NFL: Sunday's play

Play: San Diego +6.5 +100

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Chargers have won two straight and Philip Rivers was firing on all cylinders last week (29-of-35 for 291 yards). Here he will face the NFL's 29th-ranked pass defense that gave up 420 yards last Monday night. I think his short passing and no-huddle attack will be effective in neutralizing Baltimore's great pass rush. The Ravens are 7-4 but they are just 3-4 against non-NFC South teams. Baltimore got 182 yards and two TDs from Justin Forsett in the last contest and its sixth in the league in rushing. But San Diego allowed its last two opponents an average of 89 rushing yards. The Chargers have benefited from the return of LBs Melvin Ingram, Jeremiah Attaochu and Manti Te'o from injuries. This is an early game for San Diego, but it's also a veteran team that defeated Buffalo in an early game in Week 3.

Record: 218-163-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +133.65%

No plays for Saturday

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Record: 218-163-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +133.65%

NCAAF: Friday's plays

Play: Stanford +6 -108

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Cardinal have won six straight in the series and have covered in five of them. They have frustrated UCLA's offense in those contests, allowing an average of 14.3 points per game. In last year's meeting, Stanford WR Devon Cajuste caught seven balls for 109 yards. Last week RB Remound Wright scored four TDs. The Cardinal is sixth in the country in total defense (289.7 ypg) and seventh in scoring defense (16.5 ppg) and the unit is led by ILB Blake Martinez (92 tackles, three INTs) and DE Henry Anderson (six sacks).



Play: Colorado State/Air Force under 60 -110

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Falcons are 5-0 at home and the Rams haven't won there since 2002. So I think Air Force could keep it relatively close. But I don't expect much out of Air Force's offense. Leading rusher Jacobi Owens is now out for the season (foot) and second-leading rusher (QB Kale Pearson) should be slowed by an unspecified injury. Colorado State's defense showcases LB Aaron Davis (104 tackles) and S Trent Matthews (3 INTs, 11 PBUs). These teams give up 24.2 and 23.1 points per game, respectively. On the road the Rams score far fewer points (29.6 ppg) than they do at home.




Play: Arizona State/Arizona over 62 -110

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Games for both teams average more points than this total in the home/away splits. The Sun Devils have scored 99 points in the last two meetings. ASU's Taylor Kelly threw for four TDs and D.J. Foster, the only active FBS running back with 900 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards this season, ran for three TDs last week. The Sun Devils also should have leading WR Jaelen Strong (71 receptions, 982 yards, nine TDs) back for this one after he missed last week's tilt with a concussion. Wildcats freshman RB Nick Wilson ran for 218 yards and three TDs last week. He went for three TDs in the previous game as well and has 1,085 rushing yards.



Record: 215-163-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +115.87% 

NFL: Thursday's 4:30 p.m. ET play

Play: Dallas -3 -115

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The last time Philadelphia played a good team (Green Bay) it allowed 53 points. The Eagles won their last game at Dallas (24-22) but the Cowboys didn't have Tony Romo (back surgery) on the field. Romo is flying high after tossing four TDs in Dallas' come-from-behind job on Sunday at New York. Romo also is 6-1 lifetime on Thanksgiving. Teammate DeMarco Murray has posted 10 consecutive 100-yard games. Philadelphia's Mark Sanchez has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games and the Eagles have turned the ball over an NFL-worst 27 times. The Cowboys also have forced turnovers in 10 of their last 11 contests.


Record: 215-161-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +129.65% 

NFL: Thursday's 12:30 p.m. ET game

Play: Chicago +7 -110

Time: 12:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Detroit won on Thanksgiving last season, but that was its first Turkey Day victory in 10 years. The Lions have lost two straight and didn't score a touchdown in either of those contests. The Bears have won two in a row and I like them to control the line of scrimmage against Detroit's offense. The Lions are still without their best lineman (RG Larry Warford, knee) and they might start two undrafted free agents at the tackle spots. Against New England LT Riley Reiff (knee) went down on the first play and he is questionable for this tilt. Therefore I expect Jared Allen and Willie Young to wreak some havoc. Detroit has trouble running the ball anyway, but Reggie Bush being questionable (knee and back) doesn't help. Ditto Calvin Johnson's poor reception percentage (43.2%) since returning from an ankle injury in Week 10. Johnson has now gone three straight without catching 50 percent or more of his targets. The Lions also needed three consecutive come-from-behind wins in October and November to get where they are. Chicago will be fine if it uses quick passes (its strength) in its offensive strategy. In its last game Detroit allowed 34 points and Matthew Stafford went 18-for-46 (39.1%) passing.

