Wednesday, June 11, 2014

MLB: Wednesday's 8 p.m. ET plays

Play: Miami/Texas under 8.5 -112 (Turner vs. Darvish)

Time: 8:05 p.m. ET

Reasoning: The Marlins are scoring about a half-run less per game against RH and the Rangers are scoring 1.64 fewer rpg vs. RH. Texas has never seen Jacob Turner and Yu Darvish has a 2.36 ERA. Miami has never seen Darvish and he is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in seven career interleague games. Contests with umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish have somehow averaged 10.27 runs this season. But make no mistake: he is an "under ump." From 2010 to 2013 his rpg was between 7.23 and 8.06. The unders were 71-50 (58.7%) in those games. 


Play: Arizona/Houston over 8 +100 (McCarthy vs. Keuchel)

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Reasoning: Games for both teams average well over this total both overall and in the home/away splits. Brandon McCarthy has a 5.13 ERA overall and a 6.75 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in his last three starts. Arizona is scoring nearly one run more per game vs. LH. Dallas Keuchel has lost both of his previous starts against the Diamondbacks and has a 7.20 ERA against them. Houston's bullpen is horrendous (4.73 ERA) and Arizona's relievers are shaky (3.64 ERA). David Peralta (hits in eight of nine games) and Paul Goldschmidt (10-for-25, 3 HR, 10 RBI in last seven games) have been hot.



Record: 99-69-5 (58.9%)
Bankroll: +87.7% 

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