Play: N.Y. Yankees/Toronto over 8.5 -110 (McCarthy vs. Happ)
Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
Reasoning: Brandon McCarthy looked a lot more McCarthy-like in his last start when he allowed five runs in 6.1 IP. He has a 4.13 ERA on the year (including his numbers while in Arizona), and Melky Cabrera is 4-for-9 lifetime with two homers against him. McCarthy will also have to watch out for Jose Bautista, who has homered in four straight games. The Yankees shouldn't complain too much with J.A. Happ on the hill for the Blue Jays. Happ has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 2014 and he has a 6.46 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in his last three turns. Happ hasn't won since July 22 and he has allowed seven homers during that six-game winless streak. I expect Mark Teixeira, who is in a 3-for-29 slump, to bust out against the left-hander.
Happ has a 5.22 ERA in day games and McCarthy's road ERA with the Yankees is 4.26 (his home ERA is 2.91). New York scores about a run more per game vs. LH and Toronto scores a half-run more per game vs. RH. Add to this two bullpens that stink (3.85 ERA and 4.24 ERA, respectively) and an umpire (Chad Fairchild) whose games average 8.62 runs... You have the recipe for an over.
Record: 182-127-7 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +169.28%
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