff victories, threw for 4,000 yards for the fourth straight year and finished with 33 TDs against nine INTs. New England was fourth in the league in scoring (29.3 ppg). At home the Pats outscored opponents by 16.2 ppg. Baltimore was 4-4 on the road this season before upsetting Pittsburgh (which didn't have Le'Veon Bell) last week. The last time these squads faced off (in Baltimore on 12/22/13), New England won 41-7. The Ravens played the third-easiest schedule this season and faced just one Top 10 team (and lost 20-13 to Indianapolis). The Patriots played the sixth-toughest schedule. After Baltimore's win last week, John Harbaugh proclaimed that Joe Flacco is the best QB in the NFL. But Flacco ranked 16th this season in passer rating.
Record: 241-186-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +121.62%
Time: 4:35 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Patriots are looking to advance to their fourth straight AFC championship game. New England has been the most dominant home team over the past 15 years. Its 109 home wins is 14 more than the second-most successful team. The Patriots are 12-3 at home in the playoffs over that period of time. They went 7-1 at Gillette Stadium this season, with the only loss coming two weeks ago in a meaningless contest against Buffalo. Tom Brady, who has an NFL-record 18 playoff victories, threw for 4,000 yards for the fourth straight year and finished with 33 TDs against nine INTs. New England was fourth in the league in scoring (29.3 ppg). At home the Pats outscored opponents by 16.2 ppg. Baltimore was 4-4 on the road this season before upsetting Pittsburgh (which didn't have Le'Veon Bell) last week. The last time these squads faced off (in Baltimore on 12/22/13), New England won 41-7. The Ravens played the third-easiest schedule this season and faced just one Top 10 team (and lost 20-13 to Indianapolis). The Patriots played the sixth-toughest schedule. After Baltimore's win last week, John Harbaugh proclaimed that Joe Flacco is the best QB in the NFL. But Flacco ranked 16th this season in passer rating.
Record: 241-186-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +121.62%
Thursday, January 8, 2015
No plays for Friday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 241-186-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +121.62%
Record: 241-186-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +121.62%
NCAAB: Thursday's play
Play: Arizona -5.5 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oregon is 10-1 at home, but its schedule ranks 252nd out of 351 teams. In three of the Ducks' last four games they needed overtime to dispatch UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara and Delaware State (a 23.5-point underdog) played them even in the second half before losing by 13. Oregon is 1-2 ATS as an underdog. The No. 6 Wildcats are outscoring opponents by 16.6 ppg. They are shooting 50.1% from the field and are allowing just 59.5 ppg. Arizona's Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Johnson are NBA prospects and they have combined for 25.8 ppg and 13.3 rpg. Oregon shoots and hits a lot of three-pointers, but Wildcats opponents have connected on just 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc (27.5% in the last five contests). And Arizona has the advantage in rebounds and steals.
Record: 240-186-8 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +115.74%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Oregon is 10-1 at home, but its schedule ranks 252nd out of 351 teams. In three of the Ducks' last four games they needed overtime to dispatch UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara and Delaware State (a 23.5-point underdog) played them even in the second half before losing by 13. Oregon is 1-2 ATS as an underdog. The No. 6 Wildcats are outscoring opponents by 16.6 ppg. They are shooting 50.1% from the field and are allowing just 59.5 ppg. Arizona's Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Johnson are NBA prospects and they have combined for 25.8 ppg and 13.3 rpg. Oregon shoots and hits a lot of three-pointers, but Wildcats opponents have connected on just 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc (27.5% in the last five contests). And Arizona has the advantage in rebounds and steals.
Record: 240-186-8 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +115.74%
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
No plays for Wednesday
Subscribers have been credited a day.
Record: 240-186-8 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +115.74%
Record: 240-186-8 (56.3%)
Bankroll: +115.74%
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
NCAAB: Tuesday's play
Play: Ohio State +2.5 -110
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Buckeyes have won seven of the last eight meetings and have covered in six of those games. They more than doubled the 7.5.-point spread vs. Illinois their last time out after switching to a man-to-man defense for the first time this season. Ohio State will face a Minnesota team that lost by 12 in its last contest when catching four points at Maryland. The Buckeyes have a terrific backcourt in freshman D'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott and they have shot better than 50 percent in 10 of 15 tilts. They are shooting 52.4% overall and 40.7% from behind the arc and they are outscoring opponents by 23.9 ppg. The Golden Gophers don't shoot as well, are below average in perimeter defense, are atrocious at the line (64.9%) and they get outrebounded and turn the ball over. Ohio State outrebounds opponents by five per game and it averages 9.3 steals.