Record: 215-161-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +129.65% 

No plays for Wednesday

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Record: 215-161-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +129.65% 

NBA: Tuesday's play

Play: Sacramento/New Orleans under 204.5 -110

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Pelicans give up just 95.4 points per game at home. Neither squad puts up many three-pointers within its shot selection (Sacramento 18.8%, New Orleans 23.3%, league average (26.5%). And neither team gets much scoring from their bench (Kings 28.7 ppg, Pelicans 29.3 ppg, NBA average 32.6 ppg). Sacramento guard Ramon Sessions (knee) is questionable and starters DeMarcus Cousins (hip) and Rudy Gay (Achilles) should be limited. New Orleans guard Eric Gordon is sidelined indefinitely with a shoulder injury after recent tests revealed that he tore his labrum in the last contest. And C Omer Asik is questionable after he missed the last four games with a bothersome back.


Record: 214-161-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +123.55% 

No plays for Monday

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Record: 214-161-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +123.55% 

NFL: Sunday's play

Play: Cincinnati +2 -110

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Andy Dalton is 0-3 in his career against Houston, but he's going against a different Texans team than he faced in the last meeting (playoffs following the 2012 season). Last week at New Orleans, Dalton posted the highest passer rating of his career (143.9). He got an All-Pro performance from A.J. Green vs. the Saints (six catches, 127 yards and a score) and on Sunday he may have Giovani Bernard (hip) back on his side for the first time in four weeks. The Bengals haven't missed Bernard a ton because they have Jeremy Hill (389 yards in the last three weeks). Dalton completed 72.7% of his passes against New Orleans partly because his offensive line gave him protection. The line could be even better with Andre Smith's return, which is likely after he practiced this week. Houston can bring a pass rush, but Dalton ranks second in the NFL (after Peyton Manning) in shortest average time in the pocket. The Texans give up big plays. They have allowed 23 plays of 30 or more yards, worst in the league. Arian Foster (groin) is questionable and I doubt that Alfred Blue will match his 156 yards from his first-ever start last week. Ditto for Ryan Mallet, who won his first career start. Cincinnati held the Saints to 75 rushing yards.

Record: 213-161-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +117.61% 

NCAAF: Saturday's play

Play: Missouri +4 -101

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Tennessee will be without LB Alexander Johnson and DB Michael Williams as they are suspended amidst rape allegations. As a result freshman LB Jakob Johnson, who has yet to start a game, will be at middle linebacker calling out defensive plays. The Tigers have won nine straight road tilts, including last week at Texas A&M. In that 34-27 victory Missouri had WR Darius White back at full strength for the first time in nearly two months. Overall the Tigers have won four consecutive contests and they are 16th in the country in scoring defense (20.1 points per game). The Volunteers are 0-5 this season vs. Top 30 teams. They fell to Missouri two years ago at Neyland Stadium and the Tigers destroyed them 31-3 in last season's meeting.

Record: 212-161-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +111.33%

NBA: Friday's plays

Plays: New Orleans -2.5 -110 and New Orleans/Denver under 213.5 -110

Time: 9 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is the highest total the Pelicans have faced this season and it's the second-highest number the Nuggets have seen. Games for both teams average well below 213.5 both overall and in the home/away splits. New Orleans is an above-average shooting team and is above-average defensively and Denver is below average shooting and defending. Behind the arc, offensively and defensively, the Pelicans' advantage is even more pronounced. My power rankings say New Orleans should be favored by 5.5 points. It has the better record and has played a tougher schedule. The Nuggets are 0-4 against Top 10 teams and 1-5 against Top 16 squads. The Pelicans take care of the ball and have big advantages in the steals and blocked shots departments. New Orleans got 28 points and nine rebounds from standout power forward Anthony Davis in its last game and he has scored 20 or more points in seven straight and nine of his last 10 contests. And swingman Tyreke Evans is averaging 16.1 points and shooting 46.7 percent from 3-point range. The athletic Evans fared well against Denver last season, averaging 22 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field.

