Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL: Sunday's 3:05 p.m. ET play

Play: Green Bay +8 -110

Time: 3:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I'll take the irresistible force in this one. My power ratings say that Seattle should be favored by no more than five points, and this is the most points spotted to an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team in 114 starts by the quarterback. Despite playing with a torn calf, Rodgers threw for 316 yards and three TDs while completing each of his final 10 passes in the comeback vs. Dallas last week. Rodgers has a 105.3 passer rating in the postseason (108.2 on the road). If any team is going to score against the great Seattle defense it will be Green Bay, which has won 12 of its last 14 games. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combined for 189 catches, 2,806 yards and 25 TDs this season. Rookie Davante Adams had seven catches for 117 yards and a score against Dallas. And Eddie Lacy, who ran for 101 yards on 19 carries against the Cowboys, has rushed for at least 97 yards in six of his last seven contests. Carolina was able to move the ball effectively against the Seahawks last week, totaling 362 yards. The Panthers also held Marshawn Lynch to 59 rushing yards. Defensively the Packers have held eight of their last nine opponents to 21 or fewer points. They also allowed just 86.4 rushing yards per game (3.6 yards per carry) over the final eight regular-season tilts.


Record: 249-191-8 (56.6%)
Bankroll: +136.82%

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