Record: 239-186-8 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +110.01%
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Buckeyes have won seven of the last eight meetings and have covered in six of those games. They more than doubled the 7.5.-point spread vs. Illinois their last time out after switching to a man-to-man defense for the first time this season. Ohio State will face a Minnesota team that lost by 12 in its last contest when catching four points at Maryland. The Buckeyes have a terrific backcourt in freshman D'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott and they have shot better than 50 percent in 10 of 15 tilts. They are shooting 52.4% overall and 40.7% from behind the arc and they are outscoring opponents by 23.9 ppg. The Golden Gophers don't shoot as well, are below average in perimeter defense, are atrocious at the line (64.9%) and they get outrebounded and turn the ball over. Ohio State outrebounds opponents by five per game and it averages 9.3 steals.
Record: 239-186-8 (56.2%)
Bankroll: +110.01%
Monday, January 5, 2015
NBA: Monday's plays
Play: L.A. Clippers -5 -105
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Los Angeles endured a brutal stretch of games in December, but the Clippers are finally rested and will be playing only their second game of the new year. Add to that the fact that their starters barely broke a sweat in Saturday's 127-91 throttling of Philadelphia. Chris Paul played the most of any starters against the 76ers, a game in which L.A.'s bench outscored Philadelphia 57-16. Paul, who is third in the NBA in steals (2.03 per game), nearly recorded a triple-double in 30 minutes against the Sixers. DeAndre Jordan, who will play in his league-high 275th straight contest on Monday, leads the NBA in rebounding (13.6 per game). He has scored 19 or more in his last six tilts and he grabbed 22 boards in his last meeting with Atlanta. The Hawks won the last matchup on Dec. 23, but they needed 12 three-pointers to do it. And I don't see them making that many against the Clippers again. At home L.A. allows opponents just 32.7% shooting from behind the arc. A big part of Atlanta's game is points off of turnovers, and the Clippers are fourth in the league in fewest giveaways (just 11.9 per game). L.A. has allowed opponents just 92.4 ppg over their last five. The Hawks have played the NBA's third-easiest schedule, and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Play: Oklahoma City +3.5 -110 and Oklahoma City/Golden State under 218 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Warriors won the last meeting 114-109, but Kevin Durant was able to play only 19 minutes of that one before going down with an ankle injury. Still, Durant was able to pour in an NBA-record 30 points during those 19 minutes. In the other game against Golden State this season Durant had a career-high 54 points, but the Thunder lost that one in part because they didn't have Russell Westbrook in the lineup. OKC has played a much tougher schedule than the Warriors and the Thunder should have a big rebounding advantage. Especially since Andrew Bogut (knee) is out and Festus Ezili (ankle) is listed as questionable. I don't think the teams will combine to get anywhere near this total since they both play great perimeter defense (31.8% and 32.3% shooting, respectively). Games for both teams don't average anywhere near 218 points overall or in the home/away splits. And Thunder games average below 200 points overall and on the road.
Record: 238-184-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +117.11%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Los Angeles endured a brutal stretch of games in December, but the Clippers are finally rested and will be playing only their second game of the new year. Add to that the fact that their starters barely broke a sweat in Saturday's 127-91 throttling of Philadelphia. Chris Paul played the most of any starters against the 76ers, a game in which L.A.'s bench outscored Philadelphia 57-16. Paul, who is third in the NBA in steals (2.03 per game), nearly recorded a triple-double in 30 minutes against the Sixers. DeAndre Jordan, who will play in his league-high 275th straight contest on Monday, leads the NBA in rebounding (13.6 per game). He has scored 19 or more in his last six tilts and he grabbed 22 boards in his last meeting with Atlanta. The Hawks won the last matchup on Dec. 23, but they needed 12 three-pointers to do it. And I don't see them making that many against the Clippers again. At home L.A. allows opponents just 32.7% shooting from behind the arc. A big part of Atlanta's game is points off of turnovers, and the Clippers are fourth in the league in fewest giveaways (just 11.9 per game). L.A. has allowed opponents just 92.4 ppg over their last five. The Hawks have played the NBA's third-easiest schedule, and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Play: Oklahoma City +3.5 -110 and Oklahoma City/Golden State under 218 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: The Warriors won the last meeting 114-109, but Kevin Durant was able to play only 19 minutes of that one before going down with an ankle injury. Still, Durant was able to pour in an NBA-record 30 points during those 19 minutes. In the other game against Golden State this season Durant had a career-high 54 points, but the Thunder lost that one in part because they didn't have Russell Westbrook in the lineup. OKC has played a much tougher schedule than the Warriors and the Thunder should have a big rebounding advantage. Especially since Andrew Bogut (knee) is out and Festus Ezili (ankle) is listed as questionable. I don't think the teams will combine to get anywhere near this total since they both play great perimeter defense (31.8% and 32.3% shooting, respectively). Games for both teams don't average anywhere near 218 points overall or in the home/away splits. And Thunder games average below 200 points overall and on the road.