Record: 212-159-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +124.81%

NBA: Thursday's play

Play: L.A. Clippers -4 -105

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Dwayne Wade is doubtful (hamstring), Luol Deng is questionable (wrist) and Justin Hamilton (abdominal) and Josh McRoberts (foot) also are questionable for Miami, which isn't a deep team to begin with (26.6 bench points per game). Norris Cole has taken over for Wade, who has missed the last three games and who was limited at practice on Wednesday. Los Angeles played last night, but it should not be dealing with much fatigue because no one played more than 30 minutes in a 114-90 rout of the Magic. Against Orlando the Clippers were 12-of-21 on threes. They also got a big boost from their bench as Jamal Crawford, Jordan Farmar and Spencer Hawes combined for 45 points and went 7-of-9 from 3-point range. Crawford, who went 8-of-12 en route to a team-high 22 points, is 18-of-29 over the last two games. L.A. also has a big advantage in the blocked shots department.

Record: 211-159-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +118.56%

No plays for Wednesday

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Record: 211-159-8 (57.0%)
Bankroll: +118.56%

NCAAF: Tuesday's play

Play: Northern Illinois/Ohio over 47.5 -105

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is the second-lowest total the Bobcats have faced this season and it is by far the lowest total (by 9.5 points) the Huskies have gone against. Ohio home games are averaging 50.2 points and Northern Illinois games are averaging 57 points both overall and on the road. The Bobcats are allowing 273.5 yards per game passing and they will go against Drew Hare, who has 12 TDs against one INT and who completes 60.9% of his passes. Hare is a dual-threat (687 rushing yards, 5 TDs) and he has two good RBs in Cameron Stingily (706 yards, 5.1 ypc, 10 TDs) and Joel Bouagnon (441 yards, 5.3 ypc, 5 TDs). Ohio, which is coming off of a bye, scored 37 in its last game (vs. Buffalo). The Bobcats are balanced on offense, as evidenced by it boasting six players with rushing TDs, five with TD receptions and 10 who average 11.4 or more yards per reception. Ohio WR Chase Cochran is his team's leading receiver and he is averaging 22.2 ypr. Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 164.2 rushing yards and 235.8 passing yards. It should be cold Tuesday night in Athens, Ohio, but it shouldn't be windy and there is only a slight chance of snow later in the game.

Record: 211-158-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +125.32%

No plays for Monday

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Record: 211-158-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +125.32%

NFL: Sunday's play

Play: New England/Indianapolis under 58.5 -110


Time: 8:30 p.m. ET


Reasoning: This is by far the highest total either of these teams has faced this season. And scores for each team haven't averaged anywhere near this total in the overall and home/away splits. At home Indianapolis is giving up 15.0 points per game. Andrew Luck is 0-2 against the Patriots with seven INTs, and New England enters this one tied for first in the NFL in turnover margin (plus-12). Behind CBs Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, the Patriots have held their last two opponents to seven first-half points. New England hasn't had a run game since Stevan Ridley went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 6.

Record: 211-157-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +132.29%

NCAAF: Saturday's Auburn/Georgia play

Play: Auburn/Georgia under 70 -110

Time: 7:15 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is the highest total the Tigers have faced this season and by far the highest the Bulldogs have gone against. The average total for Auburn games is 61. For Georgia the figure is 56. The Tigers have the country's 29th-best rush defense and the Bulldogs are above average in stopping the run. Those rushing attacks are each team's strength, and with both squads allowing less than four yards per carry, I think the scoring pace will be quelled somewhat which will help the under's cause. The teams' combined points-allowed average is 47.3.

Record: 209-157-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +120.00% 

NCAAF: Saturday's Northwestern/Notre Dame play

Play: Northwestern/Notre Dame over 51 -105

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The last four Irish games have averaged 81.25 points. Everett Golson threw for a career-high 446 yards against Arizona State last week, but he also has committed 17 turnovers in six games, and I think that could lead to easy points for the Wildcats in this one. The same goes for Notre Dame's defense, which has recorded INTs in 12 straight contests. Northwestern's offense is run through freshman RB Justin Jackson, who was held to 35 yards last week but who averaged 123 yards over the previous four games. Notre Dame sophomore WR William Fuller has scored TDs in eight of the Irish's nine games. Two of Northwestern's best performances this season have come on the road -- a  stunning 29-6 win at Penn State and a 24-17 loss at Minnesota in a game where the teams were tied with under eight minutes left.