Record: 238-184-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +117.11%
Sunday, January 4, 2015
NBA: Sunday's play
Play: Sacramento +4.5 -110
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power rankings say the Kings should be favored by 1. Detroit beat them on Dec. 13 in Sacramento, but the Kings were without DeMarcus Cousins because of viral meningitis. Also, Darren Collision and Rudy Gay combined to shoot just 7-of-32. That won't happen again. Sacramento has played the tougher schedule and has a better record overall and in the home/away splits. The Kings are above average shooting from the floor and on free throws (they score six more points than the league average from the line). The Pistons are well below average from the floor and the line (67.4% on free throws). They have a huge rebounding disadvantage as well, and they are 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season.
Record: 238-183-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +123.82%
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Reasoning: My power rankings say the Kings should be favored by 1. Detroit beat them on Dec. 13 in Sacramento, but the Kings were without DeMarcus Cousins because of viral meningitis. Also, Darren Collision and Rudy Gay combined to shoot just 7-of-32. That won't happen again. Sacramento has played the tougher schedule and has a better record overall and in the home/away splits. The Kings are above average shooting from the floor and on free throws (they score six more points than the league average from the line). The Pistons are well below average from the floor and the line (67.4% on free throws). They have a huge rebounding disadvantage as well, and they are 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season.
Record: 238-183-8 (56.5%)
Bankroll: +123.82%
Saturday, January 3, 2015
NFL: Saturday's play
Play: Baltimore +3 +105
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh will not be the same without Le'Veon Bell. The league's second-leading rusher (1,361 yards) will miss this one after he hyperextended his right knee last week. Overall Bell contributed 11 TDs and 2,215 scrimmage yards, nearly one third of his team's total. Instead the Steelers will try to get it done with Josh Harris, Dri Archer and Ben Tate. The Ravens, who have allowed just 15.7 ppg over their last three, will have Haloti Ngata back after a four-game suspension. Last week Baltimore held Cleveland to 259 yards and a 3-of-13 mark on third downs. Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs have combined for 29 sacks, the most by a tandem in the NFL. On offense the Ravens set team records in 2014 for scoring (409 points) and average yards (365). Joe Flacco (3,986 passing yards) and Justin Forsett (1,266 rushing yards) put up career numbers and the ageless Steve Smith recorded 1,065 receiving yards.
Record: 237-183-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +116.98%
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Pittsburgh will not be the same without Le'Veon Bell. The league's second-leading rusher (1,361 yards) will miss this one after he hyperextended his right knee last week. Overall Bell contributed 11 TDs and 2,215 scrimmage yards, nearly one third of his team's total. Instead the Steelers will try to get it done with Josh Harris, Dri Archer and Ben Tate. The Ravens, who have allowed just 15.7 ppg over their last three, will have Haloti Ngata back after a four-game suspension. Last week Baltimore held Cleveland to 259 yards and a 3-of-13 mark on third downs. Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs have combined for 29 sacks, the most by a tandem in the NFL. On offense the Ravens set team records in 2014 for scoring (409 points) and average yards (365). Joe Flacco (3,986 passing yards) and Justin Forsett (1,266 rushing yards) put up career numbers and the ageless Steve Smith recorded 1,065 receiving yards.
Record: 237-183-8 (56.4%)
Bankroll: +116.98%
Friday, January 2, 2015
NBA: Friday's play
Play: Toronto +6 -110
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Reasoning: This should be a heck of a matchup between the best teams in their respective conferences. Golden State has won 10 straight at home but I like that streak to come to a halt against a Raptors team that has won eight of its last 10. Toronto has the deeper bench and excels on the offensive glass. It should have an easier time inside against a Warriors club still missing Andrew Bogut (knee) and Festus Ezeli (ankle). Golden State has been outrebounded in five of its last six games. Toronto won the last meeting and it has only been spotted this many points in a game once this season. The Raptors played Portland into OT in their last contest and the Blazers have the NBA's second-best record. Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry has been on fire of late, averaging 28.5 points in his last four. He is 12-of-27 from behind the arc in his last five.
Record: 237-182-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +123.69%
Thursday, January 1, 2015
No plays for Thursday
Subscribers have been credited another day.
Record: 237-182-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +123.69%
Record: 237-182-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +123.69%
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