Record: 209-157-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +120.00%

No plays for Friday

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Record: 209-157-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +120.00%

NHL: Thursday's play

Play: Winnipeg/Carolina over 5 -134

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Reasoning: This is the lowest total the Hurricanes have faced this season. Their games average 5.5 goals and they score 0.67 more gpg at home. The 'canes have scored power-play goals in five of their last six contests and are hitting at 20%. They also give up PP goals (their penalty killing is at 78.3%). Jets captain Andrew Ladd has nine goals in 22 games against Carolina. Winnipeg has just six PP goals this season but has gone 2-for-4 twice, so it is capable. Carolina has scored three or more goals in seven of its last eight tilts.

Record: 209-156-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +126.8%

No plays for Wednesday

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Record: 209-156-8 (57.3%)
Bankroll: +126.8%

NBA: Tuesday's play

Play: Orlando +11.5 -110


Time: 7:30 p.m. ET


Reasoning: This is the most points the Magic have been spotted in a game this season. This is a good matchup for them because they shoot well (46.5%) and Toronto is allowing opponents to shooting 46.0%. Orlando is shooting 37.1% on threes and the Raptors are below average defending shots behind the arc. Toronto also is getting outrebounded by 3.5 per game. In the first meeting (on Nov. 1), the Magic led by eight in the third quarter, but the Raptors attempted 24 more free throws and they were able to pull away. Since that game Orlando is 3-1 ATS. In that first meeting Magic rookie Elfrid Payton scored 16 and dished out nine assists. Orlando won't have Victor Oladipo until next month, but it is getting solid performances from Tobias Harris and Evan Fornier (combined average of 33 points). And C Nikola Vucevic is averaging 18.6 points and 12.3 boards and he has five double-doubles in seven games.



Record: 208-156-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +120.78%

No plays for Monday

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Record: 208-156-8 (57.1%)

Bankroll: +120.78%

NFL: Sunday's plays

Play: Detroit -2.5 -120

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Miami has won three straight and it dominated San Diego last week, but it faces a sterner test going into Detroit to face a Lions team that also has won three straight and has Calvin Johnson back from an ankle injury. Detroit also is coming off of a bye and it's 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following byes. And it is 2-0 this season against Top 10 teams. The Lions have been doing it with defense, yielding the fewest points (15.8 per game) and yards (290.4 per game) in the NFL. With Johnson out they got a huge contribution from Golden Tate, who totaled 305 yards in the last two games.

Play: Atlanta -2.5 -125

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Falcons should get the cure for what has ailed them when they face a Tampa Bay team they dismantled 56-14 in Week 3. Atlanta has won nine of the last 12 meetings, and even though the Falcons have been atrocious on defense, they shouldn't get hurt too much by the league's 31st-ranked offense. Tampa Bay also stinks on defense, ranking 31st. The Buccaneers will run Luke McCown out there at QB, and he he recorded just 420 yards and two TDs (against four INTs) in the first three games of the season (all losses). McCown suffered a thumb injury in that game against Atlanta. In that game Matt Ryan completed 87.5% of his passes and put up a 155.9 QB rating. The Falcons lead the NFC in red-zone efficiency (76.5% TD rate) and they are tied with Denver for the league lead in big-play touchdowns (those of 20-plus yards).



Record: 206-156-8 (56.9%)

Bankroll: +110.47%

NCAAF: Saturday's play

Play: Baylor/Oklahoma under 73 -105

Time: Noon ET

Reasoning: Both of these teams can score, but both average far fewer points in their home/away splits. Both squads also allow fewer than 22 points per game. And while they rank No. 1 and 2 in the Big 12 in rushing offense, they also rank No. 1 and 2 in rushing defense. This is a high total any way you cut it (10-plus TDs) and it is by far the highest total the Sooners have gone against this season (average total: 57). The average total for Bears games in 2014 is 69. In last season's meeting these teams combined for 53 points.


Record: 205-156-8 (56.8%)
Bankroll: +104.62%

NBA: Friday's play

Play: Charlotte -1.5 -107

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Hornets are a good team and they should get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (ribs) back on Friday. I also expect new addition Lance Stephenson to start scoring (so far he's averaged just 6.6 ppg on 26.7% shooting). At home Charlotte is allowing opponents just 88.7 ppg. The Hornets also take care of the ball (just 12.8 turnovers per game) and they out-rebound opponents (+3.4 differential). Atlanta is getting out-rebounded by, get this, nearly nine per game. The Hawks also are horrendous from the charity stripe (68.9%). And against San Antonio on Wednesday they scored just 14 points on 21 turnovers by the Spurs.

Record: 204-156-8 (56.7%)
Bankroll: +99.04%

NBA: Thursday's 10:30 p.m. ET play

Play: Portland -2 -108

Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Dallas has won three straight, but it blew a 31-point lead against Boston on Monday and allowed the Celtics to get within one possession in the fourth quarter. On Saturday against New Orleans, the Mavericks squandered a 17-point lead. Dallas F Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) left Monday's game and is questionable for this one. Mavs G Raymond Felton is eligible to return from a four-game suspension on Thursday, but he is doubtful for this one (high-ankle sprain). Damian Lillard was just 11-for-41 from the field through the first three games, but he turned it around against Cleveland and scored 27 after hitting five three-pointers despite an abdominal strain in the Trail Blazers' 101-82 victory. Portland is allowing just 92.2 points per game (league average 98.7 ppg). Dallas is giving up 105.0 ppg. The Blazers are a great rebounding team and the Mavs are terrible on the glass.

Record: 203-154-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +105.67%

NBA: Thursday's 8 p.m. ET plays

Plays: San Antonio +6.5 -101 and SA/Houston over 198 -101

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: I expect a bombs-away game between these squads, with both teams well above the league average in shooting and the Rockets hitting 46.1% of their threes and the Spurs connecting on 38.6% of theirs. San Antonio should keep it close if not win outright since they can neutralize opponents from behind the arc (28.1% in 3-point FG percentage defense). The Spurs are old but they also are deep (returning 14 players and all five starters from last season's championship team). Houston has a thin bench and it also could be without F Terrence Jones (leg) for a second straight game. Nevertheless the Rockets are averaging 105.6 points per game and have made 10 or more three-pointers in each of their five contests. Both teams are off the charts when it comes to trying threes, as the league average in threes vs. twos is 26.2%. Houston's percentage is 43.6% and San Antonio's is 32.3%.

Record: 203-154-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +105.67%

No plays for Wednesday

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Record: 203-154-8 (56.9%)
Bankroll: +105.67%

NHL: Tuesday's plays

Plays: New Jersey -110 and St. Louis/New Jersey over 5 -120

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Reasoning: You can't blame the Blues if they are tired, because on Tuesday they will be playing their fourth game in six days and their third in four days. On top of this, their last two games ended in shootouts. As a result St. Louis likely will start backup goaltender Jake Allen. The Devils have won two straight, both in comeback-fashion. I expect some scoring on special teams, as New Jersey is converting power plays at 26.3% and only killing at 68.8%. The Blues are hitting on 21.4% of their man-advantages and are killing just 75.6% of them. Going against totals of 5 this season, the overs for these teams are a combined 5-1-5.


Record: 203-152-8 (57.2%)
Bankroll: +118.79%

NBA: Monday's play

Play: Memphis -4.5 -105

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Grizzlies have started 3-0 for the first time in their history. Here they will face a New Orleans team playing its first road game of the season. Last year the Pelicans were 12-29 on the road. Memphis has won 15 straight regular-season contests. It is allowing just 86.3 points per game and is forcing 20.3 turnovers per game. Two of the Grizzlies' wins have come on the road, including a 71-69 victory at Charlotte on Saturday. In that one Memphis held the Hornets to 36.1 percent shooting. In its two games New Orleans has shot just 41.6 percent. It won its opener against a bad Orlando team, but in its second tilt, against a good team, (Dallas) the Pelicans trailed by as many as 17 and they were outscored 62-46 in the paint. This plays to the Grizzlies' strength, as big men Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have combined to average 44.4 points and 20.4 rebounds. Gasol is shooting 58.8 percent.


Record: 202-152-8 (57.1%)
Bankroll: +112.